Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Colin Maitland on 28 January 2009, 09:27:22 AM
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I was just reading through 9NSM and read this article.
We were complaining of the humidity and hot nights in Brisbane but I spare a thought for those in VIC and SA
The worlds weather has gone crazy.
The following story is a cut a paste from NSM
The forecast of four consecutive days of 40 degrees or more from tomorrow has Melbourne poised to break hot weather records.
Melbourne has not had three days in a row above 40 since 1959.
The temperature is expected to reach 38 degrees today before climbing to 41 tomorrow.
It if forecast the remain in the high 30s, low 40s, till Sunday when it's forecast to drop to relatively mild 31.
Senior Forecaster Terry Ryan says it also looks like it'll be one of the driest Januaries on record.
"It's very dry we've only had point 8 of a millimetre, the driest ever was 1932 at point 3 of a millimetre, so at this stage it's the second driest january in 150 years," he said.
South Australia is also expecting heatwaves. The South Australian Farmers Federation says it could have devastating effects on fruit crops.
A high of 41 degrees Celsius is expected today, with at least two more days of above 40 degree temperatures to follow.
The Federation's president, Peter White, says the heat will put extra pressure on water resources and may damage winegrapes and fruit.
"Certainly we've seen in the past where things like apples for example can actually get burnt on one side and downgrade the fruit considerably, so any fruit that is getting on towards ripe or whatever can be impacted quite severely by such hot weather over a period of time," he said.
"We don't mind some hot weather but this is starting to get a bit past the joke when you get a number of days in a row in excess of 40 degrees."
The weather bureau says most areas of the state will bear the brunt of the hot northerly winds, and only areas right down on the coast will drop below 40.
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We also have four days coming up of over 40, forecasted to peak 43 on Friday. Possible storms and showers on the weekend with Sunday still being crazy hot at 38. Our electricity (air con) bill is going to be a big one this quarter that's for sure!
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It is rare to see such a weather forecast for 4 consecutive days of 40C (104F) temperatures for southern New South Wales and Victoria. I have never seen such a forecast made before. Although more specific, the forecast for such high temperatures is limited to:-
Victoria:
Mallee encompassing places like Mildura and Swan Hill.
Wimmera encompassing places like Horsham.
North Central encompassing places like Shepparton.
North east encompassing places like Albury / Wodonga and Wangaratta.
Melbourne.
While it will still be warm to hot in the south west and south east and Gippsland, temperatures are not forecast to be as high as those north of the Great Dividing Range. It will be cooler in the north east highlands.
A forecast of 44C is made for Swan Hill and 43C for Mildura 28/1/2009.
New South Wales
South west Slopes and Riverina, encompassing places like Wagga Wagga, Griffith and Deniliquin.
Far west including Broken Hill region.
This should be watched to see if it eventuates.
Harley Pearman
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Sa a report that the last time Melbourne had 40+ for 3 days in a row was 1908.
Watching and waiting, from a relatively cool Sydney!
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*In Adelaide*
I had an absolutely horrendous sleep because of this charming weather. I cannot believe that it is STILL 33c at 5:30am! I can stand the hot days, hot nights are another story though. Adelaide's max today is 44c, I haven't seen them set a max that high for the city itself in a long time.
Melbourne has a max of 43 for tomorrow; both Adelaide and Melbourne had predicted maximums of 43 for New Years Eve in 2007. Adelaide's Kent Town observation site has its record highest temperature set at 44.2 for the month of January, and 44.3 for all months. There is a chance that this could be broken today. Interesting!
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The temp has exceeded 40 C in Adelaide already - at around 945am (local)
Attached is the sounding for Woomera this morning - 850hPA temp look to be about 28 so going to be plenty of 45+ degree maxes around.
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Oh how wonderful.
The BoM has just updated Adelaide's forecast, it now reads Min: 32.
Hahaha, that's just awful. They also slapped on another 2 40's for Saturday and Sunday. Fun!
Edit: It is official now. Adelaide's Kent Town observation site has broken its previous record of 44.3, the new record stands at 45.5!
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The bureau has forecast the furnace-like conditions to continue until at least Sunday, which will likely give the city six days in a row above 40 celsius for the first time since 1908, after Tuesday's top of 43.2c.
Wednesday's high was also closing in on the city's all-time record of 46.1c set on January 12, 1939.
Last March Adelaide had a record long heatwave with 15 consecutive days above 35c.
As the city itself sweltered, conditions further north were even worse with reports that some outback centres had temperatures above 50c, Reports have stated that the heat was so intense it has buckled railway lines.
Murray Bridge had the states high on Wednesday, reaching an unbearable 48 degrees, 19 above the mid summers average and their hottest day on record.
Adelaide is supposed to have an overnight temp of 32c, that ferocious.
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Victorian and South Australian temperatures for 28/1/2009
I have done some comparison of weather stations from the Bureau of Meteorology network in both South Australia and Victoria showing 3 pm temperatures. Some places have recorded some very high temperatures. All temperatures are 3pm figures 28/1/2009.
South Australia:
Northern Pastoral Districts
Maree and Tarcoola - 44C.
Gluepot and Nonning - 43C.
Roxby Downs - 43C.
Most other centres scored between 37 and 42C.
Northern Agricultural
Port Augusta - 45C (That's 114F)
Roseworthy, Snowtown North and Turretfield - 44C
Most other centres recorded 41 to 43C
Murray District
A place called Pallamana (Pallamana Airport) recorded 47.6C at 3pm. Here it was 16.4C at 6 am. It hit 40C at 11 am and was still 46C at 4 pm.
Murray Bridge - 46C.
Temperatures of 44C were common in this area.
Western Agricultural District
Ceduna, Cleve, topped 45C
Kyancutta - 46C.
Nullabor - 45C.
Wudinna Airport - 46C.
Maximum temperatures ranged from 34C to 46C (Depending on location from the coast). A place called Neptune Island had 28C due to easterly winds.
Adelaide
The city varied from 33C at Hindmarsh Island with a southerly to 45C at Edinburgh and Strathalbyn. Adelaide City had 44C.
South East
Top temperatures were 45C at Keith and Meningie while it was just 32C at Robe. Wind direction played a big part on temperatures here.
Victoria:
Hottest towns and cities for this state include:-
Ouyen 44C - (Mallee)
Nhill 44C - (Mallee)
Hopetoun Airport 43C - (Mallee)
Horsham 43C - (Wimmera)
Longerenong 43C - (Wimmera)
Casterton 43C - (Western District)
Melbourne City - 43C
Echuca 43C - (Northern Country)
Kerang 43C - (Northern Country)
Geelong 42C - (Central)
The western, northern and north western regions recorded the highest temperatures for the state.
This is interesting, some places had 40 degree temperatures but with dew points in the negatives such as Stawell 41C but with a dew point of Minus 3 and Kanagulk 42C but with a dewpoint of Minus 8. I have never seen this recorded at so many weather stations. I did not know dewpoints in the negatives were possible.
New South Wales:
The hottest places were in the south west around Ivanhoe 43C, Deniliquin 42C, Balranald 41C. Most places were within the 38 to 41C range in this area which is not as extreme as Victoria and South Australia.
(Bureau of Meteorology, Daily Weather Bulletins and statistics for South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, 3 pm 28/1/2009).
Harley Pearman
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Right now here it's 8:24pm and still 38.7 degrees. At 7:30pm it was still 40.3 degrees. It's HOT!
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Harley - negative DPs are quite common with dry airmasses though more common in winter and spring.
Thunderstorms have been occurring through many districts of SA north of Adelaide, with warnings out since about 4pm. Hail has been reported at Jamestown east of Port Pirie.
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Sorry, could not help it, but I think the cat has the right idea.
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It is so hot and dry, the tree's chase the dogs. The Budawang fire is going as they say, done around 1800 ha so far in 8 days, started with lightening Tuesday week ago, had a lot of smoke earlier on but was blown away now, so one can breathe and the temps are dropping as well, thank god for that. The Snowy's would be the place to be right now.
As for records, it would have been that hot in the late 1800's and early 1900, I had an old map with floods for the Hawkesbury river, there where none for about 35 years and only a few for another 10 years or so, it is dry country, we might have been spoiled by 'a run of 'wet weather'.
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This news item from Adelaide shows the effect of heat on the train tracks only too well. Glad I have moved to Sydney at the moment!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24975204-2682,00.html
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There are some messy storms firing up closer and closer to Adelaide. This day sure has been something to remember...
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The attached 850hPa temperature chart gives a good idea of the extent of the heat during the 28th Jan. It is the GFS analysis at 06z. adding 17 C to the 850 temps gives a good idea of surface maxes. Locally, some places will get 1-2 C more than that which is what we saw with temps reching close to 48.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/maps/2009012806temp0850.png)
Adelaide has had its "hottest night on record" after its 2nd hottest day on record.
The Weather Bureau says Adelaide has set a new record for the hottest overnight minimum temperature.
The overnight low was 33.9 degrees Celsius just after midnight.
But forecaster Mark Anolak says people sweltered in temperatures well above that throughout the night.
"Most of the night we were sitting on 36, 37 degrees, it won't take very long to get to 40 and I think, sort of looking at late morning we'll be looking at low 40s," he said.
- ABC
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it is not real time, but from the official site....
edit:
Highest daily maximum temperatures for Australia - 27 January 2009
Prepared at 03:15 GMT on Wednesday 28 January 2009
Rank Value
(°C) Station Name State Station Number Altitude
(m) Latitude
(°) Longitude
(°) QF
1 46.6 MARREE COMPARISON SA 17031 50 -29.65 138.06 00
2 45.6 MARREE AERO SA 17126 50 -29.66 138.07 00
3 45.5 TARCOOLA AERO SA 16098 123 -30.71 134.58 00
4 45.4 KYANCUTTA SA 18044 57 -33.13 135.56 00
5 45.1 PORT AUGUSTA AERO SA 18201 14 -32.51 137.71 00
6 45.0 WUDINNA AERO SA 18083 86 -33.04 135.45 00
6 45.0 POONCARIE MAIL AGENCY NSW 47029 53 -33.39 142.57 00
6 45.0 LEIGH CREEK AIRPORT SA 17110 259 -30.60 138.42 00
9 44.8 CEDUNA AMO SA 18012 15 -32.13 133.70 00
10 44.5 PORT PIRIE NYRSTAR COMPARISON SA 21043 4 -33.17 138.01 00
Records for Australia in January
Rank Value
(°C) Date
Station Name State Station Number Altitude
(m) Latitude
(°) Longitude
(°)
1 50.7 02 January 1960 OODNADATTA AIRPORT SA 17043 117 -27.56 135.45
2 50.3 03 January 1960 OODNADATTA AIRPORT SA 17043 117 -27.56 135.45
3 49.8 03 January 1960 MUNDRABILLA STATION WA 11008 20 -31.84 127.86
3 49.8 13 January 1979 FORREST AERO WA 11004 156 -30.84 128.11
5 49.7 10 January 1939 MENINDEE POST OFFICE NSW 47019 61 -32.39 142.42
also this might be interesting
edit: hope it is that, what you meant, Jimmy.
