WTXS21 PGTW 20081119 08:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 77.8E TO 11.4S 87.4E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
190800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2S
78.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 78.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 78.4E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
VERY SMALL, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WEST
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. A 190247Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO
SUPPORTS A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BUT WEAK DEEP CONV-
ECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE, MAXIMUM SUST-
AINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 200830Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081119 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 9.7S 79.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 79.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 9.6S 82.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 9.5S 85.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 9.7S 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 9.9S 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 80.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 03S
HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REACHING 2.5/2.5 (PGTW AND FMEE)
AND 2.0/2.0 (KNES). THE TRACK FOR TC 03B HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY
INFLUENCED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ITERACTION WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW TO THE
NORTH. POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE SST'S WILL STIFFLE STRONG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 190821Z NOV 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 190830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180921Z NOV 08//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 9.8S 83.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 83.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 9.8S 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 9.8S 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 9.9S 93.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 10.2S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
WEST OF COCOS HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS HINDERED
INTENSITY GAINS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON
A 200102Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED, AND 40 KNOT
FLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD,
BUT AT A FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED SPEED. THIS INCREASE
IN TRACK SPEED IS A FUNCTION OF PERSISTENCE AND A BUILDING ISOTACH
MAXIMUM AT THE 700 MB STEERING LEVEL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
MODEL AIDS IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNREALISTIC EGRR AND
GFDN SOLUTIONS THAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD INTO THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20081120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERNARD) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 11.1S 89.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 89.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.8S 93.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 15.6S 98.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASED INTERACTION WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM HAS DOMINATED THE STEERING INFLUENCES FOR TC 03S. THEY
HAVE LED TO A CONTINUED INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED POLEWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL NEAR EQUA-
TORIAL RIDGE WHICH HAS LED TO A DECOUPLING OF THE CONVECTION AND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DECREASING SST'S HAS WEAKENED TC 03S.  THE REMINANTS OF THE LLCC
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST, AND DUE TO THE CONTINUED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TC 03S IS TRACKING INTO, REDEVELOPMENT IS
UNLIKELY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ANIKA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_bernard_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]