WTPS21 PGTW 20090216 21:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.6S 166.5E TO 21.6S 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.0S 165.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.5E
171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT HAS SEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN BANDING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
TOWARDS THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY A 161720Z AMSU-B PASS. THE LLCC
HAS REMAINED WELL DEFINED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS BUT MODERATE VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALLOWED THE LLCC TO REMAIN PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
BUT IMPROVING. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CAUSED BY A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH
EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SST IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 165.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 165.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 22.9S 163.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 26.2S 161.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 29.8S 160.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 33.5S 162.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 164.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY 
INDICATES IMPROVING CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161824Z WINDSAT PASS INDICATES TIGHT 
BANDING WRAPPING ABOUT THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE 
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CAUSED BY A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NORTHWEST OF THE 
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH
EXPANDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. 
SST IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 15P WILL TRACK 
AROUND A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS WEAKENING ON ITS 
WESTERN FLANK AND WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT FROM A 
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK. CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND A FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TC 15P TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 
TAU 36 THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH 
TC 15P. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, 
NAVMARFCSTCEN 162121Z FEB 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTPS21 PGTW 162130) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090217 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (INNIS) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 23.1S 163.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 163.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 26.2S 162.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 29.8S 161.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 33.6S 162.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 163.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (INNIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS A WEAK AND SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH WHAT NOW
APPEARS TO BE ONLY A LIMITED TIMEFRAME FOR FURTHER INTENSIFI-
CATION BEFORE ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND APRF RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WITH INCREASED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND TAU 12 SEA SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL HEIGHTEN AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES ON
THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-
LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, AND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIGDE TO THE EAST, WILL SET UP STRONG NORTHERLIES
ALOFT, RAPIDLY STEERING THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND
181500Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20090218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (INNIS) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (INNIS) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 160.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 160.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 31.4S 159.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 35.8S 160.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 28.2S 160.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (INNIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME SHEARED
FROM THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION BY OVER 90 NM. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS TC 15P HAS INCREASED TRACK SPEED AND HAS MOVED INTO A REGION
OF UNFAVORABLE SST. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TC
15P HAS LEAD TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES HAS LED TO AN
ACCELERATION OF THE TRACK SPEED. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
IMPINGED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HALTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. BASED
ON THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASED SST, INCREASED
TRACK SPEED, AND THE DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING AS TC 15P CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO EVEN LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 11 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_innis_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]