Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone OLGA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone OLGA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20100122 20:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 195
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.9S 153.2E TO 17.6S 146.0E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221730Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 151.6E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
157.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 151.6E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221514Z AMSR-E AND A 221700Z TRMM PASS
INDICATED BANDING CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE LLCC, AND IS
SUPPORTED BY ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND AND LIHOU REEF INDICATE WINDS
NEAR THE LLCC ARE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER CONVERGENT
FLOW BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. CENTRAL
PRESSURES ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 999 AND 1001 MB BASED ON THE RECENT
OBSERVATIONS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS SUPPORTING GOOD WEST-
WARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO CREATING A MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY AND SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232030Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100123 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.1S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.5S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.3S 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.4S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.9S 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.2S 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.4S 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 149.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT,
DEEP, BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING TOWARDS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221514Z AMSR-E AND A 221700Z TRMM PASS
ALSO SHOWS THE BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS
STRONGEST ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC, AND A CLEAR CENTER
EVIDENT IN THIS RADAR IMAGERY LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION OF THE SYSTEM ESTIMATED IN THIS WARNING. OBSERVATIONS FROM
WILLIS ISLAND INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC ARE AROUND 35 KNOTS,
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 2.5 DVORAK FIX FROM PGTW. CENTRAL
PRESSURES, BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS AT WILLIS ISLAND, HAVE CONTINUED
TO DROP AND ARE CURRENTLY AT 993.5 MB. THE LLCC HAS PASSED ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND, PROVIDING A VERY GOOD BASELINE FOR ANALYSIS
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT HAS DEVELOPED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS TC 09P, AND IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE TC 09P WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS PRIOR TO THEIR MERGER WILL
LIKELY HINDER TC 09P FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL
IN NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE INCREASE IN
VORTICITY AFTER THEIR MERGER SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS
IT TRACKS OVER CAPE YORK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. UPON ENTERING
THE GULF, WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE
CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER LAND AROUND TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH THE TRACK BASED ON A CON-
SENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 222021Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100123 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.0S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.9S 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.1S 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.6S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.3S 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.5S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 147.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SINCE THE LAST WARNING, TC OLGA HAS
INTENSIFIED BY 15 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 230758Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) OCCURING BETWEEN TC 09P AND AN INVEST AREA
LOCATED 150 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE DCI WILL ENABLE TC OLGA
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE MERGES
WITH THE OTHER SYSTEM BY TAU 24. AS TC 09P CONTINUES INTO THE GULF
OF CARPENTERIA AFTER TAU 36, OLGA WILL RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO VERY WARM
WATERS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, TC 09P WILL
ONCE AGAIN REACH LAND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IN THE EXTENDED TAU'S,
THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE MORE NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR JGSM AND TCLAPS WHICH DEPICT
A WEAKER STEERING RIDGE AND TAKE THE SYSTEM IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100124 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 146.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 146.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.6S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.4S 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.1S 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.7S 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 145.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MAIN-
TAINED ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE LLCC EVEN WITH THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IMPACTING ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
WESTERN OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE DUE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL REMAIN A MAJOR FACTOR AS TC 09P MOVES
OVER CAPE YORK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. VWS IS CURRENTLY AT A
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVEL (20 TO 30 KNOTS) BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AS TC 09P MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTHERN AUST-
RALIA. THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE CAPE, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF. A MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 09P WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, LEADING TO A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM
AND EVENTUALLY CAUSING TC 09P TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND TAU
120. UPON MOVING BACK OVER AUSTRALIA, AROUND TAU 48, THE COMBINATION
OF MODERATE VWS AND LAND EFFECTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 09P. COMPLETE
DISSIPATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUID-
ANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 241500Z AND 250300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100124 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.4S 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.7S 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 145.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM NORTH
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN LESS
THAN GALE-FORCE STRENGTH. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KTS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND JUSTIFIED DESPITE THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN A 240411Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE. AS FOR POSITION, THE CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS A BROADENING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE CURRENT SYSTEM POSITION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION IN THE RADAR
SIGNATURE AND CLOUDS OBSCURING THE LLCC IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT TC 09P MAY EVEN BE
DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
OPPOSING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, THE
STEERING LEVEL HAS SHIFTED TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE CROSS-
EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH BECOMING MORE OF A STEERING
INFLUENCE THAN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC OLGA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW, WESTWARD
TRACK AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE OVER-
INITIALIZING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING
OLGA FASTER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST VIA THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FINALLY, THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT TC O9P MAY RE-INTENSIFY TO
MINIMAL GALE STRENGTH IN THE GULF OF CARPENTENTARIA AROUND TAU 48.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 10 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20100126 17:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 16.1S 137.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 138.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3S
140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM WEST
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS TRACKING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND IS LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 137.9E AT 26/17Z. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CENTRE ISLAND AND
MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS, SLP
NEAR 999 MB AND 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 3 MB INDICATIVE OF A
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF CARPENTARIA, GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND
RECENT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271730Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100126 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261721ZJAN2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 137.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 137.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.7S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.2S 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.1S 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.2S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.2S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.6S 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 22.4S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 137.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR
IMAGERY FROM THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR, AND A 261628Z AMSR-E 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REGENERATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITH IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM ADRM AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGH SST (31C) AND FAVORABLE OHC
VALUES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER TAU 12, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN
NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 48 A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BREAK DOWN THE STR AND, IN COMBINATION WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, PROVIDE AN EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. TC
09P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO CONTINUED
LAND INTERACTION, BUT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15-20 KNOT RATE
PER DAY UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN EASTWARD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 261721Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100127 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.1S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.7S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.8S 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.3S 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.0S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.8S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 137.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND SUGGEST THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS YET TO EXIT INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. BORROLOOLA, THE NEAREST REPORTING STATION TO THE LLCC,
IS REPORTING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 994.1 MB, WHICH GENERALLY
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A 35 KNOT CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND ENTER THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS A
TRANSITORY, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. ALL AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR,
INDICATE A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE EAST WITHIN THE 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS
THIS RIDGE WEAKENS, MID TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING FORCE AND WILL TRACK THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE EAST, DEEPER INTO THE GULF. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM 28 DEGREES CELSIUS (C) NEAR THE COASTLINE
TO OVER 30 C FURTHER OUT TO SEA, WILL SUPPORT MARKED
INTENSIFICATION, IN ADDITION TO STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 OLGA WILL TRACK BACK OVER
LAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.1S 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.9S 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.1S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.1S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.1S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 23.4S 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 136.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 09P HAS BEEN
SLOWLY TRACKING OVER LAND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS HELPED TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY HAVE BEEN USED TO ESTIMATE
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. RECENTLY THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE LLCC, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
MORE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 09P IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BY TAU 24, AND WILL START
TO INTENSIFY AS TC 09P TRACKS EASTWARD, SHIFTING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
TAU 36 AS NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 09P BECOMES
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, IT IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE SHIFTING THE TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 96, WITH LAND-
FALL INTO SOUTHERN CAPE YORK BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60. LAND INFLU-
ENCES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TC 09P TO DISSI-
PATE BY TAU 96 OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P
(NISHA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.2S 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.5S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 136.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK SLOWLY OVER LAND IN A SOUTHWARD DIRECTION
OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 009//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290851Z JAN 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 139.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 139.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1S 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 139.8E.
JTWC IS RESUMING WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA). TC
09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC OLGA HAS MOVED OUT
INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, CAPTURES A
CONSOLDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE CLOSE TO 989 MB. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 25 KNOTS (PGTW) TO 45 KNOTS (ABRF). LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MINIMUM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
TC OLGA WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS BEFORE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ONCE AGAIN MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21
PGTW 290900).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20100130 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.4S 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.1S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 141.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09P MADE
LANDFALL EAST OF BURKETOWN AT 29/20Z AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
INLAND. THE SYSTEM PASSED 40NM SOUTH OF NORMANTON AT 30/00Z WITH PEAK
WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 29 KNOTS GUSTING TO 39 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SLP OF 986.1 MB (AT 29/2030Z). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 12-24 WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09P WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NISHA) FINAL
WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_olga_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
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