Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Michael Bath on 02 January 2007, 11:07:46 AM

Title: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 02 January 2007, 11:07:46 AM
Jimmy is currently at Cobar which has been quite active this afternoon with storms. The 2nd round looks like it is hitting now. Shear improves quite a bit so could be some fairly organised cells about.

Tuesday has LI -7 and CAPE over 2000 for tomorrow in the same region.


MB
Title: Re: NSW Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 02 January 2007, 02:40:01 PM
Jimmy here from Cobar.

Did more travelling from Narendra getting to the storm than chasing itself. And yes the storms were definitely lightning active. The only issue, although I won't complain, is the high based nature of the storms meaning the storms went outflow dominant quickly. Amongst the very heavy rain, there were strong winds (some branches down), and tiny hail:)

Hoping for some anvil crawlers tonight from the back end of the storm complex.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NSW Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: David C on 02 January 2007, 04:40:24 PM
Holy Cow!!!  I wonder if there is object out there that has not been struck by lightning this afternoon/evening! Quite a nice line in south central Queensland at the moment (9:40pm local time).
Title: Re: NSW Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 03 January 2007, 05:30:51 AM
Jimmy should now be near the QLD/NSW border on the Mitchell Hwy heading for Cunnamulla area. Storms have just started to develop west of there so should be in for a good show.

Storm Tracker image:
Title: Re: NSW Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: David C on 03 January 2007, 05:39:53 AM
It really is a shame in some respects that the cap is weak and storms are ongoing, otherwise I think there was (perhaps is) a brief window for a few quite impressive supercells this afternoon in the area north of Bourke and into Queensland. However, this complex is on a large scale, is evidently very wet, and will impact singificantly on the evolution of convection through the day. Of course, the cold pool is up there and the modifed surface airmass should get some good daytime heating. Good luck Jimmy!
Title: Re: NSW Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 04 January 2007, 03:22:31 AM
Hi,

1st January 2007.

After a verifying check with Michael, he urged me to do the yards and head north. Nick Moir was unable to attend that chase. I headed north towards Cobar via Hillston -  a good 300km stretch alone with nothing in between besides Mt Hope - population - one pub.

On arrival at Cobar, rather than look for hotspots, I verified with Michael the situation. Storms seemed to me to be headed ESE. I met Alison at the Cobar Bureau of Meteorology Office who allowed me to view up to date lightning tracker. It was going crazy. The most active headed crossed the highway west of Cobar so I gave that a miss. It was the next developing cell that although high based looked decent. It became lightning active and missed Cobar. From 30km east of Cobar, I found some reasonable clearance amongst the Eucalyptus jungle! Some excellent bases and lightning striking frequently within the core and ahead of the cores. I followed this east as the storm passed over. Some hail and very heavy rain recorded. Further east within 50km west of Nyngan, I was experiencing some downbursts. Dust being picked up was a reminder of the drought. Lightning was quite impressive and some deep booms of thunder.

At this point given I was veering away from my target and possible activity later, I headed back to Cobar. Cobar Bureau of Meteorology Office once again with its great views. The complex was developing north of Cobar that became the trouble making for Bourke and its district. Very lightning active as well and very heavy rainfall.

I gave this a miss given I wanted to remain within reach of any activity nearby that developed later. This turned out to be a bad decision because upon checking the data, the atmosphere had been stabilised somewhat and recovery would take some time.

David called during the evening to assure me of good conditions north of Bourke the following day!

2nd January

After a flash of lightning from a dissipating storm to the west of Cobar, I began the day at Cobar Bureau of Meteorology Office where I was able to check the lightning activity (although pretty early near Bourke). Thanks for that once again Alison.

I headed north and intercepted the storms south of Bourke moving gradually east. The amount of water in the fields and side ditch was incredible and great for the drought stricken area. This was fairly lightning active but I knew I had to let this go. I wanted to remain north.

Thanks for a verifying update from Michael, I headed north towards the border. There were storms but they were relatively weak. I remained near a patch of altocumulus castellanus with deep turrets. One of these gradually developed a provided ample timelapse opportunity. Everything in the areas was high based so I knew not to head north at this point in time.