Latest Weather Observations for Wilsons Promontory
Issued at 1:05 pm EDT Thursday 29 January 2009
About weather observations | Map of weather stations | Latest weather observations for VIC
Station Details ID: 085096 Name: WILSONS PROMONTORY LIGHTHOUSE Lat: -39.13 Lon: 146.42 Height: 95.0 m
Data from the previous 72 hours. | See also: Recent months at Wilsons Promontory
Date/Time
EDT Temp App
Temp Dew
Point Rel
Hum Delta-T Wind Press
QNH Press
MSL Rain
since 9 am
Dir Speed Gust Speed Gust
°C °C °C % °C km/h knots hPa hPa mm
29/01:00pm 39.8 37.3 11.0 18 17.3 NNW 15 41 8 22 1009.8 - 0.0
29/12:30pm 39.5 36.5 10.8 18 17.2 WNW 17 46 9 25 1010.0 - 0.0
29/12:03pm 38.8 33.6 10.2 18 16.9 W 28 52 15 28 1009.8 - 0.0
29/12:00pm 38.8 34.3 10.2 18 16.9 W 24 43 13 23 1009.9 1009.7 0.0
29/11:30am 38.5 34.6 10.8 19 16.5 WNW 22 44 12 24 1009.9 - 0.0
29/11:00am 38.4 35.4 10.7 19 16.5 NW 17 37 9 20 1009.7 - 0.0
29/10:30am 38.0 35.1 11.1 20 16.1 NW 17 41 9 22 1009.6 - 0.0
29/10:00am 37.5 32.0 10.7 20 15.9 NW 30 50 16 27 1009.6 - 0.0
29/09:57am 37.7 32.7 10.9 20 15.9 NNW 28 50 15 27 1009.6 - 0.0
29/09:30am 37.2 32.5 10.5 20 15.8 NW 26 57 14 31 1009.7 - 0.0
29/09:00am 36.7 30.5 10.1 20 15.6 NW 33 61 18 33 1009.7 1009.5 0.0
29/08:30am 36.3 29.6 9.8 20 15.4 NNW 35 56 19 30 1009.6 - 0.0
29/08:00am 36.1 29.0 9.6 20 15.4 NNW 37 69 20 37 1009.6 - 0.0
29/07:30am 36.1 29.8 9.6 20 15.4 NNW 33 52 18 28 1009.4 - 0.0
29/07:00am 36.0 29.4 8.7 19 15.6 NNW 33 67 18 36 1009.3 - 0.0
29/06:30am 35.8 29.2 8.6 19 15.5 NNW 33 61 18 33 1009.1 - 0.0
29/06:00am 35.6 29.0 8.4 19 15.5 NNW 33 59 18 32 1009.1 1008.9 0.0
29/05:30am 35.3 28.6 9.7 21 14.8 NNW 35 57 19 31 1008.9 - 0.0
29/05:28am 35.1 28.0 9.5 21 14.8 NNW 37 57 20 31 1008.8 - 0.0
29/05:19am 34.9 28.7 10.0 22 14.4 NNW 33 48 18 26 1008.8 - 0.0
29/05:05am 29.9 25.7 13.6 36 9.8 NNW 28 46 15 25 1008.6 - 0.0
29/05:00am 22.4 19.5 16.0 67 3.9 N 26 37 14 20 1008.6 - 0.0
29/04:30am 20.8 17.5 17.0 79 2.3 NNE 30 32 16 17 1008.5 - 0.0
29/04:00am 20.4 17.6 17.4 83 1.8 NNE 28 32 15 17 1008.8 - 0.0
29/03:30am 20.4 17.6 17.4 83 1.8 NNE 28 32 15 17 1008.8 - 0.0
29/03:00am 21.1 17.2 16.9 77 2.6 NNE 33 37 18 20 1008.9 1008.7 0.0
29/02:30am 21.7 16.8 16.4 72 3.2 NNE 37 39 20 21 1009.1 - 0.0
29/02:00am 22.7 17.6 15.8 65 4.2 NNE 37 41 20 22 1009.4 - 0.0
29/01:30am 22.8 17.4 15.9 65 4.2 NNE 39 44 21 24 1009.8 - 0.0
29/01:00am 24.2 19.0 14.6 55 5.7 NNE 35 41 19 22 1010.2 - 0.0
29/12:30am 28.0 21.5 10.2 33 10.0 NNE 35 41 19 22 1010.3 - 0.0
29/12:00am 30.5 22.6 6.4 22 12.9 N 37 52 20 28 1010.6 1010.4 0.0
Date/Time
EDT Temp App
Temp Dew
Point Rel
Hum Delta-T Wind Press
QNH Press
MSL Rain
since 9 am
Dir Speed Gust Speed Gust
°C °C °C % °C km/h knots hPa hPa mm
28/11:30pm 28.5 21.6 8.7 29 10.9 NNE 35 48 19 26 1010.9 - 0.0
28/11:00pm 24.0 18.4 14.4 55 5.7 NNE 37 44 20 24 1011.1 - 0.0
28/10:30pm 25.8 19.8 13.3 46 7.3 NNE 37 46 20 25 1011.3 - 0.0
28/10:00pm 25.4 19.6 13.9 49 6.8 NNE 37 44 20 24 1011.3 - 0.0
28/09:30pm 25.9 20.2 13.1 45 7.5 NNE 35 43 19 23 1011.2 - 0.0
28/09:00pm 25.6 20.1 13.5 47 7.1 NNE 35 44 19 24 1011.2 1011.0 0.0
28/08:30pm 24.3 18.2 14.1 53 6.0 NNE 39 46 21 25 1011.1 - 0.0
28/08:00pm 24.9 18.5 14.4 52 6.3 NNE 41 46 22 25 1010.8 - 0.0
28/07:30pm 23.3 17.3 15.4 61 4.8 NNE 41 46 22 25 1010.7 - 0.0
28/07:00pm 22.1 17.4 15.9 68 3.7 NNE 35 43 19 23 1010.7 - 0.0
28/06:30pm 20.6 16.4 17.2 81 2.1 NNE 35 37 19 20 1010.7 - 0.0
28/06:00pm 20.0 15.9 17.4 85 1.6 NNE 35 39 19 21 1010.8 1010.6 0.0
28/05:30pm 20.2 16.7 17.4 84 1.7 NNE 32 35 17 19 1010.6 - 0.0
28/05:00pm 19.9 16.4 18.0 89 1.2 NNE 33 39 18 21 1010.4 - 0.0
28/04:30pm 19.0 15.8 18.5 97 0.3 NNE 33 37 18 20 1010.3 - 0.0
28/04:00pm 19.0 15.5 18.7 98 0.2 NNE 35 37 19 20 1010.5 - 0.0
28/03:30pm 18.9 15.2 18.4 97 0.3 NNE 35 37 19 20 1010.9 - 0.0
28/03:00pm 18.9 15.5 18.1 95 0.5 NNE 33 35 18 19 1011.1 1010.9 0.0
28/02:30pm 18.8 15.0 18.0 95 0.5 NNE 35 37 19 20 1011.1 - 0.0
28/02:00pm 18.9 15.4 17.9 94 0.6 NNE 33 37 18 20 1011.2 - 0.0
28/01:30pm 19.1 15.7 18.1 94 0.6 NNE 33 35 18 19 1011.3 - 0.0
28/01:00pm 19.0 15.6 17.7 92 0.8 NNE 32 33 17 18 1011.4 - 0.0
28/12:30pm 19.3 17.4 18.5 95 0.5 NNE 26 30 14 16 1011.7 - 0.0
28/12:00pm 19.1 17.9 18.4 96 0.4 NNE 22 24 12 13 1012.2 1012.0 0.0
28/11:30am 18.5 17.0 18.5 100 0.0 NNE 24 28 13 15 1012.1 - 0.0
28/11:00am 18.5 17.0 18.5 100 0.0 NNE 24 28 13 15 1012.3 - 0.0
28/10:30am 17.6 12.8 17.6 100 0.0 NNE 39 43 21 23 1011.9 - 0.0
28/10:00am 17.5 12.3 17.5 100 0.0 NNE 41 44 22 24 1011.8 - 0.0
28/09:30am 17.3 12.8 17.3 100 0.0 NNE 37 43 20 23 1012.0 - 0.0
28/09:00am 17.2 12.6 17.2 100 0.0 NNE 37 41 20 22 1012.1 1011.9 0.4
28/08:30am 17.3 13.2 17.3 100 0.0 NNE 35 37 19 20 1012.2 - 0.4
28/08:00am 17.2 - 17.4 - 17.2 NNE 33 37 18 20 1012.2 - 0.4
28/07:30am 17.2 13.0 17.2 100 0.0 NNE 35 37 19 20 1012.0 - 0.4
28/07:00am 16.7 12.9 16.7 100 0.0 NNE 32 35 17 19 1012.0 - 0.4
28/06:30am 16.7 - - - - NE 28 28 15 15 1012.1 - 0.4
28/06:00am 16.2 - - - - NNE 24 24 13 13 1011.9 1011.7 0.2
28/05:30am 16.3 - - - - NNE 24 28 13 15 1011.7 - 0.2
28/05:00am 16.3 - - - - NNE 20 26 11 14 1011.6 - 0.2
28/04:30am 16.6 - - - - NNE 17 20 9 11 1011.9 - 0.2
28/04:00am 16.7 - - - - N 19 24 10 13 1011.7 - 0.2
28/03:30am 16.6 - - - - NNE 28 30 15 16 1011.5 - 0.2
28/03:00am 16.5 - - - - NNE 28 32 15 17 1011.9 1011.7 0.2
28/02:30am 16.4 - - - - NNE 26 30 14 16 1012.2 - 0.2
28/02:00am 16.2 13.7 16.2 100 0.0 NNE 24 26 13 14 1012.5 - 0.0
28/01:30am 16.3 16.3 16.3 100 0.0 N 11 15 6 8 1013.3 - 0.0
28/01:00am 16.5 17.0 16.5 100 0.0 N 9 13 5 7 1013.6 - 0.0
28/12:30am 16.6 15.0 16.6 100 0.0 NNE 20 24 11 13 1013.4 - 0.0
28/12:00am 17.0 14.1 17.0 100 0.0 NNE 28 32 15 17 1013.2 1013.0 0.0
Date/Time
EDT Temp App
Temp Dew
Point Rel
Hum Delta-T Wind Press
QNH Press
MSL Rain
since 9 am
Dir Speed Gust Speed Gust
°C °C °C % °C km/h knots hPa hPa mm
27/11:30pm 17.0 14.5 17.0 100 0.0 NNE 26 28 14 15 1013.3 - 0.0
27/11:00pm 16.9 13.9 16.9 100 0.0 NNE 28 30 15 16 1013.4 - 0.0
27/10:30pm 17.1 13.8 17.1 100 0.0 NNE 30 32 16 17 1013.4 - 0.0
27/10:00pm 17.2 14.4 17.2 100 0.0 NNE 28 30 15 16 1013.8 - 0.0
27/09:30pm 17.4 15.0 17.4 100 0.0 NNE 26 28 14 15 1014.1 - 0.0
27/09:00pm 17.4 15.0 17.4 100 0.0 NNE 26 28 14 15 1014.1 1013.9 0.0
27/08:30pm 17.6 14.5 17.6 100 0.0 NNE 30 32 16 17 1014.0 - 0.0
27/08:00pm 17.9 15.0 17.9 100 0.0 NNE 30 33 16 18 1014.0 - 0.0
27/07:30pm 18.1 14.9 18.1 100 0.0 NNE 32 35 17 19 1013.8 - 0.0
27/07:00pm 18.3 15.4 18.0 98 0.2 NNE 30 33 16 18 1013.9 - 0.0
27/06:30pm 18.7 15.8 17.9 95 0.5 NNE 30 32 16 17 1014.1 - 0.0
27/06:00pm 18.6 16.4 17.8 95 0.5 NE 26 28 14 15 1014.4 1014.2 0.0
temps raise and fall......
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I don't know how a lot people would have slept last night in Adelaide as they sweltered through its hottest night on record, with the temperature only dipping to 33.9 degrees.
The temp topped on Wednesday of 45.7c, the weather bureau said the overnight minimum came just after midnight (CDT).
The previous record was the 33.5c recorded on January 1, 1982.
By 5am the mercury had climbed back to 37c, on the way to a forecast top for Thursday of 44.
I haven't found the country towns yet, but it is reported that some were above 50c. The closet to 50 was at this stage was Murray Bridge with the states high on Wednesday, reaching an unbearable 48 degrees. That is agonizing just thinking about it. But I just have not come accross the official records, it would be of interest so as to keep a set for yourself.
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Hi,
I would like to know the sources and verification of these 50C temperatures as that is rather extreme! They would also be record territory since previous 50+ degree C records have been discounted ie Cloncurry 53.1C and Bourke 52.8C.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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That is why I stated, "It has been reported"
I was quoting from nine NSM were the report stated
"But as the city sweltered, conditions further north were even worse with some outback centres reporting temperatures above 50c, prompting health authorities to urge all South Australians to take extreme care."
As I said I cant find the outback centres they are talking about, and if anyone can I would like to see the data to keep as a personal record.
It was reported that Murray Bridge had 48c but I couldnt find that data to source that out either. ( it only shows around 46C)
So if you can help I would be happy. If not it has to go down as "hear say", and unconfirmed .
Below is the full story as it appeared on ninemsn 28/01/09
Adelaide's temperature topped 45 degrees on Wednesday with the city heading for its hottest week in 100 years.
The furnace-like conditions were forecast to continue until at least Sunday, likely giving the city six days in a row above 40 celsius for the first time since 1908, after Tuesday's top of 43.2c.
Wednesday's high was also closing in on the city's all-time record of 46.1c set on January 12, 1939.
Last March Adelaide had a record long heatwave with 15 consecutive days above 35c.
But as the city sweltered, conditions further north were even worse with some outback centres reporting temperatures above 50c, prompting health authorities to urge all South Australians to take extreme care.
SA's chief medical officer Paddy Phillips said the elderly, babies and young children were most at risk.
"South Australia is now braced for the first heatwave of the year, and we're advising people to take precautions during the extreme heat to remain cool and hydrated," Professor Phillips said.
Firefighters were on high alert across SA while power authorities said the state's electricity network was coping reasonably well with the high demand.
ETSA Utilities reported 15 outages, the worst involving about 7,500 homes in the Adelaide Hills and another cutting power to about 2,000 customers in the city's north-western suburbs.
The Country Fire Service reported two bushfires, one on Kangaroo Island and one near Coonalpyn, south-east of Adelaide.
Police said they had 40 operation Nomad patrols on duty, checking on people considered at risk of starting fires.
"Offenders should expect zero tolerance from us if they choose to deliberately or negligently start bushfires," said Chief Superintendent Silvio Amoroso.
"Out of the 199 fires in the past fortnight, 18 have been deliberately lit, 13 due to negligent acts".
The heat also disrupted train services, buckling the tracks in several areas. While at Gawler, north of the city, Thoroughbred Racing SA cancelled an eight-race meeting, citing the welfare of both the horses and riders.
Acting chief executive Sean Clarkson said officials would continue to monitor conditions ahead of Saturday's planned meetings at Morphettville in Adelaide and at Ceduna on the west coast.
The weather bureau said the temperature overnight would only fall to 32c with the top on Thursday likely to be 44c.
The first day under 40c was forecast to be Monday with a top of 39c tipped.
Cheers
Col
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More than likely it was quoting reports from cattle stations & amatuer observers which I have also heard saying obs over 50C. These are obviously not official and some are probably just read from a thermometer under the verandah lol....
BOM's official highest yesterday was Pallamana's 47.8C.
'Only' reached 43.4C here today in Adelaide, so a bit of relief lol....
the heatwave so far...
Mon 26th 36.6
Tues 27th 43.2
Wed 28th 45.7
Thurs 29th 43.4
forecast to come:
Fri 30th 42
Sat 31st 40
Sun 1st 40
Mon 2nd 39
Tues 3rd 38
Wed 4th 38
Thurs 5th 40
maybe even more???
Certainly going to rank up there and if not beat 1939 and 1908, and at least will be one to tell the grandkiddies about down the track.... and I thought March 2008 was bad.......
I should add to that were quite a few storms last night in SA's Mid North and Yorke Peninsula... which managed to just make it down to Adelaide's northern suburbs.... havent had time to put many online yet or full res versions, but here's a couple of samples...
http://www.weatherchase.net/uploads/2009/280109/IMG_3814_copy.jpg
http://www.weatherchase.net/uploads/2009/280109/IMG_3827_copy.jpg
http://www.weatherchase.net/uploads/2009/280109/IMG_3838_copy.jpg
Cheers
Tim.
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So far the only 50+c that I have found for South Australia was at Oodnatta on the 2nd of January 1960
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann
High Max (°C)
50.7 46.8 44.9 42.1 35.0 32.8 32.2 36.5 40.5 45.4 47.3 48.3 50.7
Low Max (°C)
15.7 16.8 17.3 14.2 11.1 10.7 9.5 9.4 12.0 15.0 13.3 20.5 9.4
High Min (°C)
34.2 33.4 31.1 28.2 20.8 19.5 18.9 22.3 24.9 29.3 32.2 32.7 34.2
Low Min (°C)
11.7 12.8 9.5 3.8 0.9 -2.6 -2.2 -0.2 2.2 3.4 9.6 11.3 -2.6
High Rain (mm)
104.0 200.0 55.4 44.0 56.6 40.0 45.5 41.4 29.2 36.0 46.0 47.0 200.0
the source of this information is found at http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=17043, (if it is correct)
So far, the claims of 50+c for the 28/01/09 have not been confirmed, that is if they did occur.
