Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Mathew Townsend on 06 January 2011, 03:54:32 AM
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Hey all, GFS and ACCESS models looking thick for the rain ahead for the region. However we better focus one day at a time. BoM saying possible hail with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the first time today for Northern Rivers.
Not sure if this good thing but i can see the windshear is improving.
Best chasing wishes
Matt
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Hi guys,
Has been pretty stormy over the last few days. Been some small hail about in my area also (around 6mm).
We were out on storms from midnight until 2am this morning. There were 4-5 that we could see, sitting around the horizon from our West to North to East. Lightning was very active though a lot was hidden in the dense rain cores. I will post a shot or two today at some point. The mosquito's almost carried us off!
Rain has been minimal as the storms have mostly skirted around the town area. We only picked up 10mm from the previous storms earlier in the week but wind gusts were very strong! It was enough to blow the guttering off my mums house and break a few branches of large trees here and there.
Been fairly showery this morning. See what develops a bit later on.
Kindest regards.
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The Weatherzone forecast for Sydney next Tuesday is interesting, though it has changed from Possible Shower to Showers since this afternoon. What hasn't changed is Chance of Rain 90%, Rain Amount 40-80mm.
That seems like some pretty serious showers to me, especially given that 6 hours ago they were only possible.
Some rumbles here later this afternoon off in the distance, apparently Lithgow got hit with a downpour that collapsed a retaining wall rupturing gas and water mains, and there was also a landslip over the road in the mountains. Some of the cells up towards Coonamble looked nasty as well, and the NE looks like it is getting a fair soaking again.
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Hi,
Just got back from Lithgow after waiting all afternoon wandering whether to chase the Putty Road or Lithgow. As soon as I arrived just above Lithgow, the storm was very lightning active but I could hardly see the storm given low level cloud was racing in. Well I was at the base level of the storm! I could make out a green tinge through the organised low cloud base. Here is the photograph of the storm as I approached:
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/0105jd04.jpg)
I observed hail estimated at 1.5cm possibly 2cm. However, my initial estimate of photographed hail of 2.5cm further south of my vantage point was an underestimate. I think more like 3.0cm hail about 1 hour after the storm had passed (no
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/0105jd12.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/0105jd05.jpg)
Flooding occurred in Lithgow with tree branches down and no doubt blackouts I would assume given the amount of powerful bolts around.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/0105jd16.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2011/0105jd13.jpg)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Lismore just peaked 4.05 metres this morning (below minor flood level). Ballina scored 147mm of rain so far and now expecting to worsen from today according to the low developing.
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Some very heavy rainfalls in the area south of Gympie yesterday and overnight - though quite localised.
The latest flood warning for the area:
Rainfall totals of up to 300mm have been recorded since 9am Friday causing major
flooding between Gympie and Tiaro. River levels at Maryborough will rise further
today with a peak expected during Sunday of around 9 metres, possibly higher.
Moderate to major flooding is occurring in Wide Bay Creek, Munna and Tinana
Creeks. Further rain is forecast.
Major flood levels are rising between Miva and Tiaro and along Wide Bay Creek at
Brooyar. Rises to 18 metres are expected at Tiaro overnight with further rises
possible.
River levels at Maryborough will rise further today with a peak expected during
Sunday of around 9 metres, possibly higher. For comparison, the 1999 peak flood
level was 8.75 metres.
Minor flooding is occurring in the upper Mary River between Moy Pocket and Dagun
Pocket. A moderate flood peak of just over 14 metres is expected at Gympie
during Saturday. At 10am Saturday, the river level at Gympie was 13.94 metres
and rising. Moderate flood levels are occurring along Six Mile Creek at Cooran
and are expected to fall through today.
Meanwhile, a renewed flood watch has been issued for the NSW Northern Rivers. This area along with SE QLD is in the firing line for very significant falls Sunday to Tuesday.
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TWEED, BRUNSWICK, RICHMOND/WILSONS, CLARENCE AND BELLINGER RIVER VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY TO TUESDAY
Issued at 9:46 am EDT on Saturday 8 January 2011
Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].
Further heavy rain is predicted for the NSW northern rivers from Sunday to Tuesday.
