Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Colin Maitland on 11 August 2009, 04:21:01 AM

Title: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 11 August 2009, 04:21:01 AM
Browsing through the weeks weather yesterday and today, and spotted the chance of a storm on Wednesday for SEQ from Double Island point right down to the Northern Rivers inc Lismore. Tuesday shows NSW eastcoast around Newcastle possible storms. ( BOM  Forecast for Tuesday
Cloudy with isolated showers becoming scattered in the west with possible thunderstorms. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds.
Newcastle:   Chance shower.                  Min:    9  Max:   21 )
 


Wed. SEQ and Lismore

BOM lismore  Forecast for Wednesday
Isolated showers with possible thunderstorms. North to northwest winds.

Lismore:       Chance shower.                  Min:   10  Max:   25


Brisbane

Wednesday     Possible afternoon thunderstorm        Min 11    Max 25


Starting to dry out up here in SEQ, I am producing a bit of static electricity again from the dry air ( 1st winter in many years I haven't got a boot from touching metal after walking on carpet etc) so we could end up with a weak storm but with some good lightning displays, if it eventuates.
If the forecast pans out as shown, Brisbane will have a top of 27C on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Pretty warm for winter.
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 11 August 2009, 09:17:52 AM
I too saw that forecast looks like this for Wednesday in the northern rivers Wednesday Isolated showers with possible thunderstorms. North to northwest winds so also hoping that we will get a t-storm it would be a good day for it 26C.

storm boy
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Jason(pato) on 11 August 2009, 11:29:26 PM
Gday All,

Having a bit of a closer look at Wednesdays storm chances for NENSW/SEQLD and the setup isn't looking to bad, considering its still winter, to say the least. From the 12z GFS run from BSCH, CAPE is progged to be around the 800-1000 mark with LI's of -4.5 from temps/dp of 22.2/12.82. Replotted at 25/13 gives back respectable numbers of close to 1300 CAPE and -6.26 LI's. Shear is decent too with up to 20kt Nthlys at the surface, WNW [email protected] and WSW [email protected] Theres plenty of moisture too right up to the 350mb level, although my concern with this is that we may see more of a thundery rain mass rather than isolated and stand alone storms. CAPE of 1000+ persists after dark off the coast which may provide a nice offshore lightshow, but if it clouds over (which is highly possible) then viewing any activity could be limited. Either way its been a long time since I've seen any decent storm activity and Wednesday could bring a welcome relief to whats been an otherwise boring winter so far.

Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 12 August 2009, 02:27:25 AM
there seems to be a bit more moisture than I had thought looking at the data from Jason. Humidity has climbed a fair bit. We were sitting around low 40 but now up to 80 -90% yesterday  and looking much the same today.
 I was anticipating more of a dry thunderstorm or dry lightning to come through as the trough passes us. Not expecting much of a storm in  severity but more conducive to lightning. But now it looks more like light thundery rain.

I was hoping to try a capture some lightning shots and experiment with the settings before storm season starts. Still getting used to new camera from end of last season.

Cheers
Col





Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 12 August 2009, 12:53:17 PM
Weatherzone reported that storms over NSW this afternoon, (11/08/09), have produced the best rain in 4 months for the nations capital.
Canberra received 11.8 mm since 9 am today including a heavy fall of 5 mm in just 10 minutes shortly after lunchtime . Paddy Aicken from  WZ news said it was  " more reminiscent of Summer than Winter. " 

 Another extract from the story states:
Other totals around the southeast included 6mm at Tamworth - the best in nearly a month, and 7mm at Dubbo in the 24 hours to 9am - the best in 2 months.

The storm we are eagerly hanging out for in SEQ and Northern NSW is still expected tomorrow, WZ News states Tomorrow the trough will contract further east, triggering some afternoon and evening storms over northern NSW and southern Queensland, while maintaining rain over Tasmania, and showers for Victoria.

For me an evening light show would be very much appreciated so I can keep practicing with my camera. I still get envious at those absolutely brilliant shots produced by members on this forum, many I think are deserving of awards if they have not already.

Cheers and happy storm chasing for the up coming season everyone.

Col.
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 August 2009, 02:17:05 PM
Well it was a beautiful warm day today. Right now looking at the radar we could be in for overnight storms as the lightning tracker is going off in the north nsw area. Tomorrow will be a warm and humid day. Yes some storms might develop.

stormboy
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Harley Pearman on 12 August 2009, 02:30:56 PM
Evening thunderstorm over NW Sydney 11 August 2009

A thunderstorm over NW Sydney brought two short bursts of heavy rain across Blacktown and at least two cloud to ground lightning strikes as well as some intra cloud lightning. No wind occurred however I was surprised to see small size hail fall for between 1 and 2 minutes during the event. The hail was no larger than 5 mm in size.

Looking at the radar images, the core of it was small as it passed over Blacktown tracking from north west to south east before weakening. The hail would have fallen from the core as it passed overhead.

The rainfall plot for Sydney from the Bureau of Meteorology to 6 pm 11/8/09 shows Blacktown, Seven Hills and immediate environs receiving the greatest volume of rainfall of 6 to 7.5 mm (Rainfall from 9 am to 8 pm). It does suggest that a thunderstorm reached its full intensity in terms of rainfall over or near the general area where I live.

Incidentally this breaks the run of 129 days since the last thunderstorm which occurred on 3 April 09 over Blacktown.

Harley Pearman
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Richary on 12 August 2009, 05:07:03 PM
From here near Parramatta I saw some nice lightning coming over towards 6pm, lots of lightning in the sky but didn't spot any ground strikes. As it came over it seemed to fizzle out a bit though. A bit later some more lightning to my north from a fairly small intense cell that had tracked SE over Glenorie on the radar, and about 8pm had some nice views of a couple of cells off the coast lighting up with ICs.

The Country Energy Stormtracker also showed a bit of activity in New England as well as the South Coast, a lot more intense than what Sydney was getting.
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 13 August 2009, 09:42:15 AM
Checked soundings on ASWA at about 1 pm , showed good potential for a storm with a slim chance of it being severe. after watching a couple of storms build I started to take some shots from on top of our roof and then I should check radar etc.  SEQ /NSW has been issued a storm warning,
BOM
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
for DAMAGING WIND and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the BRISBANE CITY and parts of the LOGAN CITY, MORETON BAY, IPSWICH CITY, SOUTHERN DOWNS, SCENIC RIM, SOMERSET and REDLAND Council Areas.

Issued at 3:26 pm Wednesday, 12 August 2009.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:30 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Lowood, the NSW border and the area south of the NSW border. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east. They are forecast to affect the area southeast of Warwick, the area east of Warwick, Highvale and Samford by 4:00 pm and Strathpine, Boondall, Sandgate and Brighton by 4:30 pm.

Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.

The next warning is due to be issued by 4:30 pm.

Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Shaun Galman on 13 August 2009, 10:38:26 AM
Hi guys,
Looks like all the waiting is almost over for another year!

It's great to see triggering (and severe warned) storms already! I wonder if this spring will be as violent Supercell-wise as it was for the Eastern parts last year?

We had some initial building earlier on this morning but it soon dissipated and moved East of us. Nice to see some towers on the skyline again.

Russ reported to me today that he saw some of the lightning in Sydney (Newtown area) last night but the rain soon quashed any thoughts he had of actually getting out in it.

I'm eagerly awaiting the first storm reports and photos from this system!

Take care if chasing.
Kindest regards,
Shauno   
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 13 August 2009, 11:55:46 AM
Small storms cells in SEQ have been igniting all over places over the last few hours, but as they leave the range they have been loosing their intensity as they approach the bay. We have one cell in Brisbane right now, 5.18pm, just east of Ipswich and another larger cell nears Crows Nest that may make its way through, may get some lightning pictures tonight.

This is the warning zone at 5:18 pm. There is a band heading south east into Northern Nsw as well .
  
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 13 August 2009, 01:49:16 PM
Well some huge storms have been exploding in southeast QLD and one just finished here in Ballina.


For people in the SUNSHINE COAST and parts of the BRISBANE CITY, GYMPIE, MORETON BAY and REDLAND Council Areas.
Issued at 7:40 pm Wednesday, 12 August 2009.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 7:45 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Caloundra, the area southwest of Caloundra, Kenilworth, Yandina and southern parts of North Stradbroke Island. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Maroochydore, Noosa Heads, waters off Noosa Heads and the area northwest of Noosa Heads by 8:15 pm and the area north of Noosa Heads, Lake Cootharaba and Lake Cooloola by 8:45 pm.

stormboy
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Steven on 13 August 2009, 02:02:37 PM
No I think the radar is overestimating things somewhat. On the map we are supposedly in the "red" zone right now and I can tell you no more than 10mm fell since it began about 20 minutes ago. Lightning is quite active, but not much wind (though it was really windy this afternoon, for some strange reason).

It is certainly a pleasant sight. I happily look forward to jumping out of my seat with the loud thunder in the months to come!
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: enak_12 on 13 August 2009, 02:26:49 PM
Ahhh yes the storm season seems to be making an early start. It felt just like a spring day today and I saw a nice little storm too, I was ready for it in my usual haunt on days like this.

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_69copy.jpg)

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_91copy.jpg)


(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_115copy.jpg)

This storm had a nice little rotating updraft was really quite fast to the eye it merged with another updraft soon after which also showed signs of rotation with some little stritations and possible wall cloud? 

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_1691copy.jpg)

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_163copy.jpg)

This looks really cool in the pics when flicking through them quickly it makes a timelapse of the feature and forms by condensing under the updraft.

A light show soon followed which was an awesome sight.

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_205copy.jpg)

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_225copy.jpg)

(http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c172/enak12/August%2012%202008/20090812_251copy.jpg)

Bring on some more!

 
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: DanTheMan on 13 August 2009, 02:29:18 PM
Yea I had dark orange right over me on the radar and I got 2.4mm on my weather station and 3mm in the manual gauge.
Lightning was constantly flashing but couldn't see any bolts, never got any massive booms, but its August so I cant complain! Cant wait for this season!
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 13 August 2009, 02:52:29 PM
You could almost classify them as dry thunderstorms, at Bracken Ridge we had about a dozen drops of rain, then a fantastic lightning show from 6:45 - 8:30 pm. I took about 120 photos, but only 2 turned out . A very frustrating thing to do. I missed some absolutely brilliant vertical bolts trying to set the camera. I honestly think you need a SLR camera with a remote to keep your finger off the camera to avoid shakes.
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Kristy Norman on 13 August 2009, 03:57:42 PM
Looks like a nice early start and loving the photos, especially the offshore storm. Beautiful colours! I can't wait for it to warm up and get unstable down here! What camera are you currently using Coltan?
Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Chris. on 14 August 2009, 09:54:23 AM
Warwick Qld. 12th August 2009

Hi everyone, great day up here yesterday! Started with a small cell around 2.30 pm and continued to build over town until it left here just on dark. Some rain for the farmers and pea size hail from one of the cells that formed. There were about 4 or 5 that visibly came together just on dark and I manged to get into a position to photograph the width of it as it headed out over the range.

These are posted in order and taken within a 3 hour period as the storm built itself up and left. Most are black and white because I had no foreground light, hope that is permitted.

This was the first sign something was brewing.

Regards,
Chris.

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2437/3816342426_632687d92c_o.jpg)

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3447/3816342004_6466c2b9b3_o.jpg)

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2526/3816341714_375c00a5d5_o.jpg)

(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3546/3816341388_8ba42bd67f_o.jpg)

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2648/3815528795_21e10a5a55_o.jpg)

(http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2424/3816325541_5d2ec763bf_b.jpg)



Title: RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Steven on 14 August 2009, 11:58:38 AM
Some activity about the hinterland of the Sunshine Coast, but the bulk of it is moving rapidly toward the coast. Quite a few deep rumbles about. No rain as of yet.
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 14 August 2009, 01:00:05 PM
Watched that one go to the north of us. Tried to get some photos. Some nice lightning again.
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 14 August 2009, 01:26:34 PM
Wow I did not think that there were meant to be more storms this evening in se QLD. And yes another day where we could have another thunderstorm has been confirmed.

