Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Jimmy Deguara on 08 December 2006, 10:02:19 AM

Title: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 08 December 2006, 10:02:19 AM
Hi,

I was talking with both Jeff and Nick in regards to the bushfires in Victoria. I have not seen such a powerful pyrocumulus (or is it a pyrocumulonimbus) on the news. Compared to the crappy storms we had approaching - I would have rather been down there! Any other comments or images in relation to these potentially dangerous fires please don't hesitate to mention here.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 08 December 2006, 03:51:58 PM
Jimmy, I cannot remember seeing such a strong radar image of the fires yesterday since Canberra. For magnitude it's up there in the top 10% for sure. As for the pyrocumulonimbus did you notice it was producing lightning? You could see fresh strikes occuring yesterday on the tracker.
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 09 December 2006, 12:51:35 AM
Hi Jeff or anyone,

If images of the lightning can be posted that would be awesome as it I am not at all surprised!

John, I must say I tend to agree with the seriousness of not only those fires but all fires. My reasoning behind the reasoning of such widespread bushfire areas and the danger threat associated with most regions probably unrivalled by almost any other situation we have ever seen are affected by the following factors:

- many or most areas of the SE of Australia are in deep drought
- we are in a pattern of well above temperatures so early in the season so the probability of strong heating and less widespread thunderstorm activity and associated low rainfall is high
- the concequent effect of countless lightning strikes across a widespread region has in my opinion been once again unrivalled by any other bushfire seasons in recent history
- last and not least - the cold outbreak could not have been timed perfectly (from a distastrous effect perspective). Most of us probably took note of the snow that came from the cold outbreak which would have provided moisture for higher altitudes. But what about the subsequent frosts on one or two days following the rain and snow! I noted that just in Mudgee region alone and it seems a similar effect towards Gunnedah and Tamworth that frosts have burned and killed off any existing vegetation to create an even more extensive fire hazard right across the eastern region of Australia.

John, you may well suggest that this weekend will have the potential of dangerous bushfires but I would like to alert to the period perhaps around Christmas/Boxing Day. If we have a repeat system periodically as the large low during mid - November, they are the slow progressing systems that can generate high temperatures, strong winds and very low humidities as well as high Haines Index values over several consecutive days covering wide region of SE Australia. I hope this is not realised.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Michael Bath on 09 December 2006, 02:34:10 AM
There are some impressive pyrocumulonimbus photos on WZ forums for this date.  The VIS satpic loop (3 - 7pm) shows it well too:

(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/satpics/20061206loop.gif)

This Terra MODIS image for 5th Dec is nice - it was also published in the Daily Telegraph.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2006339-1205/Australia.A2006339.0050.500m.jpg

MB
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 09 December 2006, 06:12:32 AM
Hi Michael,

If you have time to select a few direct links to some of the most impressive website pictures, that would be great!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Michael Bath on 09 December 2006, 08:01:47 AM
By Rob Alexander of Wangattta:

http://people.aapt.net.au/~ventor/pyrocumulus1.jpg
http://people.aapt.net.au/~ventor/pyro.jpg
http://people.aapt.net.au/~ventor/pc.jpg


By Brayden of Wodonga:

http://athene.riv.csu.edu.au/~mloats01/Brayden/PyroCu2006Fires1.JPG
http://athene.riv.csu.edu.au/~mloats01/Brayden/PyroCu2006Fires2.JPG
http://athene.riv.csu.edu.au/~mloats01/Brayden/PyroCu2006Fires3.JPG
http://athene.riv.csu.edu.au/~mloats01/Brayden/PyroCu2006Fires4.JPG
http://athene.riv.csu.edu.au/~mloats01/Brayden/PyroCu2006Fires5.JPG
http://athene.riv.csu.edu.au/~mloats01/Brayden/PyroCu2006Fires6.JPG
http://athene.riv.csu.edu.au/~mloats01/Brayden/PyroCu2006Fires7.JPG

Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jeff Brislane on 09 December 2006, 08:20:20 AM
OMG! Do those pyro CB's have overshooting tops!

MB those top three photos are just sensational! Those are the best pyro CB pics I have ever seen! Man I wish I was there with a camera.
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: David C on 09 December 2006, 04:30:50 PM
WOW! Robbie excelled himself with those shots -- awesome. On the flip side, damn..pity the animals that are caught in all that but what incredible convection. Hoping we don't see any of that around here.
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 09 December 2006, 04:31:54 PM
Thanks Michael for posting these - sensational!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Brad Hannon on 12 December 2006, 06:09:47 AM
WOW they are fantastic pics.  I wish I could contribute some pics being from Victoria but im too far south :( (then again thats not a bad thing considering the size of these fires).
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jane Gough on 12 December 2006, 06:40:36 AM
Hi Everyone.

I thought I would show you some of my images from the smoke haze experienced in Melbourne over the weekend. These were taken on Saturday morning and the city skyline should be clearly visible. I hope these are not too large and exceed guidelines!

(http://www.stormygirl.net/images/smoke2091206.jpg)

(http://www.stormygirl.net/images/smoke3091206.jpg)

The temp according to my weather station reached a max of 42.2C, the media hyped it up saying it was the hottest December day in 53 years, but December 31st last year was 42.9C (42.4C on my weather station, still beating yesterday's efforts.)

The strong Northerly was horrid, but the SW change came through in the SE Suburbs around 3.30ish. Today 19.5C.....gotta love Melbourne's weather!!

