Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: nmoir on 27 November 2006, 01:45:18 AM
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-6 li around mudgee on the 28th but winds are all westerly and no backing
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Hi Nick,
The storm situation is bland at the moment though Tuesday is once again looking reasonable but I was thinking perhaps further north from there based on current model runs.
Even today there seems to be a shot up the mid-North Coast ranges but the storms are most likely going to struggle to tap the mositure and perhaps remain elevated.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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actually i just looked for monday in same region but bit north , better day? some nthly winds
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Hi Nick,
You sound like you have been Tornado Alley recently or something... Are you looking for screaming inflow:)
Any of the days have instability but there is a ridge as well as a lot of heat being generated. The conditions don't seem to match up and mid-level cloud is set to be a hinderence to any substantial convection.
Tuesday according to the 12Z model run has cloud generally cleared from the state but winds tending NNW.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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It appears to be one of those years that if you wait for prime conditions the whole season will have slipped away. I am on holidays so I will be heading off early am tomorrow for at least Glen Innes, although I prefer further north, perhaps Stanthorpe / Warwick. Tuesday looks like a sit around the Northern Tablelands, than perhaps heading east late and down to the MNC.
Monday has a rather concerning atmosphere profile ( as Jimmy mentioned ) with too much mositure - a bit of a candle stick sounding, and of course Tuesday sees a better profile with crap winds.
Today could be the sleeper, but prefer north from a line Newcastle to Gunnedah and elevated as moisture will be an issue.
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Hi Michael,
I am checking the 18Z model run for today as it would be prime for a chase then overnight stay into tomorrow if required and Tuesday as well.
My pet hate though is ample mid-level moisture - I cannot count more than a few chases in my whole career where decent photogenic storms have occurred on such situations. The mid-level cloud also means that storms either have erupted or the energy was being converted into cloud in the mid-levels.
Of course if I was on vacation I would have been up there myself. Don't worry, I am not after supercells on all chases, just great contrast, organised photogenic storms.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Storms were quite active Sunday and things should be very active again today with plenty of instablity and good moisture. Shear is quite interesting too and supercells are certainly possible.
Brief chase account from yesterday:
Was an interesting storm chase with Rodney Wallbridge and Greg Spencer (visiting from WA) yesterday afternoon and night. It was the hottest day of the season here with the temp pushing 38-39 west of Lismore - and humid - but not very deep until later on.
We watched several storms, the first locally was west of Kyogle before very powerful updrafts formed just south of Casino around 4.30 EDT. The temperature dropped about 6 degrees as the rush of wind shot into the updrafts.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112601.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112602.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112603.jpg)
Very much a low precipitation storm with minimal base features, but incredibly powerful updrafts and thick anvil. Thunder was constant while this cell was active.
After this there was a bit of a lull locally though we knew plenty of storms were further south of Grafton.
In the evening things really took off as several high based storms spread through the Northern Rivers. Some light showers made the lightning chase a challenge at times, but we certainly were treated to quite a show.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112604.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112605.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112606.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112607.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112608.jpg)
MB
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nice frames michael
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How about the Sunshine Coast any chance of storms? Saw nothing today >:(
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Hi Michael,
Awesome pictures and nice storms - glad you went out and covered what I didn't:)
I left Sydney from about 2pm in pursuit of a storm - yes a weak storm. Well I aimed for the Putty and the road was blocked due to fires - that cost me that storm as I had to go all the way out to Lithgow Miudgee. It was dry there and smoke filled. I was determined to not let that get me down and concentrate on being in position for the next day - 27th November. I got to Uralla about just after 9pm.
I awoke 4:30am (no special reason!) I had found a free wireless spot so decided to load the latest data. It persisted in its forecast for 2200 CAPE contained in the previous evening's run. With a weak storm already developing near Dorrigo, I set out with the intention of being early.
