Tropical Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclone JANA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean] 
WTXS21 PGTW 20031206 23:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 062321ZDEC2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4S1 93.1E3 TO 9.6S5 97.6E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062030Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S9 93.8E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 8.0S8 93.1E3 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.1S9 93.8E0, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON CONTINUED INCREASED CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072330Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062321ZDEC2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 7.6S3 95.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6S3 95.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 7.7S4 97.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 8.6S4 97.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 10.1S2 97.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 11.7S9 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 7.6S3 95.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND AN UNFLAGGED QUIKSCAT REPORT OF
30 AND 40 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL THAT DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. TC 04S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INITIALLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS IT
DEEPENS AND BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF ONLY NCEP GFS
AND WBAI ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 8 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 062321Z DEC 2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
062330). NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031207 15:00z  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 002  
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE  
---  
WARNING POSITION:  
071200Z0 --- NEAR 7.8S5 96.6E1  
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS  
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM  
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE  
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
REPEAT POSIT: 7.8S5 96.6E1  
---  
FORECASTS:  
12 HRS, VALID AT:  
080000Z8 --- 7.9S6 97.2E8  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS  
---  
24 HRS, VALID AT:  
081200Z1 --- 8.5S3 97.6E2  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS  
---  
36 HRS, VALID AT:  
090000Z9 --- 9.4S3 97.7E3  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS  
---  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  
48 HRS, VALID AT:  
091200Z2 --- 10.4S5 97.5E1  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM  
---  
REMARKS:  
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 7.8S5 96.7E2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE  
HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 11 FEET.  
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.  
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)  
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.  
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031208 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 8.2S0 97.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S0 97.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 8.8S6 97.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 9.9S8 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 11.2S4 97.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 12.6S9 97.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.4S2 97.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (JANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 04S HAS NOW
INTENSIFIED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES
EVIDENT IN THE DATA. TC 04S CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE BOTH EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO NOW TRACK MORE POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS,
NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN AND WBAI ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER, NOGAPS RECURVES TC 04S MUCH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS DUE
TO A FORECASTED STRONGER STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
03S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031208 15:00z  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 004  
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE  
---  
WARNING POSITION:  
081200Z1 --- NEAR 8.6S4 98.3E0  
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS  
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM  
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE  
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 98.3E0  
---  
FORECASTS:  
12 HRS, VALID AT:  
090000Z9 --- 9.7S6 98.5E2  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS  
---  
24 HRS, VALID AT:  
091200Z2 --- 10.9S0 98.6E3  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM  
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS  
---  
36 HRS, VALID AT:  
100000Z1 --- 12.0S3 98.4E1  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM  
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS  
---  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  
48 HRS, VALID AT:  
101200Z4 --- 13.2S6 98.1E8  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM  
---  
REMARKS:  
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 8.9S7 98.3E0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE  
HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14 FEET.  
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.  
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)  
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.  
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031209 03:00z  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 005  
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE  
---  
WARNING POSITION:  
090000Z9 --- NEAR 10.1S2 99.1E9  
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS  
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM  
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE  
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 99.1E9  
---  
FORECASTS:  
12 HRS, VALID AT:  
091200Z2 --- 11.6S8 99.2E0  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS  
---  
24 HRS, VALID AT:  
100000Z1 --- 12.9S2 99.1E9  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM  
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS  
---  
36 HRS, VALID AT:  
101200Z4 --- 14.0S5 98.8E5  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM  
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS  
---  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  
48 HRS, VALID AT:  
110000Z2 --- 14.9S4 98.0E7  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM  
---  
REMARKS:  
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 99.1E9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE  
HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 18 FEET.  
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.  
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)  
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.  
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031209 15:00z  
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 006  
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE  
---  
WARNING POSITION:  
091200Z2 --- NEAR 12.0S3 99.3E1  
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS  
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM  
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE  
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 99.3E1  
---  
FORECASTS:  
12 HRS, VALID AT:  
100000Z1 --- 13.5S9 99.4E2  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS  
---  
24 HRS, VALID AT:  
101200Z4 --- 14.5S0 99.5E3  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS  
---  
36 HRS, VALID AT:  
110000Z2 --- 15.4S0 99.2E0  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS  
---  
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:  
48 HRS, VALID AT:  
111200Z5 --- 16.0S7 98.2E9  
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT  
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM  
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT  
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT  
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT  
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT  
---  
REMARKS:  
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 99.3E1.  
 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 18 FEET.  
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.  
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)  
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.  
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031210 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- NEAR 13.9S3 99.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 99.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 14.8S3 99.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 15.4S0 98.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 15.9S5 98.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 16.3S0 97.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 099.3E1.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (JANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE EARLY INDICATIONS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A DECREASE IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO
START WEAKENING SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DECREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TRACK POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN START RECURVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING
INFLUENCE IS SHIFTED FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, NOGAPS, EGRR AND JGSM ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 98.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 98.5E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 15.6S2 97.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 16.0S7 96.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 16.2S9 95.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 16.4S1 93.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 98.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (JANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101005Z7 TRMM PASS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
THE TRMM PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NORTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT STAYS IN AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND DECREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT FROM THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM TO THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, NCEP GFS,
TLAPS, TCLAPS, NOGAPS, EGRR, AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z5 AND 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNINGS ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031211 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 14.9S4 97.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 97.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 15.1S7 96.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 15.3S9 94.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 15.5S1 92.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 15.8S4 90.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 97.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (JANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 04S HAS NOW BECOME FULLY
EXPOSED WITH THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO NOW
TRACK MORE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR, LINEAR TO CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT, AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, TCLAPS, TLAPS AND WBAI
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031211 15:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 14.9S4 95.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 95.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 14.9S4 94.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 14.9S4 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 15.0S6 90.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 95.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (JANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, TCLAPS, TLAPS AND WBAR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND
121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20031212 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 14.9S4 94.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 94.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 14.9S4 92.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 93.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (JANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION NO LONGER EXISTS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, TCLAPS,
TLAPS, AND WBAI ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Document: jana.html
Updated: 3rd November, 2004
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