WTXS21 PGTW 20150206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7S 41.2E TO 24.9S 43.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.4S 41.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0S
38.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 41.6E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE DEVELOPED
CIRCULATION AND BETTER CONVECTION, AS WELL AS SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT
BANDING, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS CONCEALED BY THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS SEEN IN THE 060429Z SSMIS, MID-LEVEL
TURNING IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE MSI. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER
060228Z ISS RSCAT SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF INTENSE (25 TO 30 KTS) WINDS
ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW (10
TO 15 KTS) ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE. THERE IS MODERATE (20 KTS)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW AND GOOD SSTS, LEADING TO AN OVERALL CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THIS
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060851Z FEB 15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 42.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 42.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.9S 43.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 25.2S 43.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 27.1S 44.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 29.1S 43.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 32.8S 40.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 35.6S 40.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 40.4S 48.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 43.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 061701Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE BANDING HAS
EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS STARTED TO
WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FUNDI
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LIMIT OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. TC 11S IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AS TC
FUNDI TRACKS POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MODERATELY FAVORABLE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 48 THE CYCLONE WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AT THIS POINT, TC FUNDI
WILL BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS AND
COOLER SSTS (BELOW 26C). BY TAU 72, TC 11S WILL START TO ROUND THE
STR AXIS AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). EXPECT THE
SYSTEM TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
LENDING TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND
072100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 060851Z FEB 15 (WTXS21 PGTW 060900)//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 23.5S 43.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S 43.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 25.0S 44.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 27.4S 44.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 30.2S 43.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 32.1S 41.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 34.0S 38.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 37.1S 41.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 43.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STRADDLING EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. A 070417Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 11S IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
DVORAK VALUES ARE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO THE LLCC PROXIMITY TO LAND;
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COASTLINE AND SATELLITE
CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 32 KNOTS. TC FUNDI IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.  MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALLOWING TC 11S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER TAU 24, THE
CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH.
CONCURRENTLY,  TC 11S WILL BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS AND  COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY
TAU 72, TC 11S WILL START TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).  TC 11S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 43.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 43.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 27.9S 43.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 30.7S 42.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 32.7S 41.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 34.1S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 34.8S 37.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 43.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC FUNDI HAS MOVED
JUST SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR PROVIDING INCREASED INFLOW AND REVIVED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 071648Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CURVED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
TC 11S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE WESTERLY (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND MULTI-
AGENCY FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON CONCURRING AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. TC 11S IS STILL TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THIS STR WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC FUNDI WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
AS IT REMAINS IN 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND MOVES AWAY
FROM LAND INTERACTION. BEYOND TAU 24 THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) AND
SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26C. TC FUNDI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48 AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 28.0S 43.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S 43.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 30.9S 43.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 33.0S 41.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 28.7S 43.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND 080650Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11S IS NOW
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TC 11S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC FUNDI WILL FURTHER TRACK INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE AREA OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINED EFFECT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, OR POSSIBLY
SOONER. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
082100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20150208 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FUNDI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 32.8S 44.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.8S 44.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 35.1S 42.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4S 43.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FUNDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATING AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH IS LEAVING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 11S HAS
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE 081634Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE
AND CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_fundi_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]