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Tropical Cyclone ERIC : JTWC Advisories
Season 2008-2009 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone ERIC Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20090117 19:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 54.3E TO 17.2S 51.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 53.8E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S
55.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 53.8E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM, WHILE A 17/1627Z
SSMI/S PASS INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED CLOSER TO AND HAS
BEGUN WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090118 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171851Z JAN 09//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 51.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 51.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 18.0S 50.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 19.4S 49.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 21.1S 48.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.6S 48.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 50.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTH-
ERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 181017Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 08S
IS RELATIVELY SMALL WITH A RADIUS OF ABOUT 120 NM BUT IS WELL-
ORGANIZED DESPITE SOME INTERACTION WITH LAND. AN 180518Z ASCAT
IMAGE INDICATED A SYMMETRIC CORE OF 30-35 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AND
ALSO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 30-35 KNOTS AS WELL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND STORM MOTION BASED ON THE DEFINED SIGNATURE OF
THE LLCC. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LAND
INTERACTION AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 171851Z
JAN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 171900).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090119 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 49.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 49.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 19.2S 49.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 20.9S 49.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.7S 49.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 25.2S 50.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 49.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (ERIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS, AND INTERACTION WITH LAND MAYBE BE
TEMPORARILY BE HINDERING INTENSIFICATION. TC 08S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD PARALLELING THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AS TC
08S TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. SOME FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TC 09S, WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 535 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE PRESENCE OF TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A DEVIATION IN THE
POLEWARD TRACK FOR TC 08S; HOWEVER, IT COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(NINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090119 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 19.0S 49.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 49.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 21.2S 49.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 23.3S 49.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 25.6S 50.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 28.6S 52.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (ERIC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A FULLY-EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, TC 08S HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO INTER-
ACTION WITH LAND AND HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM 670950 INDICATED 20-25 KNOT SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM PASSED ABOUT 5 NM EAST AT 19/07Z AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 993 MB.
BASED ON THE MINIMUM SLP AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE 12-HOUR MOTION. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST AND THEN WILL TURN MORE SOUTH-
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSITORY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AS TC
08S TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION. REDUCED
INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ALSO FAVOR LIMITED STRENGTHENING
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THIS TIME, TC 08S WILL TRACK INTO STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER COOLER SST, WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. SOME FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TC 09S, WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 500 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE PRESENCE OF TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A DEVIATION
IN THE POLEWARD TRACK FOR TC 08S; HOWEVER, IT COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON THE TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090120 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 21.1S 49.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 49.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 23.3S 49.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 25.6S 50.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 28.5S 51.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 49.2E.
TC 08S HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO SUSTAINED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS INTERACTION WITH TC
09S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE 2 SYSTEMS ARE NOW LESS THAN
400 NM APART -- WELL WITHIN THE THRESHOLD FOR DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION. HOWEVER THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE ON TC 08S BEYOND SUSTAINING AN ALREADY WEAK
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS A MINIMAL CYCLONE WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS REINFORCED BY SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE RANGING FROM 30
TO 35 KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AHEAD
OF THE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE LESS VULNERABLE TO WEAKENING BY THE OTHER CYCLONE
AND LAND, AND WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER IN-
CREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND 27S SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, WHICH WILL AGAIN PROMOTE WEAK-
ENING AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL (XT) TRANSITIONING. THE CYCLONE WILL
COMPLETE XT TRANSITIONING WITHIN 12 HOURS, BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20090120 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (ERIC) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 24.3S 49.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 49.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 26.9S 49.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 29.6S 51.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 49.4E.
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, TC 08S
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND REMNANT CONVECTIVE BANDS ASYMMETRICAL. INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A 35-KNOT CENTRAL WIND SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC
08S IS TRACKING RAPIDLY ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE BARO-
CLINIC ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (FANELE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_eric_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017