Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: John Allen on 13 November 2008, 04:27:48 AM

Title: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: John Allen on 13 November 2008, 04:27:48 AM
Well...Its about time a thread went up for the passage of this trough system given the moisture present throughout eastern Australia.

Wednesday: Isolated thunderstorms in Western Victoria with a small chance of organisation. Scattered Cbs across the ranges with O.K LIs. In NSW looking at Bathurst region for Isolated thunderstorms. Northern Rivers chance of a late storm, SE QLD isolated thunderstorms.
My target will be lightning on the ranges NE of Melb tonight.


Thursday: Scattered Thunderstorms for western Victoria, and Scattered across the ranges, possibly severe with the shear. Plains action accross the Albury Wodonga region...low chance of organised storms. LIs down to -4 near bathurst and west of Mudgee, and for this reason im going with Thunderstorms with Moderate to high possibility of severe/organised.
Won't be chasing during the day due to cricket training.


Friday: Action begins to contract into NSW, High possibility of severe and organised storms over Mudgee region and fair chance of isolated CBs for Sydney. In my opinion i'd be pretty sure severe storms with possible supercells on the western slopes if the moisture holds given the shear and good LIs.
Likely will chase for the western slopes.

Saturday: If there was a day to chase the northern rivers this is it...unfortunately cricket prevents me.
CAPE up to 2000 over the region, LIs to -5, shear moderate. Id be even more certain of a supercell or more, with a high probability of severe weather for the region. Not sure on storm direction or topography but Id be setting myself in Armidale to get my bearing off the Cu fields. Im fairly sure that Coffs and Lismore will also see action as the storms move towards the coast.



Anyway...thats my brief and scattered forecast for this event.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jason(pato) on 13 November 2008, 07:29:18 AM
Thanks for starting this thread John. I was going to wait another day to have a go at it but you beat me to it. Saturday looks to be the pick for some action for us here in the Northern Rivers. GFS on BSCH has been pretty consistent in its CAPE forecast for the last few days, so I'm hopeful we'll see something. If any cells do get going they'll generally move in a ENE direction with maybe an isolated cell or two moving more NE'ly. There is a NE'ly at around 10kts at the surface backing to a SW'ly at close to 15kts at 700mb and a W'ly at 20kts at 500mb. Interesting to note there is a 180 deg of turning between the surface and 700mb. Overall the shear doesn't look overly strong but conditions on the day may vary from the forecasts. I'm hoping moisture isn't going to be an issue (again) as we've had some good numbers for storms recently, only to be lacking in crucial moisture. I've pulled most of these numbers off the forecast sounding on BSCH (I know its only a forecast) so its possible conditions on the day could turn out to be a lot better or a lot worse, I guess only time will tell. On another note the forecast temp for Saturday atm is 32 deg, but with the 850mb temps hovering between 18-19 deg is it possible we'll see temps exceed those forecast? If so things could turn out to be a bit more interesting.
Its been a while since I've had the opportunity to chase so I'm itching to get out and see some stormage. Got my fingers crossed we'll get a rumble or two.

Cheers Jason
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 13 November 2008, 03:01:07 PM
Localised wind damage in Melbourne's inner west:

Well there were no storms in or around Melbourne today and not much wind either - but none of that was a surprise, although the moisture and heat here today was pretty oppressive.  What was a surprise was to get home and see the news showing very localised structural roof damage to a large warehouse in Footscray, only a few km's from the city.  Of course they used the term 'mini tornado'.  Apparently brief but very strong winds mid arvo broke and tore sheets of asbestos cement roofing and wall sheets off the building and scattered asbestos debris around the area.  From the brief chopper news camera view it looked to be at least 10m2 of materials had been dislodged.  I know from my employment that AC sheet, particularly the corrogated roofing is a strong material and although it can be broken, it is unusual for this to occur due to wind, especially on a day that is not even windy!  I have searched for more details but havent found any yet.

Now I've heard of and seen powerful downbursts, microbursts and the various vortices associated with serious convection, but at this time of day all I observed to the west of the city was a mid level shallow cumulus field.  Any suggestions for what may have caused this brief event???
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 13 November 2008, 03:24:37 PM
This seems to be most likely a stronger dust devil or if there were a few cumulus around perhaps a landspout. Were any pictures taken?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 13 November 2008, 03:50:30 PM
Hi Jimmy, im not aware of any pics of the event itself and other than the news clip I saw, I cant find photos of the damage so far.  Perhaps the late news may have an update. I will keep an eye out. 
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 13 November 2008, 05:11:03 PM
Found this story on http://au.news.yahoo.com from ABC news:

A factory was evacuated when strong wind gusts tore off its roof in the Melbourne suburb of Yarraville this afternoon.

Eight panels of corrugated asbestos sheeting flew into the air and crashed to the ground in the car park and surrounding streets.

Witnesses described the winds as a "mini tornado".

Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Peter J on 14 November 2008, 04:49:04 AM
There's that rotten term again (urgh) - "mini-tornado" - just another non-cloud wind event! They do happen in this state.

Big Pete
(sic of the mini)

Apart from that......

The weather is very hot in Vic at the moment - and the cloud levels have increased this morning - I though late yesterday a storm or two might have developed - at least they tried to, but no success. Today is more likely - the humidity levels are opressive, and there is a lot more Cu about at the moment - from my vantage point at Nunawading at 6.30 this morning looking west - I did see about 5 to 6 small towers forming. Also the radar on wz is picking up storms out to Bass Strait near the Bight interchange. Also the wind here is very strong (bad fire risk) - gusting around 40-60kph.

Hopefully it doesn't rain before 5pm, so I can still get some work in (need to boost the hours).

Big Pete
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 14 November 2008, 07:04:44 AM
Hi guys,
It's great to be back online once again, and I'm broadbanding finally lol!

