Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone LAURENCE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20091212 22:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 129.7E TO 13.3S 125.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 129.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
131.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING OF THE WELL
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAD BEEN
APPARENT 24 HOURS AGO. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER WATER
AT THIS TIME AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL REGION.
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC, AND HAS EXPANDED RADIALLY
FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132200Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 84.5E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.4S 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.5S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.8S 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.3S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.5S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.6S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 127.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130513Z AMSR-E 36V GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM ADRM IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AT 45 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. TC 06S IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BUT SHOULD START TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EAST OF 118E INTO NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10 TO 15 KNOT
RATE PER DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW NEAR TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
RECURVATURE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 122151Z DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 12.1S 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.0S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.6S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.2S 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.9S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.3S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.8S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 126.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SEEN MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE
INTO ELONGATED BANDS. MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 06S IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL STR TO THE WEST. AS
A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS TRANSIT EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA, THE STR WILL WEAKEN ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY, RE-ALIGNING THE STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE TRACK SPEED REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TC 06S TRACKING TOWARDS PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA BY TAU 120. LANDFALL IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND TAU
120. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.1S 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.9S 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.9S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.6S 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 127.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS RELOCATED FROM
THE PREVIOUS 13/18Z WARNING POSITION OF 12.1S 126.9E TO THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM SHOWING A CONSOLIDATING
AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RE-ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC BECAME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER 13/06Z AND
TRACKED SOUTHWARD, STRENGTHENED, AND THEN TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. DUE TO THE LACK OF DATA E.G., QUIKSCAT AND VISIBLE
IMAGERY, THIS ERRATIC TRACK WAS NOT IDENTIFIED UNTIL RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALED THE STRONGER, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC. THE FORECAST TRACK AND
PHILOSOPHY HAVE ALSO BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
RELOCATION. CURRENTLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND RADAR
DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE FORECAST WITH FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS (GFDN, WBAR, TC-LAPS, NOGAPS, UKMO AND ECMWF). THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVERLAND NEAR TAU
12, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT PARALLELS THE COAST WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK
FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST WITH LESS LAND INTERACTION AND
INTENSIFY AS HIGH AS 55-65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) FINAL WARNING
(WTXS32 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.8S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.6S 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.5S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.3S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.6S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.8S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 126.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ACCORDINGLY, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS
AND A 141647Z 37 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY WRAPPED
BANDING AND A MICROWAVE EYE. WYNDHAM RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE
WRAPPING CONVECTION AND APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
CONFIRMING THE POSITION. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR TERM, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH BUT ENABLE
THE STEERING RIDGE TO REMAIN ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BY TAU 48, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
INTERACTS OVER LAND AND IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A LOBE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK BACK OVER VERY WARM WATER AND BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091215 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.2S 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.3S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.2S 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 125.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST, LAURENCE HAS INTENSIFIED TO NEAR 75 KNOTS (BASED ON 4.5
DVORAK FROM PGTW). OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 74 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE PASSED
APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS AGO. IN CONTRAST TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK DEEPER INTO INTERIOR AUSTRALIA
AND DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 48 OVER LAND. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED ALONG 105E, AND EXTENDING AS FAR EQUATORWARD AS 10S, IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AS
IT APPROACHES. THIS WILL INHIBIT WESTWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING
FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT OF THE NORTH, DRIVING LAURENCE INLAND. ALL
AVAILABLE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, INDICATE A
NOTICEABLE SOUTHWARD TURN INLAND BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, WITH MOST OF
THESE MEMBERS KEEPING THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND FOR 24 HOURS OR
GREATER. GFS, ECMWF, AND GFDN ATTEMPT TO PULL THE CIRCULATION BACK
OVER WATER, JUST NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AND SLOWLY REINTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK VERIFIES, THEN THIS IS NOT
LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE DURATION THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER
LAND. HOWEVER, IF THE TROUGH FILLS PRIOR TO PASSAGE, THE CYCLONE
COULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE COAST, MUCH STRONGER THAN
FORECAST, AND PROCEED BACK OVER WATER INTACT AND POSITIONED TO
REINTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.7S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.6S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.2S 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.5S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 124.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. TC LAURENCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE, LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AS IT HAS STAYED OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH ROBUST
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PINHOLE EYE WHILE A 151730Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE
MIDGET SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH DEVELOPED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, LAURENCE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING TOWARD 10-
DEGREES SOUTH. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36 THE TROUGH WILL START TO FLATTEN
OUT AND THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL START TO FILL. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, ENABLING
THE TC TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48. AS FOR
INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12, AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO TURN MORE
POLEWARD, LAURENCE WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND
AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE
RAPIDLY AND BY TAU 72 LAURENCE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE (AFTER TRACKING OVER LAND FOR MORE THAN
36 HOURS). THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, OVER LAND, THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THREE
DAYS, HOWEVER, THE AIDS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SOME OF THE MODELS
TRY TO TRACK LAURENCE BACK OVER WATER. THAT SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM
LIKELY AS A TRACK OVER LAND FOR A LONG DURATION OF TIME WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES
TO REFLECT A DISSIPATION PHILOSPHY BY TAU 72 AND IS JUST WEST OF THE
JTWC CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.1S 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.7S 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.2S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.7S 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 124.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. LAURENCE HAS TURNED SHARPLY SOUTH
AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
DEEPER INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL,
NORTH-SOUTH AMPLIFIED STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT DAY.
AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND SHALLOWS OVER LAND IT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUBJECT TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL TEND TO TRACK THE THEN
REMNANT CIRCULATION TOWARDS THE WEST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE A 3-PLUS DAY
TRANSIT OVER LAND, AND ENTER BACK INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AS A WARN-
ABLE SYSTEM. ALL BUT JGSM AND TCLAPS INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER LAND
PRIOR TO RE-ENTERING THE INDIAN OCEAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND
170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.3S 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.2S 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.4S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 124.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS TRACKED ONTO LAND AND IS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-ALIGN OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION. AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS THE STEERING WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER LEVELS, AND
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE LOW
LEVEL TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST AGAIN AROUND TAU 48. HOWEVER, LAND
EFFECTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
AFTER APPROACHING THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODELS SUG-
GESTING THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACK OVER WATER AND RE-DEVELOP. BASED
ON THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER LAND, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). WITH THE
POSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING BACK OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0S 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.2S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.6S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 123.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE BROOME RADAR AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 06S HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD AND
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AT
18/13Z INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS JUST MOVED INLAND OVER
DAMPIER LAND AND ALSO DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AN 18/1129Z SSMIS IMAGE REFLECTS THIS IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION AND HINTS AT A WEAK, FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. DESPITE
THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, NUMEROUS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SUPPORT A 30-35 KNOT SYSTEM AT BEST. TC 06S
PASSED DIRECTLY OVER DERBY AT 18/09Z WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 998 MB AND
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW,
PARTICULARLY POLEWARD, WHICH IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH ERODES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE
ONCE IT MOVES BACK OVER WARM WATER BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM
MAY INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AND PEAK AT A MUCH HIGHER INTENSITY
UNDER THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 122.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 122.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.5S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.1S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.2S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.3S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.6S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 122.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS RECENTLY MOVED BACK
OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THE POSITION OVER WATER IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROOME,
AUSTRALIA, WHICH ALSO SHOWS THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 AND NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING MODERATE WIND SHEAR
AND BOTH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 36 THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
IT MAKES LANDFALL BY TAU 96. ONCE 06S REACHES LAND, IT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.3S 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.5S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.2S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.7S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.8S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LAURENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA UNDER THE PREDOMINATE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED NEAR 35 KNOTS, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY BROOME AND RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SEAWARD (AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF LAND) WHERE IT WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW MECHANISMS
ALOFT. THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH AROUND TAU 36 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. IN GENERAL, ALL AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48
AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091220 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.5S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.0S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.6S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.4S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.4S 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 120.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND EXPANDED AS TC 06S TRACKED OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 28 CELSIUS. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO
SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR IMAGERY LOOP FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC LAURENCE IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AROUND TAU 24 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND BEFORE TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY THEREAFTER, AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY
AND RUGGED TERRAIN IN ADDITION TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.8S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.6S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON 201200Z DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES
FROM PGTW AND APRF LAURENCE HAS INTENSIFIED TO 80 KNOTS. LAURENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 90 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE TC
HAS BEGUN TO SLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEAKENING AND WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS WILL TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
LAURENCE WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.8S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.6S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON 201200Z DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES
FROM PGTW AND APRF LAURENCE HAS INTENSIFIED TO 80 KNOTS. LAURENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 90 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE TC
HAS BEGUN TO SLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEAKENING AND WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS WILL TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
LAURENCE WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.0S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.8S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.6S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON 201200Z DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES
FROM PGTW AND APRF LAURENCE HAS INTENSIFIED TO 80 KNOTS. LAURENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 90 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE TC
HAS BEGUN TO SLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEAKENING AND WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS WILL TURN SOUTH AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
LAURENCE WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 19.0S 120.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 120.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.8S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 120.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS RECURVED AND TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND
DEEPENED AS IT CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY
FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA, AND FROM A 202330Z INFRARED IMAGE SHOWING A
15-NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES OF T5.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEGUN
STEERING THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 12 BEFORE IT
RAPIDLY WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXPOSURE TO
AUSTRALIA'S RUGGED TERRAIN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNING
AT 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20091221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.1S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 120.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT PORT HEDLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR ALMOST 4 HOURS,
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF
MANDORA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM MANDORA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED TO 70 KNOTS FROM A PEAK INTENSITY OF OVER 130 KNOTS
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AT 0830Z. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY OVER
LAND WHILE TRACKING DEEPER INTO INTERIOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_laurence_jtwc_advisories.htm
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