Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Thomas on 11 September 2008, 11:13:40 PM

Title: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 11 September 2008, 11:13:40 PM
Well, I think a new tread should be started about the possibility of storms in NSW for the Friday and extending into the weekend. GFS has consistently been forecasting instability to develop later this week but I will stick to the latest 12Z run for this discussion. Friday, looks somewhat interesting with quite good wind shear and LI's around the -3 mark. At this stage though it is really Saturday that is catching my interest. There should be some decent moisture with the deep N'ly winds and with cold air aloft LI's are forecast as low as -6. Hopefully this is not based unrealistically high surface dp's. Interestingly, a dryline is present on the 12z run in the NW of the state. Ahead of the dryline, the LCL's are pretty high so expect some high based storms with small hail to form. Here's a forecast sounding for that region-

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-29.98&lon=145.08&date=2008091306&gribdate=2008091012

Another area of interest is the South West Slopes region. 850 hPa winds are around 20-30 knots from the north. It is quite rare in Australia to see such strong N'ly winds at this level. It appears to me that there is a warm front aligned E-W associated with this deep flow of warm moist air. If this is the case we may have the chance of a few storms forming along the warm front (if there is one). Here is a forecast sounding for that area-

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-35.63&lon=146.72&date=2008091306&gribdate=2008091012

It's easy to read too much into this but there are E'ly winds in this area. This extra turning does wonders for low level shear. This is probably the region I would suggest that has a chance of severe storms forming.

Sunday, the upper level winds really start to increase but directional shear is gone as surface winds tend NW'ly. I suspect that widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will be all that results, though, hopefully I am wrong.

Anyway, spring is here and let this be the start of a great storm season,

Michael
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 12 September 2008, 01:48:13 AM
There's quite a different in the precip forecasts for Saturday afternoon between GFS and LAPS.  GFS is favouring far western NSW (later on) and SE QLD away from the coast, while LAPS certainly favours most of eastern NSW and inland S QLD.

Certainly a few interesting days coming up, and even today may see something along the coast strip in NE NSW and SE QLD - most likely evening.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 12 September 2008, 05:14:12 AM
Michael and Michael,

I have been looking with interest at the system and the good thing is the moisture profile is quite decent for this time of the year given the weak cap at 700 (0 degrees at 700hPa level). Let's hope that storms do not become too numerous but then again why whinge, a storm is a storm this early in the season and the conditions as described by Michael is quite decent for early September.

Michael B, the concept of precipitation differences is merely for the rain bands that will follow as the system drifts across I guess. I would have thought Sunday was a go when I last checked but Saturday is definitely looking a half decent day.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 12 September 2008, 03:33:34 PM
Storm cell has been almost stationary over the Tweed Heads area and just offshore for the past 90 mins. Lightning is every 10-30 seconds. Barneys Point has received 42mm in a short time. There was a report of hail at nearby Banora Point.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: enak_12 on 12 September 2008, 08:29:07 PM
Putting up some pics from last night (11'th) just a little bit of lightning this far south hoping for more storms today.

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/September%2011%202008/IMG_1745copy.jpg)

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/September%2011%202008/IMG_1746copy.jpg)
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 12 September 2008, 09:16:39 PM
Quite a surprise that storm off Tweed Heads. It actually looked rather impressive on radar for a while. Here is a the radar loop of the storm forming and staying stationary of the coast. Storms continued off the coast much longer after this as well.

---> Brisbane radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20080911/mt_stapylton128.htm)

Jimmy, earlier Sunday certainly looked the better day but now GFS is really favouring Saturday in terms of instability, still a few days out so we'll have to wait. I'm just hoping moisture can make it down to the border region in time for Saturday afternoon. We need about an 15 degree increase dew point temperature between now and then, hopefully that's not asking for too much.