Early was not a good idea. I ended up having to park and remain in the shade under a tree near Guyra. I waited and waited. Michael Bath updated me with the latest data and I wasastonished to find the models had decided to up the CAPE to 2700J/kg. Cumulus began to develop. Knowing the history of the area I was of the opinion that storms would fire within the next hour or two. Try 4 hours! So where was the energy? The bases and tops of the cumulus seemed decent at first but then began to exhibit 'storm starved' characteristics. Obviously drier air had begun to mix out the existing moist air.
I decided to head back to Guyra considering Michael Thompson was in the area. A storm had attempted to break the cap. Upon reaching Michael T, the storm went through a stale-mate stage. We knew it was almost ready to let go. The NNW winds were taking their toll. The moisture was further east. Finally with the rise of one main tower at just prior to 2pm, I headed east. Michael T was going to meet me there.
On nearing Ebor, the storm surprisingly exhibited good structure - tapping the moisture. Lightning was isolated but on the increase. There seemed to be inflow from the north and developing bases as well as a decent anvil. Hail was reported from the rear section of this cell confirming that the core was producing hail to about 1cm in diameter.
Reatreating NW once more in short bursts, hail once again hammered the vehicle - this time up to 1.5cm. Finally up the road, 2 to occasionally 3cm thumped the vehicle. This persisted for some time until the infamous stuttering activity. we may have been on the edge of the storm, though the precipitation cascade intensifed. This time hail to about 4cm pounded the vehicle as well as bouncing off the grass. The hail became larger - threatening to take out windows. Well it always seems like that. This eased and it seemed gone. What is that sound I thought - it sounded like distant rain. A very large hailstone bounced half a metre off the grass and loud vibrating thumps on the vehicle as well. I finally realised that the sound was the infamous 'hail roar'!
This would have been the longest session that I would have experienced hail in one particular location. And they were big - the largest hail I have experienced so far this season. Despite retreating a little, I made a quick dash back into the storm to measure hail samples. Although in melting stage, the diameter was consitent in the order of about 4 to 5cm in diameter.
The next stage was to attempt to remain with the storm. We did well at first but then entered into unforgiven country - scattered forests and a gully! The storm was ever so near but not near enough. Intence lightning behaviour was experienced at this stage.
We decided it was time to head for Glen Innes - I lost Michael T and caught up with James Harris! A day of chaser convergence. After discussing what storm we had intercepted being a supercell, it was noted that the storm was still intense and tracking NNW - destination Tenterfield.
This was the last segment of an intense afternoon - the lightning was occasional though quite intense in Tenterfield.
Pictures will be posted shortly.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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The evening chase last night with Rod and Beck was great - so much lightning again. The best part was driving (from the NW) into a very active storm north of Kyogle about 10pm onwards. Seriously thought the Rav4 was going to cop a hail stone or two, but luckily just torrential rain and strong winds. Just as we got to Wiangaree a barrage of CGs started. It was pouring there but fortunately a service station provided some cover to watch.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112701.jpg)
Whose ghostly head got in the way of this shot ?
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112702.jpg)
There were numerous shotgun lightning bolts hitting near us before it suddenly stopped at 10.40 EDT
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112703.jpg)
But the highlight of the night for me were not these photos, but what my 14 year old daughter Katrina had taken back at home ! She had been informed lightning was likely and stayed up to capture the amazing anvil crawlers spreading in from the west.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112704.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112705.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112706.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112707.jpg)
Can't wait to see the rest of the photos everyone got !
Regards, Michael :)
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1km VIS satpic loop noon to 7pm:
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/satpics/20061127loop.gif)
Radar loop from 1.30pm to 11pm:
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200611271200.gif
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Very impressive anvil crawlers there Michael. You're a very good teacher. The images by your daughter are truly spectacular, as indeed are those by her dad who must be a proud dad indeed. Cheers, Con.
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How do you make the radar loops? By the way very nice pics Michael and Katrina :) By the way I'm 14 as well.
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There are some storms around Coffs Harbor, can't wait for the pics. I can't wait for tomorrow's storms, as they are forecasting for SE QLD although judging by the models they'll occur more south during the late afternoon and evening, and my the 30th they should be in the Capricoria district.