Looks like things may kick off weather wise for us over the next couple days, well.. at least a small chance until Tuesday, given the synoptic outlook on WZ?
The convective map shows possible storms for us tomorrow (possibly late tonight?) with the encroaching trough. I'll be ready and waiting :D

Ahh what a relief to have access to charts again!
Take care! (I now look forward to going back through the forum and viewing all the youtube links that were posted!)
Shauno
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jason(pato) on 14 November 2008, 09:30:03 AM
It now looks like we can throw Sunday into the mix now for a possible storm or two. GFS forecasting some good CAPE again throughout the region, with it being a touch better than Saturday. Looks like a nice stormy weekend coming up.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 14 November 2008, 02:09:43 PM
Well I think tomorrow is actually looking somewhat interesting. With the forecast high temps I am a little worried about moisture, we could see some rapid mixing out, ie dew points dropping like a stone when the day heats up. Having said that, the Williamtown sounding show decent moisture depth (moist in the lowest 100 mb, although dp's are a little low). Having a look at the current obs shows dp's in the 16-17 range along the coast. Shear is generally quite good in the Illawarra and South coast and more than sufficient for severe storms, including supercells. I would say if moisture holds in place there should be some nice storms. Here's the forecast sounding for Norwa plotted at 30/17-

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-34.9&lon=150.6&gribdate=2008111300&hour=06&month=11&day=14&year=2008&t=30&dp=17&mixop=usr

Maybe thats a little optimistic but well see. Also there will be the S change moving up the coast in the South Coast which may trigger something down there.

Michael
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Peter J on 14 November 2008, 03:23:38 PM
Been waiting for the storms - but yet again, they fail the eastern Melbournians.  Been less than a mm in the gauge in the last hour (8-9pm). But one thing for sure is the oppressive heat may finally be getting ready to lift - and some cooler weather is expected here for the next few days - still think storms may (optimistically?) occur overnight whilst I'm asleep.

Maybe might get some tomorrow - but i'm not counting chickens yet

(a very disappointed) Big Pete


Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 14 November 2008, 08:04:24 PM
Well Big Pete we did get storms.  I just got back from a great night of lightning photography with John Allen at a spot I found north of the airport with western views.  There was lots of lightning including some very bright CG's and some elusive crawlers.  It was great to hear thunder again!  Will post pics tomorrow.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Peter J on 15 November 2008, 05:25:03 AM
Well maybe I should never speak too soon. As of 6.30am this morning, I was greeted at my work with a beautiful crawler followed by a long rumble - plus a nice deluge of rain followed!

Will post some pics later on when I find a way of downloading them from my new phone to my computer.

(missed out on the crawler pics but....)

Big Pete
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: David C on 15 November 2008, 06:18:55 AM
Well I think tomorrow is actually looking somewhat interesting. With the forecast high temps I am a little worried about moisture, we could see some rapid mixing out, ie dew points dropping like a stone when the day heats up. Having said that, the Williamtown sounding show decent moisture depth (moist in the lowest 100 mb, although dp's are a little low). Having a look at the current obs shows dp's in the 16-17 range along the coast. Shear is generally quite good in the Illawarra and South coast and more than sufficient for severe storms, including supercells. I would say if moisture holds in place there should be some nice storms. Here's the forecast sounding for Norwa plotted at 30/17-

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-34.9&lon=150.6&gribdate=2008111300&hour=06&month=11&day=14&year=2008&t=30&dp=17&mixop=usr

Maybe thats a little optimistic but well see. Also there will be the S change moving up the coast in the South Coast which may trigger something down there.

Michael


Re moisture depth Michael, last night around 10pm, while watering in some plants, it was lovely watching the beaut moisture advection occurring overhead and was reminiscent of being in Dallas Fort Worth in early May! The first time that I have really noticed it this spring season. The dewpoints are still holding up despite temperatures soaring so I agree with supercell potential in / around the southern extent of the stronger mid-level flow. I think we might score later on in the greater metro area too.

Paul Graham msg'd suggesting that there were storms on and off through the night in Melbourne (Monash uni area).
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: David C on 15 November 2008, 09:56:47 AM
Nice split pair ~ 3:40pm with the left moving supercell heading towards Huskisson or possibly Nowra atm.

(to avoid confusion, my previous post should have said "southern extent of instability with the strong mid-level flow").


Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Mike on 15 November 2008, 10:10:53 AM
Nice pics John but from what I see they're simply out of focus?  Did you use manual focus?  More-so a topic for the photography Q&A thread...but that's my bit.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 15 November 2008, 11:32:56 AM
Supercell David ?  there has not been any warnings this arvo - though that is surprising given some of the radar returns.



Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 15 November 2008, 01:25:11 PM
The line of storms is now coming across Sydney though with most activity to the south of my location. A bit surprising it is managing so well with the strength of the seabreeze here today which normally holds them back.

Quite a few intracloud flashes and a few CGs in the distance. A shame really as it was forecast to hit after dark when I could have tried for the photos. Oh well.

Some of the storms further south seemed to develop better as they went through on the radar. The ones near me seem to have lost structure according to the radar once they left the mountains. Only a few spots of rain here so far but starting to get a little more and the radar is indicating the slightly heavier stuff isn't far away.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: TroyVR on 15 November 2008, 02:21:10 PM
(http://i99.photobucket.com/albums/l313/troyrulz007/rolace0003.jpg)

just a shot taken from my place, would of gone to westfields roof as a vantage point but id had a few and couldnt drive.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 15 November 2008, 03:36:11 PM
Hey Troy

Same problem here, had been at a reunion with peoplr I hadn't seen for 20 years in some cases since midday, so wasn't driving to look for a better vantage point! We had a few close strikes while it was still quite light, but as the storm drifted north there were a few flashes. Only one keeper but the first photo worth saving from the new camera. Just aimed and held the shutter open until I got something. This one could have done with a bit more exposure but will see what I can do with the RAW image later. A bit of a hard storm to photo as most activity was in the clouds, and the first flash I sort of caught was overexposed, then this crawler came along and was underexposed. Oh well. It's hopefully the start of lots more.

Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 15 November 2008, 03:48:14 PM
Here are some pics from late last night north of Tulla airport looking west towards Sunbury.

Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 15 November 2008, 04:32:37 PM
Hi,

Some very electrically active cells around Sydney and the Central Coast this evening. One cell passed near and over Schofields producing some punishing bolts and thunder. Unfortunately the anvil rain became a nuisance from a photography perspective so for me not many good bolts at all. But fun all the same!

---> all photos for 14 November 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/jd20081114.html)


(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1114jd05.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1114jd05.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1114jd08.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1114jd08.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1114jd09.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1114jd09.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/1114jd11.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/1114jd11.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: James on 15 November 2008, 05:10:57 PM
I managed to get to the lookout at Kurrajong and get a few pics as the storm unleashed (Right over Galston again ... I swear it has to be one of the best places in Sydney for storms).

