Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Tornado Alley Outbreaks and Severe Weather Worldwide => Topic started by: David C on 12 March 2006, 06:35:28 PM
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Hi guys,
Forget about science, if you were a betting man you'd have to put your money on some very strong tornadoes occurring on one or both of these days. These are potent upper level disturbances! So far (over the past several days) they have yielded jack squat w/r to significant tornadoes!
In anycase, what else is there to say - if storms break the cap as expected there will be some significant tornadoes tomorrow and again (even more so) on Sunday there.
Something has to give!
FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD A
DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR /MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT/...WHICH WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD CAP BREAK AS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISCRETE WITH SUBSEQUENT
ENHANCED RISK OF TORNADOES GIVEN FORECAST 200+ M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH AND
LOW LCL HEIGHTS.
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Hi David,
I recall seeing this scenario a couple of days back - good pattern setup. Apparently there was a nice supercell with flying eagle signature today in Oklahoma - Marshall county.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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:o
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To back up David's research in finding appropriate maps, here is the Storm Prediction Center's analysis and forecast discussion for the Day 1 outlook period
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN OK. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS IT MOVES NEWD ACROSS ERN OK...NW AR AND MO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING STORM COVERAGE TO QUICKLY EXPAND. A
LARGE MCS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXISTS ACROSS
THE ERN PART OF THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. THE AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
50 KT ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU TO 70 KT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS
SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE.
AS STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BOW ECHOES AND
MULTICELLS WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH LINEAR STORM CLUSTERS. THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS MO...ERN OK...WRN AR AND NE TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
EXPAND EWD AS A LARGE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND MOVES
ACROSS MO...IL AND WRN AR. A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR WITH THE STRONGER BOW ECHOES
EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
BE IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME EXTENDING NEWD FROM NRN AR ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN MO INTO THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THE BROAD WARM SECTOR
SUGGESTS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINEAR MCS
AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NEARS THE MS RIVER LATE
TONIGHT.
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Updated: Sat Mar 11 20:02:16 UTC 2006 (Day 1 outlook)
Public Severe Weather Outlook
The SPC is forecasting an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event.
My take on this is the threat for significant tornadoes (F2 to F5 tornadoes).
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi,
There is now a high risk of severe weather and tornadoes some significant across the central mid-west (Missouri, Illinois and Iowa mostly being affected). Let us hope there are no fatalities.
Here is the updated public weather statement:
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
VALID 120946Z - 121745Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MISSOURI
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS INTO THE MID SOUTH
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
A VOLATILE SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI...MID MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT THAT SEVERAL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH MAY OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI/FAR SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE FORM OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...MANY OF
WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AND LONG-LIVED. OTHER POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THESE WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING TORNADOES...ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH/LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
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Here are the graphics outlining the risk areas, the probabalistic tornado, hail and wind areas:
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Sit back and watch now - this could be major.
I think Carson's comment regarding sitting back and watching a few wedges race by will apply tomorrow :-)
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Hi,
2 PDS Tornado Watches have been issued - in other words :
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0073.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0074.html
Let's hope if storms become tornadic they don't pass through major populated areas. The fast pace of these tornadoes will make evacuation and warnings difficult to monitor for the general public. Fatalities could result!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi,
Kansas City web cam
http://www.kctv5.com/Global/story.asp?S=2611457&nav=1PuZ
One has been supplied here for a virtual chase:)
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A TVS signature on doppler radar at the moment with a large hook. A confirmed half mile wide tornado on the ground
* AT 409 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
GREEN RIDGE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEDALIA. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
MORGAN COUNTY.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
SOUTHERN PETTIS COUNTY. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING A LARGE ONE HALF MILE
WIDE TORNADO ON THE GROUND!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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That supercell has just crossed I70 just west of Columbia MO
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same storm is now in Illinois - initiated in Kansas. Has produced multiple large tornadoes and currently
AT 751 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKLIN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
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Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND
NORTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CST...
AT 759 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A HALF MILE WIDE
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF KNOB
NOSTER...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES.
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More hooks than my tackle box on the latest scan from Kansas City.
Remember it is dark there and things are happening 'right now'. Hopefully loss of life is minimal. Long track destructive tornadoes occurring while many people are in bed asleep.... not a good thought.
AT 829 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO IN
CHILHOWEE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHILHOWEE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF
WARRENSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
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Apologies for the cut and paste.
