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WTXS22 PGTW 20111228 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 91.6E TO 13.2S 85.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
91.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S
94.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
AND CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
272340Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE CONSOLIDATION, DEPICTING
FRAGMENTED, BUT CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH APPROXIMATELY 10
TO 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO EASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AND
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
ADEQUATE AT APPROXIMATELY 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 135.8E
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20111228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280152ZDEC2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 89.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.3S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.5S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.8S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.3S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.2S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1050 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP WHICH SHOWS AN ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY
MARGINAL WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST PRODUCING
EASTERLY, DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280313Z
METOP-A IMAGE, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS; HOWEVER, DATA HAS BEEN SPARSE AND A 280315Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED ONLY 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES
AND PGTW AND PROVIDED JUSTIFICATION FOR THE 35-KNOT ASSESSMENT AND
INITIAL WARNING. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE METOP-A IMAGE AND MSI. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH
BUT SHOULD TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STR
CREATED BY AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR WBAR WHICH INDICATES VERY SLOW TRACK
SPEEDS, THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST DEALS WITH THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH GFDN AND STIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH AS MENTIONED, IS NOT
OCCURRING. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT
THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL THE VWS DECREASES. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A GREATER RATE AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 280152Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 280200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20111228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.7S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.8S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.0S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.6S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.2S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.0S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 920 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW AND A 281547Z METOP-A MICROWAVE
SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON DVORAK T-
NUMBER VALUES OF 2.5 FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TC 04S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH LIES IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHEAR INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC
04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THEREAFTER, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN.
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, TC 04S SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. A COMBINATION OF
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE TC
04S TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, STEERING THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE
WEST. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RESTRICTION OF UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND THE INTRODUCTION OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
RESIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20111229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 85.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 85.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.8S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.1S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.5S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.4S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.4S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING WEAKLY INTO THE CENTER. A 282347Z
CORIOLIS IMAGE DEPICTED A BROAD LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW
BANDING AND RECENT ASCAT SHOWS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MARGINAL DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST,
WHICH IS PRODUCING THE MODERATE VWS. BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC AND
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH TAU 36. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
KNES AND PGTW. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR CREATED BY AN
APPROACHING, DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 04S WILL SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND WILL WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER
TAU 72 WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND
300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20111229 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.5S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.0S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.3S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.5S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.8S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 82.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN INCREASE IN SYMMETRY. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW CENTER FIX WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE LLCC IN THE IR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE VALUE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
35-55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 04S IS A FEW
DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERCOMING THE VWS. TC 04S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36,
TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING, DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN VWS AND IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT
A FASTER RATE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, TC 04S WILL SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 WITH INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RE-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20111230 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 79.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.6S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.1S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.8S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.6S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.0S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.3S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.2S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 79.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND FROM A 300413Z METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WAS BASED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 48, TC
BENILDE IS EXPECTED TO VEER ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS A SECONDARY
RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH ASSUMES STEERING. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AS THE LEFTMOST
OUTLIER, FAVORING A SHARP POLEWARD TRACK. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND
310900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 201112130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 77.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 77.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.2S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.6S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 77.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS SYMMETRIC SPIRAL BANDING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301517Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
SPIRAL BANDING ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF THE LLCC WITH A SMALL
BREAK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TC 04S SEEMS VERY CLOSE TO
FORMING A SUSTAINED EYE-FEATURE AS INTENSITIES HAVE SHARPLY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS STILL
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS COVERING THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65-77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP, ALONG WITH A
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC BENILDE IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
POLEWARD TAP INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
04S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FROM THE CURRENT TIME OUT TO TAU 48, TC
BENILDE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE
PROPAGATING TROUGH. TC 04S SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SPIN-
DOWN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND BEGIN TO VEER ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH ASSUMES THE STEERING
FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 36.
FROM TAU 48 ONWARDS THERE IS DISCREPANCY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVEST AREA (98S). MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PORTRAYING SOME KIND OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT TO TAU 36. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FAVORS A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. TRACK SPEEDS ARE ALSO
FASTER DURING THIS TIME TO OFFSET THE RE-CURVING SCENARIOS DEPICTED
BY THE EGRR AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20111231 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 76.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 76.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.7S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.7S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.6S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.4S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.4S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 76.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A 25-NM ROUND EYE EVIDENT. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 310053Z CORIOLIS IMAGE AND A 310228Z SSMIS
IMAGE, DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND STRONG OVERALL
ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 04S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAINTAINING THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU
96. TC 04S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 48. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TC 04S SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL STR EXPECTED TO BUILD TO ITS SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE INTENSITY BY BOTH
NOGAPS AND UKMO, WHICH THEN EXHIBIT EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
INITIALIZATION AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC AND ARE, THEREFORE, FAVORED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z AND 010900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20111231 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.8S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.7S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.6S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.3S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.8S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.9S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES AND A 311504Z SSMIS
PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
AN INCREASINGLY RAGED EYE, SUGGESTING A HALT IN THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR APPEARS TO BE
DISRUPTING THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE. A RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES THAT TC 04S IS ENTRAINING DRIER
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH A THIN
RIBBON OF MOIST, TROPICAL AIR IS ALSO FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
TURNING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF THIS RIDGE. THEREAFTER, STEADY WEAKENING INDUCED BY DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, PASSAGE OVER WATER WITH DECREASING MIXED LAYER HEAT
CONTENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.
UNDER THE COMBINED NEGATIVE INTENSITY INFLUENCES, THE SYSTEM IS NOW
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48
AND DIVERGES THEREAFTER, WITH GFS DEPICTING RECURVATURE, NOGAPS AND
GFDN SHOWING A RAPID TRACK TO THE WEST, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY
SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. BECAUSE THE CHANGE IN STEERING INFLUENCES
FAVORS A SLOW DOWN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 311800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120101 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.5S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.6S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.4S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.5S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 74.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120101 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 74.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 74.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.8S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.6S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.1S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.6S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 74.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
9-NM RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 011452Z SSMIS IMAGE AND THE
EYE IN IR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW BUT HEDGED LOWER BASED ON A
65 KNOT ESTIMATE FROM FMEE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, TC 04S SHOULD TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AFTER PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 04S
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120102 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.7S 73.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 73.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.5S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.9S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.8S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.5S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.4S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.1S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 73.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLEAR WEAKENING TREND, WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
WANING AND THE EYE FILLING. INFRARED IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
RAGGED EYE HAS SHRUNK TO 5 NM AND COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. LIKEWISE, A TIME SERIES OF AMSUB RADIAL CROSS SECTIONS
VERIFY THE MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY HAS STEADILY COOLED AND SANK
DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS HAVE FALLEN
TO 75 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 65 KNOTS FROM FMEE. INFRARED ANIMATION
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERTICAL TILT AS THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE
TO ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. SO FAR, THE BENEFITS OF
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BALANCED THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES, BUT THE WESTERLIES
HAVE ALTERED STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL BRING THE
SYSTEM INTO COOLER WATERS AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CURRENTLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE A MINIMALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES. ONE FACTOR
SUSTAINING SYSTEM INTENSITY IS THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE, EVEN
IN AREAS LACKING CONVECTION. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS DEPICT
TC 04S TAPPING INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE IT
REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL ENSCONCED FROM THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
IMPINGEMENT ON OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, BUT OUTFLOW OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE LOOKS GOOD AND A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD
CHANNEL PERSISTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12,
THEN BEND WESTWARD AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ASSOCIATED
WITH MID-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. THUS FAR, GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN PERFORMING
THE BEST OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO, BUT
SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. THE PROJECTED TRACK WILL BRING TC 04S INTO A
REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE,
AND THOSE IMPEDIMENTS COMBINED WITH THE COOLING SEA WATERS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY DISSIPATION OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120102 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 20.9S 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.5S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 21.4S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.8S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.8S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT TC 04S HAS BEGUN TRACKING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS FORECAST AND
CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND, WITH SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN QUADRANT LEADING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO BECOME NEARLY EXPOSED. VWS
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. AN ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT REVEALS THAT TC 04S CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, IT IS NOW BEING SUPPLIED MOISTURE BY DISTURBANCE 98S
WHICH IS ALMOST DIRECTLY NORTH OF AND APPROACHING TC 04S. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 04S STILL HAS A DECENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWARD ARE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME.
SST VALUES ARE NOW ESTIMATED AT 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STEERING RIDGE THAT
HAS BUILT IN TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS UNTIL DISSIPATING OVER WATER
BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS MODEL WHICH TRIES
TO TAKE TC 04S DUE SOUTH INTO THE RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE EFFECTS OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120103 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 21.6S 73.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 73.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.0S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.8S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.7S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.8S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 72.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXOPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE
TO MODERATE (30-KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 030335Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC WITH MUCH WEAKER BANDING TO THE NORTH. A
COMPARISON OF THE 91 GHZ VERSION OF THE SAME IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S IS TILITED TO THE EAST AS ALTITUDE
INCREASES. A 030435Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES 40-45 KNOT WINDS
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE AND A FMEE CENTER FIX. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOW SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55-65 KNOTS FROM FMEE/KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY.
RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC BENILDE TO BE JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
WESTERLY VWS PRODUCED BY A BAROCLINIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID-LATITUDES. UPPER
DIVERGENCE IS STRONG TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC BUT THE ENTIRE WESTERN
PORTION IS DOMINATED BY CONVERGENCE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE ANIMATION
REVEALS THAT THE CYCLONIC MOSITURE FIELD THAT WAS ONCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LLCC TO THE NORTH (98S) OF TC 04S IS NOW A CONTINUOUS BAND
OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO TC BENILDE. THIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEMS
HAVE MERGED AND ANY POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION HAS
DISSIPATED. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A
FLEETING BREAK IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. BY TAU
12 THE BAROCLINIC LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL HAVE BUILT INTO
THE AREA AND INFLUENCE TC 04S TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG VWS
AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE GFDN AND
EGRR BEING TO RIGHT MOST OUTLIERS AND THE WBAR BEING THE LEFT MOST
OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE
TO THE GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120103 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 21.8S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.6S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.5S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 73.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER
THE EFFECTS OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE LLCC HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS A MID- TO LOW- LEVEL
RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. A 031701Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
THAT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT WITH MUCH WEAKER BANDING TO THE NORTH. THE MOST RECENT AMSU
RADIAL CROSS SECTION SHOWS THAT TC 04S HAS MAINTAINED ITS WARM CORE
STRUCTURE DESPITE THE STRONG VWS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A 031658Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04S IS NOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A COL
REGION. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST IS AMPLIFYING
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES PRODUCING THE VWS NOTED ABOVE AND
RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER A
BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY DUE TO THE ABSORPTION OF A PREVIOUS
DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH (98S), THE INTENSITY TREND HAS RESUMED
WEAKENING UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE VWS AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY TAU 24. AS THE MID- TO LOW- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD PRIOR TO DISSIPATING
OVER WATER. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE TRACK
FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING TC 04S SOUTH FOLLOWING
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHILE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION, WHICH IS MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT TRACK.
THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DISSIPATION OF TC 04S
BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 040900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20120104 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 21.9S 74.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 74.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 75.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER
THE EFFECTS OF STRONG (40-KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND ELONGATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. A 040414Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30-KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON AGREEABLE PGTW AND KNES CENTER FIXES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND ILL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
THE ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS PUTS THE LLCC
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROXIAMTELY 6 DEGREES TO THE WEST AND
CLOSING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG VWS OVER TC 04S. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY UNFAVORABLE 25 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 04S WILL SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG VWS AND UNFAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER
WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 20 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_benilde_jtwc_advisories.htm
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