In fact I was about 40km north of the border and I noted that the conditions were better further south. The northerly winds were fresh to strong and creating areas of raised dust. In some cases the dust reduced visibility. I made my way to the border town when I noted a developing boundary!

Nick Moir was on the way up but I had little reception. You wouldn't believe that he had made great advances on distance and time and whilst having lunch at the border town, he had not received my message and had gone almost all the way to Cunnamulla.

He did an about turn and was headed straight back. What made events interesting here was that both our vehicles were thirsty for fuel. The pumps in this border town had been affected by the rain and were not able to supply fuel! Luck was on our side as the intense storm was approaching. What gradually unfolded amongst all the powerful inflow and dust was a pretty impressive structure - a sort of weather tease! It was one of the most impressive shelf cloud structures I have observed on my own storm chases. There were inflow bands at various levels and smooth laminar appearance on the shelf cloud. Timelapse was impressive. What also was impressive was the lower bases. Dust was racing in towards the shelf. Luck had it that there were little trees for a change to hamper any views! We eventually gave it one more move northwards before the structure engulfed us. Heavy rain and small hail observed. Larger hail may have remained further south of our location but we were not concerned.

As we headed north, we moved out of this mass of precipitation and found another core to the west of the road. Anvil bolts were piercing the earth behind us. We had to stop soon for at least some lightning activity.

Here Nick and I were able to capture some pretty impressive and close bolts - one was within or about 300 metres distance from our location. Of course we were in the car by this stage. This signalled the end of our structure chasing and the only option given fuel consumption (and Nick having travelled all day from Sydney) was to punch the second core. Only small hail and very heavy rain was observed. The fields were again awash with water. We made the Cunnamulla area about 7:30pm. With Nick having to pass across some pictures to the paper, fading light and the fact that when we set out eventually, kangaroos were going to be a problem despite the waterlogged fields, we decided to give the storms a miss. We finished with a steak back in town!

Finally an impressive day with decent footage!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 04 January 2007, 03:53:01 AM
Terrific storm chase reports Jimmy ! - wish I had been able to head out as well.   I'll put up some satpics later.
Looking forward to photos and video and some stage.

MB
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 04 January 2007, 07:01:00 AM
1km VIS satpic loop 02z to 08 2nd January.

You can see the storm Jimmy and Nick chased moved from west to east just south of the border, before it rapidly intensified and headed NE - from image 5 in the loop which is 5pm EDT.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/20070102loop.gif)

Radar coverage is pretty poor where this storm was, and the archives are missing some images so no point putting up a loop.

Soundings for Cobar and Moree although not indicative of the storm environment

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007010200cobar.png
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007010200moree.png

MB
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: vrondes on 06 January 2007, 12:06:39 PM
Having just seen Nick Moir's slideshow with audio of the "Dusty storm chase" on the SMH Website , which captured the stark reality and isolation of the region in times of drought married with dramatic storm impressions,  and now having read Jimmy's lucid and highly descriptive report of the chase, it brings home the fact that you guys are recording   with real passion for accurate and dramatic detail of our severe weather for all of us to appreciate.  We are there living and breathing every step of the journey with you.  A great read and wonderful visuals, Cheers, Con.
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 07 January 2007, 09:19:26 AM
Hi guys,

Here it is in regards to what Nick placed online:
(http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/01/04/90_duststorm.jpg) picture by Nick Moir from the Sydney Morning Herald
Nick's Video Presentation (http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/duststormjan07/start.html)

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 07 January 2007, 10:37:22 AM
Hi,

Some pictures from the 1st January chase, high based but what else would you expect. These pictures were from east of Cobar to 50km west of Nyngan:

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0101jd05.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0101jd12.jpg)(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0101jd14.jpg)(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0101jd19.jpg)

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 07 January 2007, 11:00:29 AM
Pictures from the 2nd January 2007. Chase mainly near the NSW/Qld border north of Bourke and on the way to Cunnumulla.

Part 1: Weaker High Based storms

The first storm was simply high base developing from altocumulus!