The above catchments are wet from recent rain so there is a higher than 70% of local and main river flooding developing during Sunday evening onwards in the following:
1. Tweed Valley - moderate flooding including local flooding in several areas including Chillingham
2. Richmond and Wilsons Valleys - moderate to major flooding
3. Brunswick Valley - moderate to major flooding
4. Clarence Valley - including the Orara River - minor to moderate flooding
5. Bellingen Valley - minor to moderate flooding
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Hi guys,
Boy there's some nice storms kicking around this season! Great coverage by all! Very interesting reading and some amazing photos.
I have one of the only CG shots that I managed on the early morning's storms from Wednesday the 5th. There were several storms still highly active by the time I returned home around 2am. We almost got carried off by mosquito's and made getting out almost impossible. We were still getting badly bitten even when using plenty of Bushman's Repellent. No fun at all. These storms dumped 10mm in town but the bulk of the intense cores visible were mostly out to our North, sitting up around the border towns of Angledool and Hebel.
I'm keeping an eye on the Narran River heights now and again also. Seems this flood will be around a metre higher on average for some rivers in this area than the March 2010 event according to the BoM.
The photograph below was taken around 1:20am and is looking almost straight North of the Ridge. The cell was moving left to right across this photo.
Kindest regards.
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Hi Shauno,
Yeah the mozzies !!! Geez they even got to Rodney when we were in Narrabri on Monday evening and he's normally the last person they touch. No bad mosquitos around my place despite all the rain.
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Hi MB,
Most definitely! They are a real pest to say the least. We too have noticed they aren't "so bad" in town, but head out into the surrounding bush and you just about need to be wearing chainmail armour to stop the little so-and-so's.
I was being attacked through a long sleeved thick cotton shirt and jeans! I might not go out again unless it's really necessary ie; furious CG hitting very close to town surrounded by insane structure! That's not asking much is it? lol.
Looking like a decent rain event for the N-NE N.S.W. area over the coming days. Should be an interesting few days.
Kindest regards.
Shauno.
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Hi all
Flood warnings and severe weather warning is in place for us from this afternoon. BoM are looking at 70-100mm before 2pm as this rainband arrives however this could lead into major flooding for Richmond and Wilsons. Wilsons River at Lismore is peaking for 2nd time around 4pm this afternoon, as this rain arrives it will make it worse. Ballina scored over 255mm over for past 6 days now and it going to be doubled in next 24hours!
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So far 8 confirmed dead from Toowoomba. 71 (updated) Missing and I think all up another 12 people dead from the start of the flooding up here. At least 20 deaths and that number will rise.
If you want to follow what unfolded as it took place please read WZ forum http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/926313#Post926313 (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/926313#Post926313) especially from page 188 - 214. later pages has a lot of disturbing images as they became available.
We are a long way from being out of trouble up here.
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Steady rain here since early morning with occasional torrential falls and very close CG lightning.
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Lot of things still happening on our side and the event hasn't even started for NR 'yet'! Even though not even over yet.
Wilsons and Richmond Are under high alert for major flooding from this afternoon when the rain coming in.
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MINOR FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHMOND AND WILSONS RIVERS
Issued at 8:28 am EDT on Tuesday 11 January 2011
Flood Warning Number: 10
The Wilsons River at Lismore was 5.04 metres and near its peak at 7.05am this morning [11/01/11] with minor flooding.
The Richmond River at Kyogle Peaked near 13.4 metres at 11pm Monday [10/01/11] with minor flooding.
The Richmond River at Casino Road Bridge was 8.4 metres and rising at 7:55am this morning [11/01/11].
Minor flooding is current at Coraki and Bungawalbin.
Further rainfall is forecast for the next 24 hours which could result in increased flooding in the Richmond and Wilsons River Valleys. The situation is being closely monitored and revised predictions issued if necessary.
A Flood Watch is current for renewed moderate to major flooding along the Richmond and Wilsons River for the next 2 days.
Predicted River Heights/Flows:
Lismore -
Peak near 5.1 metres around 10am today [11/01/11], with minor flooding.
Casino Road Bridge -
Peak near 9.2 metres around midday today [11/01/11] with minor flooding.
Coraki -
Reach 4.5 metres around midday today [11/01/11] with minor flooding.
