Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ANJA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2009-2010 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ANJA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20091114 00:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 73.0E TO 14.8S 67.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 71.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S
72.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 71.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 132047Z AMSRE PASS INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS (131623Z ASCAT) INDICATES
WINDS AS STRONG AS 25 KNOTS AT THE CENTER. IT IS LIKELY THE
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER, AND THE
IMPRESSIVE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO RELAX AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL VENTING IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 71.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 71.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.0S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.3S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.6S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.1S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.8S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.7S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 71.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE DESPITE THE RECENT DIURNAL WEAKENING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO INCLUDE A 140425Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC WITH A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE
EVIDENT. A 140509Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 35-KNOT WINDS AND NUMEROUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP
NEAR 1004MB. A 14/01Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
WARM CORE WITH A +2C TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES LAGGING A BIT DUE TO THE DIURNAL WANING OF DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 01S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED SOUTH. THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH
OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN
SOUTHWARD THEN RE-CURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE (UKMO, NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, GFS AND ECMWF) IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 70 KNOTS AS IT NEARS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
TAU 120. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
132351Z NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 140000).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.5S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.1S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.8S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.9S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE (WESTWARD AND POLEWARD)
VENTING ALOFT. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, EVIDENT IN NUMEROUS IMAGES OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 45 KNOTS
DESPITE A SOMEWHAT WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ANJA IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE CENTER
TO THE EAST. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY ERODE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH NEAR DAY 4 AND WILL INITIATE RECURVATURE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE DUE TO ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY THEREAFTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS ANJA BEGINS TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091115 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 70.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 70.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.1S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.7S 66.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.3S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.1S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 70.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM WAS LIKELY MUCH STRONGER THAN 45 KNOTS
AT 141800Z BASED ON A SLEW OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT INDICATED
INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING AN EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
MISREPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM. SINCE DEVELOPING A 16 NM EYE AT AROUND 142230Z THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW HAVE BECOME MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES. ACCORDINGLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.0
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FROM PGTW. IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY UNDERESTIMATE, THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IMMENSELY, WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEEPEN NEAR THE CENTER.
AND LASTLY, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. THE MOST CURRENT
MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS STALL IS A RESULT OF A NARROW
EXTENSION OF DEEP-LAYER RIDGING THAT HAS BUILT INTO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM FROM THE EAST, IN ADDITION TO THE COMPETING ASPECTS OF THE
DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PICK UP SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. NEAR TAU 72
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THIS RIDGE, AND WILL PROMOTE A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AND DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72. THE FORECAST TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THOUGH IT IS MUCH SLOWER IN THE
EARLIER TAUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT SLOW DOWN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091115 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.0S 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.7S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.4S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.0S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.1S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.2S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 01S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A 25 NM ROUND
EYE AND A 150 NM DIAMETER CORE OF INTENSE, DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED BY 50
KNOTS UNDER THESE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK
ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 (KNES) TO 102 KNOTS (PGTW, FMEE). TC
01S HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS STR IS SHIFTING FROM
A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION TO A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION DUE
TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH (NOW OVER MADAGASCAR).
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFDN, NOGAPS, TC-LAPS,
WBAR) SUPPORT A RE-CURVE SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING
AND UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS EARLY AS TAU 96. THE
UKMO AND THE GFS ARE THE OUTLIERS AND ARE TRACKING TC 01S MORE
WESTWARD TOWARD PORT LOUIS DESPITE INDICATING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION AS THE RE-CURVE MODELS. IN FACT, THE GFS AND UKMO MODELS
STEER THE SYSTEM PERPENDICULAR TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ARE
THEREFORE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST,
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091116 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.3S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.0S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.3S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.9S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.1S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 69.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANJA CONTINUES TO BE A VERY INTENSE SYSTEM
DESPITE THE FACT THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT IRREGULAR AND CLOUD-
FILLED. MORE RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO CLEAR. ACCORDINGLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
HELD AT 105 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A 5.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANJA CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE AND REORIENT THIS RIDGE
SUCH THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK PROGRESSIVELY POLEWARD INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS POSITIONED TO INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT
TERM DUE TO STRONG RADIAL VENTING ALOFT AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF AUSTRALIA. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU
36 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26C AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANJA
WILL CONSEQUENTLY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE. AFTER TAU 72
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS ANJA INTERACTS WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THE TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY GROUPED ABOUT THE CONSENSUS.
NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091116 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 68.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 68.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.3S 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.3S 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.7S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.2S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.1S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 32.4S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
160849Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT A VERY SMALL, AXISYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH
A 15-NM EYE AND UNIFORM RING OF SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION I.E.,
AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE
OUTER BANDING WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 102 KNOTS DESPITE SLIGHT COOLING
OF THE EYE TEMPERATURE WITH AUTOMATED DVORAKS AT 105 KNOTS. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ACCELERATION
BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE, DEEP TROUGH AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
DOES REFLECT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 48.
THIS FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT TAU 72/96 DUE TO
EXCESSIVE TRACK SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH WBAR, GFDN AND NOGAPS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS DUE
TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND, IN GENERAL, IS NOT EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO ITS ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER COOLER SST, LOWER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AFTER TAU 48
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091117 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.4S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.2S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.4S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 30.4S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 01S HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL (JUST OVER 60 NM IN DIAMETER)
BUT COMPACT SYMMETRY WITH ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE CURRENT
POSITION WAS EASY TO FIX WITH THE PRESENCE OF A PINHOLE EYE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0
FROM PGTW. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW OVERHEAD. TC ANJA IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
CRESTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 12, IT
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK OVER COLDER WATER AND SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS TRANSITION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS
STAGE, TC 01S WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE CYCLONE'S TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRA TROPICAL (ET) SYSTEM WITH FULL ET STATUS BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK FORECAST WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF GFS THAT IS SIGNI-
FICANTLY RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE FROM TAU 12. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z
AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091117 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 66.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 66.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.5S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 28.5S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC ANJA HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND LOST ITS PINHOLE EYE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME LOOSELY
ORGANIZED AND THE 170931Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAY BE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED TO THE WEST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE IN
CONCERT WITH POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (65-90 KNOTS)
AND FMEE (55-77 KNOTS). TC 01S IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, TC ANJA WILL ENCOUNTER MORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. FINALLY, AS BUOYS IN THE AREA ARE REPORTING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF APPROXIMATELY 26.0C, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK
OVER MORE UNFAVORABLE WATERS. BY TAU 24, TC 01S WILL START TO
INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AND IT WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A WEAK BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 36.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091118 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 67.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 67.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.3S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.2S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME SHEARED AND ELONGATED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT
POSITION WAS DETERMINED FROM THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND AIDED BY A
172059Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INTENSITY WAS DEDUCED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 01S HAS RECURVED TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND COMMENCED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND DECREASING. TC ANJA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHEAST,
WEAKEN AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 24. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING IS AT
181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20091118 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 67.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 67.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.5S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8S 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 12 HOURS AGO, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO BE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD, WAS ACTUALLY
FULLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED FURTHER TO THE WEST. ACCORDINGLY, THE
CURRENT FORWARD MOTION OF 14 KNOTS IS SLOWER THAN REPORTED AT
171800Z (REPORTED AS 20 KNOTS DUE TO ERRONEOUSLY CHASING THE
SYSTEM'S CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST) THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOW
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS (SUPPORTED BY A 180206Z QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTING 30-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS) IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
181200Z FORECAST INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS SINCE THE LLCC WAS FOUND TO
BE FULLY EXPOSED AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES INFLATED. TC ANJA IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACKING IN AN
AREA OF HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INTO A WEAK BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_anja_jtwc_advisories.htm
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