Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone OLI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 20100131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
245 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 171.1W TO 12.2S 163.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 170.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 173.6W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 170.3W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH OF PAGO PAGO.
AS OF 1258Z SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 999.8 MB AT PAGO PAGO,
REPRESENTING A 1.7 MB DEPARTURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO HAVE INCREASED TO A 2.0 DATA-T OR 30
KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS HAS CONTINUED
TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DEEPENING AND EXPANDING CENTRAL CONVECTION.
BANDING FEATURES, PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED TO MATURE AS THEY FEED INTO THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS HAS ALSO MOVED CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM, RELAXING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 166.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 166.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.3S 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.8S 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.4S 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.2S 157.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.3S 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.3S 150.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.3S 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 166.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHEAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONSOLIDATION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
010058Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL
DEFINED LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30
TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 312009Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL INTENSIFY OVER FAVORABLE
SST (28 TO 30C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 12P SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD UNTIL TAU 48, THEN SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY 20 KNOTS PER DAY UNTIL TAU
72, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SST AND OHC CONDITIONS. AT TAU 72 THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED
(NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, AND ECMWF), BUT IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
311500Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 311500).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 163.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 163.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.4S 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.3S 159.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.2S 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.3S 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.8S 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8S 154.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.4S 153.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 162.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW
AND PHFO, AS WELL AS A 010842Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND PHFO RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SLOW AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST PICKS UP THE SYSTEM AND TRACKS IT INCREASINGLY POLEWARD. ALL
THE WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL VENTING AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS UNTIL
NEAR TAU 96, AROUND THE SAME TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO ELEVATE AS
THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 72. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE LAST FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONE TRENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN
SLOWED, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER TAUS, IN LINE WITH A SLOWER MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100202 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 161.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 161.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.9S 160.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.2S 159.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.4S 159.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.8S 158.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.9S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.9S 156.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.4S 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 161.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MODERATELY-SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL
AS A 011948Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH DEPICTS CENTER WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND NFFN OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS HAVE REPORTED A WEAKENING TREND AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WANE SLIGHTLY. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A CHANGE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGE TO REFLECT A SLOWER TRANSLATION SPEED
AND LOWER MAXIMUM INTENSITY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 12P
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IS NOW FORECAST TO PUSH WESTWARD AND
HINDER SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOVEMENT BY TC 12P. ADDITIONALLY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG EQUATORWARD TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM WHILE ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRANSIT
SOUTHWEST OF TC OLI. AS A RESULT, RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE
TROUGHS AND OVER TC OLI, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES AND THE SYSTEM'S OUTFLOW IMPROVES
INTO THE TROUGHS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS HAVE SLOWED DRASTICALLY
AND HAVE SPREAD OUT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE GFS AND GFDN MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHWEST MOVE CAUSED BY DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST WHILE THE
NOGAPS AND UKMO SOLUTIONS SHOW TC OLI TAKING A VERY SLOW, POLEWARD
TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE JTWC CONSENSUS, THOUGH IT
FAVORS THE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY NOGAPS AND UKMO SINCE THE
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z AND 030300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100202 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 159.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 159.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.1S 158.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.3S 157.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.7S 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.8S 155.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.4S 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3S 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 159.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST OF
BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
FLARE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). A BROKEN BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE LLCC IS APPARENT, BUT HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE EAST-WEST, OUT
PACING THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE ENHANCING THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW CHANNELS. THE LLCC HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER THE SPOR-
ADIC CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POSITION IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT CONSTANT
AT 45 KNOTS AS THE ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION HAVE SEEN ONLY SMALL
CHANGES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 12P, WILL TRACK
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS A DEVELOPING EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 12P. THIS EXTENSION WILL THEN
SHIFT THE TRACK TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK AROUND TAU 36 TO 48.
THE TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE STR EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK THROUGH TAU 120.
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH TAU 72 AS IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BEYOND TAU 72 TO UNFAVORABLE LEVELS HINDERING
OUTFLOW. THE LOWER LEVEL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TRACK INTO A LESS FAVOR-
ABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100203 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 157.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 157.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.2S 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.0S 155.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.9S 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.1S 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.5S 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 157.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF
BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021648Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021926Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 40-KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) JUST
SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT
IS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OLI'S
FORECAST TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST BECAUSE
THE STEERING RIDGE APPEARS TO BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DECREASE IN DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A SYSTEM TO THE
EAST. TC OLI WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN TC 12P
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 120, TC OLI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS AS ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WHICH INCLUDE EGRR, GFDN,
JGSM AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100203 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 155.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.7S 153.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.9S 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2S 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0S 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.4S 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.3S 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 154.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION FOR TC 12P HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
BUILD OVER THE LLCC, WITH A 030741Z TRMM PASS SHOWING A DEVELOPING
MICROWAVE EYE, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
INDICATES THE LLCC WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND TC 12P MOVES TOWARDS A COL THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR BORA BORA. A DEVELOPING EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 12P WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST
AND TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TRACK SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 36, AS THE STR STRENGTHENS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ALLOW TC 12P TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DISRUPT POLEWARD OUTFLOW; SLOWLY BRINGING THE
INTENSITY DOWN THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100204 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 153.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 153.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.8S 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.8S 151.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.1S 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.3S 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.4S 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 31.3S 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 153.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 28 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 040023Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, HOWEVER, SHOWS SLIGHT EROSION OF EYE WALL CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OVERALL, IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND PHFO. THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO CORRELATE
WITH A 031907Z ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BORA BORA INDICATING
010/30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER AN
ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
(REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 24) AND TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER COOLER SST WITH INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). NEAR TAU 96, TC OLI IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH TRACKS THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z AND 050300Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100204 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 152.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 152.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4S 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.7S 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.8S 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.7S 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.0S 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 152.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OLI HAS INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING (NR 007). AROUND 1200Z BOTH PGTW AND PHFO ASSIGNED
A 6.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE (OR 115 KNOTS), CONFIRMING THE
INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY. INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL
ABOVE 26C, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE POLEWARD BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AROUND TAU 24, VWS WILL ELEVATE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26C. THESE FACTORS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HEALTHY WEAKENING PRIOR TO INTERACTION WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NEAR 29S. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN
NEAR TAU 48 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100205 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 151.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 151.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.0S 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.6S 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.3S 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.5S 143.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.3S 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 150.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 17 NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING IN
AREAL EXTENT. THIS IS EVIDENT IN A 050012Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SYMMETRIC EYE WALL WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER WITH SLIGHT EROSION OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 12P HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36. BY TAU 72, TC
OLI IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS WHICH
RAPIDLY DECREASES THE INTENSITY AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100205 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 149.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 149.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.4S 148.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.9S 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.6S 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.4S 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 149.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE POLEWARD
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH PGTW AND PHFO HAVE DROPPED THEIR
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HALF A T-NUMBER TO 5.5 OR 102 KNOTS
SINCE THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC HOUR. THE SOUTHERN EYE WALL HAS BEGUN TO
ERODE AS THE SOUTHERNMOST CONVECTION IS SHEARED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW, LEAVING THE EYE RAGGED AND IRREGULAR. THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/OCEANIC HEAT. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL TRANSITION TO A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN OUTLIER, TCLAPS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z AND 061500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100206 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 25.6S 148.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 148.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.4S 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.9S 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 33.1S 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3S 147.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
IN ADDITION, THE VISIBLE EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY, BUT TC 12P REMAINS A FULLY
TROPICAL SYSTEM AS THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND PHFO DVORAK
ESTIMATES, WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT CONSERVATION OF ANGULAR
MOMENTUM. TC OLI WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INCREASE IN FORWARD TRACK
SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE WHILE, DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREAING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANISTIONING TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY
TAU 12 AND BECOME A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z AND 070300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 28.9S 145.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 145.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 31.8S 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 144.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 12P HAS
RAPIDLY LOST ORGANIZATION AS IT HAS SPED UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
DEVELOPING REVERSE ORIENTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS IMPACTED THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE CONDITIONS
REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT ALREADY AT UNFAVORABLE VALUES. TC 12P HAS STARTED EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW WILL REMAIN A STRONG MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM AFTER TRANSITION WITH WINDS MAINTAINING 40 TO 50
KNOTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 20 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_oli_jtwc_advisories.htm
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