Michael
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 13 September 2008, 01:50:01 AM
This first photo was at 5.30pm when cloud tops finally managed to push a bit higher. This continued on as part of the Tweed Coast storm.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091101.jpg)

Mid level cloud and the nearly full moon made the lightning pics a bit washed out looking.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091102.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091103.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091104.jpg)

The radar accumulation is interesting and pretty much matches the radar loop times above. I've seen storms stay in generally the one location for extended periods previously, but the situation last night was one of the most impressive cases.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/20080912_radar.png)

MB
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: David C on 13 September 2008, 11:17:21 AM
GFS overcooked the dewpoints for today, which contributed to the somewhat inflated convective energy progged for late afternoon (ie LI -6, CAPE 1600) in / around southwest slopes.  From tonight on, the moisture influx looks reasonably solid for a round of severe storms Saturday over a wide area of NSW. Should be interesting if those dewpoint depressions are minimised and strong low level flow is realised -- never know what might happen.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 13 September 2008, 01:04:49 PM
David,

The progged conditions look good on paper - good turning of the winds, reasonable shear, and excellent low level shear. The only negatives - the target on the GFS 00Z has shifted farther west and there is a ridging in place further NW. This should not have too much of an impact given the upper level temperatures. However the moisture is the key as David suggests.

Will be taking out Imelda and Kimberly on their first chase:)

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Rodney Wallbridge on 13 September 2008, 03:39:26 PM
Gyday all, here are a few pics from tonights thunderstorm which went past Lismore.Managed to get out to the south side of town for a pretty nice show!Spring sure is here!It was interesting watching this coming up from the south around sunset as it was allready going soft.But then i took another look and a new updraft would peak up over the others.
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080912rwaa.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080912rwbb.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080912rwa.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080912rwb.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080912rwc.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080912rwd.jpg)
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Mike on 13 September 2008, 05:13:10 PM
Finally some pics!  Some nice structure to those thunderstorms and nice to see Enak got some star trails with the long exposures!  Looking forward to any more photos guys, hope you managed all to go chasing.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Ben on 13 September 2008, 07:36:14 PM
Great stuff Mr Wallbridge!!!! Looks like a tasty storm there, even at that stage of its life! :D Can definitely see it is outflow dominant, but that upper kinda curved base structure suggests it could have exhibited a nice meso on it earlier I would say! Great pics again!
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 14 September 2008, 12:39:56 AM
Very nice structured storm - what a surprise event!

The situation for today defies belief - I mean do we believe that moisture can recover to that magnitude? Unless rain is going to occur and increase the dew points though the temperatures are going to decrease in this region. I am concerned about the cooling that exists further east of the Central West according to the models. The dew points should merely make it to say the early teens rather than the mid teens.

The models also somehow do not form an agreement. So I think it is the typical early risk chase one would anticipate in September - you head out and hope for the best!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: James on 14 September 2008, 02:17:25 AM
If a miracle happens and moisture does recover then some parts of NSW could be in for some great storms. Not often you see a forecast sounding with such nice wind shear.

(http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/13092008_06_3103.jpg)


Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Rodney Wallbridge on 14 September 2008, 02:36:42 AM
Gyday all, Dorrigo area might spawn a nice storm today...which hopefully might stay together for a visit into the Northern Rivers.  I'd like to be sitting at Tamworth today perhaps things might go really nice out that way in a band southwards towards Orange. Be interesting  to see some nice isolated storms!
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Thompson on 14 September 2008, 02:59:08 AM
As Jimmy eluded to moisture is going to be a major challenge for southern NSW - Wagga, Young, Albury, etc today (13th).

I made a post on that other forum last night where I looked at GFS's very optimistic dewpoints for 16Z yesterday ( Friday ) where they suggested 10-12C, the real observations were almost exactly half that. Transfer that to today and that 1500-2000 CAPE gets severely lacerated. However we are hoping for some magic, perhaps the better moisture further north to have been advected southwards overnight and through the day. We have some storms firing off in northern NSW this morning.

On a side note I was in a busy training course in Brisbane yesterday, but at least the plane returning to Sydney got to take off under a very weak storm (0.5 out of 10 type ). Nothing much to be seen however.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 14 September 2008, 04:14:25 AM
I was able to watch from Ballina the beautiful isolated storm come up from the Grafton area. Storm longevity, radar and visible structure when the storm got closer indicate it was supercellular for part of its five hour track. The report of golf ball sized hail in the Grafton and Ulmarra areas helps support that.

---> Grafton radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20080912/grafton128.htm)

The storm was putting out a lot of anvil crawler lightning for the 3 hours I was watching. There were not many visible CGs until it was closer and collapsing.

Click photos for larger view.