Still hot as hell at 40+c, not to take anything away from those persevering the heat anywhere.
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Looking forward to seeing a storm or two. The cloud front has just started moving over Victoria today.
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A few places seemed to suddenly get hotter after 1:30am before then going back down. Strange.
However I notice some places on the Eyre Peninsula have had a cool change go through, with a small band of rainfall just east of Adelaide at the moment. Either it is very small in effect and the dominant northerlies will kick in again tomorrow or they might get some relief.
Port Lincoln Airport:
5:15pm 42.6
5:20pm 35.0
5:30pm 32.1
Though Adelaide still at 35.8. Dropped 5 degrees between 7:30 and 8:30 but still going to be a hot one from the look of it.
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I have not found any evidence of maximum temperatures reaching 50C during this event. The highest maximum temperature that I found was at Pallamana Airport (South Australia) as stated in my previous post.
On 29/1/2009, again South Australia had some rather hot locations such as:-
Pallamana Airport - Top of 45.3C at 3.21 pm. Amazing, it was 40.4C at 9 am, then peaked at 45.3C at 3.21C and at 8 pm, it was still 40.8C here. That is more than 11 hours where the daytime temperature was over 40C.
Kyancutta and Murray Bridge - 45C
Edingburg and Edithburg - 44C
Keith West, Maree, Oodnadatta, Turretfield, Lameroo, Renmark and Snowtown - 43C
Adelaide - 42C
These are the 3pm readings.
Victoria
Again much of the state sweltered with Geelong scoring 45C. Other 3 pm temperature readings include:-
Horsham and Mortlake -44C
East Sale, Nhill, Ouyen, Melbourne and Warracknabeal - 43C
Echuca, Hopetoun, Kerang and Mildura - 42.
It reached 41.5C at Albury as well which is a late afternoon reading. Like 28/1/2009, the peak temperature of over 40C occurred later than 3 pm. That is 2 days in a row of 40C temperatures here.
A large number of places reached at least the low 40S.
In addition, I am also aware of 2 bushfires burning in this state but with more 40C temperatures and low humidity, it does not bode too well for 30/1/2009.
Harley Pearman
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Tasmania has recorded its highest temperature ever of 41.5 at Flinders Island - report from ABC below. It remained over 40 for about 4 hours.
Meanwhile - on the other side of the HIGH we've had coastal showers since Sunday and maxes in the high 20s. Close to 70mm now since Sunday.
Tasmania has recorded its highest-ever temperature.
Flinders Island airport broke the three-decade-old record, reaching 41.5 degrees just before 4:00pm AEDT.
The previous high was 40.8 degrees, set in Hobart in 1976.
Around Tasmania temperatures have been well above average.
Launceston Airport reached 37.2 degrees, making it the hottest day there since World War II.
In the north-west, Marrawah recorded 33 degrees, while at Fingal in the north-east the temperature hit 40.6 degrees."
Bureau forecaster Ray Evans says the hot conditions will continue on Friday, especially for northern Tasmania.
"We are expecting maximum temperatures very similar to today for the major provincial centres," he said.
"Hobart should reach 29, Launceston 35 and Burnie and Devonport 27 tomorrow and continuing fine weather.
"As we get into Saturday, you're probably looking at temperatures mitigating just a little bit about parts of the west, south and east coast, but the central north will stay up around 33 degrees."
- ABC
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/maps/2009012906temp0850.png)
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Hi,
Up until now, the discussion has centred on the current conditions and forecasts of extreme heat. I would like to add that this massive region of extensive and prolonged heating has to give to some monsoonal activity in my opinion as the atmosphere slowly begins to cool down. We'll see what February holds.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Not the least surprised, but Penny Wong has come out drawing the long bow.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/heatwave-shows-climate-scientists-are-right-wong-says/1419596.aspx
Senator Wong said this was the sort of weather scientists had been warning about.
"Obviously you have to look on a much longer time frame than week to week, but what we do know is that 11 of the hottest years in history have been in the last 12 (years)," Ms Wong said.
"And we also know, particularly in the southern part of Australia, that we've seen less rainfall.
"All of this is consistent with climate change and all of this is consistent with what scientists told us would happen."
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I agree Jimmy. Normally these sort of conditions over northern Australia generate a heat low and the models are forecasting this scenario (hence the forecast of showers and storms). However, consistent with nature's balancing act, I think we'll see quite a substantial event when this pattern finally breaks down - whether that be in the form of a strong southerly movement of monsoonal activity or a strong storm outbreak - time will tell. I think the end to the heatwave (which was part of the conditions leading up to the Ash Wednesday bushfires of 1983) was quite spectacular. I recall some quite substantial flooding in southern Victoria - based on my childhood memories alone - I don't have any weather information to support this - does any one else care to comment (who may be slightly older than I) based on either data or memories?
Macca
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I have just been reading The Border Mail (Albury)...
Wangaratta-based weather forecaster John Moore predicts some storm activity next month.
"At the moment we are experiencing the hottest period since 1908 and in February 1908 Wangaratta had 90mm of rain for that month, so it is possible to have some heavy falls in February," he said.
"The fact is the drought conditions at the moment and the lack of moisture in the air to cool things down means we will experience this heat for the next two weeks".
Surely something will have to give. This is our third day of reaching 40+ degrees (right now it's 40.6). Tomorrow is set to get to 44, and Sunday 42.
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Tasmania has broken its highest ever temp again today.....
Tasmania has set a record high temperature for the second day in a row.
In the state's Midlands, the temperature in the town of Ross has hit 41.6 degrees.
Yesterday the mercury reached record levels on Flinders Island.
Melanie Webb from the Bureau of Meteorology says St Helens on the east coast has recorded 41 degrees, and Fingal in the north east 41.3.
She says it's the second day in a row Fingal's temperature has been above 40, only the second time that's ever happened in Tasmania.
But she's told ABC Local Radio the Midlands have been the hottest.
"The hottest today was 41.6 at Ross and that beats the state maximum record of yesterday, 41.5 at Flinders Island."
- ABC
EDIT: Scamander (on the NE Coast of Tas) max to 1500 confirmed at 42.2
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Hi Macca,
I think the end to the heatwave (which was part of the conditions leading up to the Ash Wednesday bushfires of 1983) was quite spectacular. I recall some quite substantial flooding in southern Victoria - based on my childhood memories alone - I don't have any weather information to support this - does any one else care to comment (who may be slightly older than I) based on either data or memories?
The 1983 episode if my memory serves me correctly seems to have occurred one month later than this event - heat waves in February and early march - yes low 40's in early March across South Australia and Victoria and then followed by that awesome monsoonal troughs! February was also hot of course and so was January! Storm wise it was as bad if not worse than this summer so I can some similarities!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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It is interest to note that this current weather event has resulted in each state or territory having a coastal wind warnings. Flood warnings etc. There is fires, floods, monsoonal activity. What will the end result be. Definately a history making event that we are witnessing.
This page last updated at:-
Friday January 30 2009 07:25 UTC (GMT) -- January 30 2009 18:25 EDT -- January 30 2009 17:55 CDT -- January 30 2009 16:25 WDT --
NSW and ACT
* Warnings current:
* Coastal Wind Warning 1,
* Fire Weather Warning 1,
* Flood Warning - Paroo River.
Northern Territory
* Warnings current:
* Severe Weather Warning 1,
* Flood Threat Advice.
Queensland
* Warnings current:
* Ocean Wind Warning 1,
* Coastal Wind Warning 1,
* Flood Warning - Tully River,
* Flood Warning - Herbert River,
* Flood Warning - Diamantina River,
* Flood Warning - Georgina/Eyre Ck,
* Flood Warning - Gulf Rivers,
* Queensland flood warning summary.
South Australia
* Warnings current:
* Coastal Wind Warning 1,
* Ocean Wind Warning,
* Fire Ban Advice,
* Inland Flood Warning.
Tasmania
* Warnings current:
* Coastal wind warning 1,
* Boating Weather - Wind Alert SW and Central Plateau Lakes,
* Fire Weather Warning - 2.
Victoria
* Warnings current:
* Coastal Waters Wind Warning for Victorian waters between Mallacoota and 60nm east of Gabo Island,
* Ocean Wind Warning,
* Fire Weather Warning for Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts,
* Fire Ban.
Western Australia
* Warnings current:
* Ocean Wind Warning 1,
* Ocean Wind Warning 2,
* Western Australia Flood Summary,
* Flood Watch - Goldfields District,
* Flood Warning - Gascoyne River Catchment,
* Flood Warning - Fitzroy River Catchment.
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/warnings.shtml
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A good point has been raised of this current heatwave so I have been looking at some historical records.
January 1939 Conditions
After the fires and heat of January 1939, I found an old front page newspaper article dated 16 February 1939 that indicates that heavy rain fell over Victoria on that day, 16 February 1939. That can be found at:-
http://www.abc.net.au/blackfriday/timeline/html_tl_1939_32.htm
You need to scroll to 1939 and then scroll along the headings to find the various storeys and weather conditions during this period.
I also found at another web site via Victoria Department of Natural Resources and Environment that indicates the weather for Melbourne leading up to the Black Friday conditions. It states Melbourne had:-
43.1C on 8/1/1939.
44.7C on 10/1/1939.
Melbourne experienced milder conditions on the 11 and 12 then Black Friday when it reached 45.6C on 13/1/1939. That is the highest official temperature for Melbourne.
It came ahead of a cold front that brought no rain but a cooler change. However the state suffered that bushfire outbreak with the worst being east and north east of Melbourne.
There was a general heatwave during the period 6 to 13 January 1939 but big rains came one month later.
1983 - The heat and drought of January and February did start to break in March 1983 with general rains around the middle of the month. Living in Albury at the time, I do remember early March being very hot and still remember 3 days of rain in a row around the middle of the month across much of the state. Thereafter, the drought broke after good rains returned.
There is a known history of the state experiencing heatwaves like this followed by big rains a little later on. This is something to watch.
30/1/2009:
From http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/vic/20090130.shtml
Melbourne sets heatwave record 30/1/2009
Hightlights that Melbourne has endured 3 days of above 43C for the first time in recorded history.
It also highlights Melbourne's longest heatwave being 15 to 20 January 1908. That has not been broken.
However, the highest temperature of 13/1/1939 being 45.6C has also not been broken. It reached 43.4C on 28/1/09, 44.3C on 29/1/09 and 45.1C at 4.27 pm on 30/1/09.
Note:- The article mentions 44.2C at 2.27 pm 30/1/09 but it did reach 45.1C 2 hours later. A cool change immediately after 4.27 pm dropped the temperature to 37.1C at 4.35 pm (Weather Observation for the Melbourne Area, 4.35 pm Bureau of Meteorology 30/1/2009)
Other maximum temperatures for Melbourne include 44.2C at Melbourne Airport, 45C at Avalon, 44.4C at Essendon Airport, 44.8C at Laverton and 44C at Viewbank.
Across Victoria, very high temperatures prevailed again for 30/1/09. These are the 3 pm readings including:-
45C at Kerang
44C at Hopetoun, Ouyen, Swan Hill and Walpeup.
43C at East Sale, Echuca, Edenhope Airport, Kanagulk, Nhill, Warracknabeal.
42C at Benalla, Mt Gellibrand AWS and Yarrawonga.
Many centres had 40 to 43C for the third consecutive day in a row.
(Daily Weather Bulletin for 3pm, Bureau of Meteorology, 30/1/2009)
At the same time, a large dangerous bushfire continues to burn near Branxholme in these conditions.
Additionally in South West New South Wales, just about all towns and cities reached 40C such as 42.7C at Albury (3rd day in a row of such temperatures). Other 3pm figures include 43C at Balranald, Hay and Ivanhoe.
Harley Pearman
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Thanks for all those stats and information Harley - excellent.
Here's the 850 hPa temp chart for the 30th - not surprisingly some high temps were also recorded in the Alpine regions.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/maps/2009013006temp0850.png)
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Adelaide's 5th day in a row reaching 40 has been achieved today.
I must say it bothered me the first two days, but now I'm getting used to it. :)
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I got an uneasy feeling were bound to see another super nova heatwave shortly quite possibly in either the 2nd or 3rd week of February here in South Australia... what worries me is that the conditions we've seen so far are an exact carbon copy of conditions prior to Ash Wednesday 1983 :-\
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Today was our fourth day of 40+ temps reaching 43.9 degrees. Right now at 7:30pm it is still 42.0 degrees!! Can't say I'm getting used to it! We went to Albury shopping today and have to say there are a lot of hot, bothered and grumpy people at the moment. I noticed some storms bubbling away over the mountains on the drive home about 3pm. We might get something brewing tomorrow if we are lucky, and have storms forecast for Monday.
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Just thought I'd update people on the situation over here in Adelaide....
Jan 25 - 30.4 ºC
Jan 26 - 36.6 ºC
Jan 27 - 43.2 ºC
Jan 28 - 45.7 ºC
Jan 29 - 43.4 ºC
Jan 30 - 43.1 ºC
Jan 31 - 41.1 ºC
Feb 1 - 40C
Feb 2 - 39C
Feb 3 - 38C
Feb 4 - 38C
Feb 5 - 37C
Feb 6 - 35C
Feb 7 - 30C
So yer we still have a week of this hell to go.... what makes the next 3+
days worse is that its also going to be humid....
Also, the SA Government finally got its act together today and in
conjunction with the SES and SA Health put out a HEAT HEALTH WARNING (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/sa_ses_message.shtml) -
Many people incl. myself also recieved an SMS of the warning this evening
from the government as well, although not exactly sure how they sent it &
how they worked out who gets it and doesnt....
Anyway the warning is obviously about 4 days late - considering the
unoffficial death toll is now 33 people... which surprisingly isnt
exactly making national news headlines?
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Thanks for the summary Tim. "only" 39.1 today so that's the end of the 40s but the rest of the week looks pretty horrible.
I noticed that warning yesterday too and apparently it went to people in the NT as well ? It did seem several days too late to me as well.
regards, Michael
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The state of Victoria was a state of two halves 31/1/2009. In this regard, a cooler change penetrated through the southern part of the state, at least to the ranges and Great Dividing Range which ended the heat. However, north of the Great Dividing Range, the heatwave continued.