   (http://sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-14-03jh.jpg)

 (http://sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-11-14-02jh.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Ben on 15 November 2008, 05:37:05 PM
Great shots all!!! I chased the CT's.. got a nice rfb! Saw the Sydney lightning from the backend, very impressive.. too fast to catch though!
(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3003/3028939119_def5baeb7c.jpg?v=0)
(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3215/3029772762_386127e705.jpg?v=0)
(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3140/3029773114_4fd56cd81d.jpg?v=0)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 15 November 2008, 05:41:41 PM
Hi James - awesome shots. What exposure settings are you using for those, obviously local streetlight influence is less a problem at Kurrajong looking down. But would still like to know to set myself up.

Also that one with the 2 strikes next to each other - was that one hit or two in the same frame on a time exposure? Great pic.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: pingtang on 16 November 2008, 04:11:20 AM
I've gotta go out shortly so i'll make this very brief.

I got onto a nice storm south of Nowra yesterday afternoon at appox 2:30pm. This storm spilt near Nerriga with the right mover passing through Ulladulla and the left mover through Huskission. I was 10kms north of the left mover and took some timelapse. (see below) Quality is quite ordinary unfortunately. I think it had a wall cloud at one stage,though it eventually became  shelf cloud.Very lightning active at times as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv4ZrJAtugo

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/IMG_5246edit.jpg)

Once this storm died,I headed north to Shellharbour and intercepted a line of storms. This was very lightning active with numerous close strikes.I also have video of this which i'll post later.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 16 November 2008, 04:50:55 AM
Interesting structure on the storms seen by Jimmy in his first photo and pingtang as well. That storm near huskisson looked a bit moisture startved until it started interacting with the outflow. Jimmy the front end of last nights cell had interesting structure.

I was at a friends place with Kim and could not chase but I had a feeling cells would intesify when they hit the higher dewpoints of the sydney basin and we watched a cell build as it came off the ranges just north of Penrith. It exhibited inflow charicteristics for a brief period with some inflow features before rain completely obscured them.

Regards Jeff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jason(pato) on 16 November 2008, 05:24:41 AM
Nice pics and reports guys. Well after my initial forecast earlier in the week GFS continued to back off our chances for today, making me look like a bit of a goose. However the 12z and 18z runs ( I know 18z isn't as accurate as others) have come back on board quite substantially with the 18z run showing up some quality CAPE in our general region. The forecast sounding has gone for temps of around 27/19 which yields around 1000 CAPE, but I'm fairly confident the temp will be higher than that and I replotted for 32/19 and came up with more respectable 2000 CAPE. My only concern is that the shear isn't overly spectacular in the mid levels. Still there is some decent potential there and I will be watching the radar with some interest later. MB and I are going to be probably chasing this arvo so hopefully we'll have some quality pics to add to the impressive ones on here already.

Cheers Jason
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: James on 16 November 2008, 07:33:32 AM
Hi James - awesome shots. What exposure settings are you using for those, obviously local streetlight influence is less a problem at Kurrajong looking down. But would still like to know to set myself up.

Also that one with the 2 strikes next to each other - was that one hit or two in the same frame on a time exposure? Great pic.

Richary - The settings for that photo were ISO 100, Shutter - Bulb, Aperture 7.1. I had taken a few using 6.3 aperture however they came out too bright. In regards to the lights I tried a 30 second exposure earlier however it was all washed out thanks to the lights below so I tried to keep to 15 second exposures. The two strike shot was one hit. One of them seemed to pulse longer than the other.

I stupidly left the connector for the camera to sit in the tripod at home. I ended up just sitting the camera on the tripod without any connection and the strap around my neck should it try to fall off. Not ideal but it worked.

Ben, Phil, Troy and JD - nice images and video. The scud/guster feature in your video Pingtang forms perfectly as a rainfoot kicks out to the right forcing some rapid uplift above. Looks good when you play the video in fast motion!

Some ok looking cu forming over the ranges to the west of Sydney at the moment. May get a rumble or two later again.

James
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 16 November 2008, 09:29:03 AM
Well, that nice left moving cell that the BoM  have warned looks like it has probably dropped some hail on the nrothern end of the F3. I wish I was there right now!
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Harley Pearman on 16 November 2008, 09:35:42 AM
I went out to Bathurst Friday morning taking advantage of what I saw on the GFS of 2,000 CAPE Environment for that region. Basically that region before I left seemed to be the place for thunderstorm activity at around 5 pm.

I spent the morning shopping and after lunch, I went up to the Mt Panorama Lookout and stayed at Mc Phillamy Park Lookout for a while watching the weather.

A line of thunderstorms did develop to the west and south west at around 4 pm and slowly made their way towards Bathurst. I was also testing out my little digital camera and I captured two cloud to ground lightning bolts first time ever during the day time (I need to work out how to edit the little 1 minute film clips I took). I also captured a small shelf cloud, a microburst and some interesting cloud structure and colour tones.

At 6 pm I left Mt Panorama Lookout. The storm intensified significantly around Mt Panorama with some very heavy rain plus 4 nearby solid cloud to ground lightning bolts. After that short lightning burst, there was not much more lightning.

Just east of Kelso, I drove into the core of the storm which contained heavy rain. By the time I reached Mt Lambie, the whole storm was rapidly weakening.

Through the constant rain around Mt Lambie, I saw a separate thunderstorm cell to the east around the Sydney basin with some great lightning in it but I had nowhere where I could stop and the rain proved to be a nuisance. I was too far away to get it and the rain did not help.

I had to let the Sydney storm go. Still, the main aim of the day was to catch some thunderstorm activity close to Mt Panorama and Bathurst. Now I have to learn how to edit my snippets I took.

Harley Pearman
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 16 November 2008, 10:18:50 AM
Richary - The settings for that photo were ISO 100, Shutter - Bulb, Aperture 7.1. I had taken a few using 6.3 aperture however they came out too bright. In regards to the lights I tried a 30 second exposure earlier however it was all washed out thanks to the lights below so I tried to keep to 15 second exposures. The two strike shot was one hit. One of them seemed to pulse longer than the other.