Here is a map which may be of interest showing the current fires and hot spots. I really feel for the residents and firefighters working in the most atrocious conditions yesterday. Unfortunately the change bought little or no rain to the areas that need it most. :-[

http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/incidents/images/news_image/web_sentinel_map_20061211_0800_11751.jpg
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 12 December 2006, 04:39:21 PM
Hi Jane,

Thanks for those pictures - that haze is very thick and disgusting! We had smoke haze several weeks ago but it has been clear since!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jeremy Lunn on 12 December 2006, 05:21:04 PM
The sun was appearing bright orange or even pink not too long before sunset on Saturday night (eastern suburbs of Melbourne, about 15km).  If only I had grabbed the camera.
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Brad Hannon on 13 December 2006, 03:47:49 AM
Hi Jeremy, I actually did take some shots of the 'smoky orange' sun as it was setting on Saturday night.  I will try and post a few tonight.
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Brad Hannon on 13 December 2006, 01:36:34 PM
Here are a few pics of the sunset thru smoke haze here in Melbourne on Saturday night.  There was a half hour or so where it was an intense orange.  You can tell I havent seen a storm for a while!
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 13 December 2006, 02:39:48 PM
Hi Brad,

Bloody hell! Melbourne looked like the planet Mars!

I don't mind taking pictures of something as rare unique as that!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Brad Hannon on 14 December 2006, 05:59:01 AM
Yeah it was a cool sight Jimmy.  This morning we awoke to smoky conditions again but it wasnt too bad.  The sun was again a great sight as it's silhouette broke through the smoke haze and appeared orange/pink.  However, by 10.30am Melbourne was enveloped in grey/brown smoke.  Visibility from my 18th floor window is down to 500m max.  Anything less than that is pretty hazy.  Winds are from the NE (the direction of the fires) but are relatively light at this stage - in fact they've now dropped to a zephyr.  Will be very interesting if they spring up as forecast.

I see the temp for tomorrow has been reduced to low 30's (from the previous top of 34) and I assume this is due to the amount of smoke that will prevent direct surface warming from the sun itself.
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Harley Pearman on 14 December 2006, 12:06:55 PM
Brayden

Those shots you took near Wodonga are awesome. It looks like that you are NE of Mt Baranduda looking S or SW.

This is the best pyrocumulus cloud that I have seen. I grew up in Albury across the border in NSW and I remember seeing something reasonably similar during the 1985 / 1986 bushfires generally in the same region.

I remember two consecutive days in early January 1986 in which temperatures hit 42C and 41C over the two days and there was a bushfire outbreak in NE Victoria although not as large and as significant as this. One fire did produce a significant pyrocumulus cloud.

Black Friday 1940

Actually on this subject, if there are any photos around, you may wish to do a comparison to Black Friday (Friday 13 1940). You may see something not too dissimilar here and in the same locality too.

Apparently on this day 10% of Victoria went up in flames. I did a research project on this at high school and the event of Black Friday came at the back of a drought that was very severe. The current drought that you are experiencing seems to be similar to what happened in 1939 / 1940.

That heatwave on those four days (January 9 to 13 - 1940) pushed temperatures to record levels, something that has not been reached since although they have been approached (eg 3 January 1990 and again in January 2002 at Albury). I remember reading through newspaper articles and records that have been kept at the Albury City library and I remember seeing a temperature of about 47.9C for Albury on that day (Friday 13 1940) and a 49.7C nearby but I cannot confirm that higher figure.

On that day, vast areas of NE Victoria was blackened and the problems then are not too dissimilar to what is happening today except on that day (13/1/1940), 71 people lost their lives and whole towns were lost.

Its interesting to see the similarities of today (2006) to that year (1939 / 1940). Could this be a repeat of that year?

However, it was not long afterwards that the drought broke in mid to late summer, apparently something that is rare. The BOM has prepared a rainfall map for all to see on their website showing what happening to rainfall in 1940 and it is amazing to see the stark contrast.

If you look at the rainfall figures for 1939, approximately 233 mm of rain (Give or take a small amount) fell in a 12 month period of 1938/1939 but I am aware of a 100 mm fall occurring (a one off event) that pushed the total to about 330 mm for 1939. This is the lowest but this year may pip that.

This year, I think that you have had about 260 mm (Give or take and correct me if I am wrong). Its in the lowest 10 percentile of rainfall figures. In terms of rainfall it appears to be matching that year (1939). In terms of heatwaves you are getting, it appears to be matching that year and again these fires appear to be matching that year too.

Incidentally, the bushfires of that year were burning for weeks which culminated in the Black Friday events.

Its worth noting the similarities of the two years. So overall, excellent photos but it is a frightening reality and a reminder that something similar in similar circumstances happened 66 years ago (In this very region).

Harley Pearman
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jeremy Lunn on 20 December 2006, 07:48:57 AM
Was in town last Wednesday and took a few shots.  Though I'm beginning to think it'll be a common occurrence this summer.
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 04 January 2007, 02:32:52 AM
Jeremy,

My assumptions re that the haze and bushfire threat has diminished with all the recent storms and rains?

Regards.

Jimmy Deguara
Title: Re: Bushfires Victoria 6th December 2006
Post by: Jimmy Deguara on 05 January 2007, 05:18:24 PM
John,

Thanks for the information John. Can't really rely on media - although on my chase trip I had not watched or heard news:)

You suggest they are within containment lines but obviously still are a concern. Are they allowing it to burn itself out? I take it the main concern is to protect life and property.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara