Tropical Cyclones
[Index]
Main Index Home Page Stock Weather Photos Extreme Storms Discussion Storm News and Storm Chasing Reports Tropical Cyclones / Hurricanes / Typhoons Weather Data and Links Wild Fires / Bushfires Weather Observation Techniques Weather Picture Catalogue Tornado Pictures and Reports Stock Video Footage and DVDs for sale
Tropical Cyclone CYRIL : JTWC Advisories
Season 2011-2012 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone CYRIL Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20120206 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S 178.8W TO 22.8S 169.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
060900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
178.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
178.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060516Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS TCB AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS
ORGANIZED QUICKLY SINCE CROSSING FIJI AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS AT NFFN
PEAKED AT ONLY 15 KNOTS, SLP VALUES AS LOW AS 995MB WERE OBSERVED.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE TAIL-END OF A SHEAR LINE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS POORLY INITIALIZED; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20120206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060921Z FEB 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 175.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 175.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 20.6S 171.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.7S 166.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 26.7S 161.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 29.3S 155.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM (ABOUT 120NM
RADIUS) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060516Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
LLCC. A 061152Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED QUICKLY AND SHOWS A STRONG, DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30-
35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. TC
11P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW
BETWEEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION POSITIONED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THEREFORE, TC 11P IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20-30 KNOTS SPEED OF
ADVANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO GFS,
GFDN, WBAR, UKMO AND ECMWF BUT IS IN EXCELLENT, TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING
INCREASING, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VALUES
DECREASING BELOW 25C NEAR 25S LATITUDE. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO
DISSPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060921Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 060930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20120207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 172.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 172.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.4S 167.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 26.7S 162.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 29.8S 156.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 171.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITIONS WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 062355Z SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM LUPEPAU, A NEARBY ISLAND TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF RAPIDLY INCREASING (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS FURTHER
INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR AXIS AND
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TC CYRIL WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TRIPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HENCE, THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20120207 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 003//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 167.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 167.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 26.4S 161.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 29.3S 155.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 31.5S 149.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 165.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070720Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT TC 11P REMAINS A MIDGET TC WITH
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS UNDER MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS IT RESIDES WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. WHILE THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR TC CYRIL, ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM DUE TO SPEED
DIVERGENCE, THE VWS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS AND OVERCOME THE BENEFITS OF GOOD DIVERGENCE. TC 11P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR, THEREBY INCREASING VWS.
ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO
25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND BELOW. TC CYRIL WILL DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 36. BY TAU 48 THE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE INCREASES WITH THE WBAR TRACKING AGAINST THE
MAJORITY OF AIDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ALL OTHER AIDS CONTINUE A
SOUTHEAST TRACK WELL INTO THE MID-LATITUDES BUT TC 11P SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT TIME. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN-LINE WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 36 WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONGRUENT TRACK SPEEDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20120208 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 161.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 37 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 065 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 161.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 31.0S 154.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 28.5S 159.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AT
37 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHALLOWER AND IS
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CYCLONE IS NOW DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN
THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOT)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS, TC
11P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
Document: tropical_cyclone_cyril_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017