Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum

Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: Colin Maitland on 06 October 2010, 10:01:41 AM

Title: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 06 October 2010, 10:01:41 AM
BOM is going for the forecast of a possible storm for Brisbane and SEQ on Thursday (07/10/10) afternoon.

Mean while a severe storm warning has just been issued for the Wide Bay and Burnett area with  a small cell that has developed around Childers.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of the
Wide Bay and Burnett Forecast District.

Issued at 2:52 pm Tuesday, 5 October 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Childers.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 06 October 2010, 12:18:06 PM
The forecast from BOM for Melbourne and parts of Victoria for Wednesday the 06/10/10 is:

Cloudy. Patchy fog early in the morning. Isolated showers developing during the morning, increasing to scattered heavy showers around midday, easing to isolated showers later in the evening. Scattered thunderstorms from the late morning until evening. Winds northeasterly averaging up to 20 km/h tending northerly up to 35 km/h during the morning then tending west to southwesterly by early evening.


Sam Terry from Weather Zone News reported on the event by stating

Australia is only a little way into the storm season and already severe storms are on the way, with Melbourne in the firing line of a battering.

A fast-moving cold front is poised to sweep into Victoria and Tasmania tomorrow, causing thunderstorms to fire up in the areas ahead of it.

The Western and Wimmera districts should be affected first, with storms perhaps even popping up as early as 8am. As the day progresses, the storms should become more frequent and widespread.

Plenty of moisture will filter in ahead of the front, and instability will be deep, both factors that indicate heavy rain and flash flooding could occur.

Melbourne will be a sitting duck as the front approaches, with northwesterly winds driving in showers and storms from the higher ground. Storms are likeliest during early afternoon, but could occur anywhere from 10am to 3pm.

Behind the front, winds will be very gusty and much cooler, delivering showers during the evening. All in all, residents of central Victoria should be prepared for a wild day.

Keep checking weatherzone.com.au for the latest forecasts.


Col

Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Peter J on 07 October 2010, 03:42:30 AM
For those interested in chasing storms today in VIC:

From my vantage point in the outer East, there is already a storm tower forming in the west (estimated around Bendigo) it is a weak one at the moment, but it could strengthen as the day goes on... yesterday finished humid, and this morning (9.35am) is warm and humid - just one cell in visible sight... and the winds have picked up - certainly warmer than normal here.
For once I think we are in for severe storm as forecasted...

Peter J
(observing)
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Hardy25 on 07 October 2010, 04:14:33 AM
For those interested in chasing storms today in VIC:

From my vantage point in the outer East, there is already a storm tower forming in the west (estimated around Bendigo) it is a weak one at the moment, but it could strengthen as the day goes on... yesterday finished humid, and this morning (9.35am) is warm and humid - just one cell in visible sight... and the winds have picked up - certainly warmer than normal here.
For once I think we are in for severe storm as forecasted...

Peter J
(observing)


yeah i agree with the warm weather in vic atm, not unusual for this time of year but coming straight out of winter weather last week im guessing some nice storms will build today
might go out and take a look see if i can get some pics, gotta love day off
we had some really heavy rain 2 nights ago over bayside very loud on the tin roof



*edit* 1:46pm chased storm cells south of bay side but moving too fast to continue to get in front of it
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 07 October 2010, 08:04:07 AM
Looking at some of the Sat obs late yesterday afternoon it looked like Victoria was in for some severe weather .
BOM have issued 2 warnings one for Melbourne area and the latter for  people in the Northern Country, North Central, East Gippsland, Central and parts of the Mallee, Northeast, Wimmera, West and South Gippsland, Western and Alpine Forecast Districts.  The warnings are both similar.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the South East, Western Port and parts of the Inner, Eastern, Mornington Peninsula, Outer East and Port Phillip Local Warning Areas.

Issued at 1:36 pm Wednesday, 6 October 2010.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:35 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Camberwell, Caulfield, Melbourne City and the area east of Colac. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Cranbourne, Dandenong and Frankston by 2:05 pm and Bass, San Remo and Wonthaggi by 2:35 pm.

Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.


Southern NSW has also been issued a STW

EVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in parts of the
Riverina and
Lower Western Forecast Districts.

Issued at 1:39 pm Wednesday, 6 October 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Albury, Deniliquin, Hay and Balranald.


