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Tropical Cyclone TATIANA : JTWC Advisories
Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone TATIANA Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20160210 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 154.2E TO 17.3S 158.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S 154.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.3S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 154.5E, APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 092313Z AMSU IMAGE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIGHT-
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160210 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//REF/A/JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100121Z FEB 16//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 156.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 156.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 17.3S 157.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.4S 158.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 19.6S 159.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.9S 160.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 23.7S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 25.2S 162.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 26.2S 164.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 156.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 603 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED SATTELITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CONFIRMED BY A 101716Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 101144Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS THE LLCC
WITH 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY SUPPORTING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AND POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS AN INDUCED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
RIDGE POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 11P AND TC 12P WHICH WILL GUIDE 12P
SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TRACK. AFTER
36 HOURS, MODEL GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE RIDGE BETWEEN
TC 11P AND TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND INTERACTION
WITH TC 12P IS POSSIBLE GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100130).
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 002    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 157.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 157.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 17.3S 159.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 18.3S 160.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 19.7S 161.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 21.1S 161.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 24.1S 162.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 158.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA), 
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 559 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BEING CONFINED TO THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 110551Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS 
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS AND A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, 
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 
KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, 
AND MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE PRIMARY 
STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 12P IS CURRENTLY A WEAKENING INDUCED RIDGE 
POSITIONED BETWEEN TC 11P (WINSTON) AND TC TATIANA, WHICH IS 
ALLOWING TC TATIANA TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 24 
THIS INDUCED RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE AND THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM 
WILL BECOME THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, 
TURNING TC TATIANA SOUTHWARD. TC TATIANA REMAINS IN A REGION OF HIGH 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, ALLOWING FOR A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE FOR THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS, COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY 
UNFAVORABLE SSTS, WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC TATIANA BEFORE THE 
SYSTEM BECOMES COMPLETELY ABSORBED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY 
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 
HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, MODEL GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS TC 
TATIANA INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GIVING MODERATE 
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
110600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 159.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 159.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 18.2S 160.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 19.9S 161.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 21.7S 161.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 23.5S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 25.8S 161.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 159.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TATIANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRIC COLD DENSE OVERCAST
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111703Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY SPIRALED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDS OF
CONVECTION GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TATIANA IS AN
INDUCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST WHICH IS FORECASTED
TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD. EXHAUST FROM TC WINSTON POSITIONED
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM TO THE EAST IS PREVENTING TC TATIANA FROM
DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND WILL LIMIT INTENSITY
DEVELOPMENT TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AS TC TATIANA TRAVELS SOUTH
BEYOND TAU 24, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING EXHAUST PROVIDED FROM TC WINSTON AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
GIVING RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 159.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 159.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 19.6S 160.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 21.4S 160.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 23.4S 159.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 25.1S 159.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 159.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
COLD DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 120404Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY NORTH-SOUTH
ELONGATED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0 AND T4.0.  UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC TATIANA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO A MORE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT,
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-30 KNOTS AND IS
INCREASINGLY BEING CHOKED BY EXHAUST FROM TC WINSTON, LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC TATIANA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL COMPLETELY ENVELOP TC
TATIANA BY TAU 48. AS TC TATIANA TRAVELS SOUTH BEYOND TAU 24, VWS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WILL LOWER
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, RESULTING IN RAPID DISSIPATION AFTER TAU
36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
GIVING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 160.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 160.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 22.2S 159.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 24.3S 159.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 26.1S 158.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 160.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANHCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF TC 12P HAS STARTED
TO IMPACT THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. HIGH LEVELS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE INTENSITY. DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COORDINATION WITH VWS WILL LEAD TO THE
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF TC 12P AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 160.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 160.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 23.7S 160.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 25.2S 159.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 25.7S 159.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 25.0S 159.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TATIANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. HOWEVER, A 130352Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED,
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, A
122306Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS NUMEROUS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC TATIANA IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE STR TO THE EAST IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD
OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND THE CORAL SEA. THIS WILL SERVE TO SLOW
THE TRACK MOTION INITIALLY, THEN PRODUCE AN EQUATORWARD TRACK MOTION
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS RAPIDLY. TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER
STRONG VWS AND DECREASING SSTS, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
DEGREE OF THE EQUATORWARD TRACK MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20160213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 007 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TATIANA) WARNING NR 007 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 25.5S 159.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 159.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 159.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TATIANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SWATH OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
QUICKLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WITH A WEAK AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION TRAILING BEHIND. THE LATEST CIMMS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) PRODUCT INDICATES TC 12P IS IN AN AREA OF VERY HIGH (50 KNOT)
VWS, RESULTING IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. A REVIEW OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS INDICATES THAT TC 12P HAD
SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MULTIPLE
AGENCY FIXES AND SUPPORTED BY A 131639Z SSIMS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH WEAK
BANDING SURROUNDING AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CENTER. THE INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH PARTIALLY TAKES INTO ACCOUNT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE
LLCC IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS STEERING TRANSITIONS TO THE
LARGE-SCALE LOW LEVEL FLOW, AFTER WHICH THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK OFF
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED
INITIAL POSITION OF TC 12P BASED ON NEWLY AVAILABLE SSMIS MICROWAVE
DATA.

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_tatiana_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017