Bungawalbin -
Reach 4.0 metres this afternoon [11/01/11] with minor flooding.
The next warning will be issued at 1:00pm Tuesday [11/01/11].
Latest River Heights:
Location Height of River Date/Time of Observation
Richmond R at Wiangaree 7.36m falling 07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Kyogle 12.75m falling 07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Casino 10.4m rising 07:55 AM TUE 11/01/11
Eden Ck at Doubtful 8.08m steady 07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Shannon Brook at Yorklea 8.54m rising 07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Leycester Ck at Rock Valley 3.39m rising 08:18 AM TUE 11/01/11
Goolmangar Ck at Nimbin 3.29m rising 08:08 AM TUE 11/01/11
Back Ck at Bentley 4.68m falling 08:23 AM TUE 11/01/11
Terania Ck at The Channon 4.14m falling 08:23 AM TUE 11/01/11
Coopers Ck at Repentance 2.31m steady 08:22 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Nashua 2.66m rising 08:20 AM TUE 11/01/11
Coopers Ck at Corndale 4.83m rising 08:22 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Eltham 4.49m falling 08:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Woodlawn (mAHD) 5.48m rising 08:19 AM TUE 11/01/11
Leycester Ck at Tuncester (mAHD) 5.55m falling 08:21 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Lismore (mAHD) 5.05m steady 08:21 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Coraki 4.03m rising 06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Myrtle Ck at Rappville 5.1m rising 06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Bungawalbyn 3.56m steady 06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Woodburn 2.59m steady 06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
So the river is only under flood watch at the moment.
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The Clarence River at Grafton going for a major peak of 7.6m later today which is only 30cm below the top of the levee wall. Doesn't get up that high too often. Major flooding downstream to Maclean too.
Tenterfield copped serious flooding yesterday as well. It's normally just a small creek through that area at an elevation of 800m, but 230mm in quick time will do that. Certainly no rainfall intensities like Toowoomba and elsewhere. I think it's the first time I've seen footage of flooding in Tenterfield.
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Definately a tragic disaster that has unfolded in SE Qld and my heart goes out to all who got caught in the initial phenominal flash flood and the esuing disaster.
I have heard unsubstantiated reports that the BoM said that 170mm fell in 30 minutes near Toowoomba in what they have called a "super rain storm". Is this true? Has anyone else heard anything like this?
The flash flood event bears a striking resemblance to a lahar which you would normally see caused by the rapid melting of a volcanic ice cap.
Regards Jeff.
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Hi Jeff,
This was posted on WZ by a member from Withcott (5ks east of Toowoomba city)
hi guys. Just on my mobile as i have no power and phone line at my home in withcott. Everything fine but withcott is a mess. I spent the day helping cleaning the town up. The water that went down the lockyer was insane. Withcott had 1m of water go through it. The helidon bridge went under by 1.5m! Thats a 20m bridge! Ive heard alot of horrific stories that i wont repeat. The death toll will unfortunately be many more. We received 180.6mm on monday. Most of that fell in less than an hour. We had 430mm for the week and 1100mm in the last 6 weeks.
The Bremer River at Ipswich peaked at 19.4m around 4pm yesterday (about 1m below the 1974 level)
The Brisbane River at the CBD gauge appeared to have peaked at 4.46m 3-4am this morning
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SEQ is an absolute mess, the destruction, devastation and emotional effects are very disturbing. Although the flood caused considerable damage through out many regions, we in Brisbane, in some ways had a slight reprieve by a lower flood height of 4.6 M. This was partly due to very good management and communication between hydrologist controlling the dam and the emergency co-ordinators and everyone else involved.
Thousands were still affected and our hearts go out to them. It does in no way take away the fact that many people have lost every thing and some have lost loved ones. The death toll continues to rise.
To add a little tension there is a low that has developed in the north Coral sea around Willis Island. All eyes will be on this system because some models have this tracking down the coast towards the SE.
Hopefully the members on this forum may be able to put together a summary of events in Qld and NSW shortly to help explain what happened.
Stay safe
Colin
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It's been an unbelievable event up there in SEQ, and with the people still missing the news will only get worse. Some incredible pictures I have seen out of Brisbane.
