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Tropical Cyclone VICTORIA : JTWC Advisories
Season 2012-2013 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone VICTORIA Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20130408 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 102.2E TO 18.5S 104.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 102.2E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S
102.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 102.2E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 082011Z SSMI PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING POLEWARD
INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130409 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z --- NEAR 11.6S 102.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 102.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 13.1S 102.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 14.7S 103.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 16.2S 103.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 17.8S 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 21.2S 104.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 24.5S 103.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 102.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF COCOS
ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 082244Z SSMIS INDICATE THAT TC
22S HAS CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THIS CONSOLIDATION NECESSITATED ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS ON THIS
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS
IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES BASED ON LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TC 22S IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 22S
SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION
AND AN ASSOCIATED WESTWARD TURN OF THE REMNANT LOW VARIES AMONG
MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS, MOST ACCURATELY DEPICTS
THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 082221Z APR 13 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND
100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130409 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 102.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 102.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 14.9S 102.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 16.3S 103.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 17.9S 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 19.8S 104.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 23.4S 104.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 25.2S 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 091121Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 22S IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC VICTORIA
WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO LOW VWS AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE
ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH VARIATION IN THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION AND
THE RESULTANT WESTWARD TURN OF THE REMNANT LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.   //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130410 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 103.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 103.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 16.4S 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 18.1S 104.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 19.9S 105.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 22.1S 105.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 25.5S 105.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 103.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 092330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A PARTIAL 092251Z SSMIS PASS
SHOWING A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 22S CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED
INTO AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH HAS SUPPORTED
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES SOUTH WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 AND DIVERGES THEREAFTER DUE TO DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS
OF THE DISSIPATION TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130410 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 103.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 103.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 18.1S 104.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 20.1S 104.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 22.6S 105.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 25.3S 106.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 29.2S 106.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 104.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HOUR INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CLOSELY GROUPED SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS AVERAGED
FROM SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE ABOVE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL NOW BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS INCREASING VWS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER SOUTH OF
20 DEGREES SOUTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EROSION OF THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND DIVERGES THEREAFTER
DUE TO DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF THE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND
111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.    //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130411 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 104.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 104.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 19.5S 104.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 22.1S 105.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 25.0S 105.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 29.1S 106.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 104.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BEEN STEADILY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS STARTED TO SHEAR THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LLCC. TC 22S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 22S IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STR AXIS,
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM TO BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, AND LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130411 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 105.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 105.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 22.7S 106.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 26.0S 107.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 105.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE RAPID DISSIPATION OF TC
22S AS DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING STRONGLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST
DUE TO A VERY VIGOROUS JET STREAM JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
STRETCHING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT IN AN
111054Z SSMIS 37-GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS THE CIMSS 850 MB
VORTICITY PRODUCT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
ACCELERATING TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES INCREASING RAPIDLY ALONG THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. THE CURRENT
VWS IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW WARNING INTENSITY BY TAU 24 DUE TO THIS STRONG VWS AND A SHARP
DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SHORT FORECAST TRACK BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20130412 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 106.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 106.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 28.1S 107.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 106.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 22S HAS ALMOST FULLY DISSIPATED UNDER THE STEADILY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER
AUSTRALIA. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF WEAKENING, TC 22S WILL
BE FULLY DISSIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAJOR FACTORS IN
THE WEAKENING TREND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_victoria_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017