WTPS21 PGTW 20070517 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED 170151Z MAY 07//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151Z MAY 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 11.0S 156.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 156.1E.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S
157.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 245NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER CONVECTION HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
CENTER AND HAS REMAINED SPORADIC IN NATURE. DESPITE THIS
FACT, THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DEVELOP-
MENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE
PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180200Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070517 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZMAY2007//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 155.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 155.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 11.0S 154.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 11.1S 153.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 11.4S 152.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 11.8S 152.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 155.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P (PIERRE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
170151ZMAY2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 170200)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070517 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 002
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 154.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 154.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 10.8S 153.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 10.9S 152.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 11.1S 151.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 11.3S 150.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 154.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P (PIERRE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS REMAINED A MINIMAL TC
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS WESTWARD IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH-
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 171452Z
AMSRE WATER VAPOR IMAGE INDICATE TC 24P IS TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD
A REGION OF RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR JUST SOUTH OF NEW
GUINEA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION OF THE TC.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070518 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TTROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 003//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160151Z MAY 07//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 152.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 152.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 11.2S 151.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 11.5S 150.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 11.7S 148.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 11.8S 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 152.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P (PIERRE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS
A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND A 180308Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDES A POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM.
HOWEVER, DRIER AIR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO OFFSET GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW ONLY MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070518 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TTROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (PIERRE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 10.4S 151.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 151.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.5S 149.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 10.6S 148.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24P (PIERRE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERIES OF THE DISSIPATING AND ELONGATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BEFORE TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_pierre_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]