To highlight this, the western district under that cool change experienced temperatures of between 20C and 33C with 21C at Portland. North of the Great Dividing Range, 3 pm temperatures were:-
Echuca, Ouyen and Swan Hill - 44C.
Hopetoun, Nhill and Yarrawonga - 43C.
Bendigo and Horsham - 42C.
Albury Wodonga - 42C
The 3 pm temperatures were a constant 40C to 44C across the north with no exceptional standouts.
In south west New South Wales, the same occurred including:-
Balranald and Deniliquin - 44C.
Corowa, Ivanhoe and Pooncarie - 43C.
In South Australia the heat continued including Adelaide. Some peak temperatures include:-
Keith West - 44C.
Keith, Kyancutta and Renmark - 43C.
Adelaide and Coonawarra - 42C.
It must be noted that the southerly change was making its presence felt in places such as Cafe Jaffa - 27C.
All temperatures are for 3 pm sourced from (3pm Daily Weather Bulletins, Bureau of Meteorology Weather Stations 31/1/2009).
A storey in "The Age - Melbourne" 1/2/2009, highlights the cost of the weather event being $100 million including 6 fatalities in Victoria. At the same time, a bushfire burns in Gippsland. Go to:-
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/2009/01/30/1232818733640.html
for a slide show showing the damage the fires caused during this weather event.
1 February 2009
Northern Victoria continues to suffer as 40C temperatures continue for the 5th day in a row. These include:-
Echuca, Kerang and Ouyen - 45C.
Hopetoun, Nhill, Shepparton and Swan Hill - 44C.
Mildura, Warracknabeal and Yarrawonga - 43C.
Albury Wodonga - 42C.
(All these places are into day 5 of these 40C temperatures in a row).
For New South Wales:-
Ivanhoe 44C
Balranald and Pooncarie 43C.
Corowa 42C
Wagga Wagga 41C
(All temperatures are for 3 pm sourced (3pm Daily Weather Bulletins, Bureau of Meteorology Weather Stations, 1/2/2009).
The good news here is that temperatures will start dropping throughout this week.
Harley Pearman
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Well there you go - Adelaide has topped 40 after 5pm local time 1st Feb. It must be unbearable with those high dew points today (16 past few obs before 5pm).
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Well there you go - Adelaide has topped 40 after 5pm local time 1st Feb. It must be unbearable with those high dew points today (16 past few obs before 5pm).
I was just coming to whine about that, after all the dry heat, this humid heat is something else. It's quite sticky. I mean, the least mother nature could do is give the city a storm (there are some, but they're north). >_>
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Day 5 of 40+ temps here has finally given way to some instability, although so far no relief from the heat.
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The heatwave has pushed further north and affects more or less New South Wales and to a lesser extent northern Victoria.
On 2 February 2009, some exceptionally high temperatures were recorded in south west New South Wales with the 3 pm readings including:-
Ivanhoe - 47C.
Ivanhoe Airport - 44C.
Wilcania Airport - 45C.
Wilcania - 44C.
The highest temperatures were in the western Riverina of New South Wales and far west. Fowlers Gap recorded 43C and Broken Hill 42C. Temperatures in the rest of the Riverina were between 36C and 43C with Hillston and Lake Cargelligo topping 43C.
Places like Albury Wodonga had a cooler top of 37C.
Thus the heat was concentrated mainly in the Riverina and far west of New South Wales.
It was slightly cooler in Adelaide on 36C.
In Victoria, Mildura scored 42C but generally the heat had eased through most of the state.
On 3 February 2009, the same regions of New South Wales continued to be hot with Ivanhoe scoring 44C, Pooncarie 43C and Broken Hill 41C. Generally at 3 pm most centres in the:-
South west topped between 40 - 43C.
Far south west up to 44C.
South west slopes 38 to 40C.
Examples include Griffith 40C, Hay 39C, Wagga Wagga 39C and Albury Wodonga 38C.
In Victoria, Mildura topped 39C, Swan Hill and Ouyen 37C.
It is noted that the heat pushed into the Central west of New South Wales with 38 to 40C being recorded at many centres.
Source (3 pm Daily Weather Bulletins, New South Wales and Victoria Bureau of Meteorology 2/2/2009 and 3/2/2009)
The weather forecast for many of the inland centres is for another burst of 40C heat until Saturday. It is interesting to note that the forecast is for some of this heat to reach western Sydney on Thursday with a top of 38C expected and Saturday and Sunday with 42C expected with a stronger cooler change for Sunday afternoon / evening that will end it.
On a separate matter to this topic, I have heard one news reader state that the heatwave has claimed up to 70 lives mainly the elderly making it Australia's deadliest weather related event for many years. To date, I have not found anything to back that statement up so I am not sure of the voracity of that claim made.
Harley Pearman
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It looks like you have to add NSW to the list. This was an extract from an aricle I was reading it says
Much of NSW will fry under scorching 40-plus temperatures at the weekend but a cool snap next week should provide eventual relief, cutting temperatures by 20 degrees.
NSW can expect hot weather on Thursday, with Penrith in Sydney's west forecast to hit 40 degrees celsius, while areas in the far west of the state could see the mercury reach the mid-40s.
The scorching temperatures will continue through the weekend, climaxing with 44 temperatures in Sydney's west on Sunday, and temperatures as high as 47 in the state's west.
A welcome southerly change will sweep across NSW later on Sunday, bringing an end to the heatwave.
Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Jake Phillips said everywhere was going to be hot in NSW.
I have downloaded the surf Temp chart for Sat 07/02/09
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The BoM have released a special climate statement for the heatwave - which will be updated when things cool down
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs17.pdf
And attached are the 850 temperatures forecast for Sat 5pm local time. Add about 17 C to get afternoon surface temps (in non-elevated areas) and it's going to be an extreme day !
MB
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This is an article from Bigpond news Today 05/02/09, relating to the heat waves in Australia this year,
Weather watchers warn Australians will have to get used to more heatwaves after the temperatures that have scorched the country's southeast so far this year.
While Tasmania experienced its highest temperature on record, much of Victoria and South Australia baked in temperatures well above 40 degrees - the highest being 48.2 at Kyancutta, SA, on January 28.
Victoria peaked at 45.8 degrees at Avalon Airport on January 29, then Charlton on January 31, falling short of the state's record of 47.2, while Adelaide also sweated through its warmest night on record, the mercury slipping to only 33.9 in the early hours of January 29.
Around the same time, RAAF Edinburgh, in the city's north, recorded a temperature of 41.7 degrees at 3.04am, fanned by strong winds.
'Such an event appears to be without known precedent in southern Australia,' a climate statement released by the Bureau of Meteorology on Wednesday said.
Climatologist David Jones said global warming, while a key issue, was not the sole reason for the heatwave.
'It's a complex discussion. What global warming does is . .. it increases the frequency of hot events and decreases the frequency or likelihood of a cold event,' Dr Jones said.
'It's about relative probability. Look back over the last decade in Australia, we've had one or two really cold spells but we've had many more really hot spells and that's what it's about.
'It's not saying this heatwave has been caused by global warming, it hasn't - we've had heatwaves in the past.
'But the likelihood of this has been increased by global warming, the severity of these events has probably been increased by global warming and the likelihood of seeing these in future will increase further as the globe warms.'
Dr Jones, acting head of the National Climate Centre, says it was anticipated Australia would experience a two- to four-degree celsius warming this century.
'We're going to be routinely seeing 45-degree temperatures in Australia come the end of this century under global warming,' he added.
'We're seeing large increases in heatwaves globally over the last 100 years. That's going to continue, it's going to accelerate and really ... people are going to have to get used to these sorts of heatwaves, they're going to become a lot more frequent.' ( end of article.)
Mean while, back in QLD, we have averaged in Brisbane Approx. high 20's-30C but very high humidity, which seems to makes everything heavy, and sweaty. By the looks of it, life jackets and learn to swim classes are the go for the rest of QLD. There is so much flooding and rain and it is heading its way down the coast. Rockhampton is now on what they call Cyclone rain watch.
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The heatwave has continued throughout southern and south western NSW during Wednesday and Thursday with no respite. I have been looking at temperature records and those from Weatherzone and note that:-
- Places like Albury has just experienced 11 days in a row where maximum temperatures have topped 37C. That is unprecedented. The maximum temperature at Albury reached 41C on 5/2/2009.
- Places Like Ivanhoe has had 8 days in a row where temperatures have topped at least 42C.
Maximum temperatures of between 38C and 44C were again common at 3 pm across the region on both days.
The worst affected areas for both days were the western Riverina, far south west New South Wales and western New South Wales as well as north western Victoria around Mildura and Swan Hill.
By the time this is over, more maximum temperature records may be set.
On 5/2/2009, some of the heat reached western Sydney again with Richmond topping 40.5C and Penrith 39C plus 37C in nearby regions.
Today - 6/2/09, Saturday - 7/2/09 and Sunday 8/2/09, it will continue with temperatures expected to reach 38C to the lower 40s across western Sydney before a stronger southerly change ends the current spell from late Sunday.
I have seen forecasts of 44C maximum temperatures for some places across inland New South Wales on Saturday and Sunday but with a cooler change crossing the southern part of the state throughout Sunday that will bring relief.
Harley Pearman
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John et al,
Not sure if I have hinted in other threads or even this thread, I must say in the past it was rare for the Bureau to forecast temperatures above 42C or 43C. Last Sunday, there was a forecast for Saturday at the time - 6 days out - and they were predicting 44C! That is insane! Now of course it has shifted to Sunday and Saturday still very hot.
I have never experienced or recall a heat wave of this nature. We have had a majority of temperatures in the near mid 30's or above in western Sydney throughout most of January and now February. Surely the temperatures of 44C on Sunday must be some sort of significant record for western Sydney even given it is February.
This is a heat trough from hell!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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This is a heat trough from hell!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
Too darn right Jimmy!
According to a few media reports going around today, NSW- in particular Western NSW will be the hottest place in the world next week. Temps will be expected to be up around 47ºc. I've been through a few days like that and there's not much choice other than staying inside in the air-cond! The hot winds on those days are really unbearable and feel like standing next to a blast furnace, especially when it's only 25ºc inside the house and you open the door and step outside lol.
I have a photo somewhere of my thermometer at 47ºc from two years ago. If it happens again I will take another and post it.
Roll on Autumn!
Shauno.
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Hi Jimmy,
there where 40+ degrees in Lansvale in feb of 1971 for 3 or 4 days running with a top of 46, it would have been a few more degrees higher where you live
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Hi Jimmy,
there where 40+ degrees in Lansvale in feb of 1971 for 3 or 4 days running with a top of 46, it would have been a few more degrees higher where you live
Is anyone able to substantiate this with figures from the Bureau of Meteorology for the western Sydney region?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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High temperatures for 6/2/2009
On 6/2/2009, some very high maximum temperatures were recorded across inland New South Wales as shown in the Bureau of Meteorology 3 pm Weather Bulletins:-
New South Wales:
Ivanhoe 45C, Pooncarie 45C, White Cliffs 44C, Wilcania 44C and Wilcania Airport 45C.
Other towns particularly in the far west scored between 38C and 43C.
The heat is entrenched in the Central West as well with the hottest location being 44C at Condobolin with 35C to 43C being common elsewhere.
The Riverina was also affected again with 44C at Hillston and 39C to 43C common at other localities.
The South West slopes continued to suffer with 44C at Quanialla, 43C at Wyalong and 41.6C at Albury. Temperatures of 38C to 42C were common again.
Metropolitan Sydney:
Following 39C and 40C at Penrith and Richmond and 38.6C where I live on 5/2/2009, it reached 41C at Penrith and Richmond. The heat has now reached parts of Western Sydney again for the second day in a row.
Victoria:
The heat is still entrenched across the northern parts of the state with 42C at Mildura and Ouyen and 41C at Kerang.
South Australia:
It reached 42.8C in Adelaide City and temperatures in the low 40S were common throughout.
(Daily Weather Bulletins 3 pm, Bureau of Meteorology 6/2/2009)
Saturday:
I have seen some very high maximum temperatures forecast for Saturday in New South Wales including 45C at Griffith, 44C at Albury and 42C to 44C at many other locations.
In Melbourne, the forecast is for:-
Frankston 41C, Tullamarine 44C, Yarra Glen 44C and Mount Dandenong 40, Geelong 44C, Laverton 44C, Scoresby 44C and Watsonia 44C. Forecast minimums for Melbourne vary between 18C and 24C.
The CFA for Melbourne has declared a total fire ban in addition to forecasts of raised dust and north westerly winds of 35 km to 50 km/h during the morning. However, the forecast is for the cooler change to arrive late afternoon that will end the heat.
The cool change will be spreading across Victoria and New South Wales during Sunday that will end this heat and bring relief to the affected regions.
Harley Pearman
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Harley,
Thanks for the report. It just so happened that this afternoon, about 2pm, I was checking the temperatures around the place including inland NSW and then I decided to venture into South Australia. Ceduna reached 46C at that time and many centres in South Australia well north of Adelaide were in the low to mid 40C range.
Anyway, just for completeness sake. Also, inland Western Australia also reach 44-45C over the past few days though cooling down somewhat today.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I have attempted to find some data for February 1971 but could not.
I am only aware of one substantial heatwave affecting Sydney city occurring sometime during January 1967 in which the city experienced 4 days of 37.8C or 100F or more. However, I am also aware that it did not hit 40C on all 4 days and on the last day the temperature just made it to 37.8C before a southerly change came through. I forget the actual dates but I have read about this weather event in old Bureau of Meteorology archives. I have been unable to find further reference to this of recent times.
I went to "Don the Weatherman - World Weather Trivia Page" to find out more about hot weather in Sydney. I have found these:-
Highest temperature recorded in Sydney was 14 January 1939 when it reached 45.3C. It has not been approached since. It is quoted that this is so unusual given the average maximum temperature for Sydney (Observatory Hill) is 25.8C during January and Observatory Hill averages 3 days over 30C every January and 1 x 40C day every 10 years.
I have found nothing for 1971 but 46C occurring over 3 days does not seem to be right. I will keep looking to see if I find something.
