Tropical Cyclones [Index]

Tropical Cyclone FRITZ [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean]

WTPS21 PGTW 20040210 17:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5S9 146.2E3 TO 14.4S9
142.7E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 101521Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 145.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTH
WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
147.1E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 145.6E6, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT STEWART, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING AND A RAPID
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 111700Z0.//
4. RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040212 00:00z
RMKS/
1.TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FRITZ) WARNING NR 001
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 140.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 140.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 17.2S0 138.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 17.5S3 136.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 139.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FRITZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, HAS
MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A GOOD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SYNOPTIC WIND REPORTS
ARE LOWER THAN THE SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND SHEAR IS MINIMAL. TC 12P
HAS TIME AND THE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040212 15:00z
RMKS/
1.TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FRITZ) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 17.3S1 137.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 137.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 18.0S9 134.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 18.7S6 133.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 136.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FRITZ), HAS MADE LANDFALL ON
AUSTRALIA AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 121130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND CONFIRMS THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. ALTERNATE JTWC, FNMOC,
MONTEREY, CA (DSN 878-4503).//