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Tropical Cyclone PAUL : JTWC Advisories
Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone PAUL Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20100327 17:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 136.2E TO 16.0S 137.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
271530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
136.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 136.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA, WHICH HAS HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTHEAST
ISLAND INDICATING 27 KNOTS WITH 1005 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281700Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100327 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 136.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 136.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 13.5S 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.0S 136.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 14.4S 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 14.5S 135.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 14.4S 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA SHOW INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS LOCATED
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 22P IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 22P SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHWEST AND WESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
BUILDS IN. AS TC 22P CONTINUES TRACKING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNTIL REACHING LAND
BY TAU 48 AND BEGIN DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
AFTER TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS INCLUDING GFDN, EGRR, AND NOGAPS, WHICH
TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE GFS AND WBAR MODELS TRACK TC 22P
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD, RESPECTIVELY, BECAUSE THEY FORECAST A
WEAKER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 271700Z MAR 10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 271700) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100328 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 136.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 136.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 13.5S 136.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 13.8S 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 14.0S 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 14.0S 134.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 136.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA SHOW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR ANIMATION AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 36 KNOTS FROM
NORTHEAST ISLAND, 38 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 22P IS
CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS SLOWLY TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 22P
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH BUILDS IN AND STEERS THE SYSTEM. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BLUE MUD BAY BY TAU 24 AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY
TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS
FAVORING A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100328 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 136.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 136.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 13.5S 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 13.7S 136.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 13.9S 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 14.1S 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE,
AUSTRALIA SHOW DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON NORTHEAST ISLAND OBSERVATIONS,
APPROXIMATELY 30 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC, OF 38 KNOTS AND 997 MB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 22P IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF
DIVERGENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
PAUL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STR BUILDS IN AND TAKES STEERING CONTROL,
TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO REACH LAND BY TAU 32 AND BEGIN DISSIPATING AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT DEPICTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100329 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 13.4S 136.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 136.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 13.5S 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 13.6S 135.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 13.8S 135.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 136.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM
GOVE, AUSTRALIA SHOW DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM, AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
OBSERVING STATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 22P IS UNDER A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
PAUL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STR)
TO THE SOUTH. THE STR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY GAINING CONTROL, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 22P WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE BLUE MUD BAY
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ANS SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT DEPICTION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100329 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 135.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 135.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 13.3S 135.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 13.4S 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 13.6S 135.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 13.9S 135.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 14.5S 135.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 135.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, SHOW WEAKENING CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291640Z AMSRE MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, PREVIOUSLY APPARENT
IN THE 290832Z SSMI IMAGE, HAS ERODED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SYSTEM
MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE AMSRE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM ADRM (65 KNOTS) AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IN IR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA. TC 22P IS
CURRENTLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER LAND IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 48. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TC
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, AS THE NER
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINES TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, TC PAUL COULD
REGENERATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NOGAPS,
WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE STR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY AND FAVORS A TRACK EAST OF
CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE OUTLIERS, AT SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK
SPEEDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100330 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 135.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 135.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 13.5S 134.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 14.0S 135.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 14.5S 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 135.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (PAUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE RADAR LOOP FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, CONTINUE TO SHOW MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. TC 22P
HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
COMBINED WITH WANING POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAVE HELPED TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO 40 KNOTS. TC PAUL IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MAKE A POLEWARD TURN OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACK OUT OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND
REGENERATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_paul_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017