WTXS21 PGTW 20090221 07:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 77.1E TO 16.2S 77.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 210600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 77.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 75.9E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOW PERSISTANT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210046Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND FMEE INDICATE A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION
TO FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD VENTING, THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAS ESTABLISHED A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
OPTIMIZING THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SHOULD FACILITATE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 220700Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 77.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 77.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 15.9S 77.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.3S 77.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 18.5S 76.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.9S 75.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 211608Z ASCAT PASS
AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM JTWC, KNES, AND FMEE ALL
INDICATE A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A
NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AN EXTENSION
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERN TRACK. AT LATER TAUS THE RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND TURN TC 16S TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
HELPING TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A
TRANSITING MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 16S HELPING
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 24 THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND AS TC 16S TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
IT WILL BEGIN TO HINDER THE SYSTEMS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FROM TAU 24 TO
TAU 48 INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW OVER TC 16S AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210700Z
FEB 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210700)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090222 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 15.9S 78.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 78.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.2S 78.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 18.4S 77.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.5S 76.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 20.6S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 78.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED TO NEAR
50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS ALOFT
HAVE FACILITATED CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, COMBINED WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS A NEAR-STATIONARY LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HEIGHTEN AND INITIATE
GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 24. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH WILL VOID AGCRESSIVE WEAKENING THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTH
TO SOUTH-WESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS.
THIS FORECAST LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNI-
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 78.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 78.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 19.9S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 21.3S 76.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 22.4S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 23.2S 74.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 78.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH-
SOUTH EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS ONLY MARGINALLY
INCREASED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. INCREASED INTERACTION WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 16S HAS DECREASED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUAD-
RANT OF TC 16S. POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN GOOD FOR THE
SUSTAINMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM, HOWEVER INCREASED VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TC 16S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ARE HELPING TO INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 16S IS TRACKING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090223 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 78.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 78.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.5S 77.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 21.7S 76.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 22.8S 74.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 24.4S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 78.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD VENTING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
BUILDS TO THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES,
AND FMEE, RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS, REFLECT THIS WEAKENING.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN FIXES AMONG
REPORTING AGENCIES, THOUGH A 230014Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE GIVES
GOOD INDICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL POSITION 6 HOURS PRIOR. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD TOWARDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING
STEERING RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS TC HINA NEARS THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH, BUT SUSTAINED
POLEWARD OUFLOW AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET
RAPID WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 77.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 77.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 21.2S 76.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 22.3S 75.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 23.9S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS WEAKENING 
TREND IS REFLECTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, 
AND FMEE WHICH RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. POSITION CONFIDENCE HAS 
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT POSITION BASED 
UPON A 231703Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
IN FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE CYCLONE WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-
BUILDING STEERING RIDGE WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING 
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TC 16S 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH BY TAU 36.  
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS 
AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090224 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HINA) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 76.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 76.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 20.5S 75.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 76.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RESTRICTED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS WEAKENING 
TREND IS REFLECTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, 
AND FMEE WHICH RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS 
GOOD AND IS BASED UPON A 232325Z 37H TRMM IMAGE DEPICTING A FULLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS THE SYSTEM HAS 
WEAKENED, THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STORM HAS SHIFTED TO THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A 
PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM WILL 
CONTINUE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND 
ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
AT 240000Z IS 19 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_hina_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]