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd23.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd38.jpg)

Areas of raised dust:

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd49.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd53.jpg)

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 07 January 2007, 11:08:35 AM
Part 2: Severe Storms emerge from the dust - near the NSW Qld border north of Bourke.

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd58.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd62.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd66.jpg)

We head 10 to 15 kilometres north of the border:

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd67.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd69.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd71.jpg)

Storm approaches:

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd80.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd81.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd84.jpg)

Approximately 50km north of the border and it seems this may have been a second cell

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd88.jpg) (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0102jd89.jpg)

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 07 January 2007, 11:15:43 AM
3rd January 2007: Storms in SW Qld develop near Charleville. Given I had to head home in the opposite direction, I did not bother chasing what would have made it a very long trip home.

Storm in the distance indicating a weakenign trend though another updraft developed on its northwest flank. I would have had to head north of Charleville

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2007/0103jd03.jpg)

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: zacaroo on 07 January 2007, 11:24:02 AM
WOW Jimmy, some awesome photos, especially from January 2. WOW!
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 07 January 2007, 11:30:31 AM
Thanks for the comments but I guess you meant they are photographs of awesome storms:) It has taken more than I would have liked to get the pictures up.

The next question I would like to figure out is what type of storm it was. It also has inflow bands given the deep inflow we were experiencing. It also developed along a boundary or perhaps crossed the boundary about the time it was nearing us. There were individual large cells before they merged later to the east of our location.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 08 January 2007, 04:03:49 AM
Hi John,

Thanks for your thoughts.

I tend to agree that it has that squall line structure but the cells were at least initially, discrete. The approaching cell near the border seemed to have storm scale rotation on timelapse although I will have to check video carefully before confirming this. So was it a squall line or line segment with embedded supercells? Or was it a just simply a very large supercell?

Although not trying to make comparisons, take these photographs for example - squall line? David has had something to say about this example in the past given he experienced it first hand:

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/1989/1211mb01.jpg)

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/1989/1211mb02.jpg)

Now consider this supercell although not of the same scale and not drawing any comparisons:

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2004/1207jd10.jpg)

In the initial pictures with updraft and inflow band features, it definitely appears as supercell structure. Later we headed north given the view the storm seemed to veering northeast. It was hear that the very compact appearance of a shelf cloud appears. Later though as it approaches:

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2004/1207jd13.jpg)

The second cell was photographed after we came out of the rain and also had some structure. No chance to timelapse this cell though.

Has the cell transitioned into one of these phases?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 08 January 2007, 06:16:36 AM
This satpic loop for the 2nd January may make it a bit easier to see what is going on. The arrows are my interpretation of direction based on these images and the bits of radar that cover the area.

The line is the NSW/QLD border at 29 degree south.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/20070102loop2.gif)

Individual satpics from this loop are here:

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200701020330.jpg
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200701020430.jpg
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200701020530.jpg
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200701020630.jpg
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200701020730.jpg

Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 08 January 2007, 08:45:22 AM
Jimmy,

I tend to think that was in fact a large H.P. Supercell. Too organised to be just a squall line and definately not too big to be a supercell and deviation in stormtrack is evident on the sat pic.

And the structure in your photos is classic H.P. structure. I bet you felt like you were almost out on the great plains. I like photo 88, you can see it almost taking on mothership structure with weak striations and the rest of the images, wow what a beast of a supercell.

Jeff.
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 08 January 2007, 09:10:09 AM
Hi Jeff,

I tend to agree but best to get others' opions. You like photo 88? Just to ensure no confusion, we came out of the first cell prior to that - photo 88 and 89 were pictures of the second cell further north.

