Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Bath on 27 September 2007, 08:44:12 AM
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GFS maintains the potential for thunderstorms in NE NSW and SE QLD Thursday. Today's 00z run actually improves the instability in parts and reduces the concern of too much mid level cloud - though will see what the satpics look like in the morning. Surface moisture looks to be ok around the Northern Rivers and the Greater Brisbane area.
NSW BoM have had no mention of storms in any of their NE NSW district forecasts this week, though the QLD BoM have for SE QLD districts.
regards, Michael
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Hi guys,
Looks like a bit of storm development out behind Bourke, also a cell to the NW of us that looks like it's tracking towards us though they look like fairly short lived cells from the lacking moisture in the atmosphere?
We have a thick covering of mid level cumulus and some nice dark bases forming here and there.
I'm not willing to make any form of prediction for us here tonight as I seem to jinx myself everytime lol ;)
Cheers and take care.
Shauno
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Hi guys,
Well we just had a small squally cell pass over us. It was sparsely active and a little dangerous to photograph due to the fast (and unpredictable) cg that were seemingly everywhere and nowhere? I have a few shots here to show but couldn't catch any lightning, so I do apologise for that. Still waiting for nightfall and the next line of activity to pass over us!
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/0926sg01.jpg)
Taken on the western side of town as the cells approached us.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/0926sg02.jpg)
Taken 1km from town looking towards the West, there were quite a few fast cg around at this point so I didn't hang around long!
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/0926sg03.jpg)
Same area as picture above but looking North across the same cell.
I do have a small amount of video to go through and I will post anything that seems worthy!
Cheers guys.
Shauno
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Was just about to ask if you got anything decent there Shauno ! Radar and lightning tracker looked nice
regards, Michael
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That was a nice little squall line for outback Queensland! but at any rate, that trough is coming through fast so I'd say development is likely to occur early in the afternoon. I'd even wouldn't rule out a possibly of a squall line developing based on what we saw today with the Warrego squal line. Glad to see the new Gympie radar (which recently got a much needed upgrade) will be tested for tomorrows event.
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Looking quite good for some storms today in parts of NE NSW and SE QLD. Rain band is clearing out now and dew points are high across all of NE NSW. Be interesting to see the soundings shortly to check the depth of the surface moisture. The wind profile is not ideal and will mean storms are going to quickly head out to sea.
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Pretty disappointing throughout, only managed a few isolated (but intense) cells south of Brisbane, in fact quite intense for large hail, and I'm pretty sure there was too when there was brown on radar. But other than that, I don't much see another chance for more storms until the next time. although I did hear perhaps a slim chance for the weekend I am not sold.
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Hi Steven,
I would not say I would be disappointed at all. The situation was marginal but the trajectory indicated there was just enough in the atmosphere to produce one or two cells. That supercell was quite nice actually.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I know, it was disappointing that I didn't see it though.
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Steven,
There will be a lot of disappointments. But look at it on the bright side - somebody did and took pictures and showed a little of what the structure had.
Still let's look on the scientific side as that is what I would like to see discussed on this forum. It was not what we call a massive supercell. I just think it put up a couple of very strong pulse updrafts that allowed for a brief organised structure which is awesome.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi all,
Certainly a nice cell in Southeast Queensland yesterday. I could see the supercell from here, but only just because of the horrid haze.
The Doppler picks up the track of the cells pretty well:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070927storm_track.gif)
I've done up two interactive radar loops - the 64km one involved screen dumps as there are still no auto archives of that radar. Will do up some Doppler images soon.
Mt Staplyton 128km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070927/brisbane(mt_stapylton)128.htm)
Mt Staplyton 64km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070927/brisbane(mt_stapylton)64.htm)
MB
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Very nice loops there Michael, although I've noticed you don't animate them any more with a GIF animator.
Jimmy, the bright side is that the storm was strong throughout it's course, the dark side is, only a few isolated cells got going, but when you have been storm deprived for so long, generally even average storms are good enough, but don't take this the wrong way though, I am impressed at the photos though.
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Steven - it's much better having these interactive radar loops so you can stop/start/speed up etc as you wish.
Here's my view of the storm at 4.42pm and 5.13pm:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007092701.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2007092702.jpg)
Satpic close to the peak of the storm (going by radar) at 4.30pm local:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200709270630.jpg)
Some nice speed shear on the Brisbane soundings - even up to 25 knots at 850 hPa.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/thumbs/2007092700brisbane.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007092700brisbane.png) Brisbane 00z
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/thumbs/2007092712brisbane.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007092712brisbane.png) Brisbane 12z
I replotted GFS and it gives some clues as to why the activity was fairly isolated - with none in the Northern Rivers apart from some isolated congestus showers: the moisture was much better over the Brisbane Valley up to the eastern Downs.
