WTPS22 PGTW 20091212 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S 173.4E TO 14.5S 179.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112330Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 174.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
169.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A REGION OF TROUGHING. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CON-
VECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH BANDING STARTING TO DEVELOP.
A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE LLCC HAD 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS THE LLCC
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS AT MODERATE LEVELS BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THE VWS WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE SST, MODERATE VWS VALUES AND AN ORGANIZING LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20091212 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 175.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 175.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 15.1S 176.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 16.7S 177.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 18.4S 179.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 20.1S 178.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 23.8S 172.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 175.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A LARGE CLUSTER
OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. A 12/1224Z
TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 12/0939Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWED A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED 30-35 KNOT SYSTEM AND
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION ALONG WITH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-
35 KNOTS AND THE ASCAT WINDS. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
WHICH IS ORIENTED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 36 WHICH WILL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOLER SST. TC 04P SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE UKMO, NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN, WBAR AND ECMWF
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 120121Z DEC 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 120130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND
131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20091213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 175.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 175.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 15.8S 176.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 17.4S 178.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 18.9S 179.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 20.8S 177.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 24.7S 170.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 175.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO
WRAP INTO A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION ALONG
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LLCC. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT
NADI, FIJI ARE ONLY SHOWING 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH
PRESSURES AROUND 1005 MB. THIS SUGGESTS THE SIZE OF TC 04P REMAINS
FAIRLY COMPACT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK
AND INDICATE THAT BEYOND TAU 36 INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CAUSE TC
04P TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE FORECAST EXPECTS
ET TO BE COMPLETE AROUND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20091213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 176.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 176.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 16.9S 177.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 17.9S 178.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 19.0S 179.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 20.6S 177.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 24.3S 171.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 176.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 04P HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. A 131129Z TRMM 37H GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES, AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING ALONG A
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC MICK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
36 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. TC 04P SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS AT TAU 24 AND
THEN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20091214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 177.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 177.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 19.8S 179.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 21.9S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 23.9S 174.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 26.0S 171.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 178.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM NORTH-
EAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. AN EYE IS READILY APPARENT WITH DVORAKS FROM PGTW AT
4.0 INDICATING 65 KNOTS AS WELL. OBSERVATIONS AT NADI, CURRENTLY
INDICATE 44 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 980 MB. THIS SUPPORTS THE
PRESENT INTENSITY OF TC 04P AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH FIJI. THE TRACK
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND HAS SEEN AN ACCELERATION AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 04P IS ENHANCING THE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
THAT HAS OCCURRED. THE FORECAST KEEP INTENSITY AT 65 KNOTS THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE OF THE LLCC AS IT CROSSES
FIJI IS EXPECTED, WITH A BRIEF REORGANIZATION UPON CROSSING. HOWEVER,
THE TRACK SPEED WILL QUICKLY TAKE TC 04P INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BEYOND TAU 12 INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL START TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 48, BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20091214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 178.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 178.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 19.2S 179.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 20.1S 179.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 21.6S 177.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 178.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR THE DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. TC MICK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW. TC O4P WILL TRACK INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS), COOL SST (LESS THAN 26C), AND
UNFAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20091215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 179.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 179.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 19.5S 179.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 20.2S 178.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 21.0S 177.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 180.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS SINCE CROSSING FIJI AS A 70-KNOT SYSTEM AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY, RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WANING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DECLINING DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND LEANS TOWARDS THE HIGHER CURRENT
INTENSITIES (CI'S) OF 45 KNOTS IN CONSIDERATION OF THE 142145Z ASCAT
PASS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, MICK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND
160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20091215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 177.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 177.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 21.2S 175.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 22.9S 173.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS EXPOSED
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF NEARLY-DEPLETED DEEP CONVECTION. A 150530Z DVORAK INTENSITY FIX
FROM PGTW INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO 35 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE REMNANT LLCC WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10
FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_mick_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]