The full sequence of pictures in ascending time order are listed here:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd2007010702.html

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd2007010703.html

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd2007010704.html

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 08 January 2007, 09:27:56 AM
Yeah I realised that 88 onwards was a separate cell and my comment about the beast of a supercell refers of course to the first cell. However I can see in the pics of the second cell as I said some weak looking striations indicating possible/probable organisation for that cell as well.
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: nmoir on 08 January 2007, 12:48:25 PM
HI guys , sorry to out of the loop for few days , just to add alittle to jimmy's report for 2nd jan

nearing Barringun (100km nth bourke aprox) i watched what i thought was a rainfree microburst raising dust and also saw briefly in the distance a well difined gustnado ( i noted no rotation in clouds above) but was unable to get a shot as i was making very great haste towards it ,the area of raised dust quickly increased in size until covering a broad front, after passing the dust which appeared to be generally an east nth east wind i  quickly saw a change in the direction of the winds now a strong nth wind. After returning and meeting up with jimmy i also recorded on my crappy little anemometer gusts to 35kph inflow and average for the ten mins i was watching would have been 25kph from east.
I have to say i found the raised dust very good for really making the boundary dead obvious to a apprentice storm chaser and gave me a good idea of how concentrated an area can be for things to occur
we then followed north and so back to jimmys report

glad you guys found the pix!
what a storm and easily worth the 1100km drive to see a beast like that

nick moir
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: David C on 08 January 2007, 04:27:26 PM
I tend to agree with Jeff, that is some awesome HP structure and, as far depicting the shelf cloud, some of those are probably the best photos I have seen out of this country -- beautiful, it just looks really very intense. As soon as I saw your photos Jimmy I immediately thought of December 1989 (as per Michael's photos above). At that time (1989) I knew nothing about supercells but I can clearly recall a storm split west of where I was in Sydney. I remember an intense isolated storm to the west and then saw it 'develop' into a storm that moved sharply north (ie never got any closer to where I was) and a storm that moved to the south of here -- both 'green' and lightning active. Feeling despondent thinking that we had missed the action I was pleased to see the massive intense line (ie the photos above) move in rapidly from the west. Inflow was strong and low-level clouds were feeding in rapidly - it was a very 'mysterious' and dynamic event,,' just mind blowing to watch at that time (prior to all this info we have available to us now). I have to say, that storm had intense CG lightning especially in the trailing stratiform region (possibly the most intense Cg lightning I have ever seen, here of US). I remember Don White wrote about this event in his daily column in the 'Daily Mirror (December 12), which I have in front of me now, and this also has a write up of these storms on page 7 ('mini-cyclone' at Parkes, blackouts from Campbelltown to Kogorah, roofing totally removed form homes / shops around Merrylands, Elizabeth Drive closed due to fallen tress etc etc etc).

Anyway, back to the this recent event, the directional shear certainly looked prime for some supercells - deep inflow evident in your photos Jimmy. Looking forward to your video of this one! 
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 09 January 2007, 02:38:40 AM
Links to GFS Analysis: Monday 01/01/2007 06z

Instability: CAPE (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106cape.png) / Lifted Index (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106li.png)

Relative Humidity: 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106rh0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106rh0500.png) / 0600 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106rh0600.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106rh0700.png) / 0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106rh0850.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106rh1000.png)

Temperature: 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106tmp0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106tmp0500.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106tmp0700.png) /  0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106tmp0850.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106tmp1000.png)

Winds (knots): 0200 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind0200.png) / 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind0500.png) / 0600 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind0600.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind0700.png) / 0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind0850.png) / 0925 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind0925.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010106wind1000.png)


Links to GFS Analysis: Tuesday 02/01/2007 06z

Instability: CAPE (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206cape.png) / Lifted Index (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206li.png)

Relative Humidity: 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206rh0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206rh0500.png) / 0600 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206rh0600.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206rh0700.png) / 0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206rh0850.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206rh1000.png)

Temperature: 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206tmp0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206tmp0500.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206tmp0700.png) /  0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206tmp0850.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206tmp1000.png)

Winds (knots): 0200 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind0200.png) / 0300 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind0300.png) / 0500 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind0500.png) / 0600 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind0600.png) / 0700 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind0700.png) / 0850 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind0850.png) / 0925 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind0925.png) / 1000 (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/maps/2007010206wind1000.png)

Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 09 January 2007, 11:54:05 AM
Hi David,