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I know it's late, but woken up for a glass of water and check the news before heading to bed. However I'm asking is how come there's no more reports in the storm news section?, the latest one is from June 2006 isn't there any for this storm season? Because I really like reading those reports.
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Hi Steven,
I use Gif Animator:
http://www.ulead.com/ga/runme.htm
but there are some others you could search for at download.com or other sites.
The forum has somewhat taken over from the detailed reports on Storm News for the time being. I am working on a program to help the report writing process for Jimmy and I as it is very time consuming putting those together. But hopefully we'll do a catch up of reports soon - all the storms means things like that have to wait :)
I chased the lightning into the Clarence Valley last night with Rodney. Got some truly amazing photos with the Clarence River in the foreground. Will post some pics later this morning after I finish my morning work. Bit of a struggle after getting home at 12.50am, on top of two previous days of after midnight chases lol
regards, Michael.
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Hi John,
Can you tell me your source of information regarding the storm that went through Newcastle having funnels and rotation? I would believe it to more a shelf cloud structure based on the situation on this day? I haven't observed radar of course.
Awesome Michael you guys got some more lightning! I headed back given I was heading through a dangerous stretch of the Pacific Highway and in very heavy rain fogged up windows and I wasn't chasing the next day. Got home 1am. Storms on the Mid North Coast weakened which I was suspecting and the new cells were way to far north.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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wicked lightning photos and anvil crawlers , i can see a career in her future , michael.
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and now for last night's storms .... !!!
Rodney Wallbridge and I headed out about 630 EDT and set up at Whiporie initially. Didn't see any lightning during the drive but saw CGs firing off as soon as we reached the Richmond Range high point on the Summerland Way.
Two cells passed by to our S-SE while in this location with cane burns offering some interesting colours.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112801.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112801.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112802.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112802.jpg
We then moved to Lawrence beside the Clarence River where the main show unfolded. It certainly was one of the most amazing displays of lightning I have even seen !
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112803.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112803.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112804.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112804.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112805.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112805.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112806.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112806.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112807.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112807.jpg
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112808.jpg)
Larger view: http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/photos/2006112808.jpg
Didn't get home till 12.50AM but certainly an incredible enjoyable evening in the Northern Rivers !
Regards, Michael
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Nick - yeah - she loves taking photos though certainly not storms all that much. But it's hard not to like lightning ! She is under instruction to take photos of storms from home when I'm chasing, but doesn't need any push to go for the lightning - she loves that :)
MB
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Hi John,
That certainly does look like a wall cloud - sorry I was too far north in Tenterfield and would not have made that particular cell. Must have interacted with the boundary.
Nice pictures.
Regards
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi,
In relation to my comments on the base feature of that Newcastle cell, it certainly exhibited supercell characteristics particularly in relation to deviation. But in my chat with David Croan, I am now thinking that the storm was elevated and interactiing with the surface moisture. This quite often is the case out in areas such as Parkes, Forbes and Cowra with any organised structure becoming disorganised quickly. Was there a wall cloud existent? The storm would not have been in the phase for too long I guess after crossing the boundary I would think.
What are others' thoughts on this? Certainly a very photgenic storm pity one could not see the whole structure as that would provide more clues.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Well a big storm moved over us :) And mainly delivered lightning, and it was severe lightning. It didn't rain that much however the storm was very electrical and moved over at about 6:55 PM QLD time. As it was moving north my father volunteered to take me out to the water to look at the lightning, by this stage most of the activity had died off until it completely ceased but during this time we saw one big bolt but not much noise. Anyway that's my story and I'm very satisfied. ;D ;D
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Hi John,
To make my points a little clearer, I am not suggesting the storm base lowered as such - merely interacting with moisture can lower shelf clouds and scud lowerings although not sufficient for a complete lowering of the base.
It is difficult to determine given the limited pespective of the photographs supplied.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Headed off on chase about 5pm with Dave Ellem. Strong storms were evident on radar over the Northern Tablelands already and seemed like they would reach Casino sort of area just before 7pm.
