Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Macca on 14 April 2008, 03:21:41 AM

Title: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Macca on 14 April 2008, 03:21:41 AM
Interesting (slight) variations in the models today and tomorrow.

GFS indicates storms are possible this afternoon and tomorrow (with some NICE instability forecast for tomorrow afternoon with -5 to -6 LIs) over the SE corner.

Briefly on today...GFS is going for some precip over the SE corner of QLD (which, given the inputs would have to be convective). MesoLAPS doesn't want a piece of this at all but LAPS takes half a piece as does the BoM who have gone for "afternoon shower" - somewhat of a half-way forecast but probably the right one given the uncertainty both ways. If GFS was to be right, plotting 28/15 on the GFS forecast sounding for today gives LI's of about -3 and CAPE of 900j/kg. Shear is enough (pretty nice actually) to get storms moving and maybe enough to get something briefly organised (at least enough to make it last longer than 30 mins).

Tomorrow sees the upper level temps drop 3-4C compared to today with the approach of a decent upper level trough. GFS has -5 to -6 LI's plotted over Brisbane which is fairly nice. Again, MesoLAPS doesn't want as much to do with this as GFS.

OK...i've just worked out the difference (at least for today)...GFS kicks the upper trough further N today and far enough N to have an influence on our weather here. It pushes a 2C temp drop at 500mb across the SE corner between 6z and 12z tonight as the upper trough moves in. MesoLAPS on the other hand slides the upper trough more to the ESE. Interesting difference. Hopefully GFS is correct although hard to get evidence at this stage as to which one is looking more likely.

Anyway - something to watch at least.

Macca
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: nmoir on 14 April 2008, 04:26:36 AM
 It is the 9th anniversary of that nasty supercell , some instability around this afternoon in sydney too

I spent a week covering the damage from that event , even now you can see the damage path with carful eyes from the air if you look for newish tiled roofs
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Richary on 14 April 2008, 05:08:55 AM
At the time I was working for Telstra in the city, and the next day had to go to the Paddington Exchange to change some backup tapes. I decided to walk the journey.

As I got closer to Paddo, it was obvious the damage became worse and worse. Down one side of the road every car windscreen was smashed, down the other side every rear window. And it looked like someone had taken to them all with a large ball hammer. Once at Paddington, I went up to the roof (about 6 floors high). Every tile and slate roof visible around the area was trashed.

A workmate at the time lived at Eastgardens and had just spent 18 months renovating the inside of his house, new cornices and all that. All ruined. At least he joked that now with the insurance he could pay someone to do it properly.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 14 April 2008, 06:15:47 AM
It was Wednesday 14th April 1999 - some articles are linked from here (had to cull a few old ones as the reports are now gone unfortunately)

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/990414.htm



Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 14 April 2008, 06:55:51 AM
BoM now has warning out for a few NSW districts:



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND
For people in the
METROPOLITAN,
ILLAWARRA and parts of the
HUNTER and
CENTRAL TABLELANDS Forecast Districts.


Issued at 12:23 pm Sunday, 13 April 2008.


Severe thunderstorms may produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Gosford, Sydney, Parramatta, Wollongong, Lithgow and Katoomba.


Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Macca on 14 April 2008, 07:18:43 AM
All the while I was doing my post this morning i was trying to ignore the fact that Sydney was looking pretty nice for storms (AGAIN!).  Bit hard to ignore on a day like April 14th thou as Nick and others have pointed out.  Seriously...this is the third weekend running there have been storms in Sydney.  I have seen more storms in Sydney this year, being the 2008 calander year, than I have here in Brisbane and I have spent a total of 10 days in Sydney and 94 in Brisbane. 

On a side note, some moderate showers have popped up on the ranges east of Stanthorpe!!!  COMON QLD!
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Richary on 14 April 2008, 08:13:15 AM
It certainly started building up as it got closer to me at Rydalmere, and we had quite a few close CGs and Intracloud bolts. Also some quite heavy rain from about 1pm. Only about 10mm all up though.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Macca on 14 April 2008, 09:24:06 AM
Fairly LARGE storm heading through the Hunter at the moment.  I'd suggest this would have some severe characteristics given its size, the environment is it in and the ENE'ly movement (deviating to the left) over the last hour or so.  Looks like a nice HP monster and would probably make for some nice photos if you were close to it.

