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Tropical Cyclone 201602 : JTWC Advisories
Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone 201602 Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20151014 19:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 12.3S 175.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 175.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S
175.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY 341 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEPENING SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS SEEN IN A 141021Z ASCAT BULLSEYE. A
141617Z MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WELL DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WITH THE
BULK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151930Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151015 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141921 OCT 15//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 177.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 177.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 12.4S 176.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 13.2S 175.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 14.4S 172.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 16.5S 170.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 177.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM NORTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PERSISTENT BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED
LLCC THAT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A 151604Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS THE
TIGHTLY WRAPPED, COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 151309 RSCAT PASS
INDICATES 30-35 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM CENTER WHILE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES REMAIN AT 2.0.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RSCAT IMAGE
AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND HEDGED ON THE
HIGHER END. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 02P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS AS VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTER THAT TC
02P WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS
ALONG TRACK. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RECENT QS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM THERE IS
CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN 141921 OCT 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
141930).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151016 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 177.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 177.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 14.3S 175.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 16.1S 173.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.2S 171.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.3S 170.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 176.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH WESTERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC. A 160616Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGES RELAYS THIS CONVECTION
AND IMPROVES OVER ALL POSITION CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 20 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR EXTENSION AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST UNDER ITS INFLUENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK. TC 02P HAS A 24 HOUR WINDOW IN WHICH SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN-PHASE WITH VWS. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU
24, VWS WILL INCREASE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
ALTERNATIVELY, THE SYSTEM MAY DECAY BEFORE THAT PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK WHICH LEADS
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND
170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151016 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 175.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 175.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 16.0S 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.2S 171.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.6S 170.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 174.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PULSING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED AND COMPACT
LLCC. A 161757Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THE TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE LLCC
AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 161023Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 35-45 KT WIND
BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE RANGE FROM 2.0-2.5, RESPECTIVELY. THE
INITIAL POSITIONS OF THE STORM IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS AND FIXES AND HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END AT 40 KTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS, HOWEVER INCREASING VWS
THEREAFTER WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 36
HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151017 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 173.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 173.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.5S 171.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 20.8S 170.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 172.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 170316Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 35
KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE CURRENT WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE SEEN IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY. TC 02P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. TC
02P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGH VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20151017 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 171.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 171.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 21.8S 171.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 171.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD, EXPOSING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME UNRAVELED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 24 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES,
IS NOW BELOW THE JTWC WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_201602_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017