Thursday 27/09/2007 06z
Instability: CAPE (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706cape.png) / Lifted Index (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706li.png)
Relative Humidity: 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706rh0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706rh0500.png) / 0600 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706rh0600.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706rh0700.png) / 0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706rh0850.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706rh1000.png)
Temperature: 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706tmp0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706tmp0500.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706tmp0700.png) / 0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706tmp0850.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706tmp1000.png)
Winds (knots): 0200 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind0200.png) / 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind0500.png) / 0600 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind0600.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind0700.png) / 0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind0850.png) / 0925 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind0925.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007092706wind1000.png)
And finally the Doppler images I saved ...
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070927d/mt_stapylton_doppler.htm
regards, Michael
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Good to see the first solid storm of spring.
Do the BoM provide actual velocity data on request, if asked, or, is there a simple algorithm we could plug data in to so as to get an estimate? Just eyeballing the storm motion, say ~40-45km/h, together with the in- and out- bounds on that doppler scan at the time the storm was probably most intense (generally sw to se of Boonah), then I'd guesstimate that the rotational velocities are only in the order of 30-60km/h (~15-30 knots) at a range of ~ 40 nm. In other-meteorological words, and putting this into perspective, this was a rather weak mesocyclone and the PPI scans reflect this with a somewhat brief duration of nice structure. Any photos of the base anywhere in/around Boonah?
Good to see the BoM excited though and hopefully this is the start of a long bust severe weather season :)
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Hi guys,
Great structure in those shots Michael! Pretty textbook looking cells, crisp anvil and what looks like a nice flanking line! Shame about the haze spoiling your view, but there will be others on more clearer days, not too far away :)
I had no luck with the second line on the 26th at around 9:30pm. It was just the odd cloud burst here and there, no lightning as far as I could tell?
If it had of waited another hour or so I would have some nicer CG shots for you all (but we can't win 'em all?). I'm eagerly awaiting the next broad trough now as the temps are on the rise again into the 30+ range and it would be great to see the moisture levels do the same! Definitely nice to see some decent storms brewing around the place!
(Thanks kindly for sorting those images also Michael!)
Take care
Shauno
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Hi Shauno, pretty disappointing here though was still good to be able to see the main storm through the haze. Dry with not a cloud in sight today !
David C - you might have to email the BoM about that. I agree the mesocyclone does not appear to be strong. There is a much stronger meso shown from one of the storms on 8th November last year but can't find the image again (on BoM radar pages somewhere)
Marty Pouwelse has a gallery and descriptions here (http://www.ozlandscapes.com/severeweather/2007-09-27/index.html)
These photos taken by Dave Sercombe:
N of Beaudesert: 01 (http://downunderchase.com/friends/dave/2007/0927ds01.jpg) 02 (http://downunderchase.com/friends/dave/2007/0927ds02.jpg) 03 (http://downunderchase.com/friends/dave/2007/0927ds03.jpg)
Logan Village: 04 (http://downunderchase.com/friends/dave/2007/0927ds04.jpg) 05 (http://downunderchase.com/friends/dave/2007/0927ds05.jpg) 06 (http://downunderchase.com/friends/dave/2007/0927ds06.jpg) 07 (http://downunderchase.com/friends/dave/2007/0927ds07.jpg)
Jonty Hall posted some photos taken from just north of Boonah looking south: 01 (http://i223.photobucket.com/albums/dd105/jonty23/P9280017a.jpg) 02 (http://i223.photobucket.com/albums/dd105/jonty23/P9280016a.jpg) 03 (http://i223.photobucket.com/albums/dd105/jonty23/P9280021a.jpg) 04 (http://i223.photobucket.com/albums/dd105/jonty23/P9280023a.jpg)
These by Neil of Kalbar (near Boonah) looking south: 01 (http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f31/bustermove/weather/IMG_1430.jpg) 02 (http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f31/bustermove/weather/IMG_1435.jpg) 03 (http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f31/bustermove/weather/IMG_1434.jpg)
Regards, Michael
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Some very nice shots of the base there, nicely separated.
Looking at the sounding, upward momentum would have come to an abrupt halt aoa 9km - there is no way those storms were going much above that, ie low-topped for that part of the world for 'warm-season' storms :) I'm assuming copious quantities of small hail were the result rather than large to giant hail?
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Don't know yet - only been one report of hail mentioned and that was from when the storm was much further downstream north of Coomera.
MB
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Some pulse storms formed around the Wide Bay Burnett region early this morning, moving a fast pace, it took me by surprise that it happened so early in the morning (6:00am) although they lasted a couple of hours, it all cleared out by about 9:00. More are possible in this area, although now nothing has got kicking, but I think moisture is too shallow, typical of spring storms.
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Hi David,
I'm assuming copious quantities of small hail were the result rather than large to giant hail?
Not so sure. Apparently, there was a media report of 5cm hail but I never heard this report - it came from a second hand source.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi all,
Just with regard to the supercell noted above, I did hear some unconfirmed reports of hail up to 7cm.
On another note, I had my first chase of the season on Saturday. A weak surface trough sat through the Wide Bay district of SE QLD and was there long enough to drag some shallow moisture inland and kick off some storms. A little upper trough helped the situation with -14 to -15C at 500mb moving into the area.