(5.40pm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091201.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091201.jpg)

A cane burn gave some interesting colours (6.20pm)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091202.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091202.jpg)

Some interesting structure.

(7.00pm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091203.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091203.jpg)

(7.15pm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091204.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091204.jpg)

(7.30pm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091205.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091205.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091206.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091206.jpg)

The lightning later on was very impressive - these are not cropped. Light rain meant I was unable to stay alongside the river when the lightning was right over Ballina.

(7.50pm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091207.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091207.jpg)

(8.10pm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091208.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091208.jpg)

(8.30pm)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091209.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091209.jpg)

regards, Michael
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Mike on 14 September 2008, 06:30:58 AM
Wonderful photos MB and thanks for posting them.  You say that the Cg activity did not come until the dying stages of the storm?  Was this a last burst of released energy from this storm as the strikes look very healthy!
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 14 September 2008, 07:31:00 AM
Hi all,
Great shots by all here! Nice lightning and sunset anvil photos MB!

Rodney W & Michael B: Any indicators to possible rotation in that unreal looking storm near Lismore? Could it have been a small SC? The structure is absolutely amazing!

Good to finally see a few nicely formed storms here and there over a few days (still with a day or so's continuity I hope)

I spotted one large and very nice looking storm cell between Walgett and Collarenerbri on Thursday evening at 5pm with nice structure, forward shearing anvil etc. I had a prior engagement so I couldn't get home to grab my camera in time? Russ was watching it also but said it soon died off and dissipated to nothing.

Missed out here yesterday with the quite active storm line between Cobar and Tibooburra dying off early on and I saw no trace of anything approaching as I watched and waited right up to 11pm. Clear sky's all the way. Earlier on in the day I thought something may have happened but the W-NW winds were gusting very strongly and I suspected that if we'd had a cell form here or close by, it would have shot past fairly rapidly!

As for today, temps are up towards 30ºc, currently stable at 29.6ºc but we are under a steady layer of what seems to be stratus and nimbostratus cloud with a frontal break to the west showing widespread cumulus towers on the rise. Humidity is only 54% but feels more like 70%? It has risen from 31% at 11am which is ok! Only some light W-NW winds blowing. I'd like to see a 20 or 30% raise in humidity but that may be wishing a little too much lol. Looks like there might be something at the back of this stratus cover in the way of upper level moisture that's feeding the strong towers?

I'll definitely keep an eye on things out here over the coming hours! :D

If any of you head on out to chase today, take care!
Shauno
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: enak_12 on 14 September 2008, 07:38:22 AM
Ah wondered about that storm in Grafton I nearly chased it but didn't because I went out last night, I would of got home to late. I went to Heritage Park late in the afternoon (between Coffs and Woolgoolga) to photograph Kangaroos that gather there and watched the back of that storm.

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/September%2012%202008/graftonsupercell.jpg)

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/Other%20pics/IMG_1831cropcopy.jpg)
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: David C on 14 September 2008, 10:01:37 AM
Gee those forecast soundings show basically dry adiabatic lapse rates up to around 600, a shallow subsidence inversion above that with extreme drying of the airmass, and then free rein for parcels all the way up to 250. Yep, moisture deprivation is the problem with 9-12 dps across the target area, but surely something has to take off! C'MON as Lleyton Hewitt would say !
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 14 September 2008, 01:33:09 PM
Upper Western. Storm Update 11th September. 2008
Hi guys,
There has been some decent storms fire up close to us (South of Walgett) these weren't small either! Two that really took off around 4pm, in a series of three heading towards Coonamble, were easily visible from here. These were at least 100k's distant. I wasn't without my doubts as to seeing a few smaller pulse storms pop up but no luck out here as yet?

There is an amazing storm line on the LT and radar between Albury, Bourke and on up towards Thargomindah (QLD). I can easily see the flashing out west from my back yard coming from the storms between here and Bourke. It's just teasing us now I think? So close yet so far! lol ;)

Winds are pushing from the N-NE currently. This is a little puzzling as the storms are pushing South fast! Makes it hard to predict whether a cell will turn or not? Still warm enough to drive the convection however little there may be. This is different from the last few nights where temps have dropped rapidly to the low 20's-high teens around 7pm. 

If the storms eventually arrive, no matter how late, Russ and I will be awaiting eagerly :)
Kind regards,
Shauno
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Mike on 14 September 2008, 02:19:17 PM
Solid structure in that photo.  Nice wedging aloft also.  Would also like to know if the storm was supercellular.  From the photos and radar it was a monster.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 15 September 2008, 03:35:22 AM
Re: the Grafton to Ballina storm 12th Sep

There are hook echoes on a number of frames, particularly 0800 to 0840UTC and possibly 0920UTC too. No doubt the hook was also present as the storm passed near and over the Grafton radar site.  There's evidence of outflow on the 0850UTC frame but the storm regrouped for a while after that.

The storm was fairly compact - perhaps into the LP end of the supercell spectrum?  A number of photos show interesting structure though I was not able to see earlier base features. You can match up the times of my photos (previous post) to the radar.

(7.12pm - cropped and enhanced)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2008091210.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2008091210.jpg)

So yes, the storm would have been a supercell.

Mike - the best lightning did happen as the storm had weakened from its supercell stage - match the radar to my photo times (UTC+10). The photo above is close to the time of the third radar image below.


Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 15 September 2008, 04:27:11 AM
Hi all,

Thanks for the info on that (now confirmed) SC storm Michael! What a great little storm to start the season for you guys! :D

I found myself up and ready to go at 2:30am with the first rumblings of thunder from 2 small cells that approached town from the N-NE. I had my suspicions that they would not be long lived given the moon was lighting things up nicely around the cells so I could see the rain cores and their pretty rapid movements easily. I watched the first CG's come down towards the Eastern edge of the first cell (seemed about 25k's away from a rough count with the thunder reaction) but as I reached for my camera the rain set in, and quite heavy for a brief period, and so I had no choice but to sit it out on my front verandah. By the time the rain core moved across us (taking all of 10mins or so) the CG's had all but stopped leaving only the odd distant crawler now and again. Not good enough to risk having my camera soaked for lol. I should say that I was only on foot so if I had to get to shelter in a hurry for any rain it would have taken too long?
The second cell skirted town just a bit further East and left no hope of getting positioned somewhere fast enough with no obstructed view to photograph it? All in all I was a little disappointed not to get shots but I very much enjoyed the brief light show none-the-less :)

We had another larger storm roll in this morning at 8am but skirted town to the West and was/is still heading South currently. Activity was sparse at around 30sec. intervals but the CG were strong for these low-ish temps. Rain has hampered any attempt at photography again with light showers still persisting now. There was no structure attached to this storm just a dark blue-ish grey appearance that doesn't make real good lightning photos! ;)

Russ is now apparently writing a letter of complaint to the BoM asking for better storms. lol!

Cheers and take care,
Shauno
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 15 September 2008, 04:42:59 AM
Hi guys,

Yesterday saw only higher based storms develop in struggling moisture. The drive was pretty good with the three of us Imelda Kim and I remaining near Forbes and enjoying the surroundings. The storm to the north was getting closer so we head towards Parkes but I abandoned that chase as the storm began to weaken. I tell you what though, the country has never been so green and it will be great if this could last into the late spring and summer months - make for some nice photographs once we get a few supercells over the plains.

Today I must say looks quite interesting with rapid destabilisation over the central NSW area by late this afternoon. There is a break in the cloud bands and if heating could occur, the observed shear could make for interesting storms by 4pm. They will be moving rapidly though. Lightning already increasing on the tracker across the Central West and South West Sloped.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 15 September 2008, 05:12:03 AM
No luck there Shauno - even with the effort of being up at that time of night - no wonder Russ is putting in a complaint :)

Wagga sounding has 65 knots NW at 850 !  - gees, no wonder the cells are flying across the state.  STW for damaging winds - no surprise there.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 15 September 2008, 11:51:19 AM
Reports of large hail from Parkes before 4pm - these VIS/lightning tracker images show some large cells in the Parkes to Peak Hill area and west of there. A number of cells are showing strong echoes even at the limit of Sydney radar.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/200809140530.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/200809140530b.jpg)
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: pingtang on 15 September 2008, 12:25:28 PM
Heres a report on yesterdays chase.

Me and a friend(lightning chaser) left for Wagga early yesterday morning. We probrably left 3hrs too early but it made the trip alot less rushed. A major accident on the Hume HWY between Yass and Jugiong forced southbound traffic on a 50km detoir via Harden and eventually back to Jugiong. We decided to continue onto Temora rather than going to Wagga. While filling up in Harden(1030am) a warm breeze was blowing from the north with hardly a cloud in the sky. Dewpoints were hovering in the 9-10c range. We continued onto Temora and grabbed some food and some scratchies. We then found some shade 10kms south of Temora with a great view to the NW and played some cricket(1230pm). Weak moisture starved towers were evident to the far NW towards Griffith but never did anything. Some weak static was evident on the AM radio,but I figured this was up towards Cobar.

Eventually(330pm) it started clouding over with some weak showers developing overhead.At this stage,the static on AM was picking up big time but we didnt know where this was. At about this time I got a call from FeralWx,he mentioned about a cell near Moss Vale so we figired this was the reason for the static.

The sky to the north had a horrible look to it,but there was definate potential to the West and South so we headed for Wagga. While driving through Junee a weak line was becoming evident to the west towards Griffith.Feral wx called again and said the line had a decent amount of lightning in it. We finially saw our first CG to the south just before reaching Wagga. We drove through Wagga and continued southwards finding a nice spot 10kms south of town with good views to the E/SE and also to the W/NW. Weak cells to the southeast contained some nice CGs but these were becoming distant. A new line to the west quickly captured our interest just on sunset when it threw out a nice CG. This line was very weak and highbased containing no structure but the CGs were quite active and of good quality.As the line moved in some quality staccatos started touching 5kms away in front of the setting sun. I got a few of these on video while my friend was lucky enough to get a photo.

Unfortunately rain kicked in ahead of the line forcing us into the car. Some great CGs were available after dark but they became very embedded making photography next to impossible. Nevertheless I managed to capture alot of quality CGs on video so im happy about that. The lightning continued for a good hour before dieing out somewhat. We left Wagga at about 8pm and headed for home. All in all,a decent chase.

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/P9138747edit.jpg)

(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/P9139015edit.jpg)
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: James on 15 September 2008, 01:06:50 PM
A few pics as the line passed through Sydney from Middle Dural. One very nice bolt from the anvil hit a good 10 or so kms from the updraft upon my arrival.
     (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-09-14-01jh.preview.jpg)  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-09-14-01jh.jpg) 

    (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-09-14-02jh.preview.jpg)  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-09-14-02jh.jpg)

Last one taken after the storm passed from Galston.

    (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-09-14-03jh.preview.jpg)  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/08-09-14-03jh.jpg)
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: wol on 15 September 2008, 06:07:55 PM


Some of the small hail near Penrith which fell as the leading edge of the front passed over.
It seemed to deteriorate as it headed east though. Some quite strong winds and heavy rain (9 ml in 10 mins).


(http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/7483/nq7s9756pf6.jpg)

(http://img361.imageshack.us/img361/4242/nq7s9769wq0.jpg)

Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Thomas on 15 September 2008, 06:50:07 PM
Well since I started this tread I must say I am relieved there were actually storms. That aside, I would say Saturday was probably the most inaccurate CAPE forecast I have ever seen from GFS. Surface dp's were forecast at around 15-17 while in reality they were around 8-10 C. This really stresses the importance on checking surface observations in addition to model output. The strong lower level shear with low LCL's and moderate CAPE that GFS was forecasting was too good to be true unfortunately. Doesn't worry me though, as selfish as it is, I wish the storm season delays until November for my arrival back into the country.
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 16 September 2008, 01:10:52 AM
Hi,

Yesterday proved to be an exciting afternoon with some rapidly developing storms. Obviously the steep lapse rates assisted in this described above. I was stuck in Sydney despite wishing I was in a position to remain out near Parkes from the previous day - but I guess that is wedding preparation stuff for you.

Anyway, I took the family out nearby to watch the storms come through and remained on the lookout until the storm neared. Given the speed of the storm I made no attempt to chase it exept to get into position to sample hailstones. That I did do and for the first time in their lives, Imelda and Kimberly saw their first hailstones. Ok they were healthy 1cm hailstones but at least they got to experience an extremely heavy downpour and hailstones as well albeit brief. The wind drove the rain near horizontal.

Rune had met us on the lookout and also got to enjoy the spectacular storm base as it approached. We met up afterwards and exchanged stories.