Take care

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Hardy25 on 07 October 2010, 08:10:16 AM
its pretty intense we went up2 carrum and watched it pass over but it started pelting rain and we ended up drenched

its pretty active lots of thunder and lightning we had a strike under 15 meters away and was almost like a flash bang

we decided there was way too much rain to continue and looking at radar the really active cells had already moved offshore and the other one was not accesable to us its on the western side of the bay moving south and offshore

the storms are moving pretty fast and we werent positioned well enough to get anything great footage wise or picture wise

i should of looked at forecast models last night and this morning but was busy, but was a very fun late morning and early afternoon

*edit*  there are still some very active storms pushing through now, but its full of very heavy rain
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Richary on 07 October 2010, 08:57:16 AM
The Yarrawonga doppler wind looks like something nasty is happening around Numurkah at the moment (0352 timestamp).
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Hardy25 on 07 October 2010, 09:23:38 AM
The Yarrawonga doppler wind looks like something nasty is happening around Numurkah at the moment (0352 timestamp).

looks like a rotation of some sorts you can see the 2 small red bits hmmm good spotting'

anybody else more knowledgeable on this?
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 07 October 2010, 10:33:37 AM
Unfortunately I missed on seeing any rotation on the radar,( I'll need to check the archive run for today) but I did observe that wind gust reached 70 km/h at St Kilda Harbour RMYS at 1.21 pm, 69 km/h at Rhyll at 1.54pm and 72 km/h at Fawkner Beacon at 1.06pm. Much of Melbourne had wind gust over 50-60km/h as the front moved through.

The day satellite image is very impressive but I have not posted it due to the file still being 156KB.

The radar was also impressive as you can see the squall line move through to the south of Victoria

It will very interesting to hear or see any reports or chases from folks down there.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Kristy Norman on 07 October 2010, 10:43:46 AM
Some action around this arvo, these photos taken at about 4:15 to 4:30 looking South, south west from our place.

Nice to see some Spring storms this year!!

Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Kristy Norman on 07 October 2010, 11:22:32 AM
A few more from a storm belting us hard at the moment.


Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Richary on 07 October 2010, 11:31:38 AM
Here is the Yarrawonga doppler wind loop between 2-4pm local time.

See : 128km Radar Loop for Yarrawonga, 03:00 06/10/2010 to 05:00 06/10/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR49I/2010-10-06-03/2010-10-06-05/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR49I-yarrawonga/2010-10-06-03/2010-10-06-05)
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 07 October 2010, 01:07:19 PM
Storm warnings are still in place for NSW and Victoria. Currently this is large area still under threat from severe storms in Victoria as the threat slowly moves east.

Tomorrow afternoon should see parts of Northern NSW and QLD affected by storms as the trough continues to move in an easterly direction.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 07 October 2010, 03:30:03 PM
It looks like NE NSW and SE QLD are in with a possible storm tomorrow after midday.

the image gif below is the BSCH outlook of Cape tomorrow 10am - 7pm (CLICK ON GIF TO ACTIVATE PLAY)

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 07 October 2010, 04:25:56 PM
hey gang have Created a Gif from todays event you may save it if you wish i hope you enjoy

 (http://i733.photobucket.com/albums/ww337/pacificblue03/Storm%20events/Melb-6102010.gif)

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 08 October 2010, 04:18:48 AM
Good morning everyone has someone got any good vibes for some thunder action in the northern rivers today?

currently 27.9C here and 65% hum

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Michael Thomas on 08 October 2010, 06:54:19 AM
I think there is a chance of some nice storms today over the norther rivers. The Brisbane sounding this morning looks pretty good besides a horrible inversion around 700 mbar. The temp around 600 mbar is set to cool during the day which should help alot. SE change is moving up the coast in the afternoon much may provide a focus for storm development. Shear is a bit on the weak side but should be enough for storm organisation if things come together. I would really like to see some on the inland stations (Grafton, Casino) hitting say 28/18 in the afternoon for a good shot at severe storms. That will give say 1500-1800 j/kg of sbCAPE. Any more is a bonus. The dew point at Grafton has just drop a few degrees in the last hour which might suggest that the coastal moisture is a bit shallow. Casino is holding strong though. A couple of weak echoes showing up now. Will be interesting to see what this afternoon holds.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Karina Roberts (slavegirl) on 08 October 2010, 09:14:06 AM
development seems to be trying to take of whichever way i look out at beaudesert at the moment it looks like we may see a storm this afternoon will make sue to get pics if one does eventuate here :)
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Shaun Galman on 08 October 2010, 01:37:41 PM
Hi guys!

I was lucky enough to be in Albury yesterday (came back to lightning Ridge today) as an amazing storm cell came down through Rutherglen past Albury and straight over Wodonga. I hadn't seen such a nice, severe looking storm in ages. It wasn't long-lived but both the structure and greenish colouring were unreal around 6pm as it passed Albury!

I was shopping at Bunnings at the time so unfortunately I didn't have my camera- just an awesome view  ;)
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 08 October 2010, 04:13:12 PM
STW has been issued for the Northern Rivers and Northern Tablelands.

Hopefully MB,Jason and others in the area may get some evening lightning shots.


For people in parts of the
Northern Rivers and
Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:45 pm Thursday, 7 October 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Casino, Kyogle, Coraki, Tabulam and Whiporie.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 08 October 2010, 04:28:12 PM
There is a huge cell situated northeast from Kyogle at the moment it looks to hit se QLD as it is moving NE.

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: James on 08 October 2010, 04:47:32 PM
Headed west of Casino tonight to attempt some lightning photos. The storm was certainly very sus from a visual perspective for a good half hour or so. However in the end it got destroyed by outflow which really surged ahead and killed it. Those storms forming over Murwillumbah and Kyogle are forming on the edge of the outflow from the Casino stuff. The change is only just hitting here now in Lismore. Interesting you can see the two southerly surges on Brisbane doppler.

Thankfully one nice shot from the Casino storm. A good start to the season.

  (http://sydneystormchasers.com/system/files/images/16405+copy-sm.jpg) 
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Rodney Wallbridge on 08 October 2010, 05:44:59 PM
Hi all, its time to kick off my storm seasion tonight. I ventured into Casino for a few pics and met up with Jason....in the cemetary. Spooky stuff as Jase killed off the storm I sent him home to the sin bin :) Nice piccy there James!
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/rodney/20101007rw.jpg)
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 09 October 2010, 01:32:39 AM
Love the pics.

The storms from the slow moving trough from the west finally made its way into Brisbane early this morning around 1.00 am.

Lightning was more IC sheet lightning with some pretty good cracks of thunder to be heard and rattling the house. The main damage was that caused by the storm was from excessive amounts of rain and thus flash flooding.

Some of the totals from around the suburbs of Brisbane due to the storm were.

East Brisbane AL *      60mm
Bulimba AL *          84mm
Carindale          55 mm
Camp Hill AL          71mm
Toombul(Nudgee Rd) AL           77mm
Geebung AL         69mm
Deagon            75mm
Redcliffe         71mm
Mt  Mee                 76mm

The 6.00am news on the radio suggested there is a lot of chaos around areas of Brisbane, so as the morning progresses more reports should become available.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Michael Bath on 09 October 2010, 02:28:39 AM
Great captures of the lightning James and Rodney. The storm was certainly interesting on radar while it was S to SE of Mallanganee.

128km Radar Loop for Grafton, 05:00 07/10/2010 to 12:00 07/10/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR283/2010-10-07-05/2010-10-07-12/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR283-grafton/2010-10-07-05/2010-10-07-12)


Bit surprised the Bris BoM did not issue a flash flood warning for the slow moving storms early this morning - some quite high totals there.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Michael Bath on 09 October 2010, 03:46:46 AM
The attached shots were taken by my father from Grafton yesterday 7th Oct between 3.20 and 3.30pm EDT.  Radar showed the cell over the Wooli area.

Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 09 October 2010, 04:52:25 AM
Nice photos from your father there Michael. I can see that there must be  Canon versus Nikon camera debates when the family gets together.  :)

The big question being asked today is why there was no STW in place for this event, especially for flash flooding. I suppose it will be something that BOM will have to investigate internally. I checked EWN just in case I had missed one but there was no warning issued. The Brisbane City council has subscribed to the EWN and now my warnings are not as pin point accurate as before. We just receive a blanket warning for the area.

It is specially interesting to observe the 512 km Brisbane radar archive for this event.
You will be able to observe the slow moving trough visible around the Northern area of NSW, from early morning as it crept ever so slow towards the coast and gained momentum as it approached Tenterfield, Casino,Lismore etc, and then worked its way up the coast.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR661-brisbane/2010-10-07-00/2010-10-08-00 (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR661-brisbane/2010-10-07-00/2010-10-08-00)

Similar to the 2006 season at this stage with very late/early morning storms.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Michael Bath on 09 October 2010, 05:37:37 AM
Hi Col - my father just mainly uses the compacts these days and the Canon's are quite nice!:)



I took a few photos from home yesterday. This first one was over the Gold Coast

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/1007mb01.jpg)


The first "storm" in the region (no thunder or lightning observed) tracked from just west of me then NNE to the Nightcap Ranges. This photo at 2.45pm EDT

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/1007mb02.jpg)

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/1007mb08.jpg)

A Border Ranges cell at 5pm EDT that didn't last long:

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/1007mb14.jpg)


Bit of lightning as the line reformed over Kyogle (9.30pm EDT) then went on into Brisbane early this morning.

(http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/1007mb16.jpg)

All the photos taken yesterday can be found here (http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F085___07+october+2010+mb)



Regarding the warnings

The Bureau of Meteorology probably should have issued a STW for flash flooding, but with little rain prior to this event (it was all south of Brisbane earlier this week) and the time of the event, who would have received it/known?  Apart from weather nuts like us.

As to EWN, we can only issue what the BoM issue. Since the BCC got involved almost every thunderstorm event has been a mess of storms, no discreet supercells so warnings will be general covering large areas. It would have been the same result without BCC. Have a look at the radar archives from the days in question. On the 29th Sep alerts were done in various stages - not just one.

regards, Michael

Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 09 October 2010, 01:26:29 PM
Heaps of rain still in SE QLD and also now NE NSW i think the hole thing is moving toward us we might get some high totals again.

Quote
Heavy rain which has been affecting Queensland is set to ease over the weekend and tend mainly coastal, as a high pressure ridge pushes an inland trough northeast.

A deep trough and a moist atmosphere over the country's northeast have caused the heavy rainfall and storms across the state.

In the 24 hours to 9am on Friday the 8th of October, Brisbane recorded 54mm of rain in the gauge, which is the wettest October day in 9 years and the highest daily total since March this year. But not only the capital city was soaked with rain.

Redcliffe (just to the northeast of Brisbane), recorded 77mm in the 24 hours to 9am, the highest recorded rainfall there in 6 years of records for October.

The rain and storms which crossed the Southeast today also hit the rain gauges in northeast NSW, but significantly less rainfall amounts were recorded.

The weekend outlook for the sunshine state does not look very sunny. An intense high lingering over the Tasman Sea will maintain the strong southeasterly winds across most of the QLD coast, resulting in scattered showers over the east and possible thunderstorms in the northwest.

- Weatherzone

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 10 October 2010, 01:56:34 AM
The weather system that caused the storms on the SE QLD and NSW Coast on Thursday/ Friday is persisting, the current forecast is for rain periods to continue for the next couple of days.
An amazing amount of rain has fallen last night in many areas. The Brisbane Airport  has received 42.6 mm as at 6.55am EST, but it appears at this early stage, that most has fallen around the North Coast with 224 mm thus far recorded at Tewantin  with still over 2 hours to go before the 9.00am totals are complete.

This has prompted BoM to issue a severe weather warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding
For people in the Sunshine Coast and Hinterland.   

Issued at 4:40 am on Saturday 9 October 2010

Synoptic Situation:
An upper trough combined with a strong SE change has caused heavy rain areas
over the Sunshine Coast and Hinterland during the night. Heaviest falls since 9
AM Friday are Lake Cooroibah 238mm, Tewantin 230mm, Noosa Heads 211mm, Baroon
Dam 157mm, Eudlo 151mm, Mapleton 162mm, Cooroy 147mm and Palmwoods 137mm.

Rain areas likely to continue in the area during the day, however heavy rain
areas causing flash flooding has now moved off the coast.


Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 10 October 2010, 08:17:05 AM
Flooding in Sunshine coast.

A disaster coordination centre has been activated on Queensland's Sunshine Coast where heavy rain caused flash flooding and landslips overnight.

More than 250 millimetres of rain has bucketed down across the region since 9:00am yesterday.

At one stage overnight up to 80 millimetres of rain fell in just one hour.

State Emergency Service crews have been sandbagging and putting tarps on leaky roofs.

Heavy equipment is scraping sand and debris off the road after a landslip on Noosa Drive.

The disaster coordination centre's Allan Rogers says there is concern a pool may collapse at the Picture Point Resort at Noosa.

"[It has] exposed the foundations of a swimming pool there and there's been quite a deluge of sand been taken down onto main drive in Noosa," he said.

"The pool is currently being inspected by a structural engineer and they'll make some decisions as to the safety of the pool."

He says other landslips have now been cleaned up.

Meanwhile, authorities say this morning's high tide could cause more problems with storm water run-off.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Vikash Prasad says more heavy rain is likely tonight or tomorrow.

"We were looking at hourly rainfalls of getting up to 70 to 80 millimetres in the Sunshine Coast hinterland area. You could probably say it's like a 10 year period where you can get that sort of rainfall," he said.

The Tewantin and Noosa region had the biggest falls - nearby Lake Cooribah recorded 257 millimetres in 24 hours.

- ABC

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 10 October 2010, 11:19:44 AM
WOW the next 48hours look wet!

the rain is now effecting us more here as it has gotten heavy now.

Antonio.

(http://i733.photobucket.com/albums/ww337/pacificblue03/Synoptics/10-15oct2010.gif)
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 10 October 2010, 11:22:59 AM
Also warnings are out!

SE Qld bracing for more torrential rain
Saturday October 9, 2010 - 15:18 EDT
Authorities are warning residents on Queensland's Sunshine Coast to brace for more severe weather.

More than 260 millimetres fell in the 24 hours to 9:00am (AEST) this morning causing landslips and flash flooding, and closing roads.

The Weather Bureau has issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds and flash flooding on the south-east coast overnight and tomorrow.

Shane Wood from Emergency Management Queensland says residents need to prepare.

"The bureau are predicting some winds coming through tonight and tomorrow and potentially a little bit more rain," he said.

"So we're asking residents to ensure that they've secured all loose items around the home, to make sure that they don't go out in the severe winds, because if there are objects they are quite dangerous."

Brian Rolstone from the Weather Bureau says there will also be gale force winds tomorrow and conditions could be extreme.

"You got to have all the elements right and in the wet years you tend to get that. You get a lot of these features sometimes these east coast lows and lots of rain along the east coast. so the total rain by the end of Monday from now probably in the range of 100 to 200 millimetres," he said.

In the brief respite, authorities are assessing the damage on the Sunshine Coast.

Allan Rogers from the council's Disaster Management Group says traffic is now flowing into Noosa after a landslip was cleared on Noosa Drive.

"We have some minor flooding in the hinterland areas around Eumundi and up towards Pomona. Six mile creek is up - there's a lot of water in the catchment. You know clearing the drains and making sure that the storm water can get away - that's the main work that we're doing at the moment," he said.

And Western Downs regional mayor Ray Brown says the record wet is taking its toll on winter cereal crops.

"A lot of those mildewy type diseases and in the case of wheat a lot of rust has occurred, so it's affecting a lot of the crops themselves during the growth stages. He says the big wet will affect yields," he said.

The widespread rain has closed numerous roads across southern Queensland.

Police have advised motorists to take extra care and not to drive across flooded roads or creeks.

Overnight two people were rescued when their car was stranded in a flooded creek near Jandowae north of Dalby

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 10 October 2010, 12:13:00 PM
As Antonio 2nd last post indicated with the GFS run, NE NSW and SEQ coastal areas are in for a fair bit more rain over the next 48 hours if this trough hangs around as it predicted to do.

It has been a cold and windy day here in Brisbane's Northern bayside.(Bracken Ridge/Sandgate.) Cape Moreton to the East of us has had wind gust up to 85Km/h.

I went down to the waterfront at Sandgate just before high tide this morning and took a few shots of the Bay. You could see the ocean surging and the water was lapping over the walls. Some minor flooding has been recorded in the usual flood pron areas.

If conditions persist it may offer a better photo opportunity tomorrow.


Take care

Col.



Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 10 October 2010, 03:58:39 PM
Just a quick update rain is getting heavier still.

Weatherzone was talking about a East coast low <<

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 11 October 2010, 01:52:13 AM
So far we have had another 13+mm of rain and winds have peaked at 96km/h at Cape Moreton at 3.47 am this morning and 93 at Double Island Point.

An update on the severe weather system from BoM issued this morning at 5.05am warns:

Synoptic Situation:
An intensifying high over the Tasman Sea. A deep trough off the southern
Queensland coast.

The combination of these two systems is expected to produce wind gusts in excess
of 90 km/hr, mainly along the exposed coast and over the islands. As the trough
moves closer to the coast expect increasing rain during the day with locally
heavy falls developing, particularly late in the day or at night, with the
possibility of flash flooding.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 11 October 2010, 02:02:29 AM
Just a quick update rain is getting heavier still.

Weatherzone was talking about a East coast low <<

Antonio.

I read that as well Antonio, they stated

You get a lot of these features sometimes these east coast lows and lots of rain along the east coast, so the total rain by the end of Monday from now probably in the range of 100 to 200 millimetres."

Giving them the benefit of the doubt, it has not come out correct with what he was trying to relay, or it could have been slightly misquoted or ........... (no we wont say they got it wrong. ;))

It is definitely not an East Coast Low (ECL). Hpa Pressure reading at home is 1024 and steady and has been for the last 24 hours. The airport is sitting on 1021 Hpa. What we have is a trough over QLD/ NE NSW and a high over the Tasman which is causing this rigorous system to produce strong winds and rain.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 11 October 2010, 03:58:03 AM
Oh i see now so the trough and combined High with the hectopascals so close together are causing this wind.

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 11 October 2010, 04:18:21 AM
The trough is a form of a low but is not an "East Coast Low" as such, which is a more intense low pressure system of say for example, having a Hpa of around 990 and less.

The trough/low that is embedded around SEQ NE/ NSW is about 1016 Hpa and that combining with the Tasman high of 1036 Hpa, and rising, is generating the storm system we have at present.
 


Col.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 11 October 2010, 04:43:03 AM
thanks col

Oh my goodnes where did this wind come from all of a sudden just now reached 45kmh
21.6mm in last 24 hours. 8.8 since 9am.

Antonio
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Michael Bath on 11 October 2010, 05:45:36 AM
30.4mm to 9am this morning and 10mm so far today.  Should be some big accumulations by tomorrow.

SWW for the Northern Rivers has been issued.

Quote
Severe Weather Warning
for flash flooding
for people in the Northern Tablelands and Northern Rivers forecast districts

Issued at 11:16 am EDT on Sunday 10 October 2010.
Weather Situation

Deepening low pressure trough off NSW far north coast is expected to bring locally heavy rain this evening and Monday morning.

Showers and rain may lead to flash flooding for the northern parts of Northern Tablelands and Northern Rivers forecast districts.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

    * Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
    * Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 11 October 2010, 05:49:33 AM
The next 24 hours look very wet as Michael stated high high totals

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 11 October 2010, 01:30:42 PM
The power was out for 4 hors due to a tree falling on 2 powerlines 5 minutes away i think tonight we are going to have to buckle down Byron bay at the moment is close to 75kmh gusts.

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 11 October 2010, 01:49:30 PM
I ended up sick this morning and spent a long time at the doctors, so there went my venture down to the water front to take some pics. Going from yesterdays look,it would have quite dramatic this afternoon with the high tide and storm surge.

It has been wet, windy and cold all day here.

Cape Moreton recorded 106 km/h winds and the wave rider buoy at North Stradbroke registered a H.Max of 9.00 meters.

There has been reports of roof damage and debris being blown around in some suburbs, along with massive beach erosion and we are to expect the worst to hit tonight.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 11 October 2010, 03:11:32 PM
Hey OMG the wind here is shocking its getting more and more you can see all wind on my page of station here http://www.ballina-nsw-weather-from-stormboy.com/trends.htm (http://www.ballina-nsw-weather-from-stormboy.com/trends.htm) also does anyone know if we will get into the 60kms? (Ballina)

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 11 October 2010, 06:43:46 PM
Rain and wind is nuts can you see 86kms at Byron bay!

and just look how much rain has fallen NOTE Red = 100+mm Purple = 30+mm

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 11 October 2010, 10:05:46 PM
Thunder is rolling in at 3.00 Am EST so it should start to ease over the next 40- 60 minutes to showers.

Torrential rain here most of the morning, so far we have received another 42 mm of rain.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 October 2010, 02:17:43 AM
I'm not too sure but the Redcliffe Cam shows something very interesting just look.

Adjacent images available here:
http://webcams.bsch.au.com/archive.html?vi=redcliffe_w/2010/10/11/980x734_051825.jpg (http://webcams.bsch.au.com/archive.html?vi=redcliffe_w/2010/10/11/980x734_051825.jpg)

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 12 October 2010, 03:04:39 AM
Another 60 mm of rain at the airport since 4.00am and still absolutely bucketing. We are totally cut off here at Bracken Ridge with flood water. Brisbane is at a grid lock right now.

The radar at 3.00am showed it was going to clear to maybe showers. At around 4.30 am it eased for a short period, but the system just keeps dragging moisture in from the ocean in the form of heavy rain.

Col
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Michael Bath on 12 October 2010, 03:10:47 AM
Certainly persistent through the Northern Suburbs and some +50mm falls in the past hour east of North Pine Dam. Glad to see the decent falls finally got into Brisbane.

Upper Springbrook is the stand-out total so far with 315mm in the 24 hours to 9am EST.

My totals for the event:

8th: 1.4mm
9th: 13.4mm
10th: 30.4mm
11th: 55.6mm

Total: 100.8mm

MTD: 394.6mm


Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 October 2010, 05:34:35 AM
The image here http://webcams.bsch.au.com/archive.html?vi=redcliffe_w/2010/10/11/980x734_051825.jpg (http://webcams.bsch.au.com/archive.html?vi=redcliffe_w/2010/10/11/980x734_051825.jpg) has been confirmed as a small waterspout on the WZ forums, huge totals in SEQLD and north NE NSW so much rain also flooding in many areas see here http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/889923/31 (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/889923/31)

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Steven on 12 October 2010, 06:28:48 AM
Since Friday we've had a collective total of 177.6mm from the accumulative rainfall, most of which fell last night at around 2am. Most of the rain that fell last night was stationary and just seemed to keep persisting over a wide area. Local streams were experiencing some minor flooding this morning, but nothing too serious.

Rainfall totals (official reports, not mine):

8/10: 34.8
9/10: 56.8
10/10: 16.8
11/10: 69.2

Total: 177.6mm

MTD: 184.6mm
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 12 October 2010, 06:30:45 AM
179mm here at Bracken Ridge since 9.00am yesterday and most of that fell in the last 8 hours.

Below is the Brisbane Metropolitan 24 hour rain totals. Some insane amounts have been recorded hence the flooding around Brisbane.

Just tried to get out and have a " safe look," but police have us barricaded in, everything is cut off around the area.

Col.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 October 2010, 07:07:58 AM
Colin please i would like to know where you get those rainfall maps i dont like the bom ones thanks

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 12 October 2010, 09:07:57 AM
 ;D  it is a BoM map.   ;)

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/qld_metro.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/qld_metro.shtml)
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 October 2010, 10:42:31 AM
Many Thanxx col

how did you navigate to there i was under rainfall and river conditions but my above post pic popped up thanxx again

Antonio.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Steven on 12 October 2010, 05:29:47 PM
Excerpt from SEQ Water (http://www.seqwater.com.au/public/home).

Quote
South East Queensland dams continue to receive inflows from surrounding catchments after heavy rainfalls across the region over the weekend.

Over the weekend Wivenhoe Dam reached the trigger point to begin minor controlled flood gate releases for the first time since January 2001. The below is the current update for the region.

It is important to note that Wivenhoe Dam was constructed primarily as a flood mitigation storage for Brisbane following the 1974 floods. While the drinking water storage capacity is currently just above full supply, Wivenhoe Dam has an additional flood capacity of almost 1.5 times that of the drinking water storage capacity.


This flood mitigation feature was planned from the very beginning. That additional capacity, although not intended to be used for drinking water, is currently saving the metropolitan from being flooded again like it did in 1974.
Title: RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 12 October 2010, 06:20:41 PM
wow read this


The Brisbane City Council says a combination of heavy rainfall, flooding and full dams have all the hallmarks of the period leading up to to the 1974 floods in south east Queensland.

Record-breaking rainfall has flooded waterways, roads and homes, cut power and filled the region's dams.

The SES has received more than 2,000 calls for help since early this morning, with homes, businesses and properties flooded on Brisbane's north side.

Queensland's Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts says there are parts of the city affected that have not been flooded in a decade.

The Lord Mayor Campbell Newman admits he is worried.

"Back in '73 there was an extended period of wet leading up to January '74 where we had a cyclonic rain event which turned into a rain depression and then dumped a whole lot of rain in the catchment areas," he said.

"That's something that will one day happen again and given that this is the first time we have had so much rain, plus with full dams, again it is of concern."

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) weather forecasters say it is going to be wet for most of the week.

Many parts of the south-east have already broken October rainfall records.

BOM senior forecaster Brett Harrison says the heaviest falls are on Brisbane's northern outskirts, but conditions have eased slightly on the Gold Coast to the south and parts of the northern Sunshine Coast.

Mr Harrison says the wet weather is not expected to clear in the south-east until Thursday.

"The rainfall has become a bit more focussed now compared to affecting the whole south-east coast that we saw this morning," he said.

