WTXS21 PGTW 20100127 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S 59.4E TO 22.2S 60.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 59.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S
58.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 59.6E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270211Z WINDSAT
PASS SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER TURNING, WITH
STRONGER CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW INDICATE A 35 KNOT LLCC, THOUGH WINDSAT AND LOWER
FREQUENCY MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE LLCC IS WEAKER AND STILL
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS
PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. IN
ADDITION, OUTFLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
UPSTREAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 61.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 61.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 21.6S 61.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 23.9S 61.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 26.3S 61.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 28.8S 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 32.9S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 38.8S 73.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 61.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 271713Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE AT LEAST 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A FEW
40 KNOT WIND BARBS PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
TC 11S PROVIDING GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER TC 11S ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW.
A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 11S IS CUR-
RENTLY HELPING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS WELL, ALLOWING FOR THE
RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE TEMPO-
RARY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER TC 11S AND HINDERS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.
THIS FORECAST HAS INTENSITY PEAKING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 AS
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TRANSITORY TROUGH PERSISTS. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TAU 24 AS A MID-LEVEL STR EXTENSION THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF TC 11S SLOWLY WEAKENS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF TC 11S AROUND TAU TAU
48, CAUSING FURTHER WEAKENING IN THE STR, AND HELPING TO TURN THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
START AROUND TAU 72 WITH COMPLETION BY TAU 96 AS TC 11S IS ABSORBED
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 270921Z JAN 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 58.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 58.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 23.1S 59.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 25.2S 59.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 27.9S 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 31.2S 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 37.7S 67.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATLEY 180 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH EVEN BETTER POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING TO THE EAST, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 11S IS HAMPERING
CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT AND ENABLE 11S TO RE-DEVELOP CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS. BY TAU 48, 11S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY TAU 72, 11S WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A WEAK BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS
IN LINE WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS
OFFERED BY THE UKMO AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100128 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 59.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 59.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 25.0S 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 27.1S 60.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 29.3S 62.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 32.2S 64.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
TC 11S. STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TC 11S AROUND THE CUT-
OFF LOW HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE CUTOFF LOW IS
SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD, AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION
OF TC 11S DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS NOT ADEQUATELY PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE OR ITS IMPACT ON TC 11S OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, SUGGESTS
THAT TC 11S WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A BAND OF
DEEPER CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD TOWARDS THE LLCC IN THE SOUTH-
WEST QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE POTENTIALLY INTRODUCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
COULD KEEP THE LLCC FROM STRENGTHENING AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU
36 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 11S AND THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST REORIENTS AND TRACKS
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 59.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 59.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 27.0S 60.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 29.0S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 31.2S 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED WEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 290324Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SOME SHALLOWER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTHWESTWARD
OF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION WHILE A 281400Z AMSU
TEMPERATURE CROSS-SECTION, WHICH DEPICTS THE WARM CORE HAS MOVED TO
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THAT A COLD CORE HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT, INDICATES
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BECOME MORE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE. NEVERTHELESS,
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND ENABLE TC 11S
TO RETAIN ITS SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE UNDER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100129 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 27.2S 60.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 60.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 29.2S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 31.4S 63.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 33.5S 65.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 60.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 291407Z
37 GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT TC 11S HAS MAINTAINED A
TIGHTLY WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDING STRUCTURE, AND CONFIRMS THAT THE
LLCC IS EXPOSED. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 290542Z ASCAT PASS
OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM POSITION
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS
TROPICAL IN NATURE, DESPITE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTER, BASED ON:
RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING A WEAK WARM MID LEVEL ANOMALY;
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATING A DEEP, MOIST ENVELOPE;
AND ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING A SYMMETRIC, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED WIND FIELD
TYPICAL OF A TC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. TC 11S SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILTY TC 11S MAY
DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH UKMO AND GFDN SHOWING THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY
TAU 12, AND NOGAPS AND GFS SHOWING THE SYSTEM COMPLETING ETT BY TAU
36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20100130 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z --- NEAR 28.9S 61.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 61.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 31.3S 63.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS AND IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONFIRMED BY A 291808Z SSMI ASCAT PASS, A 1.0 DATA-T DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, AND A 291406Z WINDSAT PASS. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING HAS MOVED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE TC, PROVIDING
LINKAGE TO THE MID-LATITUDES WHILE INHIBITING FORMATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM AS SOON AS 30/12Z,
MAKING REINTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 24 AND 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, SHY OF THE 26
DEGREES TYPICALLY REQUIRED FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE GAINING BAROCLINICITY.
HOWEVER, SINCE THE TC HAS ALREADY WEAKENED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS
A TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION CAN COMPLETE. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 11
FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_201011_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]