This supercell that has just gone through Springfield (IL) is an absolute monster. It will be interesting to see the stats on this one when all is said and done ie number of tornadoes and intensity - hail size, duration and distance covered. It apparently crossed the entire state of Missouri as a supercell and shows no sign of quitting -- > hence MD paste from SPC >>
SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL NEARING SPRINGFIELD IL
COULD BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 73 AS EARLY AS
03Z...THUS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE
ACROSS EASTERN IL/WESTERN INDIANA. THIS SUPERCELL...WITH A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. THE
00Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
-- 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH -- AND BAROCLINICITY IN PLACE NEAR WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
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Same storm still going full throttle.
AT 930 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.
PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
WELDON.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...LANE AND DE WITT.
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That supercell is truly amazing :) Have a read of the following about it from the SPC. I have never heard of a supercell lasting for so long :o
LEAD SUPERCELL CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME
ERN IL MOVING INTO IROQUOIS COUNTY HAS A HISTORY OF LONG TRACK
DAMAGING TORNADOES...BUT HAS RECENTLY SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND...AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS STORM INITIATED IN SERN KS AROUND 18Z...HAS
PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS AND TRAVELED ALMOST 500 MILES. IT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 35 KT AND IF IT SURVIVES...WILL
MOVE THROUGH NWRN IND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AND OUT OF WW 77 AFTER
06Z. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SRN MOST WARM FRONT.
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83 tornado reports logged on the SPC website for Sunday
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
Based on some of the damage reports it sounds as though there may be some possible F4 or perhaps even F5 damage ....but I guess that is speculation at this stage.
At 11:30 pm CDT
LATEST VWP OUT OF ST LOUIS SHOWS 70+ KT AROUND
1 KM RESULTING IN A VERY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH WITH STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 600 M2/S2...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
Now that's a low level jet!
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Hi,
This is certainly one of those unique events and it is a priviledge to have been here seeing it unfold. The tornado reports on the SPC is 104 at this point and rising. In my opinion it deserves the title super outbreak of the modern era. (Of course we have to await the final account once the SPC has revised repeated reports of the same tornadoes).
The main supercell David talks about above traversed 5 states and may become one of the longest lived supercells. Not only did it travel through 5 states from Oklahoma?, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, it travelled over 600 miles (1000km) and lasted 14 hours.
It is unfortunate that most tornadoes occurred at night or in hilly terrain and trees making them difficult to see. It was also unfortunate that the tornadoes travelled at immense speed.
If there are less fatalities, I would think that this would be a great example of the incredible warning system.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi,
The latest has this mega-supercell having traversed six states! It is now nick named the 6 state mega-storm! It began in Oklahoma near the border with Kansas and then endded up in Michigan!
The first echo was noted near Morrison, OK (Noble County) at 1726z. Last detectable echo was just north of Jackson, MI (Jackson County) at 0904z. That means this supercell tracked 690nm miles over a period of 17 hours and 38 minutes. The average heading was from 245 degrees at 39KT. ..... Robert Prentice
What an incredible event! Final tally of preliminary tornado reports is 113! The map below has changed since the time of this posting at 113)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060312_rpts.html
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060312_rpts.gif)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Truly amazing statistics. No doubt there will be heaps of new info flooding the web for some time about this outbreak and hopefully some great pics of the structure of such a storm throughout its long lifecycle. Thanks Jimmy, David and Matthew for your commentary and links throughout this thread. What a great read!
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Awesome stuff. I've been trying to catch up tonight on some of the reports and I must say I found something that left me disgusted! Sorry for the off track comment but this is unbelievable!
I didn?t get out of Omaha until 1900z due to Wal-Mart taking 3 hours to change my tires. They were cheep, $12.00 per tire for mount & balance, but so slow.
$12 for a car tyre fitted and balanced! That makes me sick!
;D
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And here's a nice comment for the animal lovers out there!
I could chase any day this week except Sunday due to work. Oh well, but I did manage to intercept the warned cell in NC IL on my way back home from work. I had to take my wife hostage to chase this thing. She did a good job and she really laughed watching a bunch of deer getting pummeled by the hail. A really good hail producer to say the least.
Remember the horses Jimmy! ;D
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http://www.twisterchasers.com/tornadoes_at_night.htm
Another night photo on the Stormteack thread http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/index.php?showtopic=10581&st=40
These were large tornadoes!
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Hi,
An update of the tornado reports for this event has revised upwards to 140 tornadoes.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara