Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Jeff Brislane on 13 June 2007, 04:17:11 PM
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Wow, Just when we thought the last East Coast Low last week was enough GFS is strongly suggesting another such event with the next cold front that's hitting Tasmania now. It's forcasting this next upper trough to leave another cold pool over N.S.W. again only this time it looks like it will trigger a surface low that will affect the East Coast from Sydney South, however there is still a chance the Hunter could get another heavy rain even within day's! This is unbelievable when you consider how bad the recent El-Nino was.
The BoM is keeping very tight lipped about the potential for more heavy rain and flooding as this stage but that's not unusual considering that they are not very good at informing the public anyway when it comes to severe weather. Take for instance the fact that GFS is suggesting over Thursday night the possiblity of up to 40cm of snow over the Alps, yet the BoM forcast is for only snow showers!
Anyway let's hope it stays south of the Hunter but at the same time i'd love it to hit Sydney and put more in the Dams.
Jeff.
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Hi Jeff, GFS has been latching on this scenario for a several days only to downgrade the totals in the latest run (00z). Nevertheless, some solid falls 72-hour falls predicted atm. Let's hope this comes off! I also hope we can get some pea-shooter thunderstorms tomorrow with the cold mid-levels aroun Sydney.
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Just checked the models GFS 00Z and it looks quite good. The storms and rain will move inland so I will not be surprised that waterspouts will occur - I am never able to get to the coast for these events unfortanately. Hail drifts are also likely with strong storms.
Of course the main talking point will be the storms and rain heading for the catchment.
To be honest, I never got the impression that the previous low cleared properly anyway. This to me always indicated something else was on the way.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Latest indicators are for more heavy rain in the lower Hunter by Friday so it could go either way atm. Tomorrow see's very cold 850mb air over the ranges all the way up to the Blue Mountains so a good chance of snow, especially with se winds. What a great setup! Does anyone remember when we last had a similar setup?
On a side note check out the snow falls at Mt. Baw Baw. They've had about 60mm so far of snowfall while the major resorts to the north have had next to nothing as far as I can tell. Probably a lot of wet snow though?
Jeff.
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Report in from a friend who has a property south of Orange that it is snowing at the moment and accumulating on the ground. He recorded -2 at 8:00am.
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Hi David and Jeff,
Jeff - got your message - battery needs recharging.
Paul Graham was meant to head up to the Central Tablelands today - hopefully he will post some pictures later.
There is the potential of some decent snowfalls today.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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David,
Snow settling on the ground at around 900 metres I assume certainly once again raises the eyebrows to the following Bureau of Meteorology forecast:
Scattered snow showers on the Alps and possible morning sleet
about high ground in the Central Tablelands.
I am not into the concept of being negative towards the Bureau of Meteorology but I think perhaps either the lack of observations and reports or experience tends to downplay some of the predictions. (We will not discuss this here but perhaps in a separate thread (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=455.0)).
Back to the cold pool and possible ECL.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Reports indicate heavy snow was falling at Mt Trickett around noon. Paul might head to Mt Gibraltar or Oberon...I'm not sure - I think he is more impressed by the potential for a very significant cold outbreak early next week!
Some photos of snow around the ACT region here. That photo of the house at Forbes Creek is a great winter scene!
http://www.abc.net.au/canberra/stories/s1950825.htm
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Paul is at Oberon where it is currently raining (no snow around). Meanwhile, there was a waterspout just off Bondi this afternoon >>
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/waterspout-off-sydney/2007/06/14/1181414437227.html
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Wow, that is some impressive snowfalls around Bungendore. The obs this morning at Baridwood were impressive and it looks like they had about an inch or more of snow as well. I guess the centre of the cold pool moved straight over that area.
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:o Blizz had some great shots of the snow at Mt Trickett today on WZ
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Looking at satellite imagery, one can see the upper level low pressure system creating a spiral over eastern NSW. According to the models GFS 12Z this morning, the progged cold pool was to be located over the western Hunter to northern Central Tablelands. I prefer this scenario than one of a developing low pressure system with cumulonimbus off the coast moving onto the coast. Such events are longer in duration. Low pressure systems seldom remain stationary over eastern NSW.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Yes that's some nice WV imagery Jimmy. 50-60 mm (24hours to 9am) recorded at various sites around the catchment which is excellent, should be some good runoff with the now moist soils and there should be some even more impressive totals by tomorrow morning.
Last night around 7:00pm, as I was parking, I thought I could see a CB developing above. As I was checking a parking sign it suddenly bucketed down and was enough to make me pretty wet in the short time it took to cross the road. While in the restaurant, some 5 minutes later, I saw what i thought was a camera flash out of the corner of my eye, although the canon that followed indicated that it was a close CG bolt. This was followed in quick succesion by about 5 further close bolts. On the way back home, the main road was closed due to a fire, which in the news this morning was reported to have been started by a CG strike. I was periodically awoken by further rumbles of thunder through the early morning hours. This is good winter stuff!
We might have to start a thread for next weeks potential cold outbreak - I'll be at Narrabri on Tuesday so should be an interesting flight in the Dash 8!
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Winds associated with low pressure now being revealed nicely on Newcastle radar. Lets hope for intensification through the early morning hours.
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iwent to shooters hill on thurs arvo and was snowing well there with a bout 10 cm on the ground . video of it is here
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=28998&sy=smh&source=smh.com.au%2Farticles%2F2007%2F06%2F14%2F1181414469819.html%3Ffrom%3Dtop5
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Hi Nick,
Nice someone got there and verified our forecast - Paul Graham unfortunately not familiar with the area did not venture that far and did not see snow.
Raining as we awake and it seems to have been raining during the night. After 21mm yesterday another 31mm has fallen. Eased off at the moment.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Yes, unfortunately, on Thursday afternoon I got close but not close enough. Drove a short distance along the Edith Rd but turned back deciding that there would be nothing because in the past I've encountered snow much sooner and expected to do so again. Anyway, it goes to show, it's best to head out to the Shooters Hill area.
-Paul
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The low circulation is now nicely evident on the Newcastle radar as David suggested. So we officially have two east coast lows within 14 days along pretty much the same part of the coast! And look at next Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday forcasts and looks like another low will develop off the same coastal area. Wednesday might see some heavy snow as well along the Tablelands behind the cold pold as it moves off the coast.
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I guess still slightly related to this topic but historically, I think this month seems to resemble June 1950 when 4 east coast lows developed and broke a daily and/or monthly records.
My father suggests there was one year perhaps in the 1970s (1974 perhaps?) when for about 3 months it was virtually impossible to do any market gardening due to consistent rainfall. It was also during this time of the year.
Michael Bath may look up some of the archives to perhaps disprove me:)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Jimmy,
Spring 1973 was apparantly very wet and one of the wettest ever I believe.
As far as rainfall records go, Penrith has officially broken two so far this month. Highest daily rainfall total as well as June total. But kept records are still very short.
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It was Autumn and Early winter 1974. Check out the graphs of Sydney and Richmond below. Sydney then Richmond. Sorry for taking this slightly off topic!