Macca
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: James on 14 April 2008, 10:26:19 AM
View of the northern part of the line that developed over Hornsby. Shot taken around 2pm'ish (would have been up near Gosford). Soccer game was delayed by 30 minutes as the base forming above unleashed some hefty CG's.

Some very nice lean in the towers indicating good vertical wind shear.

    (http://sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-04-13-01jh_sm.jpg) (http://sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-04-13-01jh.jpg) 

Am off to Brisbane tomorrow so fingers crossed for some more up there.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Steven on 14 April 2008, 11:33:57 AM
While heading out this afternoon, there was some interesting towers going up around the place and to the west was quite a bit of high cloud, although I assumed these were just showers from cumulus's, nonetheless I was a little surprised to see the forecast for a possible thunderstorm, GFS predicts moderate to strong instability close to the coast, bring it on I say.

Steven
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Richary on 14 April 2008, 11:43:38 AM
The Hunter storm is looking very nasty - especially the 0730 UT image.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Steven on 14 April 2008, 11:48:50 AM
Seems to have sustained itself in the last few scans, definitely a violent core, I hope those people near Forster brace themselves.

Looks to contain large hail, heavy winds and rain and maybe even microbursts!
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: James on 14 April 2008, 03:25:40 PM
That crappy looking line teased with a sporadic CG every few minutes as it made its way from the Richmond towards Glenorie around 730pm. I persisted for 45 minutes until the rain started to fall and the CG's dried up. So what does every good storm chaser do when this happens... pack up and head home. I got as far as packing everything into the boot when all of a sudden a blinding flash filled the car. Sure enough 6 seconds later that all too familiar crack ripped through the atmosphere. In the next 2 minutes more than 10 CG's hit all around Middle Dural/Glenorie, not enough time for me to get the camera and tripod out. One hit some sort of substation and made that lovely eeirie green glow for a few seconds afterwards.

Without a tripod, sticking the camera out the window I managed to capture this. Not a bad effort if I do say so myself  ;)

    (http://sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/08-04-13-03jh.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Richary on 14 April 2008, 04:03:27 PM
Nice photo! That 2nd line of storms hit here a bit before 7pm though all the lightning action was up in the clouds rather than CGs. Another quick 15mm of rain. Certainly wasn't severe though the rain would have made driving a bit tricky.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Harley Pearman on 15 April 2008, 12:11:00 AM
Hello

Sydney Thunderstorm 13/4/2008

Heavy early morning fog over western Sydney clearing by 8 am. At 10.30 am, I was observing thunderstorm cells sitting over the Blue Mountains.

I have never seen unusual weather like this before in Autumn where fog clears and 3 hours later, thunderstorms start developing on the ranges to the west. This does not give allot of available time for daytime heating for powering thunderstorm cells. Yet, this happened.

I could not take any photos because I had to be in the city to attend the PIA Conference on climate change and urban planning and topics such as thunderstorms will be discussed.

What I noticed about the storm event of 13/4/2008 is that prior to the thunderstorm, large clusters of alt cumulus castellatus clouds pre ceeded the thunderstorm cell.

It appears the storm traversed through Sydney's west early afternoon but did not drop allot of rain. Falls of 5 mm at Blacktown, 6 mm at Penrith occurred.

However, east of Blacktown, it appears the storm intensified. Some rainfall totals were 28 mm at Granville, 23 mm at Turramurra, 28 mm at Sydney Olympic Park, 10 mm at Sydney and 16 mm at Chatswood.

I was in the city and I observed up to 12 cloud to ground lightning strikes including one on a city skyscraper. The storm was very active including significant intra cloud lightning and almost continuous thunder for a period. The storm was pre ceeded by a large lowered shelf cloud travelling NNE and stiff but cold southerly winds and then heavy rain. No hail fell. The storm cell had cleared out to sea by 1.40 pm.

A weaker thunderstorm moved through Sydney's eastern side at 7 pm bringing a further heavy shower but less lightning.

Today I looked at the rainfall figures from it and the heaviest rain occurred within the Cumberland Basin west of the CBD. I am thinking about the behaviour of this storm and my conference that I am attending and I wonder if the urban heat island effect created by the city may have played a role in intensifying the storm or rainfall over the built up area of Sydney.

This is a topic that will be covered in the conference and I will provide a discussion thread on this at a later date.

