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Tropical Cyclone MONTY
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]
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[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone MONTY [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] |
WTXS21 PGTW 20040227 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 270151Z FEB 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0S0 121.4E8 TO 19.7S7
117.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 262330Z6 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULA�
TION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3 120.8E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.5S5 120.3E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3 120.8E1, APPROXIMATELY
140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. EARLY MULTI-
SPECTRAL AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OFF LAND AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC HAS INCREASED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 280200Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZFEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 19.4S4 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.6S6 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.8S8 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.9S9 116.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.2S4 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 119.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC HAS INCREASED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A FAVORBABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 08 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
270151ZFEB2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
270200) NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040227 21:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 19.3S3 118.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 118.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.5S5 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.9S9 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.4S6 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 21.2S5 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 118.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. A RECENT PORT
HEDLAND RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT TC 14S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING
TO FORM. A RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT BEDOUT ISLAND REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 33 KNOTS AND A MSL OF 993.7 MB. ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. THIS WARNING HAS BEEN
AMENDED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
FORECASTED INTENSITIES. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
CAUSING TC 14S TO TURN MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS. ALL
OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW THAT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE WITH VARYING DEGREES OF OUTFLOW SUPPORTING CONTINUED
INTENSFICATION AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGGR, NCEP GFS AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040228 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 118.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 118.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.3S3 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.5S5 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.0S2 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 20.9S1 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 22.7S1 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 118.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 272330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 AND 75 KNOTS. A RECENT 272207Z0 ADVANCED MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS A PROBABLE 15 NM DIAMETER EYE. A 272100Z2 SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATION AT BEDOUT ISLAND ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 41 KNOTS AND A MSL OF 991.4 MB.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS. TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING TC 14S TO TURN MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS THE
WEAKNESS. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW THAT WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE WITH VARYING DEGREES OF OUTFLOW SUPPORTING
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS AND
TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9,
281500Z6, 282100Z3 AND 290300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 19.3S3 117.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 117.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.4S4 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.9S9 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.7S9 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 21.8S1 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 25.0S7 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 117.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN
POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MID-PERIOD AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6, 282100Z3, 290300Z4
AND 290900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040228 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 19.3S3 117.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 117.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.6S6 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.5S7 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 21.5S8 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 23.1S6 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 27.0S9 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 116.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BANDING EYE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS 14S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MID-PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3,
290300Z4, 290900Z0 AND 291500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 19.3S3 116.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 116.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.7S7 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.5S7 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 21.8S1 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 23.2S7 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 27.2S1 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 116.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS SUPPORTING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 14S IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MID-PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 AND 292100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 19.2S2 116.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 116.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 19.7S7 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 20.6S8 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 22.0S4 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 23.5S0 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 28.0S0 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 116.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
282330Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. A RECENT 282355Z5
SSMI PASS REVEALED A SYMMETRICAL 15 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYING THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD EARLY
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO
TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MID-PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0, 291500Z7, 292100Z4 AND 010300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 115.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 115.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.1S3 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 21.3S6 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 22.8S2 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 24.9S5 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 290530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 15 NM EYE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND TRACK OVER LAND.
TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND
TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7, 292100Z4,
010300Z4 AND 010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040229 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 19.8S8 115.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 115.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 20.8S0 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 22.2S6 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 23.8S3 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 26.1S9 118.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. A 291102Z5 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTS A 9 NM EYE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO ATTAIN PEAK
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR,
NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z4, 010300Z4, 010900Z0 AND 011500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040229 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 20.1S3 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 21.3S6 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 22.7S1 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 24.6S2 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 27.1S0 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 115.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14S IS MAKING ITS TURN POLEWARD
TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. A 291800Z0 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT
BARROW ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 37 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 47 KNOTS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 995.2 MB AND FALLING.
TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST AFTER THE 12 HOUR TAU AND
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4, 010900Z0, 011500Z7 AND
012100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040301 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 20.5S7 115.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 115.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 21.6S9 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 22.9S3 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 24.8S4 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 115.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 292330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TC 14S IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BARROW
ISLAND AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. A 010100Z2 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION
AT VARANUS ISLAND NEAR 20.65S3 115.6E3 REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 63 KNOTS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS, WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP
GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0,
011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 012 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040301 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 21.4S7 115.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 115.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 22.6S0 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 24.0S6 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 26.0S8 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 115.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 011130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR MARDIE, AUSTRALIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A RAIN
BAND EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, AND
TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5,
020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040301 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 21.7S0 115.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 115.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 22.6S0 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 24.0S6 116.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
TC 14S HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR MARDIE, AUSTRALIA. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14S HAS DIMINISHED AND THE
SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
NEXT WARNING AT 020300Z5.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040302 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 22.0S4 116.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 116.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.8S2 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 23.5S0 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 116.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14S HAS DIMINISHED AND THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15P (EVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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Document: monty.html
Updated: 13th March, 2004 |
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