When you suggest HP structure, what exactly are you referring to: squall line or supercell? I personally tend to try reserving use of the word HP as short for supercells and squall line as is directly referred to.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: David C on 10 January 2007, 06:10:33 AM
Hi Jimmy,

Yeah I realised that 88 onwards was a separate cell and my comment about the beast of a supercell refers of course to the first cell. However I can see in the pics of the second cell as I said some weak looking striations indicating possible/probable organisation for that cell as well.

hope that helps  :P ;D 

As it is, I think it's difficult to resolve what was happening based on satellite alone. The first point is the environment in which these storms developed was supportive of (left-moving) supercells, correct? As per Michael's interpretation, it seems that the northern arrowed cell was somewhat discrete and right-moving (supported by the appearance of the anvil too) and was the southern member of a line. The southern cluster is more difficult to make out -not sure if the arrowed storm dissipated in the wake of the larger storm to it's southeast, whether they merged or what? Finally, it is all a dog's breakfeast in the last few images.

If and when you guys, Jimmy and Nick, get time it would be good to match up your location at the times of those satpics and with any accompanying photos and your own observations...would know what storm(s) we are looking at.

-- Nick, it's not hard to see why you win so many awards -- those photos are ALIVE --- top stuff!!
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 10 January 2007, 06:33:01 AM
David,

Perhaps Michael has to post radar imagery despite missing images.

The difficulty arises because of the existing dust. Although I got to see for over an hour the approach of the cirrus anvil shield, I did not have a working reliable compass to determine the direction of movement and approach. The difficulty arises when trying to determine exactly where our longitudinal position is on the satellite imagery. Sometimes I wished it was not culled down and that the absolute full images were available for download.

All I can suggest is we began our chase on the border and moved northwards as per report. The storm basically produced a few drops of anvil rain on the border. This meant we were destined for a move north as well as for a better perspective of the whole cell to remain north of it.

As to the comment of the environment mostly supportive of left moving supercells, this region was to me at or close to the southern extent where the atmospheric profile changes. Given the boundary in place, that would have also played some part in influencing some of the motions and interactions.

I will look at the video footage once more and determine if there was hint of movement left or right of the field of view.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Brad Hannon on 10 January 2007, 04:04:16 PM
Hi all, this thread has been a really interesting read guys so thanks for all the info, pics and discussion  ;)

Jimmy and Nick, glad you had some great chasing - bet the steak went down well!  I am very envious down here in Melbourne and getting very itchy for some US action.....

Regards, Brad.
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: David C on 10 January 2007, 05:59:29 PM
Hi Jimmy,

If the initial storm that you time-lapsed was the 'right moving' storm that we see in the satpics, that raises questions on whether the rotation you see in time-lapse is anti-cyclonic. After looking at the satpics now I'm less convinved than I was at lunch time that it was a right mover, but rather a case of new cells developing. Although this was not a day of terribly strong deep layer sheer surely left-movers would be favoured since the low-level winds back nicely with height. If that storm was anti-cyclonic (ie a supercell) one would have assumed it to have ingested negative SRH 'inflow'. Such longevity under these circumstances does not make sense does it?
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 11 January 2007, 06:17:16 AM
Hi David,

I am trying to look through my threads where I suggested what I had chased was right moving:)

In my opinion, depending on the longitudinal position and I guess the time frame, it is most likely the cell moved from the southwest. But I cannot tell due to lack of orientation. If the rotation is as I have it, it was cyclonic - that is if there was storm scale rotation. The cell that is observed further north was a high based smaller cell that remained ahead of the main storm that approached. It may have interacted east of the road but I cannot confirm beyond this point. The cell structured was consistent with a left mvoing HP supercell or a squall line. The structure of the storm to me suggests that the main updraft was on the southern end of the shelf cloud and is where, as you see in the first few pictures in the sequence, where the shelf cloud begins.

As to storm longetivity, I cannot confirm this either. We have pathetic radar coverage, satellite imagery that we cannot decipher properly, and dust covered most of our view until the bases neared say about 10-20km distance from our location. Of course looking upwards the anvil was approaching for a lot longer and is why I never made any move.