"The heaviest rain is affecting the northern parts of Brisbane and out towards the north-west and west."

At least 20 people from Deagon, on Brisbane's northern bayside, were evacuated from their homes because of a high tide around midday.

Resident Kerryn Watkins says she has lost everything.

"It's just a disaster, absolute disaster," she said.

Don Baker says it is the worst flooding he has seen in the area since he arrived in 1984.

"The police came and told us we had to go and that was it," he said.

Deputy Premier Paul Lucas says 20 stranded motorists have been rescued from their cars over the past few days.

"I just say to people, do not make yourself a statistic here," he said.

Energex says about 20,000 homes and businesses lost power over the past 24 hours, although supplies have been restored to nearly all of them.

- ABC

© ABC 2010


Antonio.
Title: Re: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 13 October 2010, 02:15:04 AM
Wivenhoe dam was designed on the basis of the mitigation reports and findings of the 1974 floods, when ex tropical cyclone Wanda crossed the coast and formed into a rain depression.

A lot of media and political hype over the last 25 or so years has lulled a lot of people into a false sense of security in thinking that Brisbane will not flood again like it did in 1974.

There are many of us who have lived here all our lives and have never had faith in the prognosis. Lord Mayor Campbell Newman basically stated on the news last night that, just because we have Wivenhoe Dam does not mean that we will not have another 1974 flood.

Due to major infrastructural changes to Brisbane affecting causeways and catchment areas etc, and the fact that many developers have built in major flood prone areas, does give rise for concern.

Plus add in the fact that not all storm systems are going replicate Ex cyclone Wandas characteristics and track paths.

Also it is off interest to note on the building and development side of the issue, the flood plan level in Brisbane has been raised in many areas by over 600 mm.

Many residents in Deagon have lived there for decades, way before the 1974 floods, and as they said last night, "They have never seen this happen before."  (Deagon was not affected in the 1974 floods.)

Is it possible for Brisbane to flood again like 1974 or worse. Yes it is. If you are new to Brisbane and the surrounding areas and are planning on building or buying a house, be very careful. The Brisbane City Council has tried to buy back some of the worst flood prone houses but the owners have refused to sell. Property values will collapse and some of the worst affected areas are prestige addresses.

Col
 
Some reference material    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/flood-residents-stay-on/story-e6freoof-1111117145726 (http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/flood-residents-stay-on/story-e6freoof-1111117145726)

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbanes-most-floodprone-suburbs-revealed-20091030-hoym.html (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbanes-most-floodprone-suburbs-revealed-20091030-hoym.html)

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/brisbane-city-budget-at-a-glance-20100609-xuu0.html (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/brisbane-city-budget-at-a-glance-20100609-xuu0.html)
Title: Re: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Steven on 13 October 2010, 03:23:20 AM
Of course Brisbane isn't invincible from future floods. I don't understand why council gave the OK for urban development on these low lying areas, but time will catch up with those who live there. Many older properties with stilts may survive a major flood, but a lot of the newer properties with single a level won't stand a chance.
Title: Re: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Colin Maitland on 13 October 2010, 02:47:52 PM
Just a couple of photos of the Bald Hill Flats at Pine Rivers on the Northside of Brisbane. The only access into Strathpine was via the high road. The lower road was approx 3 meters under raging water. As we drove through there would have only have been about 2 feet of road above water and both roads would have been cut.  I was unable to capture a good photo of that section because I could not pull over anywhere to do so.

It was hard to get many photos because every where I tried to go, I was denied access by the Police and barricades.  
Title: Re: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: rogeressig on 15 October 2010, 03:59:04 AM
I edited a timelapse of the storm that came through South Victoria on the 6th of october, at the end of the clip is some lightning, nice storm!

South East Vic Storm chase 6th October 2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_oU_y_IEqw#ws)

Title: Re: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Antonio (stormboy) on 15 October 2010, 06:33:58 AM
rogeressig Nice video there was good to see, how many hours was that?

Antonio.
Title: Re: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
Post by: Taipan on 04 November 2010, 12:50:44 PM
Hey Guys,
Hope all is well. Here's a couple of gust front shots of a storm that passed west of Melbourne on Wednesday 06 October.
All the Best,
Chris.

(http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt359/Hoplocephalus/GustFront061010.jpg)

(http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt359/Hoplocephalus/GustFront020001.jpg)

(http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt359/Hoplocephalus/GustFront030001.jpg)