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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GULA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone GULA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20080126 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 62.3E TO 14.9S 61.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0S 62.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT METSAT IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED BAND OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FLARE OVER THE CENTER. OBSERVATIONS AND A
261755 ASCAT INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE HAS ALSO MOVED OVER WARM
WATERS WITH FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080127 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262051Z JAN 08//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.6S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.3S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.8S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.3S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM WEST-
SOUTWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-
ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH A CIRRUS CANOPY. THE CANOPY HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS LOWERED THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR VALUES. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TC CAUSING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 12.
FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TC 14S TO
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHENING TROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 262051Z JAN
08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 262100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z
AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED
SPELLING IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080127 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.3S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.6S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.2S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 62.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 270954Z AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO ALIGN WITH AND FORM NEAR THE LLCC. THE STORM HAS EXPER-
IENCED DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION, AND IS CURRENTLY IN A
CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. THE STORM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AS WELL AS WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO THIS
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS IN TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.5S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.4S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.9S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 62.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY AND PGTW INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE TC 14S HAS STRENGTHENED WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT AS WELL AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DUE TO THIS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM WILL BEGIN A SOUTH-
WESTWARD TRACK AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. THIS FORECAST SHIFTS THE EXPECTED
TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 62.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 62.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.7S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.1S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 61.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. AN SSMI/S 281309Z PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC BUT A LACK OF EXTENSIVE
SPIRAL BANDING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
A RESULT OF AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT; HOWEVER, POLEWARD EXHAUST WILL BE
LIMITED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOME OF THE MODEL FIELDS HINT
AT AN INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 14S AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 13S EAST OF
MADAGASCAR NEAR TAU 48. IT IS ESTIMATED THE CIRCULATIONS WOULD BE
WITHIN 600 NM OF ONE ANOTHER AT THIS POINT, PROVIDED 13S IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT CROSSES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. IF A
VIABLE CIRCULATION REMAINS, THEN SOME INTERACTION IS INDEED A
POSSIBILITY BEYOND TAU 48, WITH 14S BEING THE DOMINANT CYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z AND 291500Z. REFER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.1S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.4S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.7S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 61.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282128Z
AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND INTENSIFY WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND A BANDING EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
DUAL OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 14S HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS TRACK-
ING ERRATICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRON-
MENT. CURRENT MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THIS SLOW MOVEMENT MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 12, BUT ALSO INDICATE THAT THE STEERING RIDGE EAST OF
TC 14S WILL STRENGTHEN BY TAU 24 AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO ACCEL-
ERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLOW INTENSIF-
ICATION WITH PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC
13S, WHICH JUST MOVED BACK OVER WATER EAST OF MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER
TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT
BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRON-
MENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.8S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.3S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.6S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 60.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291255Z
SSMI IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITH PEAK INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS. THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 13S
STILL EXISTS BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36, HOWEVER TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.
THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 60.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 60.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.6S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.3S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.4S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 60.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292146Z
AMSU IMAGE REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIM-
ATES RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, MAINLY SINGLE-CHANNEL, EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WITH RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DISPLACED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. REANALYSIS OF
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 29/0600Z TO 29/1200Z INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM PEAKED NEAR 102-115 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ANALYSIS.
TC 14S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. INTENSITY
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TC 13S STILL EXISTS BEGINNING NEAR TAU 36, HOWEVER TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIF-
ICANTLY IMPACTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.1S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.4S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.8S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 59.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301023Z AMSU IMAGE REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIM-
ATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, MAINLY SINGLE-CHANNEL, EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WITH RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 14S IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS FORECAST. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW. THE POSSIBILITY
OF INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 13S STILL EXISTS BEGINNING
NEAR TAU 24, HOWEVER TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT SYS-
TEM AND SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND
311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080131 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/WTXS32 PGTW 310300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 59.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 59.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.9S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.5S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.7S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.9S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 59.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY ALONG WITH PGTW AND
FMEE FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN TRACK SPEED AND
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED IS
DUE TO THE MIDLATTITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH TC 13S. THE WEAKENING WAS DUE TO THE COMPETING
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES OF THE TC 14S AND TC 13S. THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TC 13S PREVENTED MOST POLEWARD
OUTLFOW OF TC 14S. IN ADDITION, THIS UPPER LEVEL INTERACTION HAS
CONFINED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BANDING TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT STILL PERSISTS AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH TC 13S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL INTERACTION WITH TC 13S
SUBSIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND FAVORABLE WATERS WILL ALLOW TC 14S TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO EXCESSIVE UPPER LEVEL INTERACTION WITH
TC 13S AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ALSO INDICATE THIS CHANGE AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER. THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE TC 13S
STILL EXISTS THROUGH TAU 36 AND WILL MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FURTHER
IMPACTS TO TC 14S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080131 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.0S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.1S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.5S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.7S 57.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.3S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 14S HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AS IT IS BEING PULLED TOWARD TC 13S. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CLEARLY INDICATES THE SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND EACH OTHER IN A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TCS 13S AND 14S.
HOWEVER, TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, WHILE
13S IS EXPOSED. SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY DEEMED STRONGER, 14S IS FORECAST
TO BECOME THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION, WHILE 13S DISSIPATES DUE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND/OR BECOMES ABSORBED INTO 14S. THE DYNAMICAL
AIDS TRACKERS BEGIN TO FOLLOW THE SAME BROAD, MERGED VORTEX FOR BOTH
TCS 13S AND 14S AFTER ABOUT TAU 24. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHICH VORTEX WILL BE PRIMARY, THE MODELS DO CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A
REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
30S AROUND TAU 36. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR TC 14S TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF 13S, THEN
ENCOUNTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 36 AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ANY EVENT,
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST OF BOTH 13S AND 14S.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080201 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.0S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 55.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 30.3S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 32.3S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 55.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 14S HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT IS BEING PULLED TOWARD TC 13S. RECENT
METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY ROTATING CLOCKWISE
AROUND EACH OTHER IN A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TCS 13S AND 14S.
HOWEVER, TC 14S HAS MAINTAINED SOME CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DUE TO FURTHER CYCLONE INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 12, AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN INTERACT WITH TC 14S
CAUSING A RECURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TC 14S IS EXPECT TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH INCREASES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMICAL AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVENTUAL RECURVATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE FORECASTS OF BOTH
13S AND 14S. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z AND 020300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080201 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 26.4S 55.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 55.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.6S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 30.6S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF
TO THE SOUTH IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
JUST WEST OF TC 14S IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HIGHER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE LOWER AND UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION, A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
NOW EXPECTED. A DISSIPATION SCENARIO IS NOW BEING FORECAST VICE AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WHILE IT APPEARS THE MID LEVEL WARM CORE
MAY BE INCORPORATED INTO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS ARE NOT INITIALIZING THE DECOUPLING
BETWEEN THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ANY EVENT, THE STORM
IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24, REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER IT TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL OR NOT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20080102 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GULA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 29.5S 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 33.3S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 30.4S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GULA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS ACCELERATED. CURRENT
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. STRONGER INTERACTION
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ALLOWED THE STORM TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION VICE THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DISSIPATION
SCENARIO. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_gula_jtwc_advisories.htm
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