Updated: 17 June 2020
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[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GAEL : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20090202 07:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 68.1E TO 16.2S 63.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 020630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 67.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S
69.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS
IS CONFIRMED BY A 020152Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS AN IMPROVED
LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPROVING DUE TO A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER, AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST AND
FURTHER ENHANCE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. OVERALL, THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED, HOWEVER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THESE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030700Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090202 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.5S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.0S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.8S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 66.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUFFICIENTLY-CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSIVE, YET MODERATELY
SHEARED, AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. MORE RECENTLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS SLACKENED ALLOWING CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LLCC. AS A RESULT, SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW NOW REFLECT A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. A
021323Z QUICKSCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A 35 KNOT SYSTEM AS WELL. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE, IN ADDITION
TO A 021726Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AS WELL,
WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITHIN
FAVORABLE SEAS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL AIDS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 020651Z FEB 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020700 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090203 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 64.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 64.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.5S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.8S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.8S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 64.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE. TS 13S LIES
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF TS
13S IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HOLD
INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS TS 13S NEARS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY MORE
RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090203 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 62.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 62.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.1S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.4S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.5S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.5S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 62.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MORE RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
REBUILD NEAR A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BRINGING ALL
REPORTINGFIX AGENCIES BACK TO A FINAL-T OF 2.5 OR 35 KNOTS. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR CONTINUES TO BIAS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT AND HAS LIMITED SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY GAINS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL FLOW WHILE
MAKING MODEST INTENSITY GAINS, AT LEAST INITIALLY. BEYOND 24 HOURS,
UPPER LEVEL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS RELAX NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING FOR
MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE ESSENTIALLY
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
OUTLIERS, NAMELY GFDN AND NOGAPS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY (RELATIVE TO THE CONSENSUS) TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
OUTLIERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.9S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.1S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 60.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 040326Z SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 13S HAS MOVED CLOSER TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SLOWLY
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF LOW
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THIS GENERAL TRACK
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48. DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE ACROSS VERY WARM WATER WILL FUEL INTENSI-
FICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, PARTICULARY BEYOND TAU 12.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090204 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.1S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.2S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.4S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.1S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 58.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 041756Z TMI COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND MOTION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM 67083 AND 61995 INDICATE EASTERLY TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILT OVER MADAGASCAR.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER MADAGASCAR AND WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING TC 13S TO BEGIN
RE-CURVING. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY UP TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 57.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 57.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.0S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.6S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.5S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 56.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A 050314Z
SSMI IMAGE SHOWS THIS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STORM POSITION AND MOTION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS AND A 050243Z QSCAT IMAGE DEPICTING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS NEAR THE
CENTER. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER MADAGASCAR AND WILL
WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING TC 13S TO BEGIN RE-CURVING. THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY UP TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT DIFFER THEREAFTER ON THE TIMING OF
RECURVATURE. NOGAPS DEPICTS THE EARLIEST TURN POLEWARD, AND GFS
TAKES THE SYSTEM THE FURTHEST WEST BEFORE TURNING IT SOUTH. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH
THE EGRR TRACKER AND SEEMS TO DEPICT THE LIKLIEST TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR
FOR RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090205 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.6S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.9S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WITH A BANDING EYE AND OVERALL SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 051548Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12-
HOUR MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO RE-
CURVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
MADGASCAR. THIS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE AN ENHANCED
NORTHWESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING INFLUENCE AS WELL AS AN
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-
CURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS
WHICH INDICATE A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED BY TAU 24. BASED ON A
NUMBER OF FACTORS INCLUDING THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE, CHIPS AND STIPS
GUIDANCE, AND EXPECTED IMPROVEMENTS IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT PER DAY RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 18.5S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.9S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WITH A BANDING EYE AND OVERALL SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 051548Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 12-
HOUR MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO RE-
CURVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
MADGASCAR. THIS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE AN ENHANCED
NORTHWESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING INFLUENCE AS WELL AS AN
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RE-
CURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS
WHICH INDICATE A DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED BY TAU 24. BASED ON A
NUMBER OF FACTORS INCLUDING THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE, CHIPS AND STIPS
GUIDANCE, AND EXPECTED IMPROVEMENTS IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT PER DAY RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.2S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. TC 13S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO 100 KNOTS SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO IMPROVED SURFACE CONSOLIDATION AND ENHANCED
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS IMPROVEMENT IS EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH
FURTHER DEFINTION OF A WELL ESTABLISHED 15 NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND 06-HOUR MOTION WHICH ARE
CONFIRMED BY A 060930Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTING A SYMMETRIC, TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
