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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks October 2003
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]

              GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS - OCTOBER 2003


          !!!! IMPORTANT -- PLEASE SEE NOTE AT END OF FILE !!!!


*************************************************************************

ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
  forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
  Hurricane Center located in Miami, Florida.   A 1-minute averaging
  period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
  warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.

     A special thanks to David Roth of the Hydrometeorological Prediction
  Center (HPC) for compiling and sending me the tracks for a couple of
  non-tropical systems which nonetheless warranted interest.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Storm LARRY (17)                           30 Sep - 06 Oct
   Non-tropical LOW                                    09 - 12 Oct
   Tropical Storm MINDY (18)                           10 - 14 Oct
   Tropical Storm NICHOLAS (19)                        13 - 23 Oct
   Frontal Hybrid LOW                                  14 - 19 Oct
   Possible Subtropical LOW                            27 Oct - 06 Nov

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: LARRY                 Cyclone Number: 17      Basin: ATL


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 SEP 30 1800  21.0 N   92.0 W  1006   40        Non-tropical LOW
03 OCT 01 0000  21.0 N   93.0 W  1006   40
03 OCT 01 0600  21.0 N   94.0 W  1006   40
03 OCT 01 1200  21.0 N   94.0 W  1006   40
03 OCT 01 1800  21.0 N   93.5 W  1003   40
03 OCT 02 0000  21.0 N   93.5 W  1003   45        Tropical Storm Larry
03 OCT 02 0600  21.0 N   93.5 W  1003   45
03 OCT 02 1200  21.0 N   93.5 W  1003   45
03 OCT 02 1800  20.3 N   93.5 W   996   50
03 OCT 03 0000  20.5 N   94.0 W   993   50
03 OCT 03 0600  20.4 N   94.1 W   993   50
03 OCT 03 1200  20.0 N   94.7 W   997   50
03 OCT 03 1800  19.9 N   94.7 W   995   50
03 OCT 04 0000  19.8 N   94.7 W   995   50
03 OCT 04 0600  19.5 N   94.0 W   994   50
03 OCT 04 1200  19.4 N   93.8 W   994   50
03 OCT 04 1800  18.8 N   93.8 W   996   50
03 OCT 05 0000  18.6 N   93.6 W   996   50
03 OCT 05 0600  18.5 N   93.5 W   996   50
03 OCT 05 1200  18.4 N   93.5 W   997   50         Moving inland
03 OCT 05 1800  18.3 N   93.7 W  1002   35
03 OCT 06 0000  18.1 N   93.9 W  1004   35
03 OCT 06 0600  17.5 N   93.9 W  1005   25
03 OCT 06 0900  17.3 N   94.0 W  1005   20

Note: The tracking and intensity information prior to the issuance of the
first tropical cyclone advisory at 02/0000 UTC was obtained from the TPC
portion of the High Seas Forecasts.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: ATL
(Non-tropical LOW which had some organized convection)

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 09 1800  25.0 N   77.0 W  1011   15
03 OCT 10 0000  26.0 N   77.0 W  1010   10
03 OCT 10 0600  28.0 N   77.0 W  1009   10
03 OCT 10 1200  31.0 N   76.0 W  1010   15
03 OCT 10 1800  35.0 N   72.0 W  1008   20
03 OCT 11 0000  36.0 N   73.0 W  1007   20
03 OCT 11 0600  36.0 N   73.0 W  1007   20
03 OCT 11 1200  36.0 N   72.0 W  1009   30
03 OCT 11 1800  37.0 N   72.0 W  1010   30        Frontal wave
03 OCT 12 0000  37.0 N   72.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 12 0600  38.0 N   71.5 W  1007   25

Note: The track above was supplied by David Roth of HPC.  David writes:
"The system looked most impressive late on the 10th with a good amount
of convection ENE of the center.  It was carried by OPC as a gale around
that time, but I didn't see any gale-force winds plotted on the OPC
maps--doesn't mean they weren't existent, though."  David stopped the
track on the 12th as the system had become frontal in nature.  The
LOW subsequently became a large storm in the North Atlantic on
14-18 October with the pressure falling to around 980 mb.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: MINDY                 Cyclone Number: 18      Basin: ATL


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 10 1800  18.8 N   68.6 W  1004   35        Near NE tip Hispaniola
03 OCT 11 0000  19.9 N   69.5 W  1002   40
03 OCT 11 0600  21.2 N   70.0 W  1002   40
03 OCT 11 1200  21.8 N   71.3 W  1007   40
03 OCT 11 1800  22.8 N   71.4 W  1007   35
03 OCT 12 0000  23.7 N   71.9 W  1006   35
03 OCT 12 0600  24.0 N   72.4 W  1007   35
03 OCT 12 1200  24.7 N   72.1 W  1007   35
03 OCT 12 1800  25.5 N   72.0 W  1008   30
03 OCT 13 0000  25.6 N   71.3 W  1008   30
03 OCT 13 0600  25.7 N   70.3 W  1008   30
03 OCT 13 1200  25.8 N   69.3 W  1008   25
03 OCT 13 1800  26.0 N   68.3 W  1007   25
03 OCT 14 0000  25.9 N   67.7 W  1008   25
03 OCT 14 0600  26.0 N   67.0 W  1009   25        Remnant LOW
03 OCT 14 1200  26.0 N   66.0 W  1011   20

Note: The final two positions and MSW values were obtained from the TPC
portion of the High Seas Forecasts.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: NICHOLAS              Cyclone Number: 19      Basin: ATL


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 13 1800   9.6 N   38.4 W  1008   25
03 OCT 14 0000   9.8 N   39.2 W  1006   30
03 OCT 14 0600  10.0 N   40.1 W  1006   30
03 OCT 14 1200  10.6 N   41.0 W  1006   30
03 OCT 14 1800  11.1 N   41.9 W  1006   30
03 OCT 15 0000  11.4 N   42.6 W  1003   35
03 OCT 15 0600  11.7 N   43.3 W  1000   45
03 OCT 15 1200  11.8 N   43.6 W  1000   45
03 OCT 15 1800  12.2 N   44.2 W  1000   45
03 OCT 16 0000  12.7 N   44.9 W  1000   45
03 OCT 16 0600  13.1 N   45.5 W   997   50
03 OCT 16 1200  13.5 N   45.9 W   997   50
03 OCT 16 1800  14.2 N   46.7 W   994   55
03 OCT 17 0000  14.4 N   47.5 W   995   55
03 OCT 17 0600  14.8 N   47.8 W   995   55
03 OCT 17 1200  15.8 N   48.1 W   990   60
03 OCT 17 1800  16.1 N   48.3 W   994   55
03 OCT 18 0000  16.5 N   48.4 W   994   55
03 OCT 18 0600  17.0 N   48.4 W   994   55
03 OCT 18 1200  16.8 N   47.7 W   994   55
03 OCT 18 1800  17.1 N   47.7 W   997   50
03 OCT 19 0000  17.2 N   48.1 W  1000   45
03 OCT 19 0600  17.4 N   48.1 W  1000   45
03 OCT 19 1200  17.7 N   47.7 W   997   50
03 OCT 19 1800  17.7 N   47.5 W  1000   45
03 OCT 20 0000  17.7 N   47.5 W  1000   45
03 OCT 20 0600  17.7 N   47.5 W  1000   45
03 OCT 20 1200  17.9 N   48.2 W  1002   40
03 OCT 20 1800  18.1 N   49.0 W  1005   35
03 OCT 21 0000  18.3 N   49.6 W  1005   35
03 OCT 21 0600  18.6 N   50.1 W  1005   40
03 OCT 21 1200  18.4 N   51.2 W  1002   45
03 OCT 21 1800  18.4 N   52.0 W  1005   40
03 OCT 22 0000  18.9 N   52.6 W  1002   40
03 OCT 22 0600  18.4 N   53.7 W  1005   35
03 OCT 22 1200  18.8 N   54.1 W  1005   35
03 OCT 22 1800  19.6 N   54.5 W  1005   35
03 OCT 23 0000  20.6 N   55.6 W  1005   35
03 OCT 23 0600  21.7 N   56.1 W  1007   30
03 OCT 23 1200  22.4 N   56.4 W  1007   30
03 OCT 23 1800  23.6 N   56.9 W  1008   25
03 OCT 23 2100  24.3 N   56.8 W  1008   25

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: ATL
(System was frontal, but had some organized convection)

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 14 0600  31.0 N   62.0 W  1008   25
03 OCT 14 1200  32.0 N   59.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 14 1800  33.0 N   57.0 W  1006   25
03 OCT 15 0000  37.0 N   53.0 W  1002   25
03 OCT 15 0600  37.0 N   51.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 15 1200  36.0 N   51.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 15 1800  37.0 N   50.0 W  1006   25
03 OCT 16 0000  37.0 N   48.0 W  1006   25
03 OCT 16 0600  37.0 N   47.0 W  1004   25
03 OCT 16 1200  37.0 N   47.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 16 1800  37.0 N   47.0 W  1006   25
03 OCT 17 0000  37.0 N   46.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 17 0600  37.0 N   46.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 17 1200  37.0 N   46.0 W  1010   30
03 OCT 17 1800  36.0 N   45.0 W  1010   25
03 OCT 18 0000  36.0 N   45.0 W  1012   25
03 OCT 18 0600  36.0 N   44.0 W  1007   25
03 OCT 18 1200  35.0 N   42.0 W  1010   30
03 OCT 18 1800  35.0 N   41.0 W  1010   25
03 OCT 19 0000  33.0 N   41.0 W  1011   25
03 OCT 19 0600  32.0 N   40.0 W  1010   25
03 OCT 19 1200  32.0 N   41.0 W  1013   25
03 OCT 19 1800  32.0 N   41.0 W  1014   25

Note: All the above information was obtained from OPC's High Seas Fore-
casts.  On the morning of 15 October I noticed that this LOW appeared
to have some features of a subtropical system.  I e-mailed a query to
David Roth at HPC.  David replied that the system could be classed as
a frontal hybrid--a MCS blew up over and north of the LOW's warm front.
The system appeared somewhat organized-looking on 17 October with an
eye-like feature in the middle of a ring of shallow convection, but
by the evening of the 18th no convection remained near the center.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: ATL
(Initially frontal LOW which acquired some subtropical features)

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 27 1200  25.0 N   64.0 W  1009   15        Frontal
03 OCT 27 1800  25.5 N   64.0 W  1006   15        No fronts
03 OCT 28 0000  25.5 N   64.5 W  1008   15        Convection SE of center
03 OCT 28 0600  26.0 N   65.0 W  1008   15
03 OCT 28 1200  26.0 N   65.0 W  1007   15
03 OCT 28 1800  26.0 N   65.0 W  1007   15
03 OCT 29 0000  25.5 N   65.5 W  1008   15        Convection NE of center
03 OCT 29 0600  29.0 N   68.0 W  1008   25        Relocated
03 OCT 29 1200  29.0 N   68.0 W  1009   25
03 OCT 29 1800  30.0 N   68.0 W  1009   20
03 OCT 30 0000  30.5 N   67.0 W  1011   10
03 OCT 30 0600  30.0 N   66.0 W  1010   10
03 OCT 30 1200  29.5 N   66.0 W  1011   10
03 OCT 30 1800  29.0 N   65.0 W  1011   25
03 OCT 31 0000  29.0 N   65.5 W  1009   35
03 OCT 31 0600  28.5 N   66.0 W  1008   30
03 OCT 31 1200  27.0 N   67.0 W  1008   25        Cb returns NE of center
03 OCT 31 1800  26.0 N   66.0 W  1007   30
03 NOV 01 0000  26.5 N   66.0 W  1007   30
03 NOV 01 0600  26.5 N   66.0 W  1006   30
03 NOV 01 1200  27.0 N   66.0 W  1006   30
03 NOV 01 1800  28.0 N   67.0 W  1007   30
03 NOV 02 0000  27.5 N   68.5 W  1006   35
03 NOV 02 0600  27.5 N   70.0 W  1006   35
03 NOV 02 1200  27.5 N   72.0 W  1009   40        Cb shifts SW of center
03 NOV 02 1800  27.0 N   74.0 W  1008   30
03 NOV 03 0000  26.0 N   77.0 W  1006   30
03 NOV 03 0600  27.0 N   80.0 W  1008   25        On SE Florida coast
03 NOV 03 1200  26.5 N   82.5 W  1008   20        In Gulf of Mexico
03 NOV 03 1800  27.0 N   83.5 W  1007   20
03 NOV 04 0000  27.0 N   86.0 W  1007   25
03 NOV 04 0600  27.0 N   87.5 W  1007   25
03 NOV 04 1200  27.5 N   88.0 W  1008   20        Cb reflares SE of cntr
03 NOV 04 1800  28.0 N   88.5 W  1008   20        Devoid of convection
03 NOV 05 0000  29.0 N   89.0 W  1007   15        Over mouth of Miss Riv
03 NOV 05 0600  29.5 N   89.5 W  1009   10        SE of New Orleans
03 NOV 05 1200  30.5 N   89.0 W  1011    5        On Mississippi coast
03 NOV 05 1800  31.0 N   88.5 W  1014             Inland
03 NOV 06 0000  31.5 N   89.0 W  1014

Note: The track above was supplied by David Roth of HPC.  In its early
stages this system was associated with the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Nicholas; however, by the time the LOW had entered the Gulf of
Mexico and intensification to tropical or subtropical storm status was
considered a possibility, it had been decided by NHC that if the system
did require naming, it would be Odette instead of a rejuvenation of
Nicholas.  The system at times displayed some subtropical features, and
David Roth reported that he had learned from Jack Beven that it might be
reclassified as an unnumbered tropical depression.   Central pressures
and MSW are based upon ship reports.

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates, central pressure and 1-minute average
  maximum sustained wind values were obtained from the operational
  forecast/advisories issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National
  Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, for locations east of longitude
  140W, and from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,
  Hawaii, for locations west of longitude 140W.  A 1-minute averaging
  period is the standard used by all U. S. civilian and military
  warning services for tropical cyclone warnings.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Hurricane NORA (14E)                                01 - 09 Oct
   Hurricane OLAF (15E)                                03 - 08 Oct
   Hurricane PATRICIA (16E)                            20 - 26 Oct

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: NORA                  Cyclone Number: 14E     Basin: NEP


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 01 1800  15.8 N  108.3 W  1007   25
03 OCT 02 0000  15.6 N  108.4 W  1005   30
03 OCT 02 0600  15.7 N  108.8 W  1005   35
03 OCT 02 1200  15.7 N  109.1 W  1005   35
03 OCT 02 1800  15.2 N  109.0 W  1002   40
03 OCT 03 0000  15.1 N  109.1 W   997   50
03 OCT 03 0600  15.0 N  109.3 W   997   55
03 OCT 03 1200  15.3 N  109.3 W   994   55
03 OCT 03 1800  16.0 N  109.7 W   992   60
03 OCT 04 0000  16.2 N  110.2 W   987   65
03 OCT 04 0600  16.5 N  110.9 W   981   75
03 OCT 04 1200  16.9 N  111.5 W   970   90
03 OCT 04 1800  17.4 N  112.0 W   970   90
03 OCT 05 0000  18.0 N  112.6 W   970   90
03 OCT 05 0600  18.5 N  113.0 W   970   85
03 OCT 05 1200  19.0 N  113.3 W   973   85
03 OCT 05 1800  19.3 N  113.6 W   976   80
03 OCT 06 0000  19.7 N  113.9 W   979   75
03 OCT 06 0600  20.1 N  113.9 W   987   65
03 OCT 06 1200  20.2 N  113.9 W   997   50
03 OCT 06 1800  20.1 N  113.9 W  1000   40
03 OCT 07 0000  20.3 N  113.6 W  1002   35
03 OCT 07 0600  20.5 N  113.3 W  1003   30
03 OCT 07 1200  20.1 N  112.6 W  1003   30
03 OCT 07 1800  20.1 N  111.6 W  1002   30
03 OCT 08 0000  20.3 N  110.4 W  1002   30
03 OCT 08 0600  20.5 N  109.2 W  1002   25
03 OCT 08 1200  21.0 N  108.0 W  1004   25
03 OCT 08 1800  22.3 N  107.2 W  1004   25
03 OCT 09 0000  23.1 N  106.9 W  1003   25
03 OCT 09 0600  23.8 N  106.7 W  1006   20        Inland
03 OCT 09 0900  24.2 N  106.7 W  1006   20

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: OLAF                  Cyclone Number: 15E     Basin: NEP


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 03 1200  12.0 N   99.4 W  1005   30
03 OCT 03 1800  12.4 N   99.4 W  1000   40
03 OCT 04 0000  13.2 N   99.8 W  1000   45
03 OCT 04 0600  13.6 N  100.4 W  1000   45
03 OCT 04 1200  14.1 N  100.9 W   997   50
03 OCT 04 1800  15.0 N  102.2 W   994   55
03 OCT 05 0000  15.6 N  103.5 W   990   60
03 OCT 05 0600  16.4 N  103.5 W   994   55
03 OCT 05 1200  16.8 N  104.1 W   987   65
03 OCT 05 1800  17.8 N  105.0 W   987   65
03 OCT 06 0000  17.5 N  105.2 W   992   65
03 OCT 06 0600  18.4 N  105.9 W   992   65
03 OCT 06 1200  19.2 N  106.1 W   987   65        See Note
03 OCT 06 1800  17.8 N  104.3 W   998   35        Relocated / See Note
03 OCT 07 0000  18.5 N  104.5 W   997   50
03 OCT 07 0600  19.0 N  104.6 W   997   55
03 OCT 07 1200  19.6 N  104.6 W   999   45        Inland
03 OCT 07 1800  20.3 N  104.5 W  1002   30
03 OCT 08 0000  21.0 N  104.0 W  1004   25
03 OCT 08 0300  21.3 N  103.8 W  1004   25        Dissipated

Note: A special advisory was issued at 06/1800 UTC after a reconnaissance
plane reached the storm area, downgrading Olaf from a minimal hurricane
to a minimal tropical storm, and also drastically relocating the center.
The 06/1200 UTC position given in the track above is the original one,
included in the 1500 UTC forecast/advisory.  The special advisory at
1800 UTC gave the 1200 UTC position as 17.4N, 104.5W.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: PATRICIA              Cyclone Number: 16E     Basin: NEP


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 20 1200   9.8 N  100.0 W  1007   30
03 OCT 20 1800  10.3 N  101.3 W  1002   40
03 OCT 21 0000  10.5 N  101.9 W  1000   45
03 OCT 21 0600  10.8 N  102.6 W  1000   55
03 OCT 21 1200  11.5 N  103.2 W   987   65
03 OCT 21 1800  11.5 N  104.1 W   984   65
03 OCT 22 0000  11.9 N  105.1 W   981   70
03 OCT 22 0600  11.9 N  105.8 W   987   65
03 OCT 22 1200  12.2 N  106.5 W   987   65
03 OCT 22 1800  12.2 N  107.9 W   994   55
03 OCT 23 0000  12.4 N  108.6 W   997   50
03 OCT 23 0600  12.9 N  109.7 W   997   50
03 OCT 23 1200  13.2 N  110.7 W  1000   40
03 OCT 23 1800  13.2 N  111.8 W  1005   35
03 OCT 24 0000  13.6 N  112.3 W  1005   35
03 OCT 24 0600  13.8 N  112.7 W  1005   35
03 OCT 24 1200  14.3 N  113.0 W  1002   40
03 OCT 24 1800  14.3 N  113.2 W  1002   40
03 OCT 25 0000  14.5 N  113.4 W  1002   35
03 OCT 25 0600  14.9 N  113.5 W  1005   35
03 OCT 25 1200  15.4 N  113.8 W  1008   30
03 OCT 25 1800  16.0 N  114.0 W  1008   30
03 OCT 26 0000  16.0 N  114.8 W  1008   25
03 OCT 26 0300  16.2 N  114.9 W  1008   25

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180


                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.  The central pressure and 10-minute
  average maximum sustained wind estimates for most systems were obtained
  from warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), which
  is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
  ological Centre for the basin.  In a few instances, information from
  warnings issued by other Asian warning centers may have been utilized.
  The center position coordinates from JMA and other centers were com-
  pared with those from JTWC and annotations made in the Remarks column
  when the differences in general amounted to 40-50 nm or more.

     Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
  Typhoon 2000 website, sends me cyclone tracks based upon warnings
  issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency and the Philippines'
  Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
  (PAGASA).  Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China, sends me
  each month tracks obtained from warnings issued by the National
  Meteorological Center of China (NMCC), the Central Weather Bureau
  of Taiwan (CWBT) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).    A very
  special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for the assistance they so
  reliably provide.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Depression                                 05 - 07 Oct
   Tropical Depression (18W)                           06 - 10 Oct
   Tropical Depression (19W)                           12 - 13 Oct
   Typhoon KETSANA (20W / 0317 / TISOY)                17 - 29 Oct
   Super Typhoon PARMA (21W / 0318)                    20 Oct - 02 Nov
   Tropical Depression (22W / URSULA)                  22 - 24 Oct
   Typhoon MELOR (24W / 0319 / VIRING)                 30 Oct - 05 Nov

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 05 0000  16.0 N  125.0 E  1008         25  JMA Bulletins
03 OCT 05 0600  17.0 N  119.0 E  1006         25
03 OCT 05 1200  20.0 N  122.0 E  1008         25
03 OCT 05 1800  20.8 N  122.4 E  1008         30  CWBT: 20.8 N, 121.7 E
03 OCT 06 0000  21.4 N  122.4 E  1008         30  CWBT: 21.0 N, 121.0 E
03 OCT 06 0600  21.8 N  122.0 E  1008         30  CWBT: 21.0 N, 120.5 E
03 OCT 06 1200  21.0 N  121.0 E  1002         25  CWBT Bulletins
03 OCT 06 1800  21.5 N  121.0 E  1002         25
03 OCT 07 0000  21.5 N  122.0 E  1002         25

Note: To my knowledge JMA and CWBT were the only warning agencies calling
this system a tropical depression.  CWBT issued bulletins on the system
from 05/1800 UTC until 07/0600 UTC, when it was downgraded back to a
low-pressure area.  There were no wind estimations for the system from
this agency, but since the depression was never considered a likely
candidate for tropical storm formation, the MSW in the CWBT bulletins
has been set to 25 kts.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 18W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 06 0600  18.1 N  117.1 E  1008         30  JMA Warnings
03 OCT 06 1200  18.3 N  117.4 E  1006         30       "
03 OCT 06 1800  18.0 N  116.7 E  1006   25    30
03 OCT 07 0000  17.7 N  115.6 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 17.4 N, 116.6 E
03 OCT 07 0600  17.3 N  115.1 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 17.4 N, 116.1 E
03 OCT 07 1200  16.9 N  114.8 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 17.9 N, 116.0 E
03 OCT 07 1800  16.9 N  114.8 E  1006   25    30  JMA: 18.2 N, 115.9 E
03 OCT 08 0000  17.6 N  115.5 E  1006   25    30
03 OCT 08 0600  17.8 N  115.3 E  1006   25    30
03 OCT 08 1200  18.0 N  115.1 E  1008   25    30
03 OCT 08 1800  18.2 N  115.4 E  1006   25    30  JMA: 17.2 N, 115.8 E
03 OCT 09 0000  18.4 N  115.1 E  1006   25    30
03 OCT 09 0600  19.1 N  115.2 E  1006   25    30  GRMC: 17.9 N, 114.9 E
03 OCT 09 1200  19.6 N  115.2 E  1006   25    30  GRMC: 18.1 N, 114.8 E
03 OCT 09 1800  19.9 N  115.3 E  1008   25    30
03 OCT 10 0000  19.8 N  115.0 E  1008   25    25  JMA: 19.0 N, 115.0 E
03 OCT 10 0600  20.2 N  114.6 E  1008   25    25  JMA: 19.0 N, 114.0 E

Note: GRMC stands for Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Centre (in
China).  Huang Chunliang has sent me a partial listing of this centre's
track and intensities, as well as the bulletins from the Central Weather
Bureau of Taiwan (CWBT).  Their 10-min avg MSW estimates are given in
the following table.  No warnings were issued by HKO, NMCC or PAGASA.

   Date   Time      Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
          (GMT)         GRMC               CWBT
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 06 1200                              25
03 OCT 06 1800                              25
03 OCT 07 0000                              25
03 OCT 07 0600                              25
03 OCT 07 1200           30                 25
03 OCT 07 1800                              25
03 OCT 08 0000           30                 25
03 OCT 08 0600           30                 25
03 OCT 08 1200           25                 25
03 OCT 08 1800                              25
03 OCT 09 0000           25                 25
03 OCT 09 0600           25                 25
03 OCT 09 1200           25                 25
03 OCT 09 1800                              25
03 OCT 10 0000                              25

Note #1: All of the bulletins from GRMC were not available, but these
were included to establish the fact that this agency did classify 18W
as a tropical depression.  The disturbance was upgraded to depression
status at 07/0900 UTC, and the final alert was issued at 10/0600 UTC.

Note #2: CWBT upgraded the system to depression status at 06/1200 UTC,
and downgraded it to a low-pressure area and issued the final bulletin
at 10/0600 UTC.  No explicit wind estimations were given.  If the
bulletin indicated that the depression was expected to intensity into
a tropical storm, Chunliang reported the MSW as 30 kts; otherwise as
25 kts.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 19W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 12 0000  30.1 N  129.9 E         25
03 OCT 12 0600  31.0 N  130.0 E         30
03 OCT 12 1200  32.1 N  131.5 E         30
03 OCT 12 1800  33.1 N  133.8 E         30
03 OCT 13 0000  34.0 N  135.8 E         25

Note: Apparently none of the Asian TCWCs regarded this LOW of subtropical
origin as a tropical depression.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: KETSANA               Cyclone Number: 20W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: TISOY       JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0317

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 17 0000  15.6 N  132.6 E  1004         30  PAGASA Warnings
03 OCT 17 0600  15.8 N  132.0 E  1004         30         "
03 OCT 17 1200  15.9 N  131.4 E  1004         30         "
03 OCT 17 1800  16.0 N  131.0 E  1004         30         "
03 OCT 18 0000  16.2 N  130.5 E  1004         30         "
03 OCT 18 0600  14.6 N  131.9 E  1000         30  PAGASA: 16.3 N, 129.9 E
03 OCT 18 1200  15.1 N  131.6 E  1000         30  PAGASA: 16.4 N, 129.4 E
03 OCT 18 1800  15.0 N  130.0 E  1000   30    30  PAGASA: 16.4 N, 129.3 E
03 OCT 19 0000  14.9 N  130.5 E   998   35    30  JMA: 16.4 N, 131.2 E
03 OCT 19 0600  15.3 N  130.1 E   994   40    35
03 OCT 19 1200  15.2 N  130.4 E   990   40    45
03 OCT 19 1800  15.8 N  130.5 E   985   45    50
03 OCT 20 0000  15.9 N  130.8 E   980   50    55
03 OCT 20 0600  15.7 N  130.8 E   970   55    65
03 OCT 20 1200  15.9 N  131.1 E   970   65    65
03 OCT 20 1800  16.2 N  131.0 E   965   80    70
03 OCT 21 0000  16.3 N  131.1 E   960   95    75
03 OCT 21 0600  16.6 N  131.2 E   945  120    85
03 OCT 21 1200  17.1 N  131.2 E   940  125    85
03 OCT 21 1800  17.2 N  131.2 E   940  125    85
03 OCT 22 0000  17.4 N  131.2 E   940  125    85
03 OCT 22 0600  17.7 N  131.2 E   940  125    85
03 OCT 22 1200  18.3 N  131.4 E   940  125    85
03 OCT 22 1800  18.6 N  131.7 E   940  115    85
03 OCT 23 0000  18.8 N  132.4 E   945  110    80
03 OCT 23 0600  19.0 N  132.5 E   940  105    85
03 OCT 23 1200  19.7 N  133.0 E   940  105    85
03 OCT 23 1800  20.0 N  133.3 E   940  100    85
03 OCT 24 0000  20.3 N  133.6 E   945  100    80
03 OCT 24 0600  21.0 N  133.7 E   945   90    80
03 OCT 24 1200  21.9 N  134.1 E   945   85    80
03 OCT 24 1800  23.0 N  135.1 E   945   85    80
03 OCT 25 0000  24.5 N  135.6 E   950   85    80
03 OCT 25 0600  25.9 N  137.2 E   955   80    75
03 OCT 25 1200  27.7 N  138.9 E   965   75    70
03 OCT 25 1800  29.2 N  141.7 E   975   70    60  JMA: 30.0 N, 142.0 E
03 OCT 26 0000  31.9 N  144.2 E   980   70    55
03 OCT 26 0600  34.4 N  147.7 E   985         50  JMA Bulletins
03 OCT 26 1200  36.0 N  150.0 E   990         50  Extratropical
03 OCT 26 1800  38.0 N  155.0 E   992         50
03 OCT 27 0000  41.0 N  159.0 E  1000         50
03 OCT 27 0600  45.0 N  162.0 E  1000         50
03 OCT 27 1200  47.0 N  166.0 E   996         50
03 OCT 27 1800  50.0 N  169.0 E   992         50
03 OCT 28 0000  52.0 N  172.0 E   990         50
03 OCT 28 0600  53.0 N  174.0 E   990         50
03 OCT 28 1200  54.0 N  175.0 E   990         50
03 OCT 28 1800  56.0 N  176.0 E   992         45
03 OCT 29 0000  58.0 N  175.0 E  1004         35

Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC and PAGASA are included
in the following table:

   Date   Time      Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
          (GMT)         NMCC            PAGASA
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          
03 OCT 17 0000                            30
03 OCT 17 0600                            30
03 OCT 17 1200                            30
03 OCT 17 1800                            30
03 OCT 18 0000                            30
03 OCT 18 0600                            30
03 OCT 18 1200                            30
03 OCT 18 1800                            30
03 OCT 19 0000                            35
03 OCT 19 0600           35               35
03 OCT 19 1200           35               35
03 OCT 19 1800           45               40
03 OCT 20 0000           55               50
03 OCT 20 0600           65               55
03 OCT 20 1200           65               65
03 OCT 20 1800           65               65
03 OCT 21 0000           70               75
03 OCT 21 0600           80               75
03 OCT 21 1200           90               75
03 OCT 21 1800           90               85
03 OCT 22 0000           90               85
03 OCT 22 0600          100               85
03 OCT 22 1200          100               85
03 OCT 22 1800          100               85
03 OCT 23 0000          100               85
03 OCT 23 0600          100               85
03 OCT 23 1200          100               85
03 OCT 23 1800          100               85
03 OCT 24 0000          100               80
03 OCT 24 0600          100               75
03 OCT 24 1200           90               75
03 OCT 24 1800           90
03 OCT 25 0000           80
03 OCT 25 0600           80
03 OCT 25 1200           70
03 OCT 25 1800           65
03 OCT 26 0000           55
03 OCT 26 0600           50
03 OCT 26 1200           45

Note #1: No warnings were issued on Ketsana by HKO as it remained
outside that agency's AOR.

Note #2: No local warnings were issued by CWBT.  This agency upgraded
the disturbance to depression status at 18/1200 UTC, to tropical storm
status at 19/0600 UTC, and issued the final bulletin at 26/1800 UTC,
declaring it extratropical.  The peak intensity estimated by CWBT was
84 kts (10-min avg).

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: PARMA                 Cyclone Number: 21W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0318

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 20 0600  19.7 N  143.2 E   998         30  JMA Warning
03 OCT 20 1200  20.4 N  142.9 E   998   25    30
03 OCT 20 1800  20.8 N  142.3 E   996   30    30  JMA: 20.9 N, 143.2 E
03 OCT 21 0000  21.1 N  142.7 E   994   35    35  JMA: 20.8 N, 143.9 E
03 OCT 21 0600  21.6 N  144.3 E   992   35    35
03 OCT 21 1200  22.2 N  145.4 E   990   45    40
03 OCT 21 1800  22.5 N  145.8 E   985   45    50
03 OCT 22 0000  22.6 N  146.3 E   980   50    55
03 OCT 22 0600  22.9 N  146.9 E   970   60    65
03 OCT 22 1200  23.5 N  147.3 E   970   65    65
03 OCT 22 1800  24.1 N  148.0 E   970   65    65
03 OCT 23 0000  24.6 N  148.9 E   960   80    70  NMCC: 24.4 N, 148.4 E
03 OCT 23 0600  26.2 N  149.8 E   950   90    80
03 OCT 23 1200  27.1 N  150.9 E   945  110    85
03 OCT 23 1800  28.2 N  152.3 E   935  105    90
03 OCT 24 0000  29.0 N  154.1 E   930  115    95
03 OCT 24 0600  30.1 N  156.3 E   930  125    95
03 OCT 24 1200  30.8 N  158.7 E   930  125    95
03 OCT 24 1800  30.8 N  161.9 E   930  130    95  JMA: 30.7 N, 161.4 E
03 OCT 25 0000  30.1 N  163.6 E   935  125    90
03 OCT 25 0600  28.8 N  165.5 E   935  120    90
03 OCT 25 1200  27.5 N  167.4 E   945  115    85
03 OCT 25 1800  26.4 N  168.5 E   955  105    75
03 OCT 26 0000  25.1 N  169.3 E   965   95    70  NMCC: 25.4 N, 169.7 E
03 OCT 26 0600  24.2 N  169.6 E   965   90    70
03 OCT 26 1200  22.7 N  168.5 E   970   80    65  JMA: 23.1 N, 168.9 E
03 OCT 26 1800  22.2 N  167.3 E   970   65    65  JMA: 22.9 N, 167.6 E
03 OCT 27 0000  22.2 N  165.8 E   975   65    60  JMA: 22.7 N, 166.0 E
03 OCT 27 0600  22.2 N  164.6 E   975   65    60
03 OCT 27 1200  22.1 N  162.9 E   975   75    60  NMCC: 21.7 N, 162.5 E
03 OCT 27 1800  22.1 N  160.4 E   970   75    65
03 OCT 28 0000  22.0 N  158.1 E   975   75    60
03 OCT 28 0600  21.8 N  156.3 E   975   75    60
03 OCT 28 1200  22.0 N  154.2 E   970   80    65
03 OCT 28 1800  22.6 N  152.1 E   965   85    70
03 OCT 29 0000  23.2 N  150.4 E   955   95    75
03 OCT 29 0600  23.7 N  149.5 E   945   95    80
03 OCT 29 1200  24.8 N  148.8 E   935  110    85
03 OCT 29 1800  25.7 N  149.2 E   935  115    85
03 OCT 30 0000  26.6 N  150.1 E   940  115    85
03 OCT 30 0600  27.8 N  151.5 E   945  100    80
03 OCT 30 1200  28.9 N  153.9 E   955   90    75
03 OCT 30 1800  29.7 N  156.7 E   965   85    75  JMA: 29.6 N, 157.4 E
03 OCT 31 0000  30.5 N  159.5 E   975   70    60
03 OCT 31 0600  31.4 N  163.1 E   980   55    55
03 OCT 31 1200  33.0 N  169.0 E   986         50  JMA Warning
03 OCT 31 1800  33.0 N  170.0 E   988         50
03 NOV 01 0000  34.0 N  173.0 E   988         50
03 NOV 01 0600  35.0 N  176.0 E   992         50
03 NOV 01 1200  35.0 N  179.0 E   992         50
03 NOV 02 0000  36.0 N  174.0 W   988         30  No data at 01/1800 UTC

Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC are given in the following
table:

   Date   Time      Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
          (GMT)         NMCC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 21 0000           35
03 OCT 21 0600           35
03 OCT 21 1200           35
03 OCT 21 1800           40
03 OCT 22 0000           45
03 OCT 22 0600           60
03 OCT 22 1200           65
03 OCT 22 1800           65
03 OCT 23 0000           65
03 OCT 23 0600           65
03 OCT 23 1200           80
03 OCT 23 1800           90
03 OCT 24 0000           90
03 OCT 24 0600           90
03 OCT 24 1200           90
03 OCT 24 1800           90
03 OCT 25 0000           90
03 OCT 25 0600           90
03 OCT 25 1200           70
03 OCT 25 1800           65
03 OCT 26 0000           65
03 OCT 26 0600           55
03 OCT 26 1200           55
03 OCT 26 1800           55
03 OCT 27 0000           55
03 OCT 27 0600           55
03 OCT 27 1200           55
03 OCT 27 1800           55
03 OCT 28 0000           65
03 OCT 28 0600           65
03 OCT 28 1200           65
03 OCT 28 1800           70
03 OCT 29 0000           80
03 OCT 29 0600           90
03 OCT 29 1200           90
03 OCT 29 1800           90
03 OCT 30 0000           90
03 OCT 30 0600           90
03 OCT 30 1200           80
03 OCT 30 1800           70
03 OCT 31 0000           60
03 OCT 31 0600           50
03 OCT 31 1200           40

Note #1: No warnings were issued by HKO or PAGASA since Parma remained
outside their respective AORs.

Note #2: CWBT did not issue any local warnings on Parma.  This agency
upgraded the disturbance to depression status at 20/0600 UTC, to
tropical storm status at 21/0600 UTC, and issued the final bulletin
at 31/1800 UTC, declaring it extratropical.  The peak intensity for
Parma estimated by CWBT was 93 kts (10-min avg).

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 22W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: URSULA      JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 22 0600  11.8 N  115.2 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 12.0 N, 114.5 E
03 OCT 22 1200  11.8 N  115.4 E  1006   25    30  JMA: 11.6 N, 116.5 E
03 OCT 22 1800  11.9 N  116.8 E  1004   25    30 
03 OCT 23 0000  11.0 N  118.5 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 11.9 N, 117.0 E
03 OCT 23 0600  10.9 N  119.4 E  1004   25    30  JMA: 11.5 N, 117.5 E
03 OCT 23 1200  11.0 N  120.6 E  1008   25    30  JMA: 10.7 N, 119.1 E
03 OCT 23 1800  10.8 N  122.2 E  1004   20    30
03 OCT 24 0000  10.0 N  122.5 E               25  PAGASA Warning

Note: The PAGASA track and intensities are included below.  No other
agency besides JTWC, JMA and PAGASA issued bulletins on this system
as a tropical depression.

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW
          (GMT)                 Press 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 23 0000  11.8 N  117.0 E  1004   30
03 OCT 23 0600  11.7 N  118.0 E  1004   30
03 OCT 23 1200  11.5 N  118.5 E  1004   30
03 OCT 23 1800  11.5 N  120.0 E  1004   30
03 OCT 24 0000  10.0 N  122.5 E         25 

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: MELOR                 Cyclone Number: 24W     Basin: NWP
PAGASA Internal Name: VIRING      JMA Tropical Storm Number: 0319

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 30 0000  12.6 N  129.7 E  1002         30  JMA Warning
03 OCT 30 0600  12.9 N  128.8 E  1000   25    30  PAGASA: 12.9 N, 130.4 E
03 OCT 30 1200  13.3 N  127.8 E   996   35    35
03 OCT 30 1800  14.0 N  126.8 E   996   35    35  PAGASA: 13.7 N, 127.5 E
03 OCT 31 0000  14.6 N  126.1 E   990   45    45
03 OCT 31 0600  15.3 N  124.8 E   980   50    55
03 OCT 31 1200  15.8 N  123.8 E   980   65    55
03 OCT 31 1800  16.3 N  122.9 E   975   65    60
03 NOV 01 0000  16.8 N  122.4 E   980   70    50  Near Luzon coast
03 NOV 01 0600  17.2 N  122.0 E   985   75    50  Inland in NE Luzon
03 NOV 01 1200  18.6 N  121.0 E   996   70    40  On north Luzon coast
03 NOV 01 1800  19.5 N  120.8 E   992   65    45
03 NOV 02 0000  20.2 N  120.6 E   990   60    45
03 NOV 02 0600  20.7 N  120.5 E   990   60    45
03 NOV 02 1200  21.3 N  120.6 E   990   60    40
03 NOV 02 1800  22.0 N  121.2 E   992   55    35  Just E of S Taiwan
03 NOV 03 0000  22.7 N  121.7 E   992   45    35  JMA: 22.8 N, 122.5 E
03 NOV 03 0600  23.1 N  122.9 E   996   45    35
03 NOV 03 1200  23.7 N  123.3 E   994   45    40
03 NOV 03 1800  24.0 N  124.6 E   996   45    40
03 NOV 04 0000  23.9 N  123.9 E  1004   35    30  JMA: 23.0 N, 124.0 E
03 NOV 04 0300  24.1 N  123.7 E  1002         27  HKO Warning
03 NOV 04 0600  23.0 N  123.0 E  1006         25  JMA Bulletins
03 NOV 04 1200  24.0 N  123.0 E  1008         25
03 NOV 04 1800  26.0 N  123.0 E  1008         25
03 NOV 05 1200  30.0 N  127.0 E  1012         20  No data at 0000 & 0600Z
03 NOV 05 1800  30.0 N  128.0 E  1012         20

Note: The 10-min avg MSW estimates from NMCC, PAGASA, HKO and CWBT are
given in the following table:

   Date   Time      Estimated 10-min avg MSW in kts
          (GMT)     NMCC     PAGASA    HKO     CWBT
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 30 0600                 25
03 OCT 30 1200                 30
03 OCT 30 1800       35        35
03 OCT 31 0000       35        45
03 OCT 31 0600       45        50       40
03 OCT 31 1200       55        55       55
03 OCT 31 1800       55        60       55
03 NOV 01 0000       60        60       55
03 NOV 01 0600       60        45       55
03 NOV 01 1200       60        45       50
03 NOV 01 1800       60        45       50
03 NOV 02 0000       55        50       50      45
03 NOV 02 0600       55        50       50      45
03 NOV 02 1200       55        50       50      50
03 NOV 02 1800       55        40       45      50
03 NOV 03 0000       50        40       40      50
03 NOV 03 0600       35        40       35      35
03 NOV 03 1200       35        40       35      35
03 NOV 03 1800       35        40       30
03 NOV 04 0000       30        30       27
                                       
Note #1: HKO upgraded the low-pressure area to depression status at
30/1200 UTC, then further to tropical storm status six hour later.
However, the first HKO warning didn't appear until 31/0600 UTC, when
Melor entered their AOR.  The final warning was released at 04/0600
UTC, downgrading Melor to a low-pressure area.

Note #2: CWBT issued 15 local warnings on Melor (at 3-hourly intervals),
the first being issued at 2100 UTC on 1 November.  This agency upgraded
the disturbance to depression status at 30/0600 UTC, and to tropical
storm status six hours later.  The final local warning was issued at
03/1500 UTC when Melor no longer posed a threat to Taiwan.  The system
was downgraded back to depression status at 04/0000 UTC, then further
to a low-pressure area six hours later.  The peak intensity for Melor
as estimated by CWBT was 58 kts (10-min avg).

*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

                        Sources of Information
                        ----------------------

     The track coordinates and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
  values in general were taken from operational warnings issued by the
  Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy,
  located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.   Occasionally some information may
  have been gleaned from the daily tropical weather outlooks and other
  bulletins issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which
  is the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Specialised Meteor-
  ological Centre for the basin.
 
     The reported maximum sustained winds are based on a 1-minute
  averaging period, which is used by all U. S. civilian and military
  weather services for tropical cyclone warnings.     For synoptic
  observations in the North Indian Ocean region, both 10-minute and
  3-minute average winds are employed, but IMD makes no attempt to
  modify the Dvorak scale for estimating tropical cyclone intensity;
  hence, a 1-minute average MSW is implied.

     Huang Chunliang sent me tracks for TC-23W which he'd compiled
  based on warnings from the India Meteorological Department and the
  Thai Meteorological Department; also, for another system treated as
  a depression by India.  A special thanks to Chunliang for sending
  me the information.


                            Systems Tracked
                            ---------------

   Tropical Depression                                 06 - 08 Oct
   Tropical Cyclone (23W)                              22 - 28 Oct

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: None    Basin: NIO


   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 06 0300  16.5 N   84.0 E         25
03 OCT 06 1200  17.5 N   84.0 E         25
03 OCT 06 1800  18.0 N   84.0 E         25
03 OCT 07 0300  19.0 N   83.0 E         25        Inland--See Note
03 OCT 08 0300  21.0 N   82.5 E         25

Note: The above track was prepared by Huang Chunliang from bulletins
available on IMD's website.  This system was not classified as a tropical
depression by JTWC.  IMD upgraded the LOW to a depression at 06/0300 UTC
and downgraded it back to a low-pressure area at 09/0300 UTC.  No winds
was specified, but based upon its classification as a depression (as
opposed to a deep depression), the MSW was set to 25 kts.  The depression
made landfall near Kalingapatnam around 06/2130 UTC.

*************************************************************************

Storm Name: None                  Cyclone Number: 23W     Basin: NWP/NIO
PAGASA Internal Name: None        JMA Tropical Storm Number: None

   Date   Time   Lat      Lon    Cent  MSW   MSW        Remarks
          (GMT)                 Press 1-min 10-min
                                 (mb) (kts) (kts)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

03 OCT 22 0600  10.2 N  101.0 E  1008         28  See Note
03 OCT 22 1200  10.2 N  101.0 E  1008         28
03 OCT 22 1800  10.2 N  101.0 E  1008         28
03 OCT 23 0000  10.2 N  101.0 E  1008         28
03 OCT 23 0600  10.2 N  101.5 E  1008   25    28
03 OCT 23 1200  10.4 N  101.4 E  1006   25    30  TMD: 11.5 N, 100.5 E
03 OCT 23 1800  11.1 N  101.2 E  1006   25    30  TMD: 11.8 N, 100.5 E
03 OCT 24 0000  11.2 N  101.0 E  1008   25    30  TMD: 11.9 N, 100.4 E
03 OCT 24 0600  11.4 N  100.7 E  1008   25    27  TMD: 12.0 N, 100.3 E
03 OCT 24 1200  12.0 N  100.2 E  1009   25    27  TMD: 12.5 N,  98.8 E
03 OCT 24 1800  12.6 N   99.6 E         25    
03 OCT 25 0600  12.5 N   97.4 E         25    
03 OCT 25 1800  13.1 N   95.2 E         25
03 OCT 26 0600  13.4 N   93.7 E         25
03 OCT 26 1800  13.6 N   91.4 E         30
03 OCT 27 0300  14.0 N   90.5 E         30        IMD Bulletin
03 OCT 27 0600  14.6 N   88.9 E         35        IMD-12Z: 14.5 N, 89.0 E
03 OCT 27 1800  16.9 N   86.2 E         35        IMD: 15.5 N, 87.5 E
03 OCT 28 0000  17.2 N   86.0 E  1008         30  TMD Bulletin
03 OCT 28 0600  18.2 N   84.0 E  1008   30    30  TMD: 17.5 N, 84.8 E

Note: Portions of this track are based on bulletins from the
Meteorological Departments of India (IMD) and Thailand (TMD),
respectively.  The IMD and TMD tracks were sent by Huang Chunliang.
TMD upgraded the LPC (low-pressure cell) to tropical depression status
initially at 22/0600 UTC, then downgraded it back to a LPC at 1800 UTC
on 24 October.  It was re-upgraded to tropical depression status at
28/0000 UTC, but again downgraded to a LPC at 1200 UTC since the
center had moved inland.   It isn't completely certain if TMD uses
a 1-minute or 10-minute averaging period, but it seems best to consider
their MSW estimates as being 10-minute averages.   IMD upgraded the
LOW to depression status at 26/1200 UTC, and further to deep depression
status, which implies 30-kt winds (1-min avg), at 27/0300 UTC.  IMD's
final bulletin was issued at 28/1200 UTC, noting that the deep
depression had crossed coastal Andhra Pradesh between Vishakatnam
and Kalingapatnam around 0900 UTC on 28 October and rapidly weakened
into a low-pressure area.

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             !!!!!!  IMPORTANT NOTE - PLEASE READ  !!!!!!

     To repeat the caveat which is included in the Author's Note
  at the end of the cyclone summaries--the tropical cyclone tracks
  I prepare are based upon the operational warnings/advisories/
  advices/bulletins which are issued by the various tropical cyclone
  warning agencies around the world.   Users of these tracks should
  be aware that they are preliminary and subject to revision during
  post-seasonal analyses of the cyclones by the forecasters and
  analysts at the several warning centers.

     For the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, official tropical
  cyclone reports and "best tracks" can be found at the website of
  the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center:

     http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>

     The Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website contains links to their
  Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports which include that agency's "best
  tracks" for tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific basin, the
  North Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere:

     http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>


  SPECIAL NOTE:  Back issues of the global tropical cyclone summaries
  and monthly cyclone track files can be obtained at the following
  websites:

    ftp:// ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
    http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
    http://mpittweather.com>


  PREPARED BY:

  Gary Padgett              [email protected]


  SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTIONS BY:

  Michael V. Padua          [email protected] 
                            [email protected]

  Huang Chunliang           [email protected]

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Document: trak0310.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006

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