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Tropical Cyclone LEE-ARIEL : JTWC Advisories
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone LEE-ARIEL Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20071114 16:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 91.9E TO 10.5S 88.6E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
141430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7S
91.6E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5S 91.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT
IN A 141109Z SSMI PASS. RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM VARIOUS REPORT-
ING AGENCIES AND SATELLITE WIND-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06
TO 12 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151630Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071114 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141621ZNOV07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE) WARNING NR 001 CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z --- NEAR 9.3S 91.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 91.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 9.9S 90.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 10.3S 88.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 10.4S 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 10.7S 86.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 90.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 03S HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REACHING 2.5/2.5 (PGTW) AND 3.0/3.0 (KNES AND APRF). THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED AS SEEN IN A 141622Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST-
WARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE END OF THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD, ALLOWING INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 48. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 141621ZNOV07
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 141630) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z AND 152100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED MISSING TEXT.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 90.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 90.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 11.5S 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 11.9S 88.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 12.2S 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 12.5S 86.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 90.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 03S HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REACHING 3.5/3.5 (PGTW, KNES, AND APRF). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE AS SEEN IN A PARTIAL 150407Z TRMM IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. GRADUAL IN-
TENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071115 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 89.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 89.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 13.1S 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 13.8S 87.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 13.9S 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 14.0S 84.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 03S HAS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND IN-
TENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REACHING 4.0/4.0 (PGTW, KNES AND APRF). THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AS SEEN IN A 151558Z AMSU IMAGE. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-
WARD THROUGH TAU 48. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYS-
TEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND LOW OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE WEBER BAROTROPIC MODEL IN THE NEAR TERM TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071116 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 11.9S 88.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 88.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 12.1S 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 12.4S 85.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 12.8S 84.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 13.3S 83.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 87.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE-ARIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
975 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 03S HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM
3.5/3.5 (FMEE) TO 4.0/4.0 (PGTW AND KNES). THE SYSTEM IS TRACK-
ING IN A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGING TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. TC 03S WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK MORE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, AS THE STR
BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW. AFTER THIS TIME, SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO
A DECREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTINUED LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071116 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE) WARNING NR 005 
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE 
--- 
WARNING POSITION: 
161800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 87.5E 
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS 
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM 
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE 
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 87.5E 
--- 
FORECASTS: 
12 HRS, VALID AT: 
170600Z --- 12.3S 86.6E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS 
--- 
24 HRS, VALID AT: 
171800Z --- 12.7S 85.7E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS 
--- 
36 HRS, VALID AT: 
180600Z --- 13.0S 84.7E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS 
--- 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 
48 HRS, VALID AT: 
181800Z --- 13.3S 83.4E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
--- 
REMARKS: 
162100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 87.3E. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 19 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 87.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 87.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 12.1S 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 12.5S 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 12.9S 85.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 13.2S 85.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE-ARIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
920 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A RECENT FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
BUT THE STORM CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE HINDERED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PRODUCING INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINAL
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS SLOWER AND ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF
THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071117 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 87.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 87.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 12.1S 86.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 12.4S 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 12.8S 85.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 13.1S 85.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE-ARIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171706Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 03S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH TAU 48. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT SO THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071118 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 86.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 86.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 12.5S 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 12.8S 86.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 13.0S 85.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 13.1S 85.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE-ARIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXERT COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE
AGAIN BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND INDUCES A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO BALANCE FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, KEEPING
STORM INTENSITY NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, IF TC 04S TO
THE NORTHWEST INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD, STRONG
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THAT SYSTEM MAY INDUCE STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS TC 03S THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN
DISSIPATION OF TC 03S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071118 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 87.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 87.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 13.9S 88.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 87.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (LEE-ARIEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 975 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
181611Z TRMM 85/37GHZ IMAGES INDICATE A WEAKENING, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT
60 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
PRODUCTS SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH OUTFLOW FROM TC 04S
IMPINGING ON AND HINDERING OUTFLOW OVER TC 03S. ADDITIONALLY, OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT REMAINS MARGINAL. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_lee-ariel_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017