Harley Pearman
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: nmoir on 15 April 2008, 04:45:09 AM
took this in greenacre , sth west sydney at 7pm , of the cell which developed in sth west sydney and moved nth east
the cell off woollongong was very active but some developing low cloud hid most off the bolts from view.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: lollie3 on 15 April 2008, 07:59:18 AM
I see there is a thunderstorm warning out for Coolangatta. I wonder if we will get any up here at Deception Bay
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Matt Pearce on 15 April 2008, 08:03:45 AM
The storms seem to be forming along the southeasterly change as it surges northwards, so I'd think you'd have a pretty good chance of something a bit later on in the afternoon or evening lollie.

Was a pretty lightning and rain active storm across northern Sydney early yesterday afternoon but nothing visually exciting structure-wise. No hail where I was at St Ives. Very little wind also...apart from the southerly that kicked in after the storm passed off to the northeast.

The updrafts visible on the back end as the storm headed offshore from Mona Vale were pretty impressive though...very solid, indicative of the rapidly cooling mid-levels through the afternoon with the approach of the shortwave upper trough.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Steven on 15 April 2008, 10:54:51 AM
Few isolated but rather intense cells fired up today, and the good thing is that there is no other cloud to obscure the sight of the storms, so these should be very photogenic.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Macca on 15 April 2008, 11:59:03 AM
One of the storms over the SE'rn suburbs of Brisbane took on some quite nice proportions this afternoon.  I'd suggest it was supercellular for a period of about an hour where it rode northwards along the boundary of the SE'ly change which pushed up the coast.  Eventually the SE'ly kicked out ahead of the storm and killed it (just S of Brisbane CBD) but it sure looked AWESOME from here.  I have some pics from my phone which, although they aren't great quality, the storm was so nice that they'll look good anyway...hehe.

Macca
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Steven on 15 April 2008, 12:56:23 PM
That cell off Cape Moreton is giving frequent flashes, evident to my southeast, the cloudless night sky is illuminating the flashes and it looks quite spectacular, should this cell maintain strength and I will be able to capture some nice lightning shots in full view from the east once it pass by. Really an exciting event for Autumn.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: lollie3 on 15 April 2008, 02:06:43 PM
still nothing happening here, it is going around us atm
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Jason(pato) on 15 April 2008, 03:51:40 PM
Hey Everyone,

Well with the lack of activity down south of the border Rod Wallbridge and I decided to bite the bullet and head north, with the hope of curing our SDS and capturing some lightning. We eventually decided on a spot near Currumbin overlooking the ocean and what a view we were treated to. Plenty of CA lightning that had Rod and I hooting and hollering like school kids. We enjoyed the view for abour an hour and a half before the strato cumulus deck rolled in and obscured most of the best lightning. In all a trip well worth it seeing as these shots are my first CG shots on the 400d. Hope you enjoy. BTW a big thanks to Rod for driving, really appreciated.

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_1302copy.jpg) (http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1302copy.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_1294copy.jpg) (http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1294copy.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_1290copy.jpg) (http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1290copy.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_1210copy.jpg) (http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1210copy.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_1209copy.jpg) (http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1209copy.jpg)

(http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/th_IMG_1207copy.jpg) (http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/jaypat75/IMG_1207copy.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Rodney Wallbridge on 15 April 2008, 04:19:49 PM
Gyday all, well FINALLY saw some lightning tonight which was worthy to calm that SDS down a bit.Took off to coolangatta straight after work picking up Jason(Pato) and settling in at Currumbin beach just north of the surf club.Sure was a lovely display of Lightning.Thanks for a fun trip Pato!
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080414rwa.jpg)
Looking north towards Surfers Paradise and the Q1 with an Aircraft trail inbound to coolangatta.
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080414rwb.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080414rwc.jpg)
 (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20080414rwd.jpg)
Stratu Cumulus streaming in from the south
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Steven on 15 April 2008, 04:50:09 PM
Some isolated cell is making it's way up the Sunshine Coast but haven't spotted lightning visuals as of typing. It looks rather strong on radar too.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 16 April 2008, 02:56:27 AM
Nice to see a couple of active storm days mid Autumn. I was not able to view any myself but great to see photos from others here - where are yours Macca ? :)

Some weather data for the two days.

Sunday 13th April 2008

The Newcastle radar loop of the Hunter cell is certainly worth looking at. Check the Kurnell loop for the Sydney storms - it was picking up the activity better particularly as one of the severe warned storms passed over the Sydney radar resulting in a poor view of it.

