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Tropical Cyclone CELINA : JTWC Advisories
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone CELINA Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20071212 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 70.6E TO 14.8S 67.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 121800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 70.1E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
69.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 70.1E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 121714Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUST-
AINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132230Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122221Z DEC 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 68.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 68.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 14.9S 68.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 15.0S 67.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 15.0S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 15.1S 66.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06S HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS, REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES, 30 KNOTS FROM FMEE AND A 130107Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT
WINDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCES OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL AIDS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK,
HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE WBAR SOLUTION. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 122221ZDEC2007 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 122230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND
140900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071213 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 69.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 69.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 14.6S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 14.9S 68.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 15.1S 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 15.3S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 69.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A RELOCATION
OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE
CONSOLIDATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING LOCATION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
SLOWLY UNDER COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071214 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 003 
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE 
--- 
WARNING POSITION: 
140000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 69.4E 
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS 
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM 
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE 
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 69.4E 
--- 
FORECASTS: 
12 HRS, VALID AT: 
141200Z --- 13.7S 69.0E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS 
--- 
24 HRS, VALID AT: 
150000Z --- 13.8S 68.6E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS 
--- 
36 HRS, VALID AT: 
151200Z --- 14.0S 68.1E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS 
--- 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 
48 HRS, VALID AT: 
160000Z --- 14.4S 67.2E 
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT 
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY 
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
--- 
REMARKS: 
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 69.3E. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 69.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 69.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 14.7S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 15.3S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 15.9S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.4S 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO LEAVE THIS RELATIVELY WEAK ENVIRONMENT NEAR TAU 12 AND TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 06S WILL UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND EXPERIENCES IMPROVED OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z
AND 151500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 68.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 68.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 15.6S 68.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 16.3S 66.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 17.1S 65.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 17.9S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OUT
OF A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CONTINUE TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT, SHEARING THE MAJORITY OF DEEPEST CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW AND FMEE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
DESPITE LESS THAN FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BUT STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 67.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 67.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 16.5S 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 17.5S 64.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 18.5S 62.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.4S 61.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE TC CONTINUED TO BE STEERED BY
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CONTINUE TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT, SHEARING THE MAJORITY OF DEEPEST CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0/2.0 FROM PGTW AND 2.5/2.5 FROM FMEE SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS DESPITE LESS THAN FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S
WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, BUT
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH-
WEST ALLOWING THE STORM TO MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY BUT STILL BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
INTO UNFAVORABLE WATERS WITH MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND
DISSIPATE. THIS CHANGES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE PREVIOUS
WARNING TO THAT OF A DISSIPATION OVER WATER SCENARIO DUE TO UNFAVOR-
ABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND OHC. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS REFLECT THIS
CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z
AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071216 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 66.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 66.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 17.1S 64.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 18.0S 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.0S 61.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 65.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 152103Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS.
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S HAS BEEN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ALOFT.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE
SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS EXPECTED INDUCE A REDUCTION IN
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD BY
TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071216 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 64.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 64.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 17.7S 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 18.5S 61.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.0S 60.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 19.2S 58.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 64.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 160916Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS.
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S HAS BEEN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE ALOFT.
DESPITE THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALLOWED
THE STORM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 2.5/2.5 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFSETTING CONDITIONS
OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH TILL TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A
DECREASE IN AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL OVER TAKE THE SYSTEM AND RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER THE
WATER.
OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST
REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071217 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 63.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 63.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.2S 61.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.8S 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.1S 58.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.3S 56.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 62.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 162101Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CON-
VECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DE-
CREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, BUT THE STORM HAS ONLY MAINTAINED
INTENSITY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE AND HAS ALLOWED
THE STORM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OFFSETTING CONDITIONS OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND
THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE STORM AND RESULT
IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071217 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CELINA) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 61.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 61.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.5S 59.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.0S 57.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 22.2S 56.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 22.0S 54.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 60.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CELINA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 170958Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CON-
VECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED
FAVORABLE AND HAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFSETTING CONDITIONS OF FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TC STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A
DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL WEAKEN THE STORM AND RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20071218 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CELINA) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 20.6S 60.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 60.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 21.1S 58.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CELINA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172336Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
STORM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE, HOWEVER A DECREASE IN OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE STORM
AND RESULT IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER NEAR TAU 12.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORE-
CAST REASONING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_celina_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017