WTXS21 PGTW 20090206 01:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 115.0E TO 16.1S 110.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 060100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 114.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
116.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION DESPITE MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 052257Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONV-
ECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM SST, AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 070130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 113.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 113.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 15.9S 111.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 15.9S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.0S 109.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 16.2S 107.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 112.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH A 061212Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN
IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WARM SST, AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND A 060957Z QSCAT PASS
DEPICTING UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF
DETRIMENTAL SHEAR AND OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060121Z FEB
09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 060130). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090207 03:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 16.2S 111.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.3S 110.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 16.6S 108.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 17.2S 105.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 112.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED A MARGINAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF RANGING
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING VERY LITTLE DUE TO SUSTAINED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED MANOP HEADER
(WTXS32).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090207 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 112.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 112.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 16.3S 110.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 16.6S 108.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 17.0S 106.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 17.4S 104.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 111.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 14S TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). REANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
NECESSITATED AN SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE 00Z POSITION
REPORTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING, INDICATING A SLOWER FORWARD
TRACK SPEED. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE HAS SINCE BEGUN ACCELERATING
WESTWARD, CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECAST REASONING. TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE
CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSETS THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND
STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG ALL MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 004    
WTXS32 PGTW 20090207 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 004    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 111.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 111.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 16.2S 109.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.6S 107.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 17.2S 105.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 17.9S 103.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO 
INTENSIFY DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH ALL 
REPORTING FIX AGENCIES LOGGING A FINAL-T OF 3.0 OR 45 KNOTS. THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED BENEATH A 
DENSE CIRRUS CANOPY MAKING INITIAL POSITIONING DIFFICULT. 
HOWEVER, 6-HOUR PERSISTENCE, POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF, 
AND A 071414Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGEST WITH A FAIR DEGREE 
OF CERTAINTY THAT THE LLCC IS BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF 
THE SHEARED CONVECTION. FREDDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS IN FAVORABLE WATERS AND UNDER INCREASED POLEWARD 
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DAMPEN
SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD 
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING 
RIDGE, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL 
DROP BELOW THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS THRESHOLD AROUND TAU 36, AND 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO SLACKEN. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) 
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090208 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 109.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 109.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 16.7S 107.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 17.4S 105.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 18.1S 103.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 18.8S 101.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 108.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED STEADILY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AIDED BY PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE. THIS INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED DESPITE
PERSISTENT, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE
PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED POLEWARD
OF THE CYCLONE. TS 14S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 14S AFTER
TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090208 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 107.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 107.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 17.4S 105.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 18.2S 103.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 19.0S 101.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 19.7S 99.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 107.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO
45 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTERROGATION AND DVORAK INTENSITY
FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF BOTH REPORTING A 45 KNOT SYSTEM.
TC FREDDY HAS WEAKENED DUE TO FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND SUSTAINED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD EASE TEMPORARILY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH, BUT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL REINVIGORATE MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW SUSTAINABLE LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD, AS WELL,
INITIATING A PRONOUNCED DISSIPATION TREND. ALL THE WHILE TC
FREDDY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AT NEAR 10 KNOTS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090209 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 105.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 105.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 19.3S 103.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 20.1S 101.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 20.8S 98.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 105.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 14S IS TRACKING
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
INDUCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER ARE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLY HIGH AS ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090209 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 19.3S 103.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 103.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 20.2S 101.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 20.5S 98.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 102.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FREDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH HAS BECOME PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. CURRENT CENTRAL WIND SPEED IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM A 091019Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 091512Z AMSU
PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14S REMAINS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERA-TURES.
THESE FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_freddy_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]