---> Newcastle 128km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20080413/newcastle128.htm)

---> Kurnell 128km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20080413/kurnell128.htm)


(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008041220sydney.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008041220sydney.png) Sydney 20z

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008041305sydney.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008041305sydney.png) Sydney 05z

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008041300williamtown.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008041300williamtown.png) Williamtown 00z


Monday 14th April 2008

I've included both main Brisbane radars as the main storm of the afternoon passed over Staplyton giving a messy view of that storm. The cells were all fairly small with some hail reported but nothing severe in size reported (as of yet). Would be great to see some structure shots.

---> Mt Staplyton 128km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20080414/mt_stapylton128.htm)

---> Brisbane 128km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20080414/brisbane128.htm)


(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/thumbs/2008041400brisbane.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/soundings/2008041400brisbane.png) Brisbane 00z
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Macca on 16 April 2008, 07:35:18 AM
Hi Michael,

Will try to get my pics up this weekend (am leaving this arvo for a work trip to north QLD for 3 days).  I only have low quality mobile phone pics but the view i had from here in the CBD was pretty nice and the photos aren't too bad.  I have a few other pics I need to upload from the last few months so I might allocate a few hours on the weekend to this to get my gallery up to date.

Macca
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: James on 16 April 2008, 11:39:28 AM
I hope Macca doesn't mind however here is a copy of a mobile phone pic he took from his building in Brisbane. I was on the motorway heading towards Arcacia Ridge (sp?) at the time and was extremely impressed by the structure. Upon arriving I was greeted by cold outflow winds from the RFD and some brilliant clear air CG's popping out the back of the updraft. The flanking line on this cell extended almost 5 - 10 kms into the clear air to the NW obviously riding the boundary of outflow against the NE winds feeding in. The below shot doesnt show it but hopefully Macca may have some more.

(http://sydneystormchasers.com/files/images/14-04-08_1637.jpg)
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Macca on 18 April 2008, 05:17:26 PM
WHOA!  Thanks James!  Don't mind at all!!!  I should do that more often...lol.   I have about 6 pics of this cell from work using my phone's camera.  Like I said - not great quality but shows the structure. 

More to come on the weekend.

Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Mike on 07 October 2008, 07:55:22 AM
I was sent these images from Brendan Heffernan some time ago but had misplaced them, but I've received them again from him.  Brendan asked me through my site what it was and today I was asking Michael Bath what it could be. The images were captured on Sunday the 13th of April in the afternoon. The camera was located at Narellan Vale and was facing almost directly west. We're unsure if it was a tornado or a plume of smoke?

Comments would be appreciated so we can confirm or not.

Thanks to Brendan for allowing me to share his images.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Michael Bath on 07 October 2008, 11:45:53 AM
You can use this radar loop previously posted. The submitted photos were taken just before 5.30pm according to the EXIF data from the camera. Assuming it is the right time, the radar images around 0725 UTC correspond. The storm in question is the one developing just SW of Camden.

---> Kurnell 128km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/radar/20080413/kurnell128.htm)

Here are 100% crops of the originals.

Pic 1: 5:27:44
Pic 2: 5:28:22
Pic 3: 5:30:47

Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Brendan on 08 October 2008, 08:27:52 AM
Hi All,

I snapped these photos.  ;D

Of course, I am still kicking myself that I did not film it!
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Mike on 08 October 2008, 09:21:16 AM
For sure, Brendan!  we're just waiting for some feedback from other members regarding your photos.  Certainly created something of interest whatever it is.
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 08 October 2008, 10:38:20 AM
Hi guys,

The cloud feature is not a tornado of course - perhaps an arcus cloud - the feature is developing along the gust front. It is not too uncommon for scud to rise from the mountains into cloud bases.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Mike on 09 October 2008, 04:09:38 AM
A fairly centralised area in width for arcus?  At first I thought it was smoke - but if that's arcus cloud why is it funnel shaped and only forming in one specific locale up into the cloud base?  Do you have something similar you can show us Jimmy for comparison?
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 10 October 2008, 06:28:34 AM
Mike,

It could be smoke as well - whoever was there should be able to assist in that as I was overseas during that period and when those storms were occurring.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW / SE QLD Storms: 13-14 April 2008
Post by: David C on 10 October 2008, 07:23:36 AM
Mike,

It could be smoke as well - whoever was there should be able to assist in that as I was overseas during that period and when those storms were occurring.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

70% it's smoke.

100% sure it's not a tornado!