Monday Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Very warm northwest winds before a southeasterly change.

i am also attaching a chart showing the cape on Monday i do not know anything about these charts but here it is.
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 14 August 2009, 01:35:19 PM
the radar below shows the development of the few storm cells in SE QLD this afternoon. the first cell starts at 4:18pm it also shows the end of yesterdays cells

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 10:00 12/08/2009 to 10:00 13/08/2009 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR663/2009-08-12-10/2009-08-13-10/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR663-brisbane/2009-08-12-10/2009-08-13-10)
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Shaun Galman on 16 August 2009, 06:22:45 AM
Some seriously nice photos guys!

Kane: Those are really spectacular sunset lightning photos! I'd be overjoyed to have taken those! :D

Chris.: Love the contrast in those B&W photos! I've never really thought of doing any B&W weather work before?

Good to see some great structure about. Did the storms pack much of a punch? They looked okay on radar, nice red core's etc.
It's getting me all excited now lol. It has almost diminished my SDS ;)

Take it easy.
Shauno 
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Michael Bath on 17 August 2009, 04:17:03 AM
Shauno - there was hail reported from various cells but the radar was certainly over-cooking the situation. The largest hail report I've heard of is 2cm diameter but it was mostly small stuff.

The web version radar is misleading in these sort of setups where the storms are high based and low topped in quite cold conditions. A lot of the precip has to fall through a rather dry layer so what you get at the surface does not match what the radar indicates.

MB
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Chris. on 19 August 2009, 12:07:14 PM
Hey thanks Shauno. The conversion, in my opinion, shows the depth of tones in the cloud. Provided you don't overdo contrast and you capture the detail in your exposure, you see even more detail with the black and white. There is an option in photoshop to convert to black and white using channels, rather than a desaturated image.

The secret is to achieve the 'tonal range' in the conversion. Then you see the detail. Thanks again mate!
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Mike on 22 August 2009, 06:59:12 AM
Nice latter stage images there, Chris.  The B&W do look nice and for me at least they do give nice contrasts as opposed to the color variety!  MB, so the reflectivity of the radar image gives a false view of what is actually hitting the ground?  How interesting.  I guess in reality it is in fact detecting what's in the storm and not recording what's on the ground per se.  This may be something worth experimenting with whilst out chasing.
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Colin Maitland on 22 August 2009, 09:03:16 AM
I was under the impression that the radar detects the estimated rainfall intensity within the cloud not what is falling,  BOM states regarding radar readings "that The radar reflectivity is strongly dependent on the diameter of raindrops in the cloud not the amount of rain drops and therefore rainfall rates."

I think what we saw in those storms can be found in an article called Dry lightning and Dry Microbursts.
  http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_13021.html (http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_13021.html)

Due to SEQ heating up, I thought we would see some early storms build, but due to the low humidity at this time of year I didnt expect much rainfall, thus leading to virga in some areas and just a few drops or a light shower in others places, egs Dayboro. Usually we have brilliant lightning storms late August very early September.

I thought I would clarrify "Virga in some areas and a few drops in others," this was also due to the fact that we had several storms cells build through out the afternoon, some had no rainfall while others just a few drops or a light shower.

Cheers

Col
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Shaun Galman on 22 August 2009, 12:23:04 PM
Hi guys,

Thanks very much for the info all!
It interesting that I've never really thought of the radar in that respect? Always just assumed it was an overall grab (if you will) of current rainfall conditions and severity, much as Mike said above. I will now pay attention to any similarities that I witness during a weather event, though we are right on the outer edge of the Moree radar which is not too helpful for us.

Really wish the bureau would place an installation out near Bourke or Tibooburra at some point.

I wonder if satellites are capable of piercing into clouds and detecting rain like the ground based installations do? Surely the capabilities are there. It's got to be more handy and reliable than current limited ground based technology. The Moree radar goes missing every time they have a storm overhead lol. That can be frustrating when I notice a large cell tracking towards us on the edge of the radar range then I lose all distance and arrival time info.

Kindest regards,
Shauno     
Title: Re: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
Post by: Mike on 22 August 2009, 09:03:59 PM
That's why we're storm chasers and not radar chasers, Shauno!  

Interpreting radar is difficult at the best of times and we can only go on what BoM supply.  The advantage of having Doppler at least nowadays for most Oz regions is that we can chase by wind profiles as well as viewing the standard radar to assist...but there's nothing like ending up with a bust because we were on the wrong side of the storm to begin with!