While looking, I also found other interesting maximum temperatures that will put this current 2009 heatwave into more perspective:-
a) The last 50C day recorded in Australia was at Mardie in Western Australia 1998 when it reached 50.5C (Second hottest day with the highest at Oodnadatta of 50.7C on 2 January 1960).
b) The hottest day ever recorded in Victoria was 10 January 1939 at Mildura when it reached 47.2C. (This record is also quoted in a Sydney Morning Herald Report titled "Sweating it out - With more to come dated 4 February 2009). It seems to be accurate.
c) Wilcania (NSW ) barely recorded 50C on 11 January 1939.
(These figures seem to be in line with what I have seen in textbooks and seem reasonable).
(All figures are from, Don The Weatherman - World Weather Trivia Page).
This current heatwave is certainly intense and lengthy but to date, I have not seen any of these temperatures reached or exceeded across Victoria or New South Wales.
Further on this weekend, I am aware that 70,000 volunteer fire fighters and other fire fighters are on stand by. There are 38 bushfires burning across parts of the state but not sure how many in Victoria. Authorities in Victoria are warning of a catastrophe similar to Ash Wednesday. Authorities in Victoria are even going to great lengths to tell people not to drive too far or delay travel plans. With the heat coming ahead of this cooler change, it is shaping up as a potent weekend.
Harley Pearman
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Jimmy,
Just to back up your statement re Western Sydney the following is a a graph of Penrith's temperatures since mid December. Since Jan 1 there have been 26 days over 30+ and 17 days 35+ based on the Daily Observations Data.
(http://weather.wilgatree.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/penrith_jan09.png)
Refer: http://weather.wilgatree.com/recent-weather/?filter=Penrith&id=IDCJDW2111 (http://weather.wilgatree.com/recent-weather/?filter=Penrith&id=IDCJDW2111)
Elsewhere I note Ivanhoes' impressive run of over 40 degree days which stands at 11 and I guess will continue today:
(http://weather.wilgatree.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/ivanhoe_jan09.png)
Refer http://weather.wilgatree.com/recent-weather/?filter=Ivanhoe&id=IDCJDW2065 (http://weather.wilgatree.com/recent-weather/?filter=Ivanhoe&id=IDCJDW2065)
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Melb up to 43.5 at 1pm so has broken the Feb record of 43.2. All months record is still 45.6
VIC records: Feb: 46.7C, all months: 47.2C
Bushfires are visible on the Melbourne radar
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VIC all time max temp record has been broken with 47.3 at Avalon (just NE of Geelong). EDIT: Melb is up to 45.7 so has its highest ever temp too.
Quite an extraordinary burst of extreme temps to finish this heatwave event in parts of VIC.
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Wow this is intense.
Melbourne is now 46.0. They're only .1 off Adelaide's all time record, and .2 off Perth's (and this countries record in terms of Capital Cities).
Avalon has almost reached 48 (47.9).
EDIT: Melbourne has recorded the hottest temperature ever in a Capital City in this country, beating Perth's record (46.2). The new record stands at 46.4.
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I had a call from my Nan today she lives in Parramatta – Sydney and she said that her air conditioner has failed and she said the reading on her weather station is 41.6 and she said its torture.
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Simply the most intense weather I've experienced here right now. 46C and roaring HOT wind from the W, having changed from N'lies earlier. Major fires to Melb's N and E now. The Wandong/Kilmore fire is due north of me (northern suburbs) and here is a pic from my front doorstep of the pyrocumulus which I must say is as impressive as most convection we get down here! Am taking timelapse of the boiling smoke :)
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Just thought it was interesting and maybe at this stage a rare occassion that all states in Australia exc. TAS had 40+C.
I just took 2 random examples from each state for interest sake. These are not the states hottest.
QLD Thargomindah Airport 41.1 @ 3.00pm
Ballera GAs Fields 41.5 @ 2.00pm
NSW Albury Airport 44.7 @ 4.07pm
Wilcannia Aerodrome 45.1 @ 3.18pm
VIC Hopetoun Airport 47.8 @ 4.30pm
Melbourne Regional 45.9 @ 4.30pm
WA Carnegie 40.5 @ 12.00pm
Warburton Airfield 41.4 @ 2.00pm
SA Marree 46.1 @ 3.00pm
Renmark Airport 47 @ 2.30pm
NT Curtain Springs 41.0 @ 3.00pm
Yulara Aero 41.5 @ 2.30pm
And TAS region
Flinders Island Airport 37.1 @ 4.30pm
Hogan Island 33.7 @ 4.07pm
Some of the areas all border close together but not very often you have every state with an 40+.
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Nice MODIS image this afternoon. This one at 3.50pm local time showing some bushfires and pyrocumulus.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/satpics/200902070450.jpg)
Image source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/index.php?subset=Australia6.2009038.aqua.1km
Lots of hot air on this morning's Melbourne sounding, however I would say this is before the peak in the airmass given Melbourne got to 46.4 at 3.04pm.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/thumbs/2009020700melbourne.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/soundings/2009020700melbourne.png) Melbourne 00z
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Links to pyro-cumulonimbus photos taken by "Ruckle" this afternoon (7th Feb) of fires NE of Melbourne:
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/4449/dsc0013copyxf7.jpg
http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/53/dsc0021copyqu9.jpg
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/6859/dsc0027copysm3.jpg
http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/1782/dsc0036copypl3.jpg
and this by Anthony Violi:
http://i569.photobucket.com/albums/ss134/avioli_2009/009.jpg
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Here's a short movie of a spot fire in the Yarra Valley this afternoon: Spot fire, Yarra Valley (http://www.skyrama.com/storm_photos/bushfires/07-02-2009/P1010258.MOV) These spot fires were the result of embers from a severe fire at Kinglake.
More to come...
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Please take a look at my slideshow: slideshow of pyro cb from fires near Yarra Valley (http://picasaweb.google.com.au/meteorpaul/Bushfires07022009#slideshow)
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Sounding very nasty down in Vic at the moment, listening to ABC Melbourne on the radio. 14 confirmed dead with up to 40 suspected.
Flew back from Perth today where there was a cold strong southerly last night, back to Rydalmere it was 32 degrees at 7pm but a lot hotter inside the house. Had averything open to cool the place down.
Hope everything calms down in Vic very quickly. I was there in Jan 1997 during the Snowy Mountains fires staying on Mornington Peninsula and that was nasty enough.
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I was just watching the news this morning, they say up to 25 people have been confirmed killed and possible figure of 40 have died, as of today at 9.26am QLD time.
The Brisbane Courier Mail had the figure at a possible fifty people killed plus more to come. I hope they are wrong. 1 death is bad enough, 25 is tragic, I hope there is no more.
Everyone affected by the fires, I hope you all stay alert and safe, I just wished the rain from QLD would come down and drench the situation, but that does not look likely for some days.
A tragic event.
I have posted an article from ninemsn, as history of the event, to keep a record for readers.
The death toll from the Victorian bushfires has risen to 25, police said on Sunday.
"I can confirm that we now have 25 people dead at this point in time," Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe said.
Mr Walshe told reporters late Saturday that 14 people had been confirmed dead, with fears that the toll could rise above 40.
"Our concern is still... that we believe numbers will rise as we get further into the fire zones this morning," Mr Walshe told the Nine Network on Sunday morning.
"We expect the number will climb considerably as the day passes on," Mr Walshe told ABC Radio.
"The community needs to be prepared for worse news to come at this point in time.
Most of the bodies were discovered in towns northeast of Melbourne - six at Kinglake, six at Kinglake West, four at Wandong and St Andrews, three at Humevale, and one each in Arthurs Creek and Bendigo.
At least six bodies were found in the one car at Kinglake, with reports that others may have been trying to escape the fire in cars.
Children are believed to be among the dead. But police have so far been unable to confirm the gender or ages of the victims.
Mr Walshe said he feared the death toll would be much higher.
"At this stage, to have 25 confirmed deceased, that gives me great concern that the numbers are going to get substantially higher as the day goes on, as we're able to get into the fire zones behind the fires to do those searches," he said.
He said earlier that police would undertake a more thorough search of burnt-out properties on Sunday with the fire in the area under control and cooler conditions.
Police spokesman Senior Constable Wayne Wilson said the clarification on a final death toll would take time.
"We've got to go through these places in the daylight, where we can search them properly," he told ABC Radio.
"These sort of situations it does take time for clarification to come through... particularly when you are dealing with death.
"We do it as quickly as we can but we've got to do it in a methodical and accurate way."
Meanwhile, 18 people have been admitted to Melbourne's Alfred Hospital with burns and three are in a critical condition.
Seven of the injured have burns to more than 30 per cent of their bodies.
Jim Scott, a resident of Kinglake for 22 years, said the loss of life was devastating.
"This horrific wind came through and just took the roof off our house, our shed," he told the Nine Network.
"I've never seen anything like it, it was horrific.
"This is devastating, the loss of life."
Sue Aldred, another resident of the Kinglake area, said she lost a couple of sheds on the family property, but saved their house.
"All of a sudden we were in a raging inferno, there was coloured smoke and the noise was indescribable," she told the Nine Network.
"It was terrifying.
"I did fear for my life at one point, there was a horrible moment of indecision where I just thought... I'm going to stay here and beat this flame back, and where do I hide?... which building do I hide in?
"It was horrible."
Raylene Kincaide, a resident of Narbethong, northeast of Melbourne, said her home had been destroyed and there was little left of the town.
"Everyone we know has lost everything they had - it's not nice," she told ABC Radio.
"I've been in Ash Wednesday but this is probably worse."
Meanwhile, police have reiterated their warning that the death toll from the Victorian bushfires will climb.
Victoria Police Deputy Chief Commissioner Kieran Walshe told ABC Radio it may well be discovered that many more people have died after they became trapped in their burning homes or cars.
"We are only getting into these fire zones now," Mr Walshe said.
"It has taken some time before the fire zones are safe so that we can get police and emergency services personnel into these areas now behind the fires and start to look at abandoned vehicles, look at destroyed properties, at buildings and undertake the searches to see what we can find there.
"We expect the number will climb considerably as the day passes on.
"The community needs to be prepared for worse news to come at this point in time.
"We have real concerns about some of the areas we haven't been able to get into yet. We know there are a lot of properties in those areas and we can expect that we are going to find some deceased people there."
Mr Walshe said police believed some of the fires were deliberately lit, but would not say which ones.
Quoting from Big Petes thread Away fro storms- now for fires
Big Pete in his thread in Jan 13/14 stated
{All concerned;
Fire weather warnings have been issued for SA and VIC for tomorrow and Wednesday 13 & 14th respectively.
Temps in both states are expected to reach well over 40deg C each day.
I know that where I live 40C and 41C are forecasted for the two days.
Seems as if from the cooler Dec and early Jan - we just get roasted into fire season.
Big Pete(end qoute}}
The fires delayed in coming, but he was right. They came with a vengeance.
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My goodness. A terrible situation. Some of the footage is just jaw dropping - seeing the fire behaviour of the fronts just moving with the wind.
The ABC has some very good coverage http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/bushfires/ (http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/bushfires/)
Looking at the forecasts for today, the winds don't seem to be nearly as strong from the NW - and look like they will stay NE through the eastern parts. Obviously the NE'ster will still be troublesome (Sydney AP reported 37knot seabreeze yesterday!) but preferable to the gusty dry NW'er.
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Review of exceptional hot conditions across Southern New South Wales and Victoria 7/2/2009
The death toll from the Victorian fires has risen to 26 including:-
- 100,000 hectares burnt as I write this.
- The towns of Marysville and Kinglake hit very hard (Source The Age 8/2/2009).
- The cool change has yet to penetrate far North East Victoria with Albury Wodonga hitting 39.6C at 11.30 am 8/2/2009.
Besides Melbourne breaking its maximum temperature records of 46.4C, some unique weather phenomena was experienced including:-
a) - Avalon scoring 47.9C.
b) - At Albury Airport, the temperature peaked at 44.8C but is was still 40C at 9 pm. The overnight minimum for 8/2/2009 fell to 29.2C at 6 am and as before mentioned, rose to 39.6C by 11.30 am. The cool change is still yet to arrive here.
c) - At Wangaratta, the maximum temperature peaked at 45.5C at 3 pm but it was still 40C at 9 pm.
d) - At Mildura (Mallee Region), 40C was reached by 10 am and 46.1C by 3 pm. The temperature only started dropping after 7.44 pm when the cool change arrived.
e) - Deniliquin (SW New South Wales), the maximum temperature peaked at 45.6C by 1 pm but it was still 41C at 9 pm.
f) - Wagga Wagga (South West slopes of New South Wales). The coolest part of the day was at 1.30 am at 27.3C. It had reached 30C at 8 am and the temperature peaked at 43.2C at 2.32 pm.
(Sourced from Bureau of Meteorology individual weather station sites and data bases for 7/2/2009).
It is now significantly cooler in much of Victoria behind the change except for the far North East portion although there is a bushfire crises in some areas.
Taken from the 3 pm Bureau of Meteorology Weather Bulletins, some places across Victoria suffered exceptional heat including:-
Mallee Region
Hopetoun - 48C
Mildura and Ouyen - 47C (Raised dust was observed at Mildura)
Wimmera Region
Horsham - 47C
Stawell - 45C
Western District
Ararat - 45C (Smoke was observed)
Ballarat AWS - 44C (Very unusual for Ballarat given that the city is elevated somewhat).
Mortlake AWS - 46C
Northern Country:
Bendigo - 45C
Echuca - 47C (Dust was observed)
Kerang - 47C (A dust storm was observed)
Yarrawonga - 46C
North east
Beechworth - 44C (Beechworth is also elevated and smoke was observed)
Benalla - 46C
Corryong - 43C (Dust was observed)
Mt Buller - 30C. (Consider that Mt Buller rises as high as 1,805 metres, this is exceptional)
North Central
Eildon - 41C
Mangalore AWS 46C (Dust was observed)
West Gippsland
Bairnsdale Airport AWS - 45C
Latrobe Valley AWS - 46C (Haze was observed)
East Sale - 44C
East Gippsland
Lakes Entrance - 45C
Orbost - 46C
Point Hicks - 39C
All areas of the state were hot. I have focused on regions outside Melbourne in this post to provide a comparison on what happened across the state of Victoria in general.
