Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Bath on 03 April 2008, 02:25:54 AM
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Quite a significant event is unfolding over the Southeast of the country at present. The current warnings for VIC reflect the seriousness of the expected strong winds.
There should be some snowfalls tonight and into tomorrow over higher ground.
(http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/charts/2008/04/IDX0102.200804011800.gif) 5am 2/4/2008
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, MELBOURNE
AT 1932UTC 1 APRIL 2008
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREA
Situation
At 011600UTC: Developing low pressure system 40S135E [988hPa] expected to deepen further and move southeastwards. Low expected near 43S141E [980hPa] at 020001UTC, 44S143E [970hPa] at 020600UTC and 44S145E [968hPa] at 021200UTC.
Area Affected
Hurricane force winds within 150nm of low after 020600UTC.
Storm force wind warning within
38S141E/38S150E/40S150E/40S148E/47S148E/47S141E/38S141E
Gales for remaining area within 38S141E/38S160E/50S160E/50S141E/38S141E.
Forecast
North to northwesterly wind of 30/40 knots extending to the east by 020300UTC. North to northwesterly wind strengthening further to 40/55 knots in storm area after 012100UTC and reaching 55/70 knots within 150nm of low after 020600UTC. Winds gradually turning west/southwesterly at a similar strength west of low. Very rough/high seas rising very high/phenomenal in hurricane area.
Moderate/heavy swell.
Some moderation expected from the northwest overnight.
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Mike,
After looking at the sat pic - I noticed a large area of cold air is pooled behind the initial trough and change - this is the stuff the snowfalls will come from. And some areas in SE of Oz will see temps plummet below 10c tonight with the cold change - a real winter foretaste.
Big Pete
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And it is eerily dark and windy here in Mooroolbark at the moment too...
Big Pete
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So is there any chance of this system affecting eastern states?
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Well, it's already most definitely affecting Victoria, but if you're talking about NSW and QLD...yes, the winds will pick up in NSW later today and peak overnight and early tomorrow...likely to be around 10-20mm along the southwestern slopes and less than 1mm elsewhere...not likely to be any storms as it's just too dry...
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Winds in my home area have gusted to over 105kph so far. It is blowing a gale here, but no rain as of yet. The BoM reckons around 4-430pm the colder change will kick in. Going around the house here to batten down the hatches, and close the windows.
Big Pete
(getting blown away).
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I spent a lot of time fixing broken glass at work when a large shelf got blown over - missed my car by centimetres...
I took these outside work (in Blackburn) Fist pic you can see the hire car flagpoles doing a bit of bending and the second was a little air vortex over the traffic that kicked up a fair bit of dust
Came home tonight to find one of the rose bushes against the fence has ripped the fence down with it and there is a lot of tree mulching going on up and down the street.
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Hello
I read a late report in the Border Mail - Albury - Wodonga that a dust storm moved over the city of Ballarat and environs late this afternoon ahead of that cold front / change and a rain shower occurred during the dust storm resulting in mud or wet dust falling from the sky over the city.
Further:-
Bureau of Meteorology weather Observations for Melbourne for 2/4/2008 indicated that winds gusts of up to 117 KM / Hour occurred in parts of the city early this afternoon and gusts of between 90 and 105 KM / H were common, all from a northerly direction.
The winds caused blackouts affecting some 200,000 residents across the city and unfortunately there has been one fatality so far from this weather event.
I did not see allot of rain from this event and most Victorian rainfall totals up until 6 pm - 2/4/2008 were light with Melbourne City registering 4.2 mm and other suburbs registering less.
Harley Pearman
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Reports I heard early today on the radio was someone was killed on a building site by scaffolding/building collapse during the high winds. And the weather on Ch 9 tonight showed some severe dust storms in Victoria. Looking at weather observations from BoM it seems there have been pretty high winds. Forecast to hit Sydney by dawm tomorrow but they shouldn't be as strong (better not be or the job is off, supposed to be working on rooftop at the Rocks tomorrow).
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The strongest winds measured at AWS appear to be at Maatsuyker Island (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801/IDT60801.94962.shtml) on the southern coast of Tasmania. Wind gusts got up to 169km/h or 91 knots around 3am today as the pressure bottomed out at 966hPa. The pressure dropped from 1000hPa at 8am yesterday.
(http://www.BoM.GOV.AU/archive/charts/2008/04/IDX0102.200804021800.gif) 5am 3/4/2008
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Some amazing wave heights were whipped up by this low - 17 metre waves just off the West Coast of Tasmania at Cape Sorell (graph attached as the data will be gone in a couple of days):
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT65014.shtml
(http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/tas/maps/images/tas-observations-map.png)
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Hi, just a brief comment on yesterdays wind event here. I drove through the city, W and N suburbs between 1-4pm and have never experienced such strong and sustained winds in Melbourne before. The car was shaking significantly in the CBD let alone out in the open areas around Tulla airport where I watched Qantas and Virgin jets crabbing and wobbling their way into land. Luckily they predominantly had a head wind to battle rather than crosswinds. Even so I was amazed at the amount of air traffic that continued to flow throughout the arvo despite the severe winds.
My wife was driving through the Nth suburbs when a crushed drinking can flew like a frisbie into her windshield and cracked it - Doh! couldve been worse I guess.
Damage was evident everywhere on my drive as well as my (long, slow) drive home from the city last night - shredded foliage, fallen trees, rubbish and debris, power outtages, traffic light failures, train lines down, bridges closed to trucks and motorbikes, freeway signs snapped, brown dust and mud on surfaces.