Thanks. I was mainly getting fast crawlers that weren't that bright here hence the need to up the ISO speed, certainly no pulsing ground strikes here. I wanted to keep the F stop down a bit to try and ensure the tree in the foreground (backyard) would stay in focus if something bright did hit close enough to illuminate it.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 16 November 2008, 10:23:33 AM
Well, that nice left moving cell that the BoM  have warned looks like it has probably dropped some hail on the nrothern end of the F3. I wish I was there right now!

That cell that is about to hit Maitland is certainly looking impressive on the radar. The Hunter seems to get a lot more action that Sydney lately, I am going to have to head up there for a camping weekend sometime, though if the storms are around the camping might be in the car!

EDIT: Cessnock Airport certainly got some heavy rain (or hail) briefly - 8.4mm in 4 minutes isn't a bad effort:

4:05pm  0 mm
4:08pm  1.8mm
4:12pm  10.2mm
4:30pm  17.0mm
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 16 November 2008, 02:52:18 PM
Had a great storm chase this afternoon with Rodney Wallbridge and Jason Paterson, and also Beck Armytage who we met up with at Casino. Actually had a bit of car troubles with the engine overheating but it was only an issue when driving slow :-P

Went to a lookout 5ks south of Whiporie where we watched some fairly boring early activity and slow development of new cells.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111501.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111501.jpg)

It was pretty hot and humid though fortunately a cell developed immediately west (actually virtually overhead) which kept the sun off - otherwise it would have been unbearable. This 'storm' was anviling at the altocumulus level at first before slowly building. It shot out a couple of rather close CGs before collapsing with rain. This wasn't much but it was about the same time things kicked off properly.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111502.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111502.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111503.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111503.jpg)

A couple of substantial cells dominated the rest of the afternoon and produced a beautiful show of structure and then one of the best shelf clouds I've seen in years.

We took off north when it became apparent a stronger storm was developing to our west. This pic at Whiporie:

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111504.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111504.jpg)

We then shot about 15ks north to one of few clearings along the Summerland Way between Whiporie and Casino. The structure was incredible here with powerful bolts hitting nearby. There were two strong cells: one to our immediate south which passed just east of us - and no doubt with hail, and another to the west - which is in this first photo:

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111507.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111507.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111505.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111505.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111506.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111506.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111508.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111508.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111509.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111509.jpg)

The 'hailquoise' colour of the clouds was amazing !

The rain hit so we had to head back to Casino then east along the Coraki road to try and intercept. The timing was great as we were able to view the full shelf cloud structure as its peak. Even fluked one with lightning !

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111510.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111510.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111511.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111511.jpg)

The shelf cloud soon collapsed but the storm activity persisted in the Casino area with heavy rain and some intermittent CGs.

---> all photos for 15 November 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/mb20081115.html)


Regards, Michael
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 16 November 2008, 03:57:05 PM
Hi all,
Great shots and nice TL video from the last few days guys! Great to see :D

MB: What a amazing storm to chase! I bet you guys were pretty happy to get out and chase a great cell (that looks LP to start off but seems HP in the latter shots with some more outflow dominance, no doubt), and what a shelf shot with a neat CG to boot lol! Any signs of rotation on that nice wall cloud coming from the RFB?
I bet the hail would have been marble to golf ball in size out there in places!

I didn't see much in the way of lightning today, none infact? but I was treated to a nice base that formed on a large-ish cell directly over town. This pushed East fast and had an intense rain shaft on board not long after. The temps were high at 37.2Âșc today, even with the cloud overhead!

Kindest regards,
Shauno
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jason(pato) on 16 November 2008, 04:36:35 PM
Gday All,

Had a most enjoyable afternoon of chasing with Michael, Roddy and Beck. The arvo started out relatively boring, but soon things developed nicely. Here is a selection of my favourite pics from the arvo.

Developing Base

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_3856.jpg) (http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/?action=view&current=IMG_3856.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_3862.jpg) (http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/?action=view&current=IMG_3862.jpg)

Note the "Hailquoise" colouring

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_3870.jpg) (http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/?action=view&current=IMG_3870.jpg)

Weakening Shelfy

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_3878.jpg) (http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/?action=view&current=IMG_3878.jpg)

Panorama of the weakening storm

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_pano-2.jpg) (http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/?action=view&current=pano-2.jpg)

Hope you enjoy,

Cheers Jason
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Rodney Wallbridge on 17 November 2008, 01:59:23 AM
  Gyday all, got out for a chase yesterday with Michael,Jason and Beck . Initally storms were very slow and messy high based.After a while it soon paid off to be out there instead of being at home though!! While racing ahead of cells yesterday some very steep temperature gradients were observed...24c in rain drove out of it back up to 32c. This was noteworthy as the sun had long been clouded out.Some smaller storms around the bigger cells may have helped inflow after collapse  into the others.

  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081115rwa.jpg)
  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081115rwb.jpg)
  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081115rwc.jpg)
  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081115rwd.jpg)
  (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20081115rwe.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: shanesmp on 17 November 2008, 02:45:36 AM
Absolutely stunning fellas. Thanks for sharing all your images and reports. Now I think Shane needs some more sleep, 5hrs of sleep and a big up hill hike doesn't go well (Grouse mountain hike). Hope everyone has been tops.

Shane will be back into the storm action come 17th Dec! :)

P.S. Love the curvature in that 4th pic Rods.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 17 November 2008, 04:36:44 AM
A nice photo has been posted of the storm west of Maitland 15th November. 'Leopold' who took the photo and video reports hail occurred:

http://lee.bsch.au.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_itemId=7016

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h3H8fTBIhs
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 17 November 2008, 08:49:59 AM
Did anyone see the brief left moving cell yesterday on the 15th south of Grafton? It looked interesting on the Radar and seemed to have a hook. I hope someone got some pics of it.

This afternoon looks to be full of action up around the Northern Rivers and SE Qld. There is a nice right moving cell in northern NSW as well as a very large HP looking left moving cell crossing the border now.

