WTXS21 PGTW 20070729 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/290121ZJUL2007//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280221Z JUL 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 280230)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.8S 86.7E TO 13.5S 88.9E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
290000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.4S
87.1E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 7.4S 87.1E, APPROXIMATELY
870 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AND OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. A 282011Z AMSU IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 300130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070729 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290121Z JUL 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 11.0S 90.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 90.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 12.2S 90.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 13.6S 91.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 14.8S 91.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 90.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 290121Z JUL 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 290130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35
KNOTS AND ADDED INFORMATION IN THE REMARKS SECTION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070730 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 91.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 91.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 12.3S 92.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 13.2S 92.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 91.9E
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
WEST OF COCOS ISLAND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER 20 TO 25
KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED. TS 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-
EAST AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 10 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

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