Today is just a boring post-svr day in Melbourne :(
Brad.
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Plenty of news reports today of the damaging wild winds which have affected SA, VIC and notably TAS this morning.
These wind graphs are from the CSIRO at Droughty Point - which is the peninsula to the east of Hobart. Winds peaked at 95 knots !
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/hobart_speed.gif)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/maps/hobart_dir.gif)
Interactive satellite photo loops of the event.
---> Southeast Australia 03z 01/04/2008 to 02z 03/04/2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/20080401/satellite_loop_20080401.htm) (2.1mb)
---> Australia 19z 31/03/2008 to 04z 03/04/2008 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2008/satpics/20080331/satellite_loop_20080331.htm) (3.0mb)
MB
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Imagine holding a Kestral in a 95 knot gust as suggested on the 'wind graph' Michael posted.You would have to catch a plane back from New Zealand! That is quite strong from land gales.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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The wind-storm as it was identified in Melb media today (ref: Neil Mitchell 3AW 1278AM Radio), did a lot of damage to trees and powerlines accross a wide cross-section of metro-Melb. Power was still out to 60k homes as of 3pm today, nearly 15 hours after the peak wind gusts flew accross Central Vic. I worked on the coach today, and endured 5 sets of traffic lights from Forest Hill to Mulgrave along Springvale Rd that still had not been rectified (ie switched back on). Not much rain from it though - just 5mm in my raingauge at home.
Big Pete
(i had heard on the wire - peak gust at Mt Dandenong reached a staggering 147kph unconfirmed.)
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Big Pete,
147kph = 80knots approx.
Being elevated, I would be not surprised by this system. The peak gust in the Tasmanian case was 94 knots from the graph - gives you some comparison I guess. Well 94knots converts to 174km/h.
That is very strong - stronger than the microburst wind gust at Richmond in December 3 2001 - 172km/h - is this correct?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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There msut be too big a gap in the conversion of kph to knots and kph to mph. That (the 80kt winds) from memory still equates in comparison to gusts similar in strength to a Cat3 TC? (maybe Mike from Darwin might help with that?) It certainly is the strongest winds across this area (my home area) for some 8 or so years. I do recall an unconfirmed wind gust in the Yarra Valley area (50-60kms E of Melb) - Yarra Junction of 155kph from the effects of a strong but dry cold front with weather left over from a Qld TC. That is the stongest recorded gust close to home. And not one I would like to feel on a day to day basis.
Big Pete
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Pete - the Aust TC intensity scale can be seen here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/information.htm
So 170km/h or more gusts are into category three.
1 knot = 1.852 km per hr
MB
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Hello
Other media reports (Various) I came across on this weather event include:-
2 Fatalities although there was a third one indirectly related to this during the clean up operation in Melbourne.
Wind gusts of up to 132 km / h near Colac in western Victoria.
10,000 homes lost power in areas such as Goolwa and Kapunda in South Australia.
There were instance of people being blown of their feet around Melbourne.
1,200 SES repair jobs by 6 pm 2/4/2008.
Large dust storm:
A large dust storm swept into southern NSW and made it as far as Wagga Wagga. The dust storm emanated from the drought stricken Wimmera and Mallee and SW New South Wales and travelled east and south east with the front. The dust storm at at one stage stretched across Victoria through the Murrumbidgee to as far north as Wicannia. Visibility was reduced to as little as 100 metres in places.
Places like Ballarat experienced some showers during this event resulting in wet dust / mud falling carpeting the affected area in red mud.
Impact on temperatures in Sydney - 6 am to 7 am and 3 pm 3/4/2008:
In addition to what happened in Victoria, the cold change went through Sydney between 6 am and 7 am 3/4/2008. I also observed some interesting temperature differences throughout Sydney as this front came through such as:-
6 am Temperatures under a NNW wind - Some samples:
Sydney 22.7 C
International airport 22.7 C
Sydney Olympic Park 21.9 C
Bankstown 21.4C
Badgerys Creek 13.4 C (Take note what happens by 7 am).
Camden 18.8 C
Canterbury 20.5 C
Penrith 14.7 C
Richmond 17.7C
Terrey Hills 20.9C
Temperatures varied from 13C to almost 23C giving a range of almost 10C.
The cold front with its strong gusty SSW winds were howling through before 7 am and sunrise and temperature observations were:-
Sydney 21C
Sydney Airport 19C
Sydney Olympic Park 19C
Bankstown 17.9C
Badgerys Creek 15C (There was a temperature rise of almost 2C across this region).
Camden 15.2C
Canterbury 18.9C
Campbelltown 15.2C
Terrey Hills 19.3C
Temperature variations were less being 15C to 21C giving a range of around 6C.
At 3 pm, the temperature across large areas of Sydney were in the 21 to 22C degree range and therefore uniform.
The 6 am temperatures across many areas of Sydney were warmer than the daytime 3 pm temperatures.
In a large area of western Sydney, especially around the Badgerys Creek region, the temperature rose by almost 2C after the change came through from 13 to 15 degrees. Usually it is the other way around. The front stabilized temperatures to a more uniform level across the city in which they mostly fell but in some regions, the temperature increased.
The front brought strong winds but no rain but I understand did cause disruption to some flights from the airport and a school in Castle Hill was damaged.
Harley Pearman
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MB
So that makes a sea knot greater in size than a mile.
Also that is pretty intense for a bomb cyclonic low - similar to the low of '98 (the one that devastated Sydney->Hobart Yacht race)
Big Pete
(looks like the storms have gone for another season - time to hibernate)