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Tropical Cyclone VINCE : JTWC Advisories
Season 2010-2011 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone VINCE Track Map and Data

WTXS22 PGTW 20110112 08:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751JAN2011//
NAR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 14.8S 107.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120532Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 107.6E.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
107.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 575NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 120214Z AMSU PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST, BUT WITH
SOME INDICATION OF CURVATURE. THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY BEING
DRIVEN BY AN EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND BURST, AND THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS STILL TOO HIGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP SUSTAINED
CONVECTION TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PASSING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE
SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN TAU 0 AND 12. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130800Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110112 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751JAN2011//
NAR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 108.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 108.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 15.4S 110.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 15.9S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 16.3S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 17.1S 116.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 18.1S 114.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 18.6S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 18.7S 106.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 108.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION BUILDING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
BUT STILL SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 121151Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A VERY
WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH UNORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET
TO THE WEST, WITH SOME WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER
MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BUT CURRENT MOTION
BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO A REGION OF LOWER VWS. TC 06S WAS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STR
AND NOW SYSTEM MOTION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES
NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
48, FOLLOWING WHICH THE STR WILL BUILD BACK IN AND ONCE AGAIN BECOME
THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE AND STEER THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE
WEST. DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD BE
GREATLY IMPROVED. OUTFLOW, LOWER VWS, AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE
THE REBUILDING OF THE STR INCREASES VWS AND REDUCES OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH
BRINGS THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 120751Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110113 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 108.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 108.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 15.9S 109.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 16.1S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 16.5S 112.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 16.8S 114.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 17.4S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 18.2S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 18.9S 108.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 109.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT WHILE CONVECTION
HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS ELONGATED IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WITH A 130031Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTING A CENTER WEST OF CURRENT AGENCY FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 T0 45 KNOTS FROM APRF, PGTW, AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
BURST EQUATORWARD OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF THE CYCLONE, BEHIND A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFS, WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY PULLED BACK ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE THE NOGAPS AND GFS ARE
WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM AND DECREASING THE STEERING LEVEL MORE THAN
EXPECTED, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND SLOWER THEN MODEL
CONSENSUS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF, GFDN, WBAR, AND EGRR MODEL GROUPING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110113 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 110.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 110.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 16.2S 112.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 16.3S 113.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 16.2S 114.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 16.3S 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.9S 111.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 18.2S 108.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 19.5S 103.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS WANING AND BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.
A 131025Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS SYSTEM CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 60, HOWEVER, THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS WIDE
DISPARITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM'S
TURN FROM EASTWARD TO WESTWARD, BUT GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SCENARIO. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY ALONG
ITS EASTWARD TRACK AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS STEADY AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110114 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 16.2S 113.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 16.3S 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 16.4S 113.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 16.6S 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 17.4S 110.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 18.2S 108.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 19.6S 105.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 112.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132250Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND LOOP BACK TO THE
WEST BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC VINCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE SST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE EAST, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN A POLEWARD OR EQUATORWARD DIRECTION OF THE TURN.
THIS FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110114 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 114.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 114.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 16.1S 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 16.0S 114.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 16.2S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.6S 112.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 17.6S 108.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 17.8S 102.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 140618Z 37GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOWS GOOD ORGANIZATION AND TIGHTLY CURVED CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
HAS ENHANCED THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE TROUGH IS ACTING TO
SUPPRESS OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 20-30 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TC 06S IS BEING STEERED BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS, TC 06S WILL REVERSE COURSE
AND TRACK WESTWARD. 26-28 DEGREE SST ALONG TRACK WILL ACT TO SUSTAIN
THE SYSTEM AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN
IT WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATER. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SWITCH FROM AN EASTWARD
TO A WESTWARD TRACK, AND ON THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND
151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110115 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 114.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 114.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 15.9S 114.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 16.1S 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.4S 112.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 17.0S 109.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 18.4S 104.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 114.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MOVED PARTIALLY UNDER THE INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION.
THERE WAS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TURN
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTH, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
DECREASED. ADDITIONALLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO PERSISTENT SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND MODERATE
VWS, TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO ONLY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 12,
VWS SHOULD INCREASE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110115 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 114.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 114.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 15.9S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.5S 112.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 17.3S 110.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 17.8S 106.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 114.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS MINIMAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE CLASSIFICATION. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF
AN IMPRESSIVE YET UNORGANIZED EXPANSE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN AVAILABLE INFRARED
IMAGERY. NONETHELESS IT STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT EXPOSED, WHICH
IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
EVIDENCED IN RECENT METSAT IMAGERY. A 150111Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS A
WELL-DEFINED 30 TO 35 KNOT LLCC DESPITE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN SPEED AND TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH. IF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT EASE SOON IT APPEARS UNLIKELY VINCE WILL BE ABLE
TO SUSTAIN A 35 KNOT LLCC. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VWS WILL
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20110116 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 113.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 113.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.3S 112.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 113.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHALLOWER AND HAS DECOUPLED FURTHER FROM THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO 90 NM TO THE WEST. THIS IS
EVIDENT ON A 152225 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTING A FULLY EXPOSED
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE
30-KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC VINCE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN VIEW OF THE REDUCED
CENTRAL WIND SPEED AND UNFAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK VWS, THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_vince_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017