Regards Jeff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: enak_12 on 17 November 2008, 10:27:25 AM
Hi Jeff I watched that storm from Coffs.  I was at the beach at the time but decided to chase it anyway but it collapsed when I was watching it from Woolgoolga headland. I would have core punched it at this point to get on the north west side, the highway to Grafton turns northwest at the perfect time near there but the storm turned to crap anyway. I have no worthwhile pics to post of it for this reason either lol oh well.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 17 November 2008, 11:39:17 AM
Enak, what was the structure like before it colapsed? It certainly looked ok on radar.

Currently there is a massive cell moving north over Brisbane with the CBD in line for a direct hit. It has it's own warning with a text box saying it is a very dangerous storm! Which is something i've never seen the BoM do before. We will probably here reports of large hail from this storm allthough i'm not sure it'll be like the Sydney hailstorm last year that saw hail to 9cm and widespread major damage but you never know. The radar reflectivity is very intense according to the new doppler.

Regards Jeff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: enak_12 on 17 November 2008, 12:14:22 PM
Jeff, I couldn't really see that much there was to much rain on my side I  got a peak at a couple of decent updrafts on the back side but not much cause of the mountains as well. There was a few intense cg's out the back too.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Steven on 17 November 2008, 12:15:58 PM
I've been out and about today watching these MASSIVE updrafts go up to the south a bit earlier on. I'm now waiting for the main band which has just crossed Brisbane to head my way as it is getting quite dark now (moving fast too btw). Redcliffe webcam seems to have been knocked out.

Steven
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Steven on 17 November 2008, 12:37:21 PM
This can't be good, I'm hearing reports of tornadoes and Channel Seven's roof (!) being torn off by high winds, the view down south is not to be believed. Nearly s#&^$ myself here.

Will be shutting off in a few mins.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 17 November 2008, 01:42:49 PM
Wow, the size of that cell was/is enormous! I can just imagine the massive striated shelf cloud it must have had as it interacted with moisture from the ocean. I can't wait to see photos of this beast!
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 17 November 2008, 02:06:36 PM
I've seen an interesting image of todays storm in se qld. If it's looking south than it appears to have a nice wet RFD to the right with the notch/inflow area in the middle. Hard to tell though without being there.

http://s60.photobucket.com/albums/h15/frontera264/?action=view&current=IMGP4925.jpg
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 17 November 2008, 02:15:37 PM
I chased from Lismore - Kyogle - then over the border using the Lions Road to Rathdowny and Beaudesert - some awesome structure - will post pics very soon :)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 17 November 2008, 02:51:47 PM
Storms kicked off fairly early and quite quickly in the Northern Rivers. I chased out to south of Kyogle at first. The cell in the first photo, although not particularly photogenic was very lightning active with many clear-air CGs. The storm to the right in the background was the early stages of the main one that crossed the border. Photo times are EDT.

---> all photos for 16 November 2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/mb20081116.html)


(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111601.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111601.jpg) 12.16pm

I headed up the Lions Road north of Wiangaree. There are not many views along this drive apart from the Border Loop lookout a couple of ks south of the Queensland border. This is where the next pics were taken. A massive rain free base formed then a wall cloud - all the while bright white CGs punched into the valley and hills around the view.
 
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111602.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111602.jpg) 1.42pm

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111603.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111603.jpg) 1.48pm

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111604.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111604.jpg) 1.52pm

I left there at the last moment, then crossed into Queensland and headed for Rathdowney. The storm had lost some of its features at this point and was very much outflow dominant. New bases were forming to the north. I drove towards Beaudesert buffeted by very strong winds. The first part of this drive has lots of trees and some branches were thrown across the road. I soon made it to a clearing near Laravale I think where the structure was once again very impressive.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111605.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111605.jpg) 2.58pm

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111606.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111606.jpg) 3.01pm

I was tempted to drive into the core towards Canungra but not being in my using hail dented car I declined this time!

Instead I moved to just north of Beaudesert and watched the flanking line and powerful new updrafts at the back.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111607.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111607.jpg) 3.21pm

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111608.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111608.jpg) 3.33pm

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008111609.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008111609.jpg) 3.40pm

I met up with Chrissy nearby then decided to head home. Heavy rain fell during the drive to Rathdowney with some powerful pulsating CGs too.


Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 18 November 2008, 01:17:21 AM
Hi guys,

Perhaps we can get people to add to this thread some storm and hail videos from November 16 Brisbane storms with a description including some locality and time if available.

Redbank Plains:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=_tkFfJGN2dA

Collingwood Park:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=xfsrsfleYCA

Jimmy


MB edit - added another clip and locations.

Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 18 November 2008, 03:33:54 AM
Some weather data for yesterday. There is evidence that a tornado occurred in the Tamborine area (Gold Coast hinterland) - probably about the time of this radar image:

---> Brisbane radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/mt_stapylton128.htm)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/idr663-20081116042653.gif)


---> VIS satpic loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/20081116/satellite_loop_20081116.htm)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/20081116/200811160630.jpg)


(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008111600brisbane.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008111600brisbane.png)

Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Richary on 18 November 2008, 03:58:04 AM
Stories and pictures at

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24659338-952,00.html

In yesterday's storm tragedy, police said the 19-year-old victim and a 20-year-old friend were taking photographs in a drain behind the Westfield Chermside shopping centre when they were overwhelmed by flash flooding.

Seems like a silly place to be taking photos of a storm from.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: David C on 18 November 2008, 05:15:07 AM
Supercell David ?  there has not been any warnings this arvo - though that is surprising given some of the radar returns.





Hi Michael.
 
http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=403&numberofImages=10&dateStart=1226624400&dateFinish=1226642400

The storm developed east of Collector around 3:30UTC
I posted after looking at the 4:50 UTC frame and following the split 4:20 UTC.

Looking at this loop, I would be confident that a storm split occurred rather than a completely new updraft developing, and then the dominant storm propagates somewhat to the left of the mean 500-700 flow. After my post, the storm never quite got going to the extent that I envisaged at the time, in fact I thought it might head more towards Nowra from around 4:30UTC on.

Nevertheless, from our previous discussions that we have had on here, in strong shear a vortex couplet develops in response to the tilting of horizontal vorticity into the vertical. When the near storm environment is characterised by a straight line hodograph, the vertical pressure perturbation gradient results in renewed development to the north of the cyclonic vortex and to the south of the anticyclonic vortex. The pressure perturbation gradient also induces a downdraft between the two, which accentuates the splitting and leads to the development of two separate updrafts. From that point on, the updraft can continue to intensify and reach mesocyclone status, the rapidity of which depends depends on the environment that the storm propagates into. Cant be sure that this storm ever reached those criteria, however she gave it a pretty good shot, as per Pingtangs post.

http://twister.ou.edu/MM2005/Klemp87Review.pdf



Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 18 November 2008, 05:47:54 AM
Hi Everyone,

Just quickly I wanted to point out this radar scan from the 15th, just south of Grafton. The cell in question starts just north of Dorrigo and moves sharply left before dissipating rapidly near the coast. I know it's not exactly a huge cell but the shape on radar is amazing with possibly a very well defined hook and miniature flying eagle signature. Awesome!

Note also the sharp right mover come from Grafton just after it. What a great area for supercells.


---> Grafton radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081115/grafton128.htm)


Regards Jeff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 18 November 2008, 06:27:38 AM
Hi Jeff - saw the last part of that cell from Whiporie and it had a small LP like appearance with what looked like an inflow band but I only have a low contrast wide angle pic of the scene at 3pm which was dominated by altocumulus on the N-NW side of the storm.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: vrondes on 18 November 2008, 08:30:01 AM
A few images from the storms that went through Sydney last Friday the 14th,
 
1st one is from an isolated thundery shower before the main line hit,

(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Sydstorm14-11-08-1.jpg)

The following is from the outflow of the main storm as it mopped up the smoke from the northern suburbs bushfire burnoff,

(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/eeeeee.jpg)

and the last is a radial anvil crawler as the storm  headed off to the central coast,
Again, wonderful photos and reports from the wekends events,Cheers, Con

(http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w28/elenecon/Sydstorm14110805.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jason(pato) on 18 November 2008, 09:27:45 AM
Gday All,

Once again great photos here. I was unable to chase yesterday unfortunately due to a prior commitment. Have been talking to my cousin on messenger who lives at Middle Park just off the Centenary Hwy in Brisbanes SW, and he was saying how incredible the structure and colour were of the storm yesterday Nov 16. He has subsequently been on a damage survey around the areas of The Gap, Keperra, and Arana Hills this is what he had to say........

...........Stuart says:
the hill going from The Gap to Keperra reminded me of Mt St Helens . The trees were laying down like match sticks. The ones that remained were stripped of bark. You can see it in the background of one of the pics. That hill is usually dense with trees now it looks kinda bare......

and this

...........Stuart says:
Haven't heard reports of wind speed in that particular area but it had to be ridiculous. Almost every thing above 5m was snapped. I saw a bunch of local cars driving where the leaves were stuck on the car whilst they were doing 60 or 70km/h. Not cos of wet but like mozzies on your windscreen. Squashed into the car.........

I think this is the hill he was referring too

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1024.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1026.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1027.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1035.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1030.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1037.jpg)

I was absolutely gobsmacked at this last photo. The winds needed to snap that pole off and toss the remains into the house behind had to be pretty substantial. Its not like it was snapped off half way up, its near the base. Anyway thought some of you would like to see these images. A big thanks to my cousin Stuart Middleton for letting me share the images with you.

Cheers Jason
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: kaety on 18 November 2008, 10:39:03 AM
Hi All,

Amazing Photos everyone!!!


My storm report and a collection of everyone/news reports is posted here!

My Blog of the Storm http://kaety.blogspot.com/2008/11/big-blue-storm-sunday-16th-nov.html (http://kaety.blogspot.com/2008/11/big-blue-storm-sunday-16th-nov.html)

Kaety
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 18 November 2008, 12:52:57 PM
Hi guys,

Amazing photos by all!
What a nasty little storm system that was. Those damage shots are spectacular Jason (Pato)! And I agree with you totally about seeing a power pole snapped clean off at the base! That's just nuts!

Was this strong wind outflow or something more along the tornado lines? Do you or anybody know as yet? I heard reports of a tornado on the channel7 news this morning but I didn't catch the whereabouts of it's location (if proven to be a fair dinkum sighting)

Once again SE QLD and NE NSW were the places to be chasing!

Take care,
Shauno
*some slight showers in our area today and it appeared to be creating some storm action to our NE with a nice lower level inflow band heading into the main cell earlier on around 4:45pm.

 
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Harley Pearman on 18 November 2008, 02:05:40 PM
Reading the Brisbane Times, I came across a large photo gallery of the aftermath at
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/photogallery/2008/11/17/1226770297082.html

Most of the photos show the flash flooding and trees brought down in affected areas. However what disturbs me most is one photo showing a driver in a small car attempting to cross a heavily flooded road immediately after the thunderstorm. I wonder if the driver made it across.

Indeed in these situations the most appropriate course of action is not try to cross a flooded road.

The photos shows the extensive damage done and worth a look.

Harley Pearman
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: jamesdumar on 19 November 2008, 01:20:41 AM
An old fella from The Gap was on SBS news last night- he said " that was no storm; that was a TORNADO".
Hehe, my brother in law at the gap says the same.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: David Brodrick on 19 November 2008, 05:16:35 AM
I was watching Mt Stapylton doppler at the time and saw nothing to suggest a mesocyclone. The system was moving quite fast, I expect straight line winds did the damage. To many people, including me a few years back, any destructive winds were a 'tornado'.
Cheers,
  Dave

Edit: Obviously didn't watch the Doppler for long enough. Data posted below shows evidence of rotation.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 19 November 2008, 05:41:08 AM
I agree with you totally about seeing a power pole snapped clean off at the base! That's just nuts!

Shaun, the power pole was snapped off when it was struck by roof debris from a nearby house. A video can be seen here that explains it:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/video.aspx?videoid=5f17a16e-26e8-461b-a24c-f6b2c65d201f&tab=6

Regards,
Brad
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 19 November 2008, 05:57:53 AM
Hi Jamesdumar,

Welcome to the forum.

Quote
An old fella from The Gap was on SBS news last night- he said " that was no storm; that was a TORNADO".
Hehe, my brother in law at the gap says the same.

To make such claaims, one has to back things up with some evidence. I also see clear evidence of straight line winds. Now imagine what a reaal tornado must be like!

David, the movement of cells show a change in direction or deviation in both storm events particularly in the first cell which caused most of the desctruction. Are you referring to the existance of any mesocyclone or surface based mesocyclone specifically?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 19 November 2008, 06:54:29 AM
Managed to get hold of the 64km and Doppler radar images - check out the new loops. Doppler is quite significant for the storm hitting The Gap area (near Highvale on the BoM radar NW of Brisbane city).


---> Brisbane 64km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/mt_stapylton64.htm)

---> Brisbane 128km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/mt_stapylton128.htm)

---> Brisbane Doppler radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/mt_stapylton_doppler.htm)


About the time The Gap area was being hit hard:

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/idr664-20081116174452.gif)

The first storm hits the Canungra Lamington areas:

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/idr66i-20081116151947.gif)


Note how the winds have picked up during the day - quite impressive clockwise turning by 12z

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008111600brisbane.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008111600brisbane.png) 00z

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008111612brisbane.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008111612brisbane.png) 12z


Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 19 November 2008, 09:59:10 AM
There's no doubt that the first cell that Hit Canungra and the Gold Coast Hinterland is a Supercell. It's obvious in both the reflectivity and in the doppler scans. In fact this cell exhibits I believe by far the best structure of any cell on the day.

The cells that took out Brisbane is in fact a severe squall line that followed the supercell.

In my opinion after carefully examining all three Brisbane radars the severe damage was most likely caused by a Rear Inflow Jet interacting with the surface along a section of the squall line. In all three radar scans you can see a small notch in the vicinity of the worst affected areas at the time they were being hammered. What happens then is that a portion of the squall line accelerates faster than the rest which is likely a Line Echo Wave Pattern. More evidence for this theory is seen in the Brisbane Airport radar which shows a probable anti cyclonic book end vorticy at full maturity at 0740 utc to the north and cyclonic book end vorticy in the airports vicinity. Eventually the rest of the squall line catches up and the whole thing evolves further along the Sunshine Coast.

Rear Inflow Jets can be very powerful depending on the strength of the mid level jet but in the case of this storm 80-100 kts is very likely. Tornadoes can occur in conjunction with these features but would likely be very hard to prove without video or photos of funnel.

Of interest also is the way the squall line interacted with the outflow boundary of the earlier supercell. You can see this interaction best in the doppler scans and it could well have contributed to the strength and severity of the squall line in that area.

Btw, please feel free to shoot my theory down in flames ;-)

Regards Jeff.

Brisbane Airport Radar. Check out the bookend vorticies at 0720 utc.

---> Brisbane Airport radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20081116/brisbane_airport128.htm)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 19 November 2008, 01:41:33 PM
Hi guys,

Jeff Brislane: No arguments about that theory here! After seeing just how widespread the damage was on the news tonight it is clear that to be tornadic damage the thing would have had to have been a mile + or so wide F3-4! and so easily noticeable (even by amateur enthusiasts)

The damage is pretty constant and looks the same all over with trees down and roofs blown off completely. Not a great start to the christmas season for many of those unfortunate families.

I still cant believe that this is the worst storm in 10yrs to hit Brisbane? Surely there are a few similar large Supercellular storm events that have occurred more recently than Nov. 1998-99?

Shaun, the power pole was snapped off when it was struck by roof debris from a nearby house. A video can be seen here that explains it:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/video.aspx?videoid=5f17a16e-26e8-461b-a24c-f6b2c65d201f&tab=6

Regards,
Brad
 
Ahh okay, that easily explains it then! Cheers Brad most helpful! (I thought it possible after the fact as I remember reading the chase report by David Brodrick on the thread for the 7th - 9th Dec. 2007 where 5 concrete poles were snapped off out near Tamworth)

Kindest regards,
Shauno

*31mm in the last 24hrs to 6:30pm (18th Nov.) here and it's still fairly constant rain out there currently.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 19 November 2008, 01:59:30 PM
Hi Jeff,

Now that we consider the book end vorticity feature as a possibility, then one cannot rule out tornadic activity even if so briefly. I am not so sure what the gate to gate velocities were though and whether any TVS signatures were detected. Perhaps someone could find out from someone deep in the Bureau.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 19 November 2008, 02:14:44 PM
Deep deep deep in the BoM Jimmy :)   AC might get some better images

Shauno - I think it's the worst in Brisbane for quite some time due to the extent of the damage - certainly been plenty of other very major storms but not affecting so much property all at once.

Edit - this a is good clip from Upper Kedron

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=kwbUPNVHrOI

MB


Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 19 November 2008, 04:13:29 PM
This is an interesting feature from the initial Supercell near Mt. Tambourine. This was not from the later severe cells. I'm almost convinced that this is the real thing. It appears to be dynamic and not static.
 Shame about the crap video though.

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=U1GIiIz0Pzo
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 19 November 2008, 05:18:18 PM
This is an interesting feature from the initial Supercell near Mt. Tambourine. This was not from the later severe cells. I'm almost convinced that this is the real thing. It appears to be dynamic and not static.
 Shame about the crap video though.

Hi Jeff,

wow!  thats an awesome sight despite the crap video quality and shooting :(  I may be seeing things but is the base rotating slowly in a cyclonic motion (clockwise) while the funnel feature is rotating very slightly in an anti-cyclonic motion?????  Obviously on such a short video any movement could just be shortlived localised motion and obviously there is no visual contact with ground but I agree it appears to be a dynamic rather than static feature.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 20 November 2008, 12:04:44 AM
That latest feature looks scuddy to me. It did not seem to grab the attention of the videographer.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 20 November 2008, 02:31:00 AM
Shown below is the GFS analysis for 06z. Some rather significant shear at this time as well as triple points. The windshear was a lot stronger around 06z than either side of this time.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/2008111606wind1000.png)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/2008111606wind0925.png)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/2008111606wind0850.png)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/2008111606wind0700.png)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/2008111606wind0600.png)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/2008111606wind0500.png)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/2008111606wind0300.png)
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Steven on 20 November 2008, 04:04:57 AM
Deep deep deep in the BoM Jimmy :)   AC might get some better images

Shauno - I think it's the worst in Brisbane for quite some time due to the extent of the damage - certainly been plenty of other very major storms but not affecting so much property all at once.