A full list of the 3 pm Bulletin for Saturday 7 February is found at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60028.html
Harley Pearman
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It's distressing to read about those poor people who have perished, some it is reported were believed to be trying to escape in their vehicles. It's sad to hear about the devastation, particularly in Marysville as I've been there many times. It's hard to imagine that most of the town has been destroyed. It was such a tranquil village nestled in Yarra Ranges beneath the cross country ski area of Lake Mountain. I hope very much that whatever remains can be salvaged and the town will be rebuilt.
In regards to the nature of the fires, it seemed to me that the pyro-cb from the Kinglake fire was stationary for a long time. I think this is also evident from the radar loops. It was as though this pyro thunderstorm had become anchored in the flow and was sustaining itself.
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This is the latest at 1.56 pm from an article on bigpond news,
I thought I would post it direct just to keep a record for people who may read the devastating the fires in Vic and now NSW. So for historical record this is the horrifying story.
Quote
The death toll from the Victorian bushfires has risen to 35, and eight people are in a critical condition in hospital with burns injuries.
The eight, who have burns to at least 30 per cent of their body, are in Melbourne's The Alfred hospital.
Another 10 people are in a 'very stable' condition at the hospital, the spokesman said.
He said the hospital was expecting more patients would be brought in.
At least 100 homes were destroyed as nine major blazes burnt out of control across the state.
More than 3,000 firefighters and many more residents worked to contain fires in all corners of the state, including major fronts at Horsham, Coleraine, Weerite, Kilmore East, Bunyip, Churchill, Dargo, Murrindindi and Redesdale.
Most of the bodies were discovered in towns northeast of Melbourne - six at Kinglake, six at Kinglake West, four at Wandong and St Andrews, three at Humevale, and one each in Arthurs Creek and Bendigo.
At least six bodies were found in the one car at Kinglake, with reports that others may have been trying to escape the fire in cars.
Children are believed to be among the dead. But police have so far been unable to confirm the gender or ages of the victims.
Police spokesman Senior Constable Wayne Wilson said the clarification on a final death toll would take time.
Across Australia emergency services workers were out in full force as fires on Saturday also threatened homes in NSW and South Australia, while flash floods wreaked havoc in north Queensland.
In NSW a 31-year-old man was being questioned over a fire police believe was deliberately lit near Peats Ridge, on the Central Coast, which burnt through 120 hectares of land through the Brisbane Water National Park.
About 250 firefighters battled the blaze with five aircraft and more than 20 fire tankers.
At 9pm (AEDT) on Saturday, a Rural Fire Service spokesman told AAP the threat to nearby properties had eased.
'Fire fighters will remain on the ground all night to try to establish some containment lines that will hold in anticipation of (Sunday's) weather,' he said.
Fire fighters would remain in the area until cooler weather came through, which was expected on Monday.
South of Sydney, several fires burning in the Bega Valley on Saturday night threatened people in the villages of Towamba, Burragate and Wyndham, and villagers were warned by the RFS to prepare for severe fire weather on Sunday.
At Wollemi National Park, in the Singleton area, north of Sydney, the RFS anticipated fires would burn through 2,000 hectares of countryside by Sunday morning.
In South Australia a fire that burnt through 108 hectares at Gawler River, north of Adelaide, was a major concern throughout Saturday.
A spokeswoman from South Australia's Country Fire Service said about 155 fire fighters, assisted by four fixed-wing waterbombing aircraft and helicopters, helped contain the fire.
She said crews would keep mopping up the fire overnight.
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Review of New South Wales Weather conditions for 7/2/2009
The cool change has now reached Albury / Wodonga but the maximum temperature did reach 40C at 12 noon and the cool change is now starting to take effect here. This results in the area experiencing 14 days in a row with temperatures at or over 37C and this should be the highest maximum temperature for Victoria for 8/2/2009.
Currently as I write this, it is 35C at Blacktown and 36.3C at Penrith. Over the past 3 days, maximum temperatures have reached 38.6C on 5/2/09, 39.2C on 6/2/09 and 41.9C on 7/2/09 where I live.
At Richmond, the maximum temperature has reached 40C on all 3 days stated.
The cooler SE change is now making its way north along the New South Wales South Coast and is currently north of Bega and will shortly arrive at Merimbula.
On 7/2/2009, some exceptionally high temperatures were recorded across large swathes of New South especially across the Upper and Lower Western, Riverina, South West Slopes and to a lesser extent, Central West Slopes. North West Slopes and western Sydney particularly around Richmond, Penrith, Campbelltown, Blacktown and Parramatta.
All temperatures quoted are taken from Bureau of Meteorology Daily Weather Bulletin - New South Wales for 7/2/2009 and the hottest locations include:-
Upper and Lower Western:
Balranald - 45C (Dust was observed)
Broken Hill - 44C
Ivanhoe - 46C
Pooncarie - 47C
Wilcannia - 44C
Tibooburra - 42C
North West Slopes
Barraba, Tamworth and Walgett were the hottest localities on 39C.
Central West Slopes
Condobolin and West Wyalong - 42C
Cowra and Forbes - 41C
Riverina
Deniliquin - 47C (Dust was observed)
Tocumwal - 46C
Corowa, Griffith, Hay and Narrandera all on 45C (A dust storm was observed at Hay and dust was observed at Narrandera)
Maximum 3 pm temperatures of 44C were common across the Riverina.
The Riverina and far South West New South Wales suffered the most from the exceptional conditions of 7/2/2009.
South West Slopes
Gundagai - 44C
Temora - 43C
Quandialla 42C
There were some reasonable highs on the South Coast in areas away from the sea breezes such as Bega - 41C but places right on the coast were allot cooler ie Ulladulla - 27C.
Temperatures in the Hunter Valley varied from 29C at Nelson Bay to 41C Jerrys Plains and Cessnock.
Generally, areas outside the Riverina, South West Slopes and South West New South were less affected by the exceptional conditions.
Other note worthy facts are the minimums at some locations in affected areas including:-
Broken Hill - Minimum of 30C and a maximum of 44C.
Fowlers Gap AWS - Minimum of 32C and a maximum of 43C.
Ivanhoe - Minimum of 30C and a maximum of 46C.
Tibooburra - Minimum of 31C and a maximum of 42C.
White Cliffs - Minimum of 32C and a maximum of 44C.
Condobolin - Minimum 31C and a maximum of 42C.
Hay - Minimum of 29C and a maximum of 45C.
Are other standout features for this day.
Capital Cities
The hottest capital cities for 7/2/2009 were Melbourne on 46C (Minimum 19C), Adelaide 41C (Minimum 26C) (Before the cooler change) and Canberra 40C (Minimum 20C). The maximum temperature for Melbourne broke the record that was set here on 13/1/1939 when it reached 45.6C on that day.
Sydney:
Much of the western areas scored over 40C such as Bankstown (40C), Badgerys Creek (41C), Horsley Park (41C), Parramatta (41C), Penrith (42C) and Richmond (41C). Observatory Hill was the coolest on 32C.
A full list can be found at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN60028.html
Finally, with the cool change moving north along the coast and across the inland, the end of the heatwave is near.
Harley Pearman
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Downloaded the SAT synoptic showing the severe weather pattern causing the treacherous conditions down south and heavy flooding up north.
The synop shows that a trough over central Australia is pushing hot, dry air into the southeast leading to severe fire danger and record braking temperatures.
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Here is a pic taken approx at the unfortunate time when Kinglake and surrounds were being hit by the horrendous blaze and one before midnight. I chased a storm through the area a month ago and it was heavily forested with windy roads and rolling hills. 500 houses gone from the town. The state death toll is rising, 49 confirmed now and many missing and so many reports of burnt out cars being found in the middle of roads where they were abandoned. It was a very eerie night here, no smoke because of the SW pushing it away but I could see a feint orange glow under the PCu.
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This map shows the 850hPa temperature analysis for Saturday 7th February 2009 at 06z. Pretty much matches the GFS forecast posted a few days earlier.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/maps/2009020706temp0850.png)
To see 850 temps around 30 C this far south is unusual.
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(Modified at 10:15pm.. Just letting of steam and sorrow, )
something that really is bugging me terribly and leaves me confused and feeling ill, is if you go back and read through this thread, members have posted charts, observations of the heat wave and dangerous conditions, and even the comparisons to that of Ash Wednesday. Now as a forum of members, with somewhat limited access to the full technology as the authorities have, were able to see the dangers involved. I wonder why no preventive action or compulsory evacuation was taken by govt and weather authorities. (I say this because all reports at this stage does not mention any such attempts.).
Kevin Rudd promised full access to army equipment, but a liitle to late for those who perished.
It does not seem enough warning or emergency procedure were in place, as a result, it is now estimated that over 66 people have perished in these horrendous fires. Could there have been more survivors if a better emergency plan was in place or more notice from Authorities. I know that the full story has not emerged, but it just leaves you distraught and upset. You feel for the people who losts love ones, or thoughts of those just before they were burnt to death. It really is a sad day. Our whole world weather system is becoming more severe as the climate shifts, we need better advance warnings and education for human society.
The death toll from Victoria's bushfires has risen to 66 and police have confirmed 640 homes have been lost. ( from ninemsn)
The number of fatalities climbed throughout the day from this morning’s total of 14 as police moved through the burnt-out fire zones and inspected the remains of smouldering properties and the blackened shells of cars.
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something that really is bugging me terribly and leaves me confused and feeling ill, is if you go back and read through this thread, members have posted charts, observations of the heat wave and dangerous conditions, and even the comparisons to that of Ash Wednesday. Now as a forum of members, with somewhat limited access to the full technology as the authorities have, were able to see the dangers involved. I wonder why no preventive action or compulsory evacuation was taken by govt and weather authorities.
Yes we have the comparisons with the Ash Wednesday conditions and the fire danger. But the problem is that despite being able to predict that fire danger was so much more than extreme, it still doesn't tell us where the fires will start - whether by lightning strikes, idiots throwing cigarette butts out the window, or worse still deliberately lighting them.
Do you evacuate all of country Victoria, including the edges of major cities or towns like Bendigo and Narre Warren?
Not living there I can't really comment on what warnings were issued, but the news stories I saw on various websites before the fires were certainly warning of the risk of fires.
76 dead last time I checked. Not prepared to check it again, every time I do the total goes up. On the positive side South Australia has been amazingly lucky (and well prepared) to avoid any major fires with the conditions they have been experiencing recently.
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I agree with you, I am just blowing off some steam and just feel so sorry for those affected and those who perished. The special 1 hour news that we watched had many saying that they had little warning to evacuate and some of those who tried to leave were incinerated in their cars.
As you read of the unfolding news, the magnitude of the event is apocalyptic proportions. The toll already surpasses the 47 deaths in Victoria and 28 in South Australia in the 1983 Ash Wednesday fires, while the Black Friday blaze in 1939 claimed 71 lives. It is now Australia's worst bushfire disaster
The death toll from horrific bushfires across Victoria this weekend has reached 84, surpassing the number of people who perished in the 1983 Ash Wednesday blazes.
More than 700 homes have been lost in what is being described as 'Hell on Earth', and it is feared the death toll will pass 100.
Former Channel Nine newsreader Brian Naylor and his wife are among the victims of the Victorian bushfires.
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i feel so so Sorry for those people down in Victoria they have gone through drought and now this the latest on channel 10 indicates 88 lives claimed and 735 homes demolished 365,000 hectares of land burnt and fears of lightning strikes causing more fires as storms are ripping through now also 26 fires around Victoria. Who said global warming is here I believe it
stormboy
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Without going too off topic, and I am certainly stunned by this event, but a disaster is just that - a disaster. Circumstances come together that were not anticipated in a specific place at a specific time and the result if there is a population is a catastrophe.
As Nick Moir suggested to me, most of the casualties occur when the wind changes. I am not sure if this was the case here but it seemed to be the case in one of the townships. I will take this discussion on a separate thread. Please discuss these issues in the Natural disasters and Preventative measures thread (http://www.australiasevereweather.com/forum/general-weather-all-topics-that-are-not-current-severe-weather-should-be-posted-here/natural-disasters-and-preventative-measures/msg11287/#new)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Briefly the Victorian bushfires have so far claimed 108 lives, burnt out 330,000 hectares and destroyed some 750 homes which is the latest as I write this.
However to keep to the main topic I have looked at some further data from various weather station sites on this heatwave just ended and find the following:-
a) - Poonacrie in South West New South Wales just had 14 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached and or exceeded 40C.
b) - Hay also in South West New South Wales had 13 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached or exceeded 40 degrees.
c) - Ivanhoe also in South West New South Wales had 14 days in a row from 26/1/2009 to 8/2/2009 where the maximum temperature exceeded 40 degrees.
This is relatively common across South West New South Wales.
Wagga Wagga had 13 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached or exceeded 37.8C.
Even Western Sydney had a fair run too being:-
a) Richmond had 4 days in a row where the maximum temperature topped 40C from 5/2/09 to 8/2/09. That is not common.
b) Penrith had 3 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached 40C but 4 days in a row where the maximum temperature exceeded 39C from 5/2/09 to 8/2/09.
c) As it reached 38.4C where I live 8/2/09, the maximum temperature reached 38C on 4 days in row from 5/2/09 to 8/2/09. That too is rare.
This is limited to Richmond, Penrith and Blacktown etc and the sea breeze influenced temperatures across much of Sydney throughout this event.
The cool change arrived at 8.40 pm Sunday night where I live that brought refreshing cool winds. Across Southern New South Wales, a narrow band of showers with some brief thunderstorms moved through the region dropping very light rainfalls ie 0.4 mm at Albury Airport (BOM Albury Airport Weather Station Site - Borella Road Albury) at around 8.30 am (9/2/09). It is allot cooler there now which will help the fire situation at nearby Beechworth and Yackandandah.
On 8/2/09, some very high maximum temperatures occurred again mainly in New South Wales including:-
Cobar - 42C, Fowlers Gap - 43C, Ivanhoe - 46C, Tibooburra - 42C, Wilcania - 44C, Condobolin - 43C, Dubbo - 40C, Griffith - 43C, Gundagai - 43C and Wyalong - 43C. This occurred in the areas where the cool change had not penetrated.
Maximum temperatures of 40C or over were also recorded in parts of the Hunter Valley eg Scone and Singleton and parts of Western Sydney eg Penrith and Richmond.
(All sourced from the Daily Weather Bulletins 3PM, Bureau of Meteorology 8/2/2009).
Even today 9/2/09, Tamworth on the North West Slopes of New South Wales is forecast to reach 40C which indicates that the cooler change is still to make its way into Northern New South Wales.
Harley Pearman
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I don't have much to add to the disbelief that's been experienced as a resulty of this tragedy. I grew up with Ash Wednesday occuring when i was ten and I thought it would always be the worst case scenario but I was obviously wrong. I believe that in the future, unless people build better and take more measures to ensure safety during extreme fire events we'll see the same happen again, especially as population density and development in fire prone areas increases. It's becoming obvious though that the area affected is particulary prone to powerful fires every 20 to 30 years.
One thing that I noted early on in the disaster was an angry warning by the CFA for "fire tourists" to stay away from the fires. Aparantly people were "fire chasing" into the danger areas and getting in the way. I wonder if some were people from the weather community or if they were other people.
Regards Jeff.
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I think most people in this country are deeply saddened by what has happened in Victoria in the last 48 hours and most Melbournians, in some way or another, know someone who knows someone who lost something, whether it was property, pets or, tragically, life. This will be a day which will go down in history and I hope it is a record we never see surpassed. Being here in QLD has been very difficult for me in the last few days knowing the areas which are burning so well and knowing that friends and friends of friends are in the affected areas and not knowing their fate has been very difficult. I've shed some tears and still feel sad. These were my old stomping grounds where I started my storm chasing back in the late 1990's and knowing the affected areas so well just makes it that much harder.
Once the malestrom settles down, whenever that may be, I would like to explore some of the meteorological conditions from Saturday - not just the extreme temperature and wind conditions, but the conditions "within" the fire zones. Experts have stated that the fire danger indicies were (literally) off the scale with numbers as high as 400 coming in during Saturday afternoon. Combine the conditions from Saturday with precipitating pyrocumulonimbus and there are some very interesting weather phenomenon occuring. Hopefully things can be learned from today (meteorologically) which may help limit the impact of another such event. More on this another day...maybe another week....maybe another month.
For now, I'm going to concentrate my thoughts on my friends who have lost everything - not just houses, cars and posessions but also loved ones.
Macca
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Perhaps a little late but better late than never. Nick has asked me to post videos he toook of his recent trips down to SW Slopes and then near Lithgow, Central Coast and near Warragamba Dam:
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=45928
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=45912
Jimmy Deguara
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I have one issue with the media reports. Firstly they are reporting it as a natural disaster. Then they are reporting that it appears the fires that killed the most people were the result of arson.
The two would seem to be mutually exclusive.
Either way it is a tragedy. I'm currently in Brisbane and one of the people we are working with has lost 2 friends in the Victorian fires, she grew up in the area.
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As with everyone else I am saddened by the events on Saturday. To see so many people effected by these fires is terrible. I knew the conditions on Saturday were extreme but still I am shocked by just how badly things turned out. Do not think of it as cold but am also interested in the meteorological conditions on the day. I certainly agree with you Macca that there was quite possibly some very interesting weather phenomenon since tornadoes and even hail can be associated with pyrocumulonimbus storms. I have saved radar images of these fires but it would also be interesting to see vertical scans of these pyrocumulonimbus storms if they can be found.
Hopefully something can be learned from this tragedy so that it will never be repeated.
Michael
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John,
It must of been an interesting conference and it would have been good to see some of those presentations. You mention that the Forest Fire Danger Index is based an exponential relationship between humidity, wind speed, temperature, fuel loading etc. All of these factors are obviously extremely important but I was wondering do mid/upper level temperatures matter? I say this as cold mid-tropospheric temps (steep lapse rates) would be needed to form pyrocumulonimbus storms. Does the formation of a pyrocumulonimbus over a fire enhance the local environment by increasing wind speeds and/or supplying more oxygen to the fire? If so, should some kind of instability index be included in determining fire danger? I believe the lapse rate was dry adiabatic till 4-5 km AGL during the afternoon period on Saturday which is reasonably impressive.
Michael
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John,
I think the indices are very meaningful as it does provide an opportunity for comparisons. Interestingly, and I suspect the temperatures are significant in such cases, the Black Friday fires of 1939 rank higher than the Ash Wednesday fires. Canberra interestingly also ranks higher than both of those.
John, can you go into some more comparisons as to how these indices are calculated an perhaps comparisons of mean wind perhaps, temperatures at sea level (Canberra is about 400 metres in altitude?), and an indices referring to the dryness - perhaps of the air and also some measure of dryness of the fuel and amounst of fuel.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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John,
You seemed to indicate with your final paragraph that the 'risk' with the wind change and stronger winds were higher. The death toll just simply does not match up. Were the wind changes also a factor in Ash Wednesday?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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John,
Thanks for the clarification. However, I was of the opinion that various sources at the time suggested the winds in Ash Wednesday approached 150km/h. This is the reason I wish if it were possible and you had the time was to prepare a table with mean approximate wind speeds as well as maximum windspeeds from the various events as suggested earlier. It would be much less confusing and perhaps and more standardised method of comparison.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi John,
Thanks for your discussion, it is very informative. Just a few questions, you say that temperature is about 4th in order of importance but that temperature did play a role in that this resulted the mixed boundary layer being 5km in depth. I have had a suspicion that the temperature its self is not so important as I have a hard time imagining 10C (as in 35C or 45C) would make much difference when the fire is burning at over 1000C. You mention however that deep mixing over the lowest 5km is important in drying the air a ground level which I can understand is important. I guess this brings me back to my previous question, do dry adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 4-5km help 'vent' the smoke form the fire? Do pyrocumulonimbus enhance their parent fire?
Michael
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hi guys , sorry this has taken a while and i will put up some pix at some point but i doubt they will add much as you would have all seen enough. i have just returned from covering the aftermath and having also been in canberra for those fires something i would like to throw up is the contribution of the pine plantations which are throughout the bushfire damaged areas and also played a major role in canberra. The pines though dont spot as far as eucalyptus do have far more intense embers and seem to explode into flame even quicker than the oil filled gum trees. i think at the end of this apart from the extreme temps , topography , winds and arson that town planning will need to be better looked at as once again these plantations in many cases came very close to properties and towns , it makes me wonder about other locations where they are such as in the central tablelands of NSW
i have covered bushfires for well over a decade including all the major sydney fires and canberra and experienced the 94 fires in the blue mts and i am a big believer in the leave early or defend routine but this was of a magnitude too strong. john allen has said that many died in there homes and this is very true and if i had not seen the damage myself i would not have believed it but many places were not destroyed by embers (canberra) but incredible direct flame , if you were not listening to a CFA scanner or paying extreme attention on that day and you were in the wrong place then it appears your fate was sealed , home prepared or not.
serious disaster planning like the automated tornado warning systems and shelters in the USA will probably be a good way to go i would think but that debate will come soon once the initial shock of this unbelievable event has passed.
on the wind speeds , i did not see the pyro tornado damage that i saw in canberra but i was not able to see much of the area as they were large fires in size. i would think though the massive inflow that a fire of this size would require at the front of the fire would create extreme winds , any thoughts on these very localised winds ? (perhaps that is where the 150kph from ash wednesday JD heard about came from.
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Whilst I can't comment on the actual wind speeds there, one report (from a CFA member I saw being interviewed) stated the fire travelled 25km up a hill in 7 minutes. That gives an approximate speed to 200kph which seems extreme but could well be possible.
As for the pine plantations, I remember seeing them burn quite well when I lived in Canberra many years ago when the hills to the east of Farrer weren't covered in houses. A similar situation of pine plantations near houses/towns is also common in the Adelaide Hills as well as the South East of South Australia. In fact the Adelaide Hills is a nasty area because of the mix of gums and pines, so if a fire gets going the pines can give it the really intense heat while the gums can contribute to the spotting.
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Permanent links to the Melbourne radar on the 7th February 2009. It's a pity the main radar was offline for three and a half hours during the afternoon. The airport radar was not available for 90 minutes too.
---> Melbourne Airport 128km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/radar/20090207/melbourne_airport128.htm)
0100 to 1040 UTC (0510 to 0640 missing)
---> Melbourne 128km scale radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/radar/20090207/melbourne128.htm)
0100 to 1900 UTC (0342 to 0700 missing)
---> Melbourne Doppler radar loop (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/radar/20090207/melbourne_doppler128.htm)
0100 to 1900 UTC (0342 to 0700 missing)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/thumbs/2009020700melbourne.png) (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/soundings/2009020700melbourne.png) Melbourne 00z
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I've just returned from a holiday in the Mansfield / Alexandra area and was one of those caught (although not badly caught) in the fires, and I'd just like to post some personal observations on what it was like there.
We were away on holiday in Alexandra (3rd Feb) and just outside Mansfield (4/5/6/7 Feb) and conditions were pretty extreme. I'm sure you guys don't want to know about the holiday, so I'll cut to the chase.
Friday - we went on a trip up to Woods Point - a very steep climb up a gravel road and the car (land rover freelander) decided that it was a bit too hot, so the fuel decided to evaporate neccesitating stopping every 10 mins or so to let the engine cool down enough to actually go. When we were almost at Woods point, the car conked out (again) and I decided that it was really too dangerous to continue, so turned back. Had to stop quite a few times on the way back to let the engine cool enough to continue. Finally, after a couple of hours, we got back to where we were staying.
Sat - went into Mansfield for supplies, then back to the farm. We went to sit in the Delatite River for a while, but it was so hot it felt like someone had hairdryers on full blast streaming directly into your face. Dunking my face into the river, it took only about 15 seconds to heat it back up again - it was absolutely unbearable and seemed to be getting hotter. About 3pm we went back up to the homestead and tried to keep cool in the house. I looked up at the sky and saw smoke, but when I remarked on it to the owners, they said it was only dust. To me, it seemed to be the wrong colour and was moving "wrong" to be dust, but it was fairly high, so I didn't worry too much about it. About 8-ish (pm) after we'd seen the news and knew that there were a few bushfires (but at that time, didn't know how serious they were) the smoke came down to ground level. Vis at that time was around 2-300 metres and a very strong smell of smoke. About 10-ish, the owners came in and told us that all of the roads out of the area were cut, but that we weren't currently 'under threat', however due to the spotting & supposed wind change, they'd be on Fire Watch all night. There was also a fire at Mt Buller (which was about 10km away in a direct line-of-sight to us). The only way out was via Benella, which was about a 2 hr detour. Due to the heat (it was still above 40 degrees at 8pm), we thought it would be safer to stay (mind you, nobody had contacted either us, or the owners of the property to let us know what was going on - the only info was coming from the CFA and DSE websites).
We woke up pretty early on Sun morning, and the vis was down to around 50 metres - smoke was very thick and it was still over 32 degrees (please note, no monitoring equip other than the thermometer in the house - which was showing 32, but it felt hotter outside). Decided that it would be better going in the relative cool and stillness of the morning, than waiting until mid-morning, so we headed off on the detour. The smoke stayed thick and low all the way to Benella, then down the Hume almost to Sunday Creek (just north of Wandong / Kilmore) when it started to lift and the temp felt a lot cooler. The police had just opened the Hume again and we were one of the first through - fires were still burning on either side of the freeway (on the median strip) but with the wind dropped to almost nothing, it was reasonably safe.
Looking at the burnt (and burning) areas, there were a lot of shrubs/bushes/trees that were only burnt up to about 30cm from the ground, but the leaves were untouched, so the windspeed must have been incredible at those points. CFA and DSE tankers were still running around blacking out the area - with my extemely limited knowledge of both weather and fire, it looked like there were a lot of micro-climates - some areas were completely devastated, but others very close by had only burnt to between 30cm and a metre from the ground, and some were still burning.
Sorry there's no definative data from the area, but it was the last thing on my mind at that time!
Niall
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Hi Twodogs (sorry for the name reference),
That is a scary situation - your can count yourselves very lucky!
On a similar note, several nights ago, I was invited to part-take in a
pre-recorded radio interview (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2009/media/dublin_radio_interview_20090213.mp3) on a radio show in Dublin, Ireland. Promise you won't laugh at me:) I tried my best.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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if you guys want to see incredible fire footage , this is it. this fire front appears to be rotating hard and gives the impression of being close to a strong tornado , around 2 min mark watch the smoke rapidly rotate. taken from St Andrews.
Terrifying sound of bushfire (http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=46144)
Nick
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Nick,
Absolutely insane! The sound of that roar is similar to a tornado! Winds simultaneously picks up as the 'firestorm' approaches! Now those observations and video teamed with the pictures from Paul Graham and others of the fire's pyrocumulonimbus make this quite interesting. Many on this forum have commented about wanting to see what conditions were like inside to learn more about the dynamics that were associated with this event and I uess similar events in the past.
I would be interested in thoughts from others.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I was in VIC for EWN work meetings with the Country Fire Authority and community Tues/Wed this week. We've got some new technology that will allow the CFA to locate their trucks or people via their mobile phone position, and display that on maps and send messages if necessary. The meeting was held at Arthurs Creek fire station and well received by those in attendance.
Arthurs Creek was just saved from being burnt by the Black Saturday fires when the wind changed. Their local community of Strathewen was not so fortunate with 27 people dying there.
On Wednesday morning a couple of the volunteers drove us around the Strathewen area (http://maps.google.com.au/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=strathewen+Victoria&sll=-37.536785,145.301185&sspn=0.098416,0.135441&ie=UTF8&ll=-37.561044,145.275993&spn=0.098384,0.135441&z=13), pointing out the devastation, people who had died or escaped, houses saved or not. It was very sad. The area has been very much changed in that there are now expansive views of the countryside from the roads where once it was just forest and hidden homes.
A couple of pics - not much has grown back in 6 months. The green on the ground was mainly moss.
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/thumbs/2009080502.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/thumbs/2009080504.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/thumbs/2009080506.jpg)
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/thumbs/2009080514.jpg)
Australian{Bushfire 7th feb 2009 St Andrews Vic} (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3dPlVvkIZ8#lq-lq2-hq)
This is the house where that incredible footage was taken. The home is just a couple of ks west of Kinglake
(http://australiasevereweather.com/forum_images/thumbs/2009080515.jpg)
All photos for 5 August 2009 (http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2009/mb20090805.html)
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Michael,
Incredible images of the aftermath almost 6 months on after the Victorian Bush Fires disaster. Of course we may find vegetation wise that some parts of the forest may never recover - certainly not to the extent you describe! Extreme heat in the Tasmanian fires I think in the 1960's totally destroyed forests beyond the point they could recover due to the intense heat of the fires.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I remember the same in the big Sydney fires of 1996(?). While many Australian plants require a bushfire to trigger them to drop seeds, the problem is that naturally occurring fires keep getting put out by humans.
So when the fire does finally come through, the fuel load is such that it burns much hotter than it would if there were regular fires, so hot that it in fact kills the seeds.
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I remember the same in the big Sydney fires of 1996(?)....
Rich, I think you'll find it was 1995....
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Even though I have not commented much on this fire, I think it would be interesting to note that as one who does not live too far from the worst affected areas, it was strange to see the hot duststorm like cloud to the north just racing across the sky NE wards and an amazing speed from my vantage point between Camberwell and Alamein (where I was covering charter work for Connex who has lost power on the Alamein line just 1hr before the wind-change and firestorm began.
Also, a few days later I was on a school bus run in the northern areas of Lilydale (near Coldstream) sighting flames to my north less than 5kms away!
I lost 3 friends in the fires, 2 were teenagers trying to shelter in Kinglake West, the other in Marysville.
People in these locations were given the stay/go policy, but by the time they made up their mind to go (which from previous VIC fires would have been plenty of time) - they were quickly overtaken in the firestorm inferno and had no chance to escape!
A terrible event - and recently on the news, Sam the Koala, who was saved by firefighter, has also died - the latest victim some six months later!
Big Pete
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Sorry to hear the loss of your three friends Big Pete. It was sad to see the face of the fires, "Sam the Koala", die during surgery on Thursday. I was reading this morning in the paper that she is going to be displayed in the Melbourne Museum as a symbol of the devastating fire.
Another point I was pondering over, and I don't know if it is a knee jerk reaction or based on pure evidence, either way it is important and serious, Victorian authorities have stated that they are expecting "a worse than Black Saturday" fire this season, (which starts very shortly) due the lack of rain and drought conditions, and the abundance of fuel for the fires from dry vegetation.
ABC News article Wed Jul 29, 2009
Victorians have been warned that this summer's bushfire conditions are expected to be even worse than those which sparked the killer Black Saturday bushfires.
A leaked report from the state's Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) says a season with the "greatest potential loss to life and property is now in sight".
The report says the ominous forecast is due to Victoria's continuing drought and a forecast of El Nino weather pattern.
DSE's chief fire officer Ewan Waller says Victoria has been vulnerable to these type of seasons for a number of years.
"That is entirely due to below-average rainfall which will come into the 13th year and if we have that, if you get bad fire weather and ignition sources, then you will have disastrous fires," he said.
We all hope that this is not the case, but if it is, I hope the serious and valuable lessons taught along with the tragic loss of life will be not be forgotten.
On another note, it was good to hear that Michael Bath with EWN have had meetings with with the Victorian CFA, and hopefully a good warning system can be implemented to help to save lives.
Col
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Rich, I think you'll find it was 1995....
Could well have been, too lazy too google it :-) I remember the timing because I went away for 9 months in 1997, back early 1998 to find the trees starting to sprout gum leaves from the trunks and so looked all furry.
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Another point I was pondering over, and I don't know if it is a knee jerk reaction or based on pure evidence, either way it is important and serious, Victorian authorities have stated that they are expecting "a worse than Black Saturday" fire this season, (which starts very shortly) due the lack of rain and drought conditions, and the abundance of fuel for the fires from dry vegetation...
Col
I think you are quite right about the conditions down here. According to The Weather Channel (Australia), they are continuing to declare the agricultural areas as 100% drought declared. I think from a personal level, the fuel reduction burns and the clearings have not taken place at a time when it was best to do so - ie during winter. This places areas close to home for me (the Dandenongs) at probably the greatest risk since 1939. People here are expecting the worst, and were surprised it didn't happen this year (2009). Only time will tell.
Big Pete
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Hi all, I have visited all the major fire effected areas and have photos that I will eventually share on here - I just havent had time to scratch myself lately.
Michael, my thoughts are that Strathewan was the worst example of the ferocity and the hopelessness that the fires produced on that day. So many places were devastated and are eery places to visit but I found Strath be the worst and the fatalities support that I guess. Nestled in a valley surrounded by towering forests with creeks and only one proper road in and out and the bridge burning - they stood no chance unless shear luck stepped in and reading a book about it, there was some shear luck.
The fire in the video taken from St Andrews is astonishing and I believe it has a direct link with the devastation of Strathewan. Ever since Nick Moir posted the video, it haunted me. I wanted to know where it was filmed from and what direction he was facing when the firestorm approached. I knew the fires were travelling violently SE before the change and then even more violently NE after it but it didnt make sense to me that the fire could be travelling right to left from his vantage in St Andrews which effectly became the southern edge of the fire effected area in that region. It made sense to me that St Andrews should be south of this firestorm, hence it would be moving left to right if his vantage. To find the answer I used the white pages to find his address using his name from the video, then I used google earth to find the address and based on the geography in his video I discovered that the location of the video, although classed as St Andrews is much closer to Strathewan township than St Andrews township. His video is pointing generally SW - Strathewan is SW-W of his location. After watching the video many times, using the features of google earth, visiting the area and reading many accounts from Strathewan locals, I am absolutely certain that the footage of the firestorm is taken in the moments during and after it has ravaged Strathewan at the bottom of the valley, growing in intensity as it climbs the ridge and continuing SE towards St Andrews as the wind violently changes NE toward the end of the video and comes back towards the guy with the video from his left (south) on its way towards Kinglake. I have no doubt having read survivor accounts from Kinglake, that the extreme behaviour in the video such as rapid increase in fire speed, height of flames and possibly rotating firestorm was replicated as the fire roared up the steep ridges to Kinglake in the minutes after the video.
Scary stuff.
Brad.
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Hi Brad - yeah the video is not from St Andrews - the address is 105 rankines road, strathewen. Look 500 metres east of the Google Maps marker and you can see the house.
Your analysis of the wind change is pretty much how I worked it out too.
MB
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Hi, as promised here are some HDR pics I shot from various bushfire areas in the months after the disaster. Brad.
These first 3 shots are from the Heidelberg-Kinglake Road as I made my way to Kinglake township.
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Brad,
Your images and those of others in this thread illustrate the tragic loss of a beutiful part of the world! The shoots represent life but it would take an extremely long period of time to get this region back even close to its original ecosystem.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Here are three more pics taken from the Heidelberg-Kinglake Rd which used to be shrouded by the thick bushland growth right up to and above the roadside - I tried chasing a storm there once and it was useless because I couldnt see - things have changed now.
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The first 2 shots were taken along the Whittlesea-Yea Rd near Kinglake Westand the 3rd is the general store at Kinglake Central. Some of the gestures such as flags, stuffed toys and messages placed by locals, rescuers or others were reminiscent of what I witnessed in Greensburg after their tornado disaster.
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This property near where Brian Naylor lived has been cleared. While the view east to the Yarra Ranges is breathtaking, look closely and you'll see most of the distant terrain is burnt. The road winding in the centre of the shot is Heidelberg-Kinglake Rd and the town of Strathewan is below this vantage. My second shot was taken in the steep hills above Strathewan and the third displays the near complete destruction of Flowerdale.
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These two shots were taken on the western side of a mountain as I approached the Gippsland town of Calignee after emerging from a dense rainforest on the eastern side. We went from dense wet greenery to a black wasteland and the sound of the wind, and nothing else was eerie to say the least. I will post shots of Marysville at a later time.
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Thanks for posting those Brad.
Really paints a picture of devastation on a large scale! On the bright side it's great to see the new shoots coming back to the trees.
Let's hope we don't get to see anything on this scale ever again.
Cheers,
Shauno
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I had the opportunity to travel to the fire devastated areas in Victoria last week whilst in Melbourne for the ASWA AGM. Myself, Rod Wallbridge and Michael Bath and our respective partners travelled to the areas of Kinglake and Marysville. To be completely honest with you I didn't expect to be absolutely gobsmacked at the sheer scale and enormity of what happened on that fateful day in February. Travelling to the "firezone" it was incredible to witness the sheer destruction of the countryside, whilst there was some growth starting to emerge on some of the trees the lack of ground vegetation was what amazed me the most. We stopped at the exactly same place as Brad did in his photos on the Kinglake rd and took some photos....so I won't post mine as they are exactly the same as his. Something we take for granted in our everyday lives is the sounds of nature, you don't really miss it till you don't hear it. This area was completely devoid of any natural sounds except for the hiss of the wind through the fire scarred landscape. I think that unless you have been up to the area, you can't really appreciate what those poor people in those communities went through. The cement slabs and lonely hills hoists paint a sad reflection of what once was. In fact when we drove into Marysville I didn't even know that we were in the town until MB pointed out features amongst the devastation that reminded us that structures once stood where only a bare patch of earth or cement slab now remain. In all it was a fascinating but a rather humbling and sobering experience. Its not something that I'll ever forget and I hope that this summer doesn't have a repeat of that awful day.
Cheers
Jason
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For those who may be reading, researching or who followed the events of is catastrophic fire, it may be of interest to read some of the concluding findings that contributed to Black Saturday. I have posted only one of the outcomes today. ( There have been many findings to date.)
This may help in research or bring some closure.
News reports today,(February the 2nd 2010), have highlighted how two teenage boys have been charged with deliberately lighting one of the fires. The ABC website reads:
Almost a year after the Black Saturday bushfires devastated Victoria, two teenage boys have been charged with lighting the Bendigo blaze that killed a disabled man in his home.
One of the boys, 14, appeared in a children's court dressed in his school uniform to answer extensive charges including arson causing death.
The other boy, 15, appeared in a separate court. Both youths were bailed.
Taskforce Phoenix detectives arrested the boys about 9am (AEDT) on Tuesday in relation to the February 7 Maiden Gully fire, which police estimate caused $23.5 million damage to the area.
An angry crowd of about 10 people greeted the 14-year-old outside court on Tuesday, some yelling "show us your face" as the shrouded boy was driven away.
The boy was flanked by two detectives and a uniformed policeman and had a jumper draped over his head.
He was bundled into an unmarked car flanked by another six uniformed officers.
House-bound Long Gully man Kevin "Mick" Kane, 47, died in the fire after he was trapped inside his home.
The youths were each charged with arson causing death, deliberately lighting a bushfire, lighting a fire on total fire ban day and lighting a fire in a country area during extreme weather conditions.
They were also charged with 135 counts each of criminal damage by fire (arson) and multiple counts of use telecommunications service to menace, harass over a two-month period beginning just days before the fire.
As a result of the Maiden Gully fire in Bendigo, 354 hectares of land, 61 houses and 125 sheds and outbuildings were destroyed.
Properties destroyed included a pottery business and a home worth half a million dollars.
The Black Saturday fires killed 173 people across Victoria and destroyed more than 2000 properties.
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The final report from the Royal Commission was handed down from their findings of the investigation into the tragic events that unfolded in February 2009. I posted this report as a final closure to this thread for anyone that may be researching the event or just wanting to know what valuable lessons can be learnt. I found the last page of the PDF file somewhat sobering and brought a personal feeling to the event when it lists all the names to those who lost their lives.
The PDF file link can be found at this stage at http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/31/2969763.htm (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/31/2969763.htm)
Victoria's Bushfires Royal Commission has recommended sweeping policy changes in response to the Black Saturday and Gippsland bushfires.
After 155 days of hearings, including evidence from more than 400 witnesses, the Royal Commission has handed down its final report with 67 recommendations.
The commissioners have called for a "comprehensive approach to evacuation" including the potential for "emergency evacuations" when doing so would provide a greater level of protection.
The report has also called for designated community refuges in areas of high bushfire risk and for the appointment of an independent fire commissioner.
The Commission wants the Government to roughly quadruple the amount of controlled burning it undertakes.
It has also recommended parts of Victoria's ageing electricity infrastructure be upgraded to reduce the risk of fires.
The report has also flagged a program of voluntary acquisition for homes in high-risk areas.
A total of 173 people were killed and thousands were left homeless when bushfires swept across Victoria on February 7, 2009.
The Commission also examined the bushfire that destroyed 30 homes in Gippsland the week before Black Saturday.
The report concludes former Victorian Police chief commissioner Christine Nixon took a "hands off" approach on Black Saturday.
It says her performance on the day "left much to be desired".
Ms Nixon has admitted going to dinner at a Melbourne hotel as the fires raged.
The Commission found Ms Nixon, former Country Fire Authority chief Russel Rees and the head of the Department of Sustainability and Environment, Ewan Waller, "did not demonstrate effective leadership in crucial areas" by ensuring that "prompt and accurate warnings were issued to communities in the path of the fires".
Government response
The Government will not respond to the Commission's recommendations for several weeks after consulting with the community.
Victorian Premier John Brumby will meet bushfire survivors today.
He will also receive a briefing about the report's recommendations.
Mr Brumby says the release of the report will be difficult for survivors and those who lost loved ones in the fires.
He has called on the wider community to throw its support behind fire-affected communities.
"I think it's important for all Victorians, indeed all Australians, to recognise, to acknowledge, to understand the trauma, the hurt, the pain that all of those families, their friends and their extended families will be feeling today," he said.
Mr Brumby says it is important for the Government to consider its response to the report carefully.
"As Premier I feel the full weight of responsibility to make sure that we get our response to the Commission's report right to make sure we make our state as safe as possible," he said.
"The people of our state want the opportunity to have some input."
'Gaps' in report
Communities affected by the bushfires are beginning to examine the final report.
Copies were delivered to fire-affected communities and community hubs have been set up in some areas to give survivors the chance to read the findings in a supportive environment.
Lyn Gunter, the mayor of Murrindindi when the Black Saturday fires swept through the shire, says there are some "gaps" in the final report.
"I'm encouraged but I don't think it's enough," she said.
"The major gaps are going to be the communications, the safer places and the identification of those.
"And it's about knowing these are going to be implemented.
"People want the confidence to know these recommendations and the recommendations for their safety are going to be implemented."