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Tropical Cyclone 201502 : JTWC Advisories
Season 2014-2015 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone 201502 Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20141128 05:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270721NOV2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 63.8E TO 16.9S 59.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 63.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
64.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 568 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY(MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280000Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE FORMATIVE BANDING
HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND INTO THE
DEFINED CENTER. AN OLDER ASCAT PASS 271748Z SHOWED 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAKER 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 290500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 61.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 61.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 17.1S 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 17.9S 59.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 18.6S 58.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 19.5S 57.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 22.2S 57.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 61.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281235Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED
TO THE WEST OF THE DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MODIFIED STR DUE TO A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 48,
HINDERING THE SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 280451Z NOV 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 60.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 60.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 19.5S 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 20.7S 60.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 21.7S 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 23.1S 60.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 28.2S 62.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 60.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH BROAD  BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A PARTIAL 282348Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONTINUED TO BE
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE IR LOOP AND SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS OFFSET
BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAU
48, HINDERING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, THE COMBINED
EFFECT OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DUE TO A PREVIOUS OVER-ESTIMATION OF THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STR. DUE TO A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20141129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 60.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 60.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 19.8S 59.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 60.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED POLEWARD OF THE
CENTER. A 291121Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A BROAD LLCC
WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 290124Z WINDSAT IMAGE
INDICATES ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 02S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD WHILE WEAKENING. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_201502_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017