I have not had time to look at the timelapse once again.

I know this is puzzling but a great discussion nevertheless.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 11 January 2007, 08:21:26 AM
Hi,

Consider the map below. Barringun is across the border. Our perspective given we are just south of the border, is a WSW view. This is where the storm is in relation to our perspective W to SW at the approximate time of this image.

(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/satpics/200701020530.jpg)

Other storms are perhaps 50km north at this point. Our storm had to be one that crossed the border from the south side.

I hope that helps.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Michael Bath on 11 January 2007, 08:51:17 AM
It's certainly becoming clearer which cells you were observing.  An interactive radar display is now online here:

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/radar/20070102/warrego512.htm

MB
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: tm on 12 January 2007, 02:36:17 AM
hi all,
interesting and confusing discussion... :D
thanks for getting the 512k radar MB :)
this image below was taken (phone) at around 06:40UTC (5:39ESDT) ie. 1 frame before radar comes back online....from ~35km SW of Cunnamulla looking Sth...just prior to it all precipitating as a line on radar (06:50frame) as i could see outflow boundaries and RFB's 'filling in' above and to my N-NNW...
Picture here (http://tm.bsch.au.com/gallery/albums/userpics/10001/02012007613Eulo%7E0.jpg)  (copyright)

cheers,
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 12 January 2007, 03:39:08 AM
Hi TM,

It is good to see your perspective of what seems to be the northern storm  did you see anything more distant prior to this? Was there raised dust hindering your view? Did you see the earlier high based storm? Also there was a smaller storm that preceded our storm as well? Did you chase with anyone else or was in contact with such?

Let us know what you did on the day and how things unfolded.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: nmoir on 12 January 2007, 02:07:42 PM
Hi everyone , just to confuse evryone more i thought i would add my memories from the period that i missed jimmy and went north to cunnamulla , i will have to check my shots for the times but i think it was around 3:30pm NSW time . there was a smaller weak storm forming slowly about 50 north west of barringun and also a similar looking storm to the north north east of barringun about 60 km , both these storms had small anvils , had not dropped any bolts that i could see and they were in clear air with no anvils or cloud over head and seperate from tha large cloud mass to the east and sth east. far to the northwest approx 40-50 west of cunnamulla was a better looking prospect and i had thought that jimmy may have had a shot at going for that one before i got his message that he was still in barringun. i will go through my shots tonight to see if i shot any of the northern stuff

nick
Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: tm on 19 January 2007, 04:01:37 AM
hi all,

 I guess I was perhaps located on the northern side of what you saw JD and on the southern end of the line to the north.. (perhaps there was a cell in between this and the one Jimmy saw but it was still clearly visible at times)

Some interesting storms and discussion  :)

cheers,

Title: Re: NW NSW / SW QLD Storms 1st January - 3rd January 2007
Post by: Shaun Galman on 22 May 2007, 08:37:25 AM
Hi all,
Sorry for the lateness of this post but I have some photos from the 1st of Jan. and a few from the 2nd (not posted here) but the cells were HP and electrically weak with only a very few actual CG's by the time they reached us here at Lightning Ridge?
The 1st of Jan storms however put on a great show and I thought I'd share a few of the photos with you :)
 (http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=542&g2_serialNumber=2)
It started out quite messy, almost looking like a squall line but it was worth the wait  (for an hour or so) as it soon organised and a nice shelf cloud soon developed. This photo above (looking West from an Opal field called the 4Mile) was the only daylight CG I managed but I was very happy with it.
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=549&g2_serialNumber=2)
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=555&g2_serialNumber=2)
(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=558&g2_serialNumber=2)
The gust front on this storm was great and seemed to lift the whole Coocoran (dry) lake into the air (above). We headed back into town immediately after this as it started to rain mud and visibility was down to a few meters!

(http://www.ridgelightning.com/gallery2/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=564&g2_serialNumber=2)
One of the only CG's I managed to capture as the wind gusts and rain were making photography a total nightmare! This was taken in our main street looking SW. I got completely drenched but it was definately worth it!

Cheers guys,
Shauno.