Storms were also apparent developing to the north along the border somewhere with some overshoots and backshearing. Once at the spot just NW of Casino we watched the main storm spread in. Given the hot day and afternoon, high based storms were expected and certainly were occurring.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112901.jpg)
It was surprising more CGs did not occur from this storm, although there were many powerful anvil crawlers spreading overhead towards the NE.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112902.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112903.jpg)
James Harris met us and we continued to observe here till about 6.30pm. The rain and lightning was too close for comfort now so we shot north. A barrage of CGs occurred east of where we were in new development along the line - most likely where the convergence of hot humid northeasters was meeting the southerly change.
The scene was very dramatic near Kyogle with some interesting structure just to our east and the new updraft base just to the southwest.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112904.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112905.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112906.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112907.jpg)
Moving north through town we kept just ahead of the severe weather.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112908.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112909.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112910.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112911.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112912.jpg)
Microbursts spread so fast towards the north we could not keep out of it, despite heading off before it had hit our immediate location. Branches were coming off the trees and bursts of heavy swirling rain hit on and off all the way to just north of Wiangaree. So severe weather for about 15ks !
The road then heads northwest. The sunset lit view of the cell now to our northeast was very impressive. The southerly blasted through bringing low cloud so the show was over.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112913.jpg)
Sporadic lightning continued till about 930pm but it was mainly all obscured by patchy stratocumulus.
My daughter Katrina managed to get a couple of lovely daytime CGs out the front of our home at McLeans Ridges shortly after 7pm.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112914.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/forum/thumbs/2006112915.jpg)
Regards, Michael
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Hi guys,
I'll attempt to show a few pictures from the chase - namely from the 27th November 2006 supercell event. Unfortunately due to either dark lighting, precipitation, lack of opportunities, the pictures are not the best but at least they give some indication of what the storms were doing:
Storm in the distance on the 26th November 2006 - Putty Road blocked off by bushfires
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1126jd01.jpg)
Storm on the 27th November 2006 finally breaks the cap
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd10.jpg)
base structure of the storm - I have to check video for this component as there was this funnel like base persisting for a little while
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd11.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd12.jpg)
I was in an awkward position and I may have bumped the camera settings
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd16.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd18.jpg)
Let's just say the measured hail size has to be revised to 4.6 or 4.7cm in diameter - this was once again a rush job - however I can say that considerable melting had taken place
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd19.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd20.jpg)
Supercell E of Glen Innes
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd28.jpg)
High based severe storms approaching S and SW of Glen Innes
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd31.jpg)
Back to the supercell north of Glen Innes
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd34.jpg)
Supercell approaching near Tenterfield
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd39.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2006/1127jd38.jpg)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Referring to the Monday 27th Northern Tablelands area the sat picture belows shows the importnace of chasing boundaries. In our case a kind of dryline, but not in the mid west sense, as the air behind the dryline was still very unstable.
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/sat271106.jpg)
If you look at the picture you can see the coastal strato cumulus junk in a distinct band up the coast and penetrating inland a few miles. The trough was aligned very roughly east/west in the region of the storms. Note how the our storm (the top and right most on the picture) is seen clearly tapping the moisture, but it did form right on the boundary as east of the boundary had no convection, despite abundant moisture.
After tracking back to Glen Innes I lost Jimmy, but became interested in the lightning from the higher based stuff westwards. Outflow from our storm actually introduced some moisture, and after dark the whole area took off with lightning. The whole lot developed into a convective complex, but a small one.
On a side note to the lightning - a chaser was struck, the chaser wants to remain anomymous, it left several long red track marks radiating from the shoulder ( there is a picture and I hope that it gets posted one day ). The chaser was dazed for several minutes and has a very sore shoulder, but otherwise is OK. It was obviously not a direct strike. The same chaser 5 years ago in the very same town ( Glen Innes ), and not more than 500 yards away from Monday's bolt, had sparks fall all over their car as it passed under a telegraph pole that scored a direct hit. I was in the car behind.