Edit - this a is good clip from Upper Kedron

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=kwbUPNVHrOI

MB




If you look at around 36-38 seconds on the video, there appears to be some circular motion of wind and rain around the backyard during the gust. There was definitely some rotation happening! I have no doubt in my mind that there was weak tornadoes on the day in the F0-F1 scale. Scary stuff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: jamesdumar on 20 November 2008, 04:20:56 AM
I have not the benefit of Met science, like many of the members here- but lots to be learned on this site from you posters- thanks to Jimmy for providing the opportunity.

I grew up in Tulsa Oklahoma, and this storm damage is identical to what i have seen over there at times.
As noted- pretty hard to say without a positive visual ID of a funnel.

Often they are shrouded and invisible as a discrete entity - especially when the footprint is wide.
I have learned not to core punch in western Qld when travelling. Not easy to tell what is inside!

I am living in Inverell. and these storms are usually in the formative stage when they pass us on their way over the ridge to the coast - impressive updrafts/convection.
Shaun would have seen some debris kick up from vortex touchdowns at the Ridge - i sometimes hide behind the stone wall of my camp if it sounds close. safety glasses are a must up close!

Today and tomorrow look like producing. It is much warmer here at Inverell today.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 20 November 2008, 10:25:09 AM
Hi Jimmy,

I think that the guy filming had no idea how to video properly anyway! Terrible footage and i'm not fully convinced it is a tornado but I though the same things about it that Brad mention, probable base rotation and possible anti-cycloninc rotation of the feature.

Just out of interest the first supercell also ended in textbook fashion with a likely bow echo and the region this guy was filming could be a comma/bookend echo region from the bowing outflow dominant stage. I hope i'm not trying to make the situation fit the video though.

Regards Jeff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 20 November 2008, 10:37:17 AM
Steven, the swirling winds in that video, though impressive and obviously very strong, are by no means indicative of a tornado. For starters winds in a tornado funnel travel in one direction around the funnel and don't chop and change suddenly like this wind does. Funnels on weak tornadoes are typically 50 to 100 metres in width so you'd expect the intense wind to only change direction if the funnel crosses direcetly over the property. What we are seeing in this video are the normal vortices and eddies we see in any wind interacting with the ground only far more intense.

Regards Jeff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Carlos E on 20 November 2008, 12:25:07 PM
Deep deep deep in the BoM Jimmy :)   AC might get some better images

Shauno - I think it's the worst in Brisbane for quite some time due to the extent of the damage - certainly been plenty of other very major storms but not affecting so much property all at once.

Edit - this a is good clip from Upper Kedron

Wow, that is amazing.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 22 November 2008, 11:41:56 AM
This clip from The Gap in Brisbane is awesome - the rain rate is off the scale once the winds really hit - then big hail to finish things off !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skrnDGl1LxQ
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 22 November 2008, 02:30:29 PM
Michael,

That is incredible wind strength! I would hate to give it to estimate but we are talking 150km/h gusts at least there? What do people think?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Brad Hannon on 22 November 2008, 02:59:00 PM
Great video Michael, thanks for sharing - I just sat their gobsmacked!  Jimmy, I cant really give any great estimate of wind speed but cant help but recall the outflow from the Sth Dakota squall of June 7 2005 or that downburst we experienced when eating at Pizza Hut on one of the last evenings in the USA in 2006!  They were the best displays of sustained straight line winds i've experienced but that QLD effort may well have been even stronger towards the end of the video.  Wow.

Brad.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: shanesmp on 23 November 2008, 12:49:59 AM
Jimmy, from past experiences.... to me that looks like gusts of about 155-160km/hr. (In the second burst). Incredible and utterly breathtaking stuff!!!
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 23 November 2008, 02:14:09 AM
Well to tell you the truth, when trees are snapped so willingly, I suspect some great forcing and sudden extreme gusts. That has to be up there with the most extreme events for some years.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Macca on 24 November 2008, 05:07:00 AM
Certainly some absolutely incredible footage.  I'd estimate those winds in the 160km/h vicinity.  Very brave of the individuals videoing to continue to do so during that - i'm quite sure they didn't realise the danger they were in at the time. 

Significant amounts of debris from wind and flooding is clogging the Brisbane River at the moment and they have suspended all river ferries this weekend due to the danger of them hitting a tree or similar.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 24 November 2008, 11:30:45 AM
Wow!  :o

I would go as far as to say that the wind speed was likely gusting to 180km/h, maybe even 200km/h. Sustained wind speed could have been as high as 140 km/h average for ten minutes. Comparable to a Cat 3 cyclone. This could be one of the fastest straight line thunderstorm windspeeds ever witnessed in Australia. Bear in mind that 185 km/h is 100 knts.

I recall a severe wind event recently where Mt. Hotham was trashed by winds that reached 180km/h, I believe, and the damage there was comparable to this event.

Regards Jeff.
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Macca on 24 November 2008, 02:44:08 PM
I'm pretty sure the Mt Hotham event ticked over the 200km/h mark and I *think* that building codes in the alpine areas of Victoria and NSW are higher than that of Brisbane (given that the alpine areas get 130km/h+ winds comparatively frequently in any given year.  Also, Double Island Point scored a 196km/h gust in 2006 from a storm.

Another QLD notable include the Brisbane supercell of January 1985 which produced 185km/h (i think) at Brisbane Airport (and cricketball hail also at the airport).
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 01 December 2008, 02:16:47 PM
The QLD BoM have a report about the 16th Nov storms including some extra radar and storm tracks

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/thunderstorms/16Nov2008/

Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Harley Pearman on 01 January 2009, 01:55:54 AM
Photos of lightning taken at Bathurst 14 November 2008

I have been working on my lightning photographs while on holidays. I took these at Bathurst 14/11/2008 from Mc Phillamy Park on top of Mount Panorama, Bathurst between 5 pm and 6 pm.

I am facing south west from the mountain. Mt Panorama offered excellent views to take these shots from the passing storm cell.

Harley Pearman
Title: Re: NSW, VIC and SE QLD Storms (incl Brisbane severe storm): 12-16 Nov 2008
Post by: Colin Maitland on 07 January 2009, 12:35:25 PM
interesting video from the Brisbane Nov 16th 2008 storm.
I wonder if the kid will be confused about storms for some time.
It was a hell of an afternoon up here in Brissy during those storms.

Cheers


http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=U1GIiIz0Pzo