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[Index] | Tropical Cyclone FANELE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS22 PGTW 180530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171851Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 171900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 20.8S 42.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180430Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 42.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6S
42.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC, CDO-LIKE FEATURE. AN 180334Z SSMIS COLOR
IMAGE ALSO INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH MUCH IMPROVED DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE HIGH, NEAR 30C AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE RAPID
CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 190530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 53.8E.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.8S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.2S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.0S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.2S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 41.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. AN 18/1927Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
WINDS OF 30-35 KTS AT THE SYSTEM'S CENTER. TC 09S IS IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND MAY BE BEGINNING TO
FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF TC 08S, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 535 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO TC 08S, WHICH WILL
TRACK SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT, THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH TC 08S
GREATLY INCREASES THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WILL PROVIDE A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION THOUGH
TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
180521ZJAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 180530)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090119 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 41.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 41.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.0S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.2S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.8S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 41.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 09S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A POSSIBLE EYE. A 191058z AMSR-E
IMAGE DEPICTS A PINPOINT MICROWAVE EYE AS WELL AS EXCELLENT CONV-
ECTIVE BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 09S HAS TRACKED SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER A WEAK FINGER OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO TC 08S. AFTER
TAU 12-24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH AFRICA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TC 09S IS NOW
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL INTERACTION POSSIBLE WITH TC 08S NEAR
20/00Z AS THE SYSTEMS APPROACH WITHIN 430 NM WHICH MAY SLIGHTLY
AFFECT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF BOTH STORMS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND
201500Z. REFER TO TC 08S (ERIC) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 41.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 41.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.5S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.3S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 41.8E.
A 191530Z CORIOLIS WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE, WITH THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A BUDDING VISIBLE EYE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 12Z
TO 18Z SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS, WITH THE 1800Z POSITION BEING A COMPROMISE AMONG
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMMM, AND MORE SO THE
191530Z WINDSAT, AND A LATER 191621Z SSMI IMAGE. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM FMEE AND PGTW INDICATE A 60 TO 65 KNOT
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH PUSHES PAST THE
SYSTEM. TO A LESSER EXTENT INTERACTION WITH TC 08S WILL ALSO
FACILITATE SUCH MOTION. AFTER TAU 12 RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD TO THE
NORTH OF TC 09S FORCING THE SYSTEM WELL-INLAND BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY DEGRADE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
MADAGASCAR. PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 80 KNOTS DUE TO SUSTAINED DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND WARM SEAS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 42.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 42.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.9S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.3S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.5S 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.2S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 42.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT
O8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL IMAGERY AND A 200456Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF MOZAMBIQUE. THIS TRACK IS
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH TC 08S LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGSCAR. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE IT
RECURVES SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS RECURVATURE WILL
DRAG THE SYSTEM INTO LAND, CAUSING IT TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 43.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 43.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.7S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.2S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.9S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.8S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 43.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST AT O6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEGRADATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN SHORE OF MADAGASCAR.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES INDICATE
THAT SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT HAS PLATEAUED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 201606Z
SSMI MICROWAVE PASS WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITHIN WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 09S IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
BEFORE IT CURVES SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TRACK OVER LAND WILL SEVERELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CAUSING IT TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.1S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.0S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.5S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 27.4S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 44.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
O6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR AND ITS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE SHRUNK. CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210444Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS
WITH A VERY HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TC 09S REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM BEFORE
IT EXITS INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AFTER TAU 24. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG A SOUTHWESTERN PROTRUSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC
09S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND AND ALSO AS IT MOVES OVER
WATER INTO AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
SPEED UP AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z
AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 23.1S 46.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 46.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.0S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.1S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.0S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.7S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 46.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WEAKENING WHILE TRANSITING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 211716Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 09S REMAINS IN AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH LAND INTERACTION, IS BEGINNING TO
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE ACCELERATING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY AFTER MOVING
OVER WATER NEAR TAU 12, AND THEN IS EXPECTED WEAKEN AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z AND 222100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 48.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 48.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 26.9S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.3S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 31.4S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BRIEFLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT INCREASED INTERACTION WITH A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW TC 09S TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSISTION BY TAU 24. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE
ACCELERATING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20090122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 27.3S 51.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S 51.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 29.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 52.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (FANELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSISTION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 10 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_fanele_jtwc_advisories.htm
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