I headed N from Brisbane and was in Gympie by early afternoon but it looked too dry with the trough seemingly sitting right over/just N of town. So I headed N to Maryborough and from there I headed west towards some showers which had popped up on radar. I got as far W as Aramara before I could see what looked to be possibly the crummiest anvil I have ever seen off to my WSW. Road options are limited in this area but I headed further W before taking the Bauple - Woolooga Rd south for about 10-15km to near Gigoomgan or thereabouts where i stayed for the next hour listening to the Cats smash Port Adelaide in the footy and watching as this cell grew (ever so slowly). There was infrequent thunder the whole time but it wasn't until it hit the sea breeze that it actually started to look like a storm. It developed a nice little base and pushed out a weak guster but the most intense part was passing just to my S. I could see another cell to the SW of this one so I decided to core punch this cell and position myself for the next cell (starting to edge closer to home too...). I encountered some nice heavy rain and some gusty winds but nothing too special.
After I got through this cell, the next cell was starting to look quite good. The tops were very low (28,000ft at a guess) and the bases were realtively high (5-6k ft) but it had nice structure and looked like it would hang about for a while. I got some photos of the structure as the sun set and then headed S to get closer to it for some lightning photos. Again the roads and trees dictate where you can and can't stop for pics but I eventually found somewhere to stop when I was about 2km from the storm...I snapped on the 10-22mm wide angle and started shooting 1.5-2 second exposures and this cell just UNLEASHED right in front of me. Every 20-30 seconds a CG would explode out in front of the storm and land somewhere between 1 and 3km away from me (the pics look further as they were taken at 10mm...hehe). This little show lasted about 10 minutes - long enough for me to bag a few nice photos with enough daylight left to get some structure as well as the lightning. I was going to head S to the Kilkivan - Gympie road and head east to get in front of this cell but it went ENE and I ended up sitting to its SW as it moved off towards Tiaro (as others have mentioned). When the anvil rain stopped, I managed to score a few crawlers out of the back end.
A phone call to Anthony C/Dave S (who were also chasing) had us focusing on the new cells developing to the W of Goomeri. After some deliberation, I booted it back to the west in the hope I could find a clearing near Kilkivan before the storm got there. The twisty roads in that area are crazy for trying to keep your bearings but I managed to get into Kilkivan before the storm - just. I set up for lightning and managed to score some very nice CG's hitting the hills which sit about 1-2km W of town before the precip started - it was only light but it was annoying enough to have to stop taking pics. As luck had it yesterday, this cell weakened and moved off to the E and the rain cleared off just as the next cell in the line moved closer to Kilkivan. I ended up staying in the same spot for over half an hour taking lightning pics and listening to the deep cracks of thunder. Eventually one cell got going enough to mow over the town but not before blasting the hills with more CG's. I was feeling quite vulnerable standing in the middle of a footy oval next to two power poles...even more so when a CG hit the hills but pushed out a branch which landed in the town about 800m from me causing a spectacular green glow and taking out the town's power (there is a photo of this...hehe). Just as I was packing it in, Anthony/Dave turned up and we stayed there for another few minutes before trying to get east of the cells. We had some trouble doing this as they moved just N of the east-west aligned road so we were enveloped in precip. We had about 2 minutes at one location where it wasn't raining and there was only 1 more CG from this cell and it was quite nice.
We noticed more cells developing along the trough to the W and NW but it was starting to get late and we decided to call it a night. A quick stop in Gympie to re-fuel before heading back down the Bruce Hwy to Brisbane (~650km).
Overall, quite a successful chase. My first real chase of the 2007/08 season. I was a little worried earlier on when I was watching that one lone storm which was barely even that but true to form, patience and faith in ones forecast paid off.
Pics here… http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery/album20
Macca
(There are also some other pics from the Sunshine Coast flood event from August on my 2007/08 gallery if anyone is interested).
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Hi Macca,
Those shots are amazing! It's good to see someone capturing lightning shots so early in the season, particularly with some nice cloud structure also.
What time did you start seeing those CG? You said "after sunset" so I would guess around 7-8pm, is that right? An ideal time for Lightning photography thats for sure! :)
I think we're all praying for decent moisture content with a broad trough to show up in the next week or so? It would be nice! ;)
Cheers and take care.
Shauno
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Awesome pics! I have a couple of the storm that cruised by Coomera on 27th Sep taken from my mates place at Carrara. This storm only just missed us but put out a nice lightning show after dark out to sea.
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Oh my god, those are fantastic slavegirl23! I have never seen anything like it, your very lucky to capture the beauty of cloud formations, well done!
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Here's the radar loop for the events described in Macca's post.
Gympie 128km (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070929/gympie128.htm)
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I must say, I did spot lightning from to the north from around 8:40 to 9:30, but unfortunately we received nothing from those storms. The next day, a few isolated but weak storms developed just west of us, its anvil spread right over, I went out to have a look, and more updrafts were occurring to the S/SW but this soon collapsed, also there were strong gust winds at the same time these storms were developing, I think this wind might have been inflows. Ha ha, Slavegirl has the exact same camera as I do, isn't that a coincidence?