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Tropical Cyclone DYLAN : JTWC Advisories
Season 2013-2014 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone DYLAN Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20140128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 154.0E TO 18.0S 149.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 153.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
154.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SLOWLY WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 282340Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 282340Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (20 TO 25 KNOT)
WINDS IN THE CORE.  UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (GREATER
THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IN THE CORAL SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR QUICK
DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE CURRENT ELONGATION, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251ZJAN2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 151.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 151.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.5S 150.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 17.3S 149.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 18.2S 148.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 19.4S 146.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 22.2S 143.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO DOMINANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. A 281946Z CORIOLIS IMAGE REVEALS THE WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AS WELL AS AN ELONGATED AND
SOMEWHAT LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAVE
SLOWLY BEGUN TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THE LLCC BRINGING 30-35 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER REPLACING THE PREVIOUSLY WEAKER CORE WINDS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR ANIMATION FROM
WILLIS ISLAND WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 281354Z OSCAT
PASS AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY WILLIS ISLAND. TC 11P IS
TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN
COAST BY TAU 48 AND DISSIPATING WELL INLAND BY TAU 72. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN CONTENT WILL AID THE SYSTEM IN REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT
SPLIT, BUT GENERALLY INDICATING A SOUTHWEST TRACK. DUE TO THE
LOOSLEY DEFINED LLCC AND SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE AIDS THE JTWC FORECAST
IS LAID CLOSE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z AND 300300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 280251Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 280300).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 150.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 150.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 17.6S 149.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 18.4S 148.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 19.5S 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 20.7S 145.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 149.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
291150Z METOP-B IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR INDICATES A MORE
DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND SHOW 10
TO 15 KNOT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 994 MB.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER CORE WINDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
SCATTEROMETER DATA. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 KNOTS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE RADAR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 11P
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 48.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN CONTENT WILL AID THE SYSTEM
IN REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, GENERALLY INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AND SPREAD IN OBJECTIVE
AIDS THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280251ZJAN2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.6S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.8S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.0S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z. 
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 148.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 148.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 20.0S 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 21.0S 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK THAT HAS ALREADY
STARTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF, AUSTRALIA, WHICH
SHOWED PERSISTENT 58 KNOT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM PASSED JUST TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. TC DYLAN IS EXPECTED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE
OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED BY THE LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20140131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 147.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 147.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 22.8S 146.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 147.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DYLAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED
INTO COASTAL AUSTRALIA. OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC
INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS NOT EXPECTATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE BACK
OVER WATER. LAND INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO THE COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF
THE SYSTEM BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_dylan_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017