WTPS32 PGTW 20100221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210921Z FEB 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 157.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 157.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 11.5S 157.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 13.5S 158.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 15.0S 159.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 16.9S 161.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 19.2S 164.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 20.7S 166.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 21.5S 170.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 157.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS OF 1800Z THREE OUT OF THE FOUR FIXING
AGENCIES IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAVE ASSESSED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT 35 KNOTS, JUSTIFYING THE ISSUANCE OF
THIS WARNING. A 210829Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 35
KNOTS AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE LLCC HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE BETWEEN THE TIME OF THAT
PASS AND NOW GIVEN THE CONTINUED BUILD UP OF DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LARGELY DIFFLUENT OVER THE
REGION WITH NO ONE WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS LOW TO MODERATE, AND IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND PUSHES DOWNSTREAM. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE WILL TURN
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRANSIT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID TO DEEP LAYER
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND QUICKLY
INTENSIFY IN AN IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). HOWEVER, AFTER
TAU 72 INTENSIFICATION SHOULD HALT WITH AN INCREASE IN VWS. OHC WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER AROUND THIS TIME. AS IS TYPICAL OF A FIRST
FORECAST THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LARGER
DEVIATIONS OCCURRING IN THE LATER TAUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND
222100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
210921Z FEB 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW
210930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 9.6S 159.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 159.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 10.5S 159.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 12.1S 160.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 13.8S 161.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 15.5S 163.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.6S 166.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 19.6S 167.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 22.0S 168.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 159.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 220600Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKENING SYSTEM UNDER STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC LACKS CONVECTIVE BANDING AND IS DISPLACED
SOUTHWEST OF A LINEAR, ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
30 TO 45 KNOTS; 211932Z ASCAT DATA SHOWING 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE; AND THE OVERALL WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
TRACKERS (ECMWF, UKMET, GFS, NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKER STEERING INFLUENCE. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, PERSISTENT THROUGH TAU 120, CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). BASED ON THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND PEAK AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72
(SLIGHTLY BELOW PEAK OF 56 KNOTS IN STIPS GUIDANCE) THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE 21/18Z WARNING, WHICH INDICATED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
70 KNOTS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN
BELOW 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG VWS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20100222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 160.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 160.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 13.7S 161.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 15.6S 163.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 160.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN DECOUPLED
FROM A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, IN THE PAST 3 HOURS, THE LLCC HAS MOVED UNDER AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
17P IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS
FROM PHFO AND PGTW. TC 17P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
INCREASING VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECASTED TRACK, BUT INDICATES INTENSITY VARIATIONS RANGING FROM
29 TO 49 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A
WEAKER SYSTEM AS TC 17P TRACKS INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). TC 17P IS CURRENTLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A WEAK LLCC FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THERE IS THE POSSI-
BILITY THAT TC 17P COULD RE-INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 24. FOR THIS REASON
TC 17P WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20100226 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 163.4W TO 18.5S 164.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 163.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
163.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 163.6W, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. A 260823Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED BUT SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED L0W-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THE MOTION HAS BEEN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 260824Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE
COVERING THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
TO 20-25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTED 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 271400Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100227 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SARAH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SARAH) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 162.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 162.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 17.8S 162.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 18.5S 161.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 162.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SARAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS PROPAGATED BACK OVER A PREVIOUSLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND FROM A 270803Z ASCAT IMAGE AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS DERIVED FROM A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM
PGTW. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PHFO, KNES AND NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17P IS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC SARAH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO HIGH VWS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER WATER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271200Z IS 8 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_sarah_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]