After the initial flood event in Toowoomba I checked out some of the river guages on the BoM site, one guage (which I can't recall and in any case has scrolled off the page) went from 4.5 to 12.5 metres in 55 minutes. You just can't prepare for something like that.
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This thread is worth having a look at:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/928166/ (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/928166/)
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This event has surpassed 1976 flood levels either side of Great Divide for the northern part of the NSW Northern Tablelands.
The Monday into Tuesday rainfalls in the greater Tenterfield region resulted in:
- the highest flood of the Clarence River at Tabulam since 1976 (not much data for other locations until you get to near Grafton)
- record flooding of the Dumaresq River Bonshaw and downstream.
- major flooding of the Macintyre and Severn rivers (Ashford region) which contribute to the Goondiwindi threat (not sure of any records those areas)
- worst flooding in Tenterfield since 1954
The Dumaresq River at Bonshaw Weir peaked at 8.12 metres Wednesday morning. This is a new record and exceeded the 1976 flood level by 0.25 metres. River levels peaked at Bengalla this morning at 10.95 metres which is above the 1976 flood peak.
We were only at the Bonshaw Weir - Texas area last week while on storm chase and it was already in minor flood prior to this rain.
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As everyone has, I have been watching in disbelief with regards to the coverage of the disaster. In particular was the ferocity of the rainfall event and resulting flash flood in Toowoomba, Grantham, Helidon and similar communities. I do sympathise for communities downstream and the hardship they have had to endure in terms of loss of property. However, read some more thoughts in my next post.
Murphy's Creek Flood - Inland Tsunami @ Tiddalac 2011 (Between Toowoomba & Grantham) by Jake (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOgydxdFmOQ#)
Toowoomba Flood 2011.01.10 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYUpkPTcqPY#)
toowoomba flash flood (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh1IgdMNsus#)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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My thoughts on the disaster downstream? This is a major catastrophe - but how much of this could have been avoided?
When I saw footage of the new football stadium and some CBD buildings in water, I shook my head in disbelief. Why? Why have we not learned the lesson of the 1974 floods and planned around it? It seems planners and developers alike allow for building within the flood zone. Countless suburbs were affected by floodwaters - some almost or entirely submerged! Yes I am quite aware of the homes and pubs that have been there for many years but how about the new homes? I wonder how many of these new land owners were 'mislead' into buying property with assurances like - "I have been here for 25 years and it is has never flooded here".
Further to this, these distraught home owners are going to rebuild - how many would have had insurance that covers for such disasters. Who is going to pay for similar massive and avoidable clean up in the future? Surely commonsense legislation should be passed to not allow for a repeat on this scale and restrict development outside flood zones or should I saw within the flood zones. In NSW, my understanding is that planning very much restricts the type of building and development that takes place in flood zones.
It is all about risk assessment and reduction - let's hope commonsense prevails.
Kind regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I respond further to what Jimmy said in his post above regarding building on flood plains.
I am a town planner and have been in development assessment at Auburn City Council since April 1997. In New South Wales there are zoning controls in Local Environmental Plans (LEP)s which should restrict or even prohibit urban development on flood plains. It is people like me who has responsibility when assessing a developing application for a new building to check flood potential of sites and impact of development on that flood plain. We have a duty of care under Section 79C of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (As amended) to assess this amongst other matters that must be addressed.
In Auburn for example, there are flood zones and as part of the development assessment process, I must look at flooding or have the Council's Drainage and Development Engineer look at the flood risk. There have been instances where I have refused development applications due to flooding. I have had a recent case where a residential development for a granny flat could not proceed due to flooding.
Planners like myself must have duty of care to consider flooding. It is clear that in Brisbane much urban development has occurred on a floodplain which may have contributed to the disaster.
I was reading an article in "The Australian" dated 13/1/2011 titled "Alarming Report on Brisbane River Risk Covered Up" by Hedley Thomas and it is suggested that scientific and engineering experts had forwarned of significant risks of vast destruction of flooding from the Brisbane River as far back as 1999. A Brisbane River Flood Study prepared at the time made alarming findings regarding possible flooding during a significant flood. Engineers and hydrologists involved in the study warned that the next major flood in Brisbane would be 1 and 2 metres higher than anticipated by the Brisbane Town Plan.
