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Tropical Cyclone 201601 : JTWC Advisories
Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone 201601 Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20150802 08:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 171.4E TO 13.2S 174.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
020800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
171.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S
171.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 171.9E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING MOST OF THE LLCC. A
020318Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 011904Z RAPIDSCAT
IMAGE SHOWED EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, ENHANCED BY THE STRONG GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NEW ZEALAND. RAPIDSCAT
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKER, 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS, OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD
VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030830Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150802 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020821ZAUG2015//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 11.3S 173.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 173.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 11.6S 173.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 12.1S 173.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 12.5S 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 13.6S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 16.9S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 173.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH
DUE TO 20-25 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE EIR LOOP SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
A 021857Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY FROM THE EAST. THE BYU HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGE FROM A
021030Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 35 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUSTAINING THE
CURRENT CONVECTION; HOWEVER, THE VWS IS IMPINGING ON QUICKER
CONSOLIDATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 28 CELSIUS ARE
FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 01P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LAYERED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. A SECOND STR TO THE WEST WILL
REORIENT SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS CAUSING A
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCHANGED ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY REACHING A PEAK
OF 45 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 01P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
ACCELERATE POLEWARD INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 01P TO WEAKEN AND FULLY
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIMITED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SHAPE; HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVES. THIS SPREAD
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND
032100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 020821ZAUG2015 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 020830).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150803 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 172.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 172.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 11.3S 172.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 11.7S 172.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 12.4S 171.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 13.7S 171.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 16.4S 172.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 172.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND A 022138Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION
HAS BROADENED AS WELL; HOWEVER, GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 030734Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED
LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER, WHICH
ALONG WITH MSI SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND SLOW TRACK MOTION
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE VWS APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 28 CELSIUS ARE
FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KNOTS FOR THE TIME BEING ALTHOUGH LATER DATA MAY SUPPORT A LOWER
INTENSITY. TC 01P IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER A COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCE BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12
AS THE LOW-LEVEL STR SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, THE
STR WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTHWEST,
WHICH WILL CAUSE TC 01P TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED UNTIL AFTER
TAU 36 AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS WILL LEAD
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN
THE OVERALL TRACK SHAPE; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVES. THIS SPREAD LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20150803 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 172.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 172.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 11.4S 171.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 172.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 443 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DISPERSE
AS IT BEGAN TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
01P HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_201601_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017