Some pictures from Monday, the ones that are not video stills can be clicked for larger picture.
Just west of Ebor, storm is only 20 mins old at this stage.
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106g_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106g.jpg)
Looking back to the hail area
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106i_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106i.jpg)
Some of the structure west of Glen Innes around sunset
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106p_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106p.jpg)
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106y_t.jpg) (http://ozthunder.com/chase/271106y.jpg)
The hail that was falling near Ebor - as per Jimmy's calipers in post above.(Video Still )
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/glen_a.jpg)
CG up the road whilst I was in hail core ( video still )
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/glen_b.jpg)
Well after sunset , west of Glen Innes - now that is a base ! ( video still )
(http://ozthunder.com/chase/glen_e.jpg)
__________________
Michael
http://ozthunder.com
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Hi Michael,
I have a fair idea who it could be who was struck - hopefully he is ok. Ensure that a full medical check is undertaken as often the injuries of lightning occurs afterwards sometimes months down the track. Hopefully no internal damage.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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What a beauty of a storm, Michael T and Jimmy -- excellent captures and photos! My day briefly.....
My intention was to chase Tuesday, simply because it was closer to Sydney and things are too busy at work to afford the time off. Anyway, after speaking to Jimmy and Paul, decided it was a must chase day. Met up with Hector at Muswellbrook and headed north. With substantial towers going up we checked data and Murrurundi and saw the left mover....oh well, Plan B. Convection a fair way to the west was lightning active although the 10C DP at Tamworth did not impress us. The stuff developing over the southern part of the Nthn Tablelands looked ok but was clearly evaporating from the base up....moisture injection was needed. So,,,,we headed to Tamworth and then on the road to Gunnedah, since the anvil was somewhat impressive. Closer inspection revealed the base was high and there was a fair bit of lightning, however there were several updrafts at play which made shooting video difficult (CGs over a wide area). Anyway - after 12 minutes enough was enough and we decided to head back hoping convection to the south would fire on the way. It did and we watched a quite impressive right mover to our north, from somewhere near Wallabadah. Clear air CGs out the back! Sadly, had to press on home. The ideal target was just a little too far.
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The storms really only reached South West Rocks (on the Mid North Coast) on the 28th of November. The 26th, 27th, and 29th only brought light rain to South West Rocks from distant or nearby thunderstorms. I received two brief storms during the event and they both occurred on the evening of the 28th of November. The storms were very lightning active and even knocked the power out for a short period of time. Here is a summary of the rainfall received from this event:
26th 0.2mm
27th 0.1mm
28th 7.6mm
29th 0.1mm
TOTAL: 8mm
Storm development generally held off much later in the day then it usually does, with most development starting around 4-5pm and peaking at around 7-9pm, usually it does this about 2-3 hours earlier than the times just stated.
Erik.
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On a side note to the lightning - a chaser was struck, the chaser wants to remain anomymous, it left several long red track marks radiating from the shoulder ( there is a picture and I hope that it gets posted one day ). The chaser was dazed for several minutes and has a very sore shoulder, but otherwise is OK. It was obviously not a direct strike
I have to concur with Jimmy. Lightning strikes can leave long term physical and psycological effects that aren't apparent at first, many studies of strike victims have proven this. Even though this person might not have been hit by the full force it doesn't matter as damage to the nervous system and brain can occur even with glancing lightning strikes.
I honestly think the person should come forward and talk about it plainly so others can have more respect for the very real dangers we all face when we chase. We can get too complaicant too easily, especially younger or newer chasers.
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Apologies for not posting earlier on this thread topic - I'm in the process of doing the rounds through the forum topics finding what I have not replied to!
So...what a brilliant log of events! Thanks MT for the rundown on the satpic and boundary scenario, quite informative. Thoroughly enjoyed viewing the photos and albeit a bit late by several years :) it was a great read all the same.
* Did anyone eventually find out who the chaser was who got struck and if there was any after effects? Since it's been a couple of years almost since the event I would be interested to know anything about him since that happened?