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Tropical Cyclone BONGWE : JTWC Advisories
Season 2007-2008 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone BONGWE Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20071117 22:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 6.3S 75.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 172130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.3S 75.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S
75.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3S 75.6E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A LARGE, SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
EASTERN QUADRANT. A 171703Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES STRENGTHENING
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM DIEGO GARCIA INDICATE SLP NEAR 1007MB WITH 2MB
24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE 171324Z QUIKSCAT SHOWS CROSS-
EQUATORIAL INFLOW AND ENHANCED WESTERLIES CONVERGING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES CONVERGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE
TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC AND CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 182230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071118 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221Z NOV 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 76.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 76.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 8.6S 77.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 9.1S 77.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 9.7S 77.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 10.3S 77.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 8.1S 76.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM KNES AND PGTW
AND A 180600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDI-
CATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S HAVE
REACHED 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 180530Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST BEGINNING AROUND TAU 36 AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAIL-
ABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS STRONG INTERACTION BETWEEN
TC 04S AND TC 03S TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT SEPARA-
TION DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES IS ABOUT 700 NM AND EXPECTED
TO DECREASE, BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE STRONGER SYSTEM OVER
TIME AND THE EFFECT OF A WEAKER TC 03S ON THE TRACK OF TC 04S
THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE OVER-EMPHASIZED IN THE CURRENT MODEL
FORECASTS. NOGAPS DEPICTS A CLEAR SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO
CIRCULATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALSO DEPICTS
TC 04S AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORE-
CAST IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 172221Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 172230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071118 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221Z NOV 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 8.8S 76.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 76.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 9.3S 76.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 9.9S 76.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 10.8S 76.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 11.7S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 76.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH A DEVLOPING CDO AND GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. AN 181645Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO FEATURE.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE SOUTHWARD
MOTION. TC 04S IS STILL TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NEAR TAU 48 TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STORM
ENCOUNTERS THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK BUT INDICATES A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST (NOGAPS) TO WEST-SOUTHWEST (EGRR).
THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON NOGAPS
POOR HANDLING OF TC 03S AND EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WHICH IS
PRODUCING AN ERRONEOUS EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK SUPPORTED BY THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT 10-15 KNOTS PER DAY BUT SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A FASTER
DEVELOPMENT RATE. IN PARTICULAR STIPS AND GFDN INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT PER DAY RATE. THE
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION RATE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
CONSENSUS AT TAU 36 AND 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 9.8S 76.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 76.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 10.7S 76.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 11.3S 76.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 11.9S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.6S 75.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 76.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES
AND FMEE AND A 190600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATE
SHOWING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 56 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN A
190514Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. TC 04S CONTINUES TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. A SUBTROPI-
CAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO EXERT AND INCREASING INFLU-
ENCE ON STORM MOTION, INCREASING THE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF STORM
MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REORIENT SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE
IN THE MID-LATITUDE PATTERN TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE CENTER MOVES UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND EXPERIENCES FAVORABLE MULTI-DIRECTIONAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUFFICIENT OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER SUPPORT THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND
200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (LEE-ARIEL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 10.6S 76.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 76.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 11.4S 76.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 12.1S 74.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.6S 73.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.3S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND
FMEE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS OF THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS
EVIDENT IN A 191514Z SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. TC 04S CONTINUES
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A PROGRESSIVELY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR TAU 48, ALLOWING A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 75.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 75.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 12.4S 74.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.9S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.4S 71.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.6S 70.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 74.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
THE STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NORTHEAST) TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
A TONGUE OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR (CIMSS TPW) IS APPROACHING THE CENTER
OF TC 04C, AND CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THEREFORE, A MORE CONSERVATIVE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS PROJECTED
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 73.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 73.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 13.2S 71.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.6S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 14.0S 68.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.1S 67.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 72.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE FOR TC 04S
IS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STORM.
TC 04S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR
THROUGH TAU 48. TC 04S WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND ENTRAINMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS FORECAST IS
SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 71.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 71.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 13.2S 70.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 13.4S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 13.6S 67.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 13.6S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 71.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A REGION
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A
TONGUE OF DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR (NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS) REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, AND SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL.
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIR AND LIMITED CONVECTION, ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED, AS TC 04S SHOULD REMAIN A 40- TO
50-KNOT SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 70.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 70.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 14.2S 69.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.4S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 14.5S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 14.5S 65.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A 211722Z METOP IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND A TIGHT CLUSTER
OF SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
BUT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF SOME DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR (NOTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS) WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM BUT NOT YET ENTRAINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
A 45-50 KNOT SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 70.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 70.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.1S 69.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 14.2S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 14.3S 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.3S 66.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 69.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0/3.0 FROM PGTW, 4.0/4.0 FROM KNES,
AND 4.0/4.0 FROM FMEE AND A 220600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND
ESTIMATE. TC 04S HAS ENTERED A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR MOVES EASTWARD AND
PREVENTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM
AND EXERTING A DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE UNTIL AFTER TAU 24. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING LOW, BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE SYSTEM
IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES ARE FORECAST TO BALANCE THE
FAVORABLE EFFECTS OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROCHING
LOW. THEREFORE, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 69.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 69.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 14.1S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 14.2S 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 14.3S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.4S 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 69.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221541Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWING A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 04S REMAINS IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR MOVES EASTWARD AND PREVENTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM AND EXERTING A DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE UNTIL AFTER TAU 24. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AHEAD
OF THIS APPROACHING LOW, BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND ENTRAINMENT
OF DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE SYSTEM IN RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES ARE FORECAST TO BALANCE THE FAVORABLE
EFFECTS OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROCHING LOW.
THEREFORE, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071123 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 68.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 68.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 13.6S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 13.7S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 14.0S 65.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 14.5S 63.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 68.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STORM POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 230327Z SSMIS
PASS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0/3.5
FROM PGTW AND 2.5/3.0 FROM FMEE AND A 230600Z CIRA MULTIPLATFORM
SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE WEST-
WARD UNDER THE STRENGTHENING STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING RIDGE
INFLUENCE PERSISTS. HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF
THE STORM, WHICH HAVE SHEARED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, ARE EX-
PECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48. THERE-
FORE, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WITH
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OCCURRING AROUND OR JUST AFTER TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20071123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BONGWE) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 67.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 67.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 12.8S 66.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 13.0S 65.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 67.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BONGWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 04S HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, LOSING MOST CONVECTION AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231754Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND
IS EVIDENT IN THE AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 17
FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_bongwe_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017