Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080212 11:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 15.2S 120.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 120.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15.2S 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY
550 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 120929Z
SSMI IMAGE. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE
OF THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO AID VORTEX SPIN-UP. ADDITIONALLY,
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO USHER IN BOTH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED
ON THE IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 131100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121051Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.1S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.4S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 120.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN BOTH DECREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 19S IS EXP-
ECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER AFTER TAU 48
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ALLOWING THE STORM TO BEGIN TRACKING IN A GEN-
ERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INCREASING SPEED. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 121051Z FEB 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 121100) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND
132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.8S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.2S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.7S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.3S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S REMAINS IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BUT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE STEER-
ING INFLUENCE OF A SLIGHTLY MORE DOMINANT NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. A SECOND STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE STORM FROM
THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM WILL TURN POLEWARD IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND RIDGE AND SLOWLY
ACCELERATE AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS LEFT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 19S PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AND LIMITED INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, AS THE STORM BEGINS
TO MOVE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLY HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.6S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.3S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.8S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 131726Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK IN A
COMPETING STEERING SCENARIO BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION,
ESPECIALLY BEYOND TAU 48; HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY AFFECT THE FORECAST TRACK.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LLCC
WILL LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND ENHANCE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUED INTENSI-
FICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.9S 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6S 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.1S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.7S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.7S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 120.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS CANOPY RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN OUR INITIAL POSITION. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER AND THE OVERALL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS FURTHER
WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHARPER THAN ANTICIPATED
LOOP OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 120.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 120.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.4S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.3S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.5S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 120.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO
THE EAST. A 141716Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.
HOWEVER, ECMWF FIELDS POSITION THE BREAK FURTHER WEST THAN OTHER
AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS CREATING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE GFDN
ALSO SHOWS THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO, WHICH BRINGS THE STORM FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 119.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 119.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.0S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.9S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 119.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS, SINCE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STORM HAS
TRACKED WITH A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT INSTEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK WHICH WAS FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STORM HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE PAST 12-HOUR
MOTION HAS ALSO CAUSED A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST,
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFDN AND ECMWF TRACKERS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND
160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 118.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.1S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.4S 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.6S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 118.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440
NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST OF
PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 48. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, ECMWF AND GFDN REMAIN THE WESTERN MOST
OUTLIERS AND INDICATE A TRACK FURTHER WEST. THIS FORECAST REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.6S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.6S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.2S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 118.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONTINUED GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY
100 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH NEAR TAU 48. THIS DIFFERS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHICH SUPPORTED LANDFALL CLOSER TO PORT
HEDLAND. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SUR-
FACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE
STORM MAKES LANDFALL AT WHICH POINT THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
HOWEVER GFDN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TRACK FURTHER WEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.8S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.8S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.9S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.0S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 118.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST MAKING LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH NEAR TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AT WHICH POINT THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z
AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.8S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.9S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.5S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND UNFAVORABLY HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE
STORM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH AND WIND SHEAR CONSEQUENTLY DECREASES.
THE STORM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
TAU 72. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z, AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.6S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.5S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.7S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.0S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.5S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 117.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK GEN-
ERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD TOWARD THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL, SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANITCYCLONE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THIS DECREASING SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD INDUCE SLOW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LAND
INTERACTION BEGINS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
STORM WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TWO FORECASTS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN
THE ANTICIPATED EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z,
170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 117.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.6S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.6S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.8S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.1S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND
TAU 48. AFTER THAT, TC 19S WILL BEGIN WEAKENING OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. FROM TAU 48, THE AIDS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE AS THE MODELS POSITION THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DIFFERENTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS
34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.4S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.4S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.6S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.7S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 115.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE RECENT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN WESTWARD,
THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS THE STORM OVER WATER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING
THE STORM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER COMPETING INFLUENCES
OF GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIG-
NIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION, GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND OB-
SERVATIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080217 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.1S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.1S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.3S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.0S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 115.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S IS TRACKING AROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
POLEWARD TOWARD THE AXIS OF A UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION. LAND INTERACTION
AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL REVERSE THE INTENSIFICATION TREND
AFTER TAU 36. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TRACK FORECAST, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLIER LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR LEARMONTH CANNOT YET BE DISCOUNTED.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080217 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.8S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.7S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.9S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.8S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 114.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S IS TRACKING AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A WEAK-