(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/0914jd07.jpg)

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/0914jd10.jpg)


Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Mike on 16 September 2008, 07:11:35 AM
Some angry skies from the photos posted.  Alpine peaks I hear have experienced winds of up to 120km/h!  That vigorous cold front moving through Vic is causing some havoc it appears.  Will members in NSW get any further storms firing up with the top edge of the front moving through aided by some warmer air from the NW?  I did see on the local news that you can expect some severe storms this arvo (15 sept).  A nice start to your season!
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Harley Pearman on 16 September 2008, 01:50:55 PM
Thank you for those photos Jimmy. Now I know what the late afternoon thunderstorm looked like on the outside. The storm was not very photographic where I live so I did not take any photos. However once overhead, it dropped quite a rain shower for several minutes including some small hail at first.

A person I know in Glenwood advised me that small hail fell at Glenwood and another weather enthusiast I know advised me that small hail about 0.5 mm in size also fell around Doonside for a short period as well.

A heavy rain shower ensured around Blacktown and Kings Langley and there were substantial downdrafts and leaves were being stripped from trees for several minutes.

Amazingly, I watched the thunderstorm rapidly weaken thereafter.

From 9 am 14/9/08 to 9 am 15/9/08, 14 mm of rain fell at Kings Langley (highest in Sydney), Blacktown 3 to 14 mm but that was dependant on how that late afternoon thunderstorm affected a specific locality, Seven Hills 8.7 mm, Baulkham Hills and Parramatta 9 mm, Only 3 mm fell at Box Hill and Toongabbie and 4.8 mm at Penrith.

While there were brief heavy showers after 2 pm 14/9/08, they did not produce substantial rainfalls. It was the 4.40 pm thunderstorm that produced most of the rainfall for the day where I live.

Harley Pearman
Title: RE: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 17 September 2008, 01:10:19 AM
Here's a report the local newspaper, The Northern Star, had about the storm on Friday 12th September.

Interesting reporting with the thunderstorm causing sleet apparently !

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/media/northernstar2008091502.jpg)

Title: Re: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: nmoir on 17 September 2008, 01:40:04 AM
These shots were of the sunday arvo storm taken at rooty hill and blacktown , it dumped heavy falls and then wiped itself outwell before the coast
Title: Re: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Mike on 17 September 2008, 07:28:06 AM
Ominous low base and signature NMoir in-car shot always delights. :)  Did you get any lightning from this or were you too late arriving?
Title: Re: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: nmoir on 17 September 2008, 09:23:02 AM
i saw a few bolts in the rain but it the storm quickly lost strength once it moved well into the sydney basin
Title: Re: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Shaun Galman on 17 September 2008, 09:32:34 AM
Hi guys,
So good to see such great structure and lightning shots coming from storms again :D

pingtang: That sunset CG is spectacular! I'd be very proud to have taken that! ;)

Jimmy: Looks like a pretty intense downdraft cutting into the rear base of the 2nd image! I could only imagine how nice that storm would have looked if a few CG were present from your view point!

No luck there Shauno - even with the effort of being up at that time of night - no wonder Russ is putting in a complaint :)
That's totally ok MB, still very early in the season, and I was just happy to be out watching some actual lightning for a change! :)
Hopefully things hold up on the forecast for this coming weekend, looks to be N/NE NSW, SE QLD in the firing line so far. Russ has gone to Sydney so something (severe I hope) is bound to happen now lol! Temps will be on the increases again so we'll see how the models go over the next day or two.

Take care,
Shauno

Title: Re: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 20 September 2008, 02:30:37 AM
These photos have been forwarded to us from Swan Creek (http://maps.google.com.au/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=swan+creek,+nsw&ie=UTF8&z=13) a couple of ks NE of Grafton.

Certainly a very "snowy" looking scene that the storm on 12th Sep produced. They certainly copped a barrage of small hail there.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/0912sc01.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/0912sc01.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/0912sc02.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/0912sc02.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/0912sc03.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/0912sc03.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/thumbs/2008/0912sc04.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2008/0912sc04.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW & S Qld Severe Storms: 11-14 September 2008
Post by: Mike on 20 September 2008, 03:45:37 AM
Very impressive images and does look like an alpine scene - at first glance without enlarging you could mistake it for a seaside residence and sand !

Thanks for sharing.