The study highlighted how the Council had permitted development of thousands of properties whose owners were led to believe they would be out of harms way in a flood of similar scale to 1974. The study was leaked in June 2003 and it appeared that governments were more interested in property development rather than flood plain management. The calculated 1 in 100 year flood was found to be higher than anticipated.
The report was covered up until it was leaked. Knowledge of the flood risk was known but planning rules did not change (This is a summary of that article dated 13/1/2010).
It does suggest heavy urban development has continued unabated along the flood plain and planning rules did not change despite the flood risks being known.
The operators of Wivenhoe Dam have also come under fire in terms of operations. Should water have been released prior to the event to try and lessen the impact of the flood and to create extra capacity to attenuate the flood?
I am sure there will be lessons to be learnt and inquiries held to find out what happened. I keep seeing in the news bulletins that the damage bill and economic loses will top $13 Billion making it easily Australia's costliest natural disaster to date.
One thing is certain, building a major city on a river with a known history of serious floods is poor planning and unwise.
Harley Pearman
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Hi Harley and all
We were discussing this building on a flood plain thing at work on Friday, and someone commented that a lot of the new developments up towards Rouse Hill are also on a 1 in 100 year floodplain. Some are on hills but a lot of that land is flat, and when I used to visit there 25 years ago was paddocks and orchards. Now it's townhouses gone mad. We can only wait until that goes under.
While I realise Sydney is under pressure for more and more housing (something I disagree with but that's another story - can't we decentralise with modern communications) why put the houses there where it will flood eventually. Up towards Dural/Glenorie has huge amounts of land on ridges that will never flood, and is no further from the CBD.
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Hi all. Have been a little quite as have had a few things going on and i try to post a few photos taken from around here soon. Brisbane flood maps if anyone is interested. http://lexiphanic.com/floodmaps/ (http://lexiphanic.com/floodmaps/)
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I saw news reports today that suggested that stormchasers/weather watchers were suggesting the flash flooding for Lockyer Valley about 90 minutes before it hit, while BoM hadn't issued a warning. Hopefully this is something that can be addressed by the enquiry. Should those chasers have phones the bureau, or should the bureau be monitoring those forums? I am assuming it is weatherzone forums though haven't checked.
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I cannot believe that we had gone from a drought to the worst floods in living memory in Queensland. It definitely swamps what occurred in other floods - certainly a historic event! Let's hope the recovery process can be quicker than is being depicted although from an infrastructure perspective, it definitely will be years!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi everyone. I know this might seem like past history but i thought i would share these photos here. Received these photos by email the other day showing how quickly the water rose in one part of the Grantham area. These four photos were taken from a farm near Helidon on the 10/01/2011. This farm is upstream from Grantham which got the full force of this creek,and another creek (Flagstone Creek) which joins into it just before Grantham. There has never been any flood water on this location before. The timestamps on the photos say it all !
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Unfortunately i cant seem to upload these photos at the moment, will do when possible.
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Hi everyone. Sorry for the delay in posting these photos. The time stamps indicate how quickly it rose in this area. (http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/j413/barnungeacle/7a2dce52.gif) (http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/j413/barnungeacle/338104ee.gif) (http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/j413/barnungeacle/0e8281a0.gif) (http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/j413/barnungeacle/9e4564b6.gif)
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That is rather rapid! Wow! Flash flood!
Thanks for posting the images.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Thanks for posting Simon, the speed and volume of that flood is phenomenal!
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Hi guys,
In response to my concerning comments about the inadequecies of the Queensland Flooding disasters and now coupled with the Tropical Cyclone Yasi events, I received my insurance premiums from a well know insurance company - you know the main one in NSW. Insurance premiums have doubled - yes doubled since last year! And I have heard this (doubled premiums) is the case with other insurance companies.
Just incredible!
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Our house is insured with one of the main providers who does cover floods, and since the Gap Storm hit in 2008 the policy sky rocketed. The policy paid approx.6 months ago was $1367.00. We live on top of a high hill about 65 meters above sea level and the crime rate is not too bad. Cant imagine the cost for renewal next time around. May have to sell a kidney on E Bay. :-\