NESS IN THE RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO GREATER THAN PREVIOUS-
LY EXPECTED POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND UNFAVORABLY HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS
THE STORM MOVES POLEWARD IT WILL APPROACH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A
REDUCTION IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 36, THE STORM CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
LAND AND BEGIN WEAKENING. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY TO THE
TRACK FORECAST. THUS, THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLIER THAN FORECASTED
LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR LEARMONTH REMAINS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080217 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 114.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 114.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.0S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.0S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.1S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.2S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.9S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 114.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S IS TRACKING AROUND THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY HAS REMAINED CONSTANT
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT MOVES POLEWARD INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR LOCATED ON THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER
TAU 36, THE STORM CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT
INTERACTS WITH LAND AND AGAIN BEGINS EXPERIENCING HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTEN-
SITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.4S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.3S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.4S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.5S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 113.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY HAS
REMAINED CONSTANT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INF-
LUENCES OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLU-
ENCE AND HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE TC 19S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER TAU 72 HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST PAST THAT POINT. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080218 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 113.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 113.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.9S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.8S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.6S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 25.6S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 113.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. METSAT IMAGERY INDICATE
A CIRRUS CANOPY WHICH IS MASKING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE DAMPIER,
AUSTRALIA RADAR IMAGERY. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A
WEAKNESS LOCATED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY HAS REMAINED CONSTANT
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH NORTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH
WILL INFLUENCE TC 19S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080218 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 21.3S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.2S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.2S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.4S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.9S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 113.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES
A CIRRUS CANOPY WHICH IS MASKING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON THE LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA RADAR IMAGERY. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TOWARD A
WEAKNESS LOCATED WEST OF AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND HIGH NORTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO PERSISTENT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL INFLUENCE TC 19S
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z,
190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080218 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 20.9S 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.7S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.5S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.3S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.3S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.9S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 113.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CAPE OF AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE
LEARMONTH SITE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LEARMONTH INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 995 MB.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED PROXIMITY TO LAND
AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
WARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC
19S WILL LIKELY STEER MORE UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL STR WHICH IS FORE-
CAST TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING SYSTEM BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN ONTO A MORE SOUTH-
WESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK OVER LOWER SST AND LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO OUTLIERS, THE
UKMO AND TC-LAPS, WHICH INDICATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (IVAN) FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080219 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 21.6S 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.5S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.5S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.6S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 26.2S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 113.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND
RADAR (LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA) SHOW ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WITH
THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND TURN ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS IT
BEGINS TO STEER ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS TRACKER
WHICH SHOW AN ERRONEOUS WESTWARD TRACK STARTING AT TAU 0. ADD-
ITIONALLY, TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND ADDITIONAL MODEL PROBLEMS WHICH
ARE SLOWING THE CONSENSUS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IVAN)
FINAL WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 22.1S 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.2S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.4S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.5S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.3S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.9S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 113.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR
(LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA) SHOW ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WITH
THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND TURN ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AS IT BEGINS TO STEER ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS OF THE CONSENSUS HAVE BEGUN TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080219 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.6S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.6S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.5S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 26.3S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.9S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 113.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT
IMAGERY AND RADAR (LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA) SHOW ASYMMETRIC LOW
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE NORTH-
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAKENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW EN-
HANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT
SHOULD TURN ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS IT BEGINS TO STEER
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LAND INTER-
ACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE COME
BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
HOWEVER, AVNI AND ECMWF DEPICT UNREALISTIC TURNS TO THE WEST
AND EAST, RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY
TAU 72 IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 23.1S 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.1S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.1S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 25.8S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 26.1S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.4S 113.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND
RADAR DATA DEPICT A SLOWLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST
OF AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. A 191736Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES WEAKENED CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN
TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT DIVERGE AS
THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
COOLER SST AND FURTHER LAND INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST IS CONSIST-
ENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS MODEL GUIDANCE
REFLECTING A SHARP WESTWARD TURN UNDER STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 24.4S 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 25.6S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.2S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 114.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
135 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA DEPICT A SYSTEM
THAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND
THEN TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT THEN DIVERGE AS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FURTHER LAND INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, EXCEPT THAT DISSIPATION OCCURS MORE
RAPIDLY DUE TO GREATER LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER WATER AFTER
DISSIPATION AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE, REGENERATION
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEXT WARNING AT 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080220 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NICHOLAS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 25.6S 114.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 114.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 26.7S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 114.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NICHOLAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA DEPICT A CONTINUED
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BASED UPON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, THE STORM IS
NOW BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
TAU 12. THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, BUT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_nicholas_jtwc_advisories.htm
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