102 KNOTS AND AN AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 99 KNOTS.
TC 13S CURRENTLY SLOWING AND BEGINNING TO MIGRATE POLEWARD, AND IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER MADGASCAR. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
PROVIDE AN ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING
INFLUENCE AS WELL AS AN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE CONSENSUS OF THOSE AIDS WHICH INDICATE A FURTHER DECREASE IN
TRACK SPEED BY TAU 12, AND INTENSIFICATION TO 125 KTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS
23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW 061500) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED//
WTXS31 PGTW 20090207 03:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 51.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 51.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.0S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.1S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 51.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 6-HOUR DVORAK INTENSITY TREND INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED TO NEAR 120 KNOTS. A RAGGED 25 NM EYE
IS ALSO VISIBLE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS PROJECTED
TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE WHILE INTENSIFYING. DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL FACILITATE
THIS INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY
NEAR TAU 24 AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND
080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
UPDATED REFERENCE MANOP (WTXS32) FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S IN REMARKS
SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090207 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 51.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 51.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.9S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.4S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A RESULTANT LOSS OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAVE WEAKENED TC
13S TO AN ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. A 32 NM EYE WAS
APPARENT IN A 071130Z MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGE DESPITE THE
REDUCED CONVECTION. TC 13S IS TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEAKNESS AND TOWARD THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, THE INTRODUCTION OF
A MIDLATITUDE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN,
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW TC 13S TO REMAIN VERY INTENSE THROUGHOUT ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 012
WTXS31 PGTW 20090208 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 52.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 52.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.6S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.8S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.2S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.4S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WHILE TRACKING
POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENING TO THE WEST OF MADAGASCAR. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS AIDED OUTFLOW AND STEADIED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY, BUT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SYSTEM, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND INITIATE
A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
DROP THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD FURTHER FACILITATING
WEAKENING. INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN
BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS WITH THE CYCLONE COMPLETING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITIONING PRIOR TO TAU 48 AS A VERY STRONG SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090208 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.0S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.7S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.8S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS INITIATED A
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE STILL EXHIBITED A 16 NM
DIAMETER EYE IN RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGEREY. TC 13S IS
ACCELERATING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF A MIDLATITUDE AIRMASS BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24, AND
THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
THE TC 13S TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH AS IT COMPLETES THIS
TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 014
WTXS31 PGTW 20090209 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 54.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.5S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 55.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-
SOUTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. DESPITE REMAINING AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, A RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS GAEL TRANSITIONS INTO A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS HEDGES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
1800Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE DUE TO THE INITIATION
OF RAPID WEAKENING AS EVIDENT IN MORE RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD
OF A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS THRESHOLD, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO
NEAR 50 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090209 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 29.8S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.8S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.9S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 33.4S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 30.3S 58.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 13S IS TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES, PLUS THE INTRODUCTION OF A
MIDLATITUDE AIRMASS BY THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST, HAVE INDUCED THE
FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC
13S WILL TRACK INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND FULLY
TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PROVIDING DYNAMIC SUPPORT. FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN UNTIL AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090210 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 32.0S 61.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0S 61.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.2S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.4S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 32.6S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TC 13S
HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND
SPEED AND POSITION ARE BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW
AND FMEE AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY TRACKED INTO AN AREA OF
